ST公司盈余结构与股价联动性研究
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摘要
ST制度是我国的特有制度,一方面是给上市公司一个生存的机会,另一方面是为了保护投资人的利益,被ST的公司会通过各种途径扭亏为盈。因此,上市公司和投资者都应该关注收益的来源以及收益构成所占总收益的比例。这样才能够正确的把握ST公司真正的收益质量。本文提供的分析指标,可以帮助投资者正确分析ST公司的盈余质量,从而帮助其理性投资。
通过对新会计准则实施前后的盈余结构与盈余质量的对比,可以为政策制定者提供有关盈余管理的操纵手段与盈余管理存在程度的证据,为进一步加强对上市公司盈余管理的监管,提供建议。同时也促进管理层正确认识我国证券市场理性化程度的现状,了解投资者是否真正关心上市公司盈余质量,反省其原因;有利于引导投资者合理利用财务信息,引导资本合理流动与资源配置;还可以从根本上遏制假账,提高公众投资者对会计行业的信心。从而不断规范市场,使证券市场向着一个公开、公平、公正、理性化、富有效率的市场方向发展。
本文首先对当前盈余结构、ST公司的盈余管理和股价之间的关系方面的文献进行综述分析,对盈余结构进行分析,结合当前的制度背景和理论背景,进一步对ST公司的收益结构进行研究,在经营收益与非经营收益占净利润的比例不同的情况下,如何影响ST公司的股价,不同的收益来源,如何影响投资者的反应深入分析。接着对ST公司的盈余结构是否反映盈余质量、进而影响股价的变动方面进行理论分析并提出假设。
本文采用配比检验的方法,结合描述性统计分析,对实施新会计准则前后,ST公司经营性净利润占总的净利润的比例前后的变化进行了检验,发现前后变化明显,显著增加;采取相关分析和偏相关分析的方法,证明了资产减值损失和公允价值变动收益占营业利润的比例与股价的变动的无相关性;采取回归分析的方法,营业外收入占利润总额的比例与股价的变动反比例关系存在,但并不显著;主营业务利润占净利润的比例与股价的变动正比例关系,但并非十分显著。
在上述分析和实证基础上,从监管者的角度和制度建设方面、会计准则制定者和信息披露的角度、投资者角度和公司结构治理等几个方面针对ST公司盈余管理现象及其对股票价格的影响的角度,提出了建设性的建议:对于监管机构而言,在制订对于上市公司的监管政策时不应该只考虑简单的净利润指标,而是应该结合其他的因素;对于会计准则制定者来说,要进一步的规范会计准则的制定;对于投资者来说,要特别注意上市公司主营业务收入、经营活动现金流量、非经常性损益、营运资本变动、资产减值准备等项目的异常状况,并将其联系起来分析;针对ST上市公司治理结构方面,应加大内部治理结构的完善,充分发挥监事会和独立董事的监督作用,加快上市公司高管的职业化、专业化。
ST system is our specific system which gives a survival opportunity to listed companies and protect the investors’benefit.The ST company will do their best to turn losses into gains. Therefore,both listed companies and investors should pay much attention to the sources of income and the proportion of various income in total profit. It can help them realize the true income quality. This article can help the investors analyse the surplus quality of ST companies and invest rationally.
With the comparison of surplus structure and surplus quality,it can supply controlling metheod of surplus management and evidence of existing surplus management degrees to the policy makers.It gives good advice to the management on the supervision of listed companies and the actual situation of our securities market. It also gives good instruction to investors about how to use financial information and lead correct capital flows and resource distribution. It can also leads to an open ,fair,just,rational and efficient market.
This article gives a comprehensive analysis on the documents about the relationship among surplus structure, surplus management and stock value of ST company. Then it gives a analysis on present surplus structure. With present system and theory background, this article intends to give a study on surplus structure, the influence on stock value by different ratios of operation income and non-operation income in net profits and the study on the influence of different income sources on investors.Then, it gives theoretical analysis and hypothesis on the influence of surplus structure on surplus quality and stock value.
With balance checking and descriptive statistic analysis, it gives a result that apparent changes happened on the ratio of operation income in net profits with new accounting standards. With correlation and partial correlation analysis, it gives a result that asset impairment losses and changes in fair value are non-corralation with changes of stock value. With regression analysis, it is found that there is inverse proportion relaiotnship between the ratio of non-operation income in profits and the change of stock value, but not apparent and proportion relaiotnship between the ratio of operation income and the change of stock value.
