上市公司财务质量评价的实证研究
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摘要
我国的资本市场从设立至今已经有十多年的发展历程。十几年间,上市公司的数量从最初的十几家发展壮大到今天的一千多家。巨大的市场在为众多企业提供了广阔的筹资空间的同时也给上市公司提供了一个展示自身魅力的舞台,这个魅力就来自于上市公司财务质量。资本市场上公司股票价格的潮起潮落、变幻莫测,实际上是市场和投资者对上市公司的资产管理和运用质量、债务风险和偿债能力、盈利能力和盈利质量、资本扩张性和公司发展潜力的描述和评价的一种直观反映。上市公司股票价格的变动当然会受到国际和国内经济和政治形势、国家宏观政策法规、行业走向、单个企业的重大利好等多种因素的影响,但其中最重要的因素之一就是公司的财务质量。理性的资本市场股票价格的波动与公司财务质量必然是呈正相关关系。目前,随着资本市场的扩容增速,大量的企业涌入资本市场,虽然上市公司多数都是行业中的优秀代表,但是市场经济的经营法则,优胜劣汰的竞争机制导致上市公司上市后财务质量状况良莠不齐,有些甚至差别较大。公司的财务质量集中反映上市公司的发展状况,因此,对上市公司的财务质量状况进行客观的分析与评价,对于更好地把握上市公司的发展趋势,寻找改善和提升上市公司财务质量的策略,具有极其重要的理论意义和现实意义。
     我国是一个农业大国,农村人口的数量占全国人口数量的75%左右,调整农业生产结构、加强农村基础设施建设和增加农村劳动力就业、增加农民收入的“三农”问题多年来一直是党和政府的工作重心之一。推动农业企业产业化、规模化经营,做大做强农业企业,把更多的农业龙头企业经股份制改造推向市场,是解决“三农”问题的重要举措。然而,由于行业的自身特点和弱质性特征以及经营环境等因素导致农业上市公司的盈利能力和资产质量较低等一系列问题,在相当大程度上影响了农业上市公司的持续发展。因此,通过客观分析和评价农业这一关系国计民生的重要行业的上市公司的财务质量状况,发现影响农业上市公司财务质量的主要因素,提出更有建设性扶持农业上市公司快速发展的政策建议,也是具有重要现实意义的一件事情。
     本课题的研究以上市公司财务质量评价的基本理论为基础,按照财务质量评价的基本框架,通过利用主要财务指标一般对比分析和因子分析法对上市公司的财务质量进行客观地评价。从因子得分出发,采用对比分析、回归分析、均值分析和案例结合分析,对上市公司的财务质量及其影响的主要因素进行逐一探究。同时,2007年正逢新会计准则执行元年,在分析评价中,将新会计准则的实施对于上市公司特别是农业行业上市公司财务质量产生的影响进行案例分析。在对上市公司整体和农业上市公司进行财务质量的因子分析的基础上,进一步分析研究我国资本市场的股票价格及其变动与上市公司的财务质量之间的相关关系。最后,基于上述的分析和评价结果得出基本的研究结论并提出有利于改善和提高上市公司财务质量的对策建议。全文的主要内容包括以下六个部分:
     第一章,导论。在对论文选题的背景和意义进行简要介绍的基础上,简要描述了本文研究的理论基础,明确了本文的研究目的与方法,对相关研究文献进行综述,对本文研究的思路、内容结构以及创新予以概括性描述。
     第二章,上市公司财务质量评价的基本理论问题。本章研究的内容,既是专门的理论问题,又是后面几章展开的基础。本章首先是对财务质量的概念及其内在特征作出界定,分别分析了财务质量的各类相关利益者的需求,在归纳分析了财务质量的构成要素的基础上,理清了表达公司财务质量的财务指标体系,分析讨论了组织财务质量评价的适宜的方法。
     第三章,上市公司整体财务质量的综合评价。主要对上市公司财务质量状况的主要指标进行统计描述和分析,以上市公司公开披露的财务数据为依据,在对上市公司主要财务指标进行一般对比分析基础上,对选择的样本公司2006年财务质量状况进行因子分析及对影响综合质量的主因子进行分析;基于2007年新会计准则执行的背景下,对上市公司财务质量发生的变化进行因子分析,将两种会计政策环境下的样本公司的财务质量进行对比分析,最后分析总结上市公司财务质量变化的情况并进行原因剖析。
     第四章,农业类上市公司财务质量综合评价。在对农业上市公司进行界定的基础上,介绍了农业上市公司的产生发展历程,以便于后续内容的理解。本章同样先使用主要财务指标进行一般对比分析,然后用因子分析法对农业类上市公司在过去的三年间(2004-2006)财务质量分析评价,对行业的重点上市公司进行案例分析,以便更准确地得出分析评价的结论。此外,本章还对新会计准则---生物资产准则实施对上市公司财务质量的影响进行了理论与实证分析。
     第五章,上市公司财务质量与股价的相关性分析。基于样本公司的财务质量综合得分和诸因子得分,进行Spearman检验上市公司的股票价格与上市公司财务质量及其诸因子之间的相关关系及变化趋势,阐释我国资本市场的股票价格与公司财务质量之间的相关程度,并进行原因分析。
     第六章,主要结论与建议。依据上述分析研究与结果,本章得出的主要结论是:1、总体上看,我国上市公司的财务质量近年来一直处于不断提升的通道之中;2、上市公司的财务质量存在多样化的群体差异性;3、无论是从总体上看还是从个体上看,上市公司财务质量仍然有待于进一步提高;4、导致我国上市公司形成目前这样的财务质量,原因是多方面的;5、农业类上市公司情况总体上并不理想,但发展势头值得预期;6、总体看来,上市公司的财务质量与其股票价格呈正相关关系的。笔者提出若干对策建议:1、充分认识提高财务质量的重要性;2、抓住体制、机制的改革与完善,解决提高公司财务质量的原动力;3、做大做强主营业务,依托主业的发展壮大提高公司的财务质量;4、努力抓好创新,依靠产品创新和管理创新提高企业的核心竞争力;5、继续加大对农业企业特别是农业上市公司的扶持力度,真正发挥其在社会主义新农村建设中的龙头带动作用;6、加强投资者教育,提高投资者素质,建设成熟稳定的证券市场。
It has been more than ten years since our country set up the capital market. During these years, the number of the listed company has soared to more than one thousand from several at first. This giant market offers spacious room for money-collecting, and, at the same time, gives listed companies the stage for them to demonstrate their charm, which come from their financial quality. Investor’s description and appraisal of asset management and utilization quality, debt risk and credit capacity, profit ability and profit quality, and capital expanding and corporate growth potential is directly reflected by the fluctuation of the stock price. Such factors as domestic and international economic and political situations, the country’s