With above analysis and demonstration, regarding supervision and system construction, accounting standards and information release, investment and company structure, this article gives a constructive advice on surplus management and its influence on stock value of ST company. This article gives constructive advices. For regulatory authorities,net profit should not be the only item to consider,but also other items.For accounting rule makers,rules shuld be standardized.For investors,the operation income,cash flow, extraordinary profit or loss,the change of operating capital and preparation of assets deduction should be observed. For listed companies,they should improve their internal governance structure and push their senior managers to be professional and specialized.
通过对新会计准则实施前后的盈余结构与盈余质量的对比,可以为政策制定者提供有关盈余管理的操纵手段与盈余管理存在程度的证据,为进一步加强对上市公司盈余管理的监管,提供建议。同时也促进管理层正确认识我国证券市场理性化程度的现状,了解投资者是否真正关心上市公司盈余质量,反省其原因;有利于引导投资者合理利用财务信息,引导资本合理流动与资源配置;还可以从根本上遏制假账,提高公众投资者对会计行业的信心。从而不断规范市场,使证券市场向着一个公开、公平、公正、理性化、富有效率的市场方向发展。
本文首先对当前盈余结构、ST公司的盈余管理和股价之间的关系方面的文献进行综述分析,对盈余结构进行分析,结合当前的制度背景和理论背景,进一步对ST公司的收益结构进行研究,在经营收益与非经营收益占净利润的比例不同的情况下,如何影响ST公司的股价,不同的收益来源,如何影响投资者的反应深入分析。接着对ST公司的盈余结构是否反映盈余质量、进而影响股价的变动方面进行理论分析并提出假设。
本文采用配比检验的方法,结合描述性统计分析,对实施新会计准则前后,ST公司经营性净利润占总的净利润的比例前后的变化进行了检验,发现前后变化明显,显著增加;采取相关分析和偏相关分析的方法,证明了资产减值损失和公允价值变动收益占营业利润的比例与股价的变动的无相关性;采取回归分析的方法,营业外收入占利润总额的比例与股价的变动反比例关系存在,但并不显著;主营业务利润占净利润的比例与股价的变动正比例关系,但并非十分显著。
在上述分析和实证基础上,从监管者的角度和制度建设方面、会计准则制定者和信息披露的角度、投资者角度和公司结构治理等几个方面针对ST公司盈余管理现象及其对股票价格的影响的角度,提出了建设性的建议:对于监管机构而言,在制订对于上市公司的监管政策时不应该只考虑简单的净利润指标,而是应该结合其他的因素;对于会计准则制定者来说,要进一步的规范会计准则的制定;对于投资者来说,要特别注意上市公司主营业务收入、经营活动现金流量、非经常性损益、营运资本变动、资产减值准备等项目的异常状况,并将其联系起来分析;针对ST上市公司治理结构方面,应加大内部治理结构的完善,充分发挥监事会和独立董事的监督作用,加快上市公司高管的职业化、专业化。
ST system is our specific system which gives a survival opportunity to listed companies and protect the investors’benefit.The ST company will do their best to turn losses into gains. Therefore,both listed companies and investors should pay much attention to the sources of income and the proportion of various income in total profit. It can help them realize the true income quality. This article can help the investors analyse the surplus quality of ST companies and invest rationally.
With the comparison of surplus structure and surplus quality,it can supply controlling metheod of surplus management and evidence of existing surplus management degrees to the policy makers.It gives good advice to the management on the supervision of listed companies and the actual situation of our securities market. It also gives good instruction to investors about how to use financial information and lead correct capital flows and resource distribution. It can also leads to an open ,fair,just,rational and efficient market.
This article gives a comprehensive analysis on the documents about the relationship among surplus structure, surplus management and stock value of ST company. Then it gives a analysis on present surplus structure. With present system and theory background, this article intends to give a study on surplus structure, the influence on stock value by different ratios of operation income and non-operation income in net profits and the study on the influence of different income sources on investors.Then, it gives theoretical analysis and hypothesis on the influence of surplus structure on surplus quality and stock value.
With balance checking and descriptive statistic analysis, it gives a result that apparent changes happened on the ratio of operation income in net profits with new accounting standards. With correlation and partial correlation analysis, it gives a result that asset impairment losses and changes in fair value are non-corralation with changes of stock value. With regression analysis, it is found that there is inverse proportion relaiotnship between the ratio of non-operation income in profits and the change of stock value, but not apparent and proportion relaiotnship between the ratio of operation income and the change of stock value.
With above analysis and demonstration, regarding supervision and system construction, accounting standards and information release, investment and company structure, this article gives a constructive advice on surplus management and its influence on stock value of ST company. This article gives constructive advices. For regulatory authorities,net profit should not be the only item to consider,but also other items.For accounting rule makers,rules shuld be standardized.For investors,the operation income,cash flow, extraordinary profit or loss,the change of operating capital and preparation of assets deduction should be observed. For listed companies,they should improve their internal governance structure and push their senior managers to be professional and specialized.
引文
3中国上市公司盈余结构的业绩分析能力程小可2005
4我国ST上市公司盈余管理和盈余质量分析张小泉2008
[1]李哲,何佳.支持、重组与ST公司的“摘帽”之路.南开经济评论,2006,9(6):23~28
[2]李艳玲,钱锐.新会计准则对ST公司摘帽方式的影响研究.会计之友,2008,3(上):38~44
[3]杜勇.亏损属性、会计盈余与股票价格.华东经济管理,2008,4:39~45
[4]王毓彬.我国上市公司盈余管理实证研究综述.现代管理科学,2004,8:35~40
[5]黄素心.ST公布和ST撤销事件的市场反应研究—来自沪深股市的实证检验.华中科技大学学报,2005,8:72~76
[6]赵国忠.ST公司财务特征分析.金融与财会,2008,1(6):23~28
[7]戴娜.ST公司的资产重组和盈余管理.证券市场导报,2002,1:83~86
[8]史玉光.ST公司非经常性损益与退市制度分析.国际商务财会,2009,5:45~48
[9]杨磊.ST公司股价表现的实证研究.武汉大学学报,2005,5:63~65
[10]曹椿苗.ST公司利用非经常性损益调节利润问题研究.暨南大学学报,2007,5:55~61
[11]吕长江、赵宇恒.ST公司生命轨迹的实证分析.经济管理.新管理,2006,2:81~84
[12]赵宇恒.ST公司生命线分析.吉林大学学报,2004,5:25~28
[13]杨洪跃.公司收益质量分析.财经.金融,2003,5:113~116
[14]张劲松,赵路明.ST公司盈余管理的特点与监管.哈尔滨商业大学学报(社会科学版),2006,5:23~28
[15]赵路明.ST公司有效利用盈余管理的实证研究.黑龙江科技信息,2006,7:63~66
[16]吕长江,赵宇恒.ST公司重组的生存分析.财经问题研究,2007,6:91~95
[17]康远志.ST公司重组绩效的事件收益研究.广东水利电力职业技术学院学报,2009,7:47~50
[18]袁振兴,高志谦,杨淑娥.ST股票涨跌与大盘指数涨跌关系之实证研究.经济管理,2007,4:106~110
[19]吴忠群,任志宏.ST类股票价格对公司财务状况的反应.经济与管理研究,2002,6:31~34
[20]李芸达,王琴,张芳芳,等.ST上市公司财务指标的实证分析.财会通讯,2005,8:61~68
[21]赵国忠.撤销特别处理公司财务状况分析——基于2005—2007年ST公司会计报表项目.北京市经济管理干部学院学报,2009,4:55~60
[22]孟焰,袁淳,吴溪.非经常性损益、监管制度化与ST公司摘帽的市场反应.管理世界,2008,8:77~80
[23]郭鹅飞,杨朝军.公司业绩与股价收益:基于行业特征的实证分析.证券市场导报,2003,7:95~98
[24]陈炳辉,黄文锋.股票价格与会计盈余关系研究.南方金融,2005,4:77~82
[25]杨薇,王伶.关于ST公司扭亏的分析.财政研究,2002,4:101~105
[26]黄友,曾力.会计信息与亏损公司股价---来自沪深两市的经验证据.财政研究,2008,4:44~48
[27]袁淳,王平.会计盈余质量与价值相关性:来自深市的经验证据.经济理论与经济管理,2005,5:13~18
[28]余江.亏损上市公司利用资产减值准备进行盈余管理的实证研究.东南大学学报,2005,3:125~128
[29]李勤.亏损上市公司盈余管理手段的实证研究.广东农工商职业技术学院学报,2005,3:25~29
[30]李洪源.我国上市公司业绩与股票价格之间关系的实证研究.经济问题探索,2005,9:77~80
[31]赵选民,陈岳芬.中国亏损上市公司利用会计政策变更扭亏研究.广东财经职业学院学报,2006,8:91~95
[32]姜媛媛.新准则实施对ST公司资产组的影响.江苏大学学报,2007,12:67~70
[33]林敏.我国上市公司盈余质量与股价关系的实证分析.四川大学学报,2004,3:55~58
[34]黄文锋.会计政策信号显示功能研究.四川会计学报,2003,(8) :98~102
[35]Shin,H.S.,2006,“Disclosure risk and price drift”,Journal of Accounting Research 44:351-379
[36]Chordia,T.,Shivakumar,L.,2002,“Momentum,business cycle and time-varying expected returns”, Journal of Finance 57:985-1107
[37]Chordia,T.,Shivakumar,L.,2006,“Earnings and price momentum”, Journal of Financial Economics 80:627-65
[38]Bernard,V.,Thomas,J.K.,1989,“Evidence that stock price do not reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings”,Journal of Accounting and Economics 13:305-340
4我国ST上市公司盈余管理和盈余质量分析张小泉2008
[1]李哲,何佳.支持、重组与ST公司的“摘帽”之路.南开经济评论,2006,9(6):23~28
[2]李艳玲,钱锐.新会计准则对ST公司摘帽方式的影响研究.会计之友,2008,3(上):38~44
[3]杜勇.亏损属性、会计盈余与股票价格.华东经济管理,2008,4:39~45
[4]王毓彬.我国上市公司盈余管理实证研究综述.现代管理科学,2004,8:35~40
[5]黄素心.ST公布和ST撤销事件的市场反应研究—来自沪深股市的实证检验.华中科技大学学报,2005,8:72~76
[6]赵国忠.ST公司财务特征分析.金融与财会,2008,1(6):23~28
[7]戴娜.ST公司的资产重组和盈余管理.证券市场导报,2002,1:83~86
[8]史玉光.ST公司非经常性损益与退市制度分析.国际商务财会,2009,5:45~48
[9]杨磊.ST公司股价表现的实证研究.武汉大学学报,2005,5:63~65
[10]曹椿苗.ST公司利用非经常性损益调节利润问题研究.暨南大学学报,2007,5:55~61
[11]吕长江、赵宇恒.ST公司生命轨迹的实证分析.经济管理.新管理,2006,2:81~84
[12]赵宇恒.ST公司生命线分析.吉林大学学报,2004,5:25~28
[13]杨洪跃.公司收益质量分析.财经.金融,2003,5:113~116
[14]张劲松,赵路明.ST公司盈余管理的特点与监管.哈尔滨商业大学学报(社会科学版),2006,5:23~28
[15]赵路明.ST公司有效利用盈余管理的实证研究.黑龙江科技信息,2006,7:63~66
[16]吕长江,赵宇恒.ST公司重组的生存分析.财经问题研究,2007,6:91~95
[17]康远志.ST公司重组绩效的事件收益研究.广东水利电力职业技术学院学报,2009,7:47~50
[18]袁振兴,高志谦,杨淑娥.ST股票涨跌与大盘指数涨跌关系之实证研究.经济管理,2007,4:106~110
[19]吴忠群,任志宏.ST类股票价格对公司财务状况的反应.经济与管理研究,2002,6:31~34
[20]李芸达,王琴,张芳芳,等.ST上市公司财务指标的实证分析.财会通讯,2005,8:61~68
[21]赵国忠.撤销特别处理公司财务状况分析——基于2005—2007年ST公司会计报表项目.北京市经济管理干部学院学报,2009,4:55~60
[22]孟焰,袁淳,吴溪.非经常性损益、监管制度化与ST公司摘帽的市场反应.管理世界,2008,8:77~80
[23]郭鹅飞,杨朝军.公司业绩与股价收益:基于行业特征的实证分析.证券市场导报,2003,7:95~98
[24]陈炳辉,黄文锋.股票价格与会计盈余关系研究.南方金融,2005,4:77~82
[25]杨薇,王伶.关于ST公司扭亏的分析.财政研究,2002,4:101~105
[26]黄友,曾力.会计信息与亏损公司股价---来自沪深两市的经验证据.财政研究,2008,4:44~48
[27]袁淳,王平.会计盈余质量与价值相关性:来自深市的经验证据.经济理论与经济管理,2005,5:13~18
[28]余江.亏损上市公司利用资产减值准备进行盈余管理的实证研究.东南大学学报,2005,3:125~128
[29]李勤.亏损上市公司盈余管理手段的实证研究.广东农工商职业技术学院学报,2005,3:25~29
[30]李洪源.我国上市公司业绩与股票价格之间关系的实证研究.经济问题探索,2005,9:77~80
[31]赵选民,陈岳芬.中国亏损上市公司利用会计政策变更扭亏研究.广东财经职业学院学报,2006,8:91~95
[32]姜媛媛.新准则实施对ST公司资产组的影响.江苏大学学报,2007,12:67~70
[33]林敏.我国上市公司盈余质量与股价关系的实证分析.四川大学学报,2004,3:55~58
[34]黄文锋.会计政策信号显示功能研究.四川会计学报,2003,(8) :98~102
[35]Shin,H.S.,2006,“Disclosure risk and price drift”,Journal of Accounting Research 44:351-379
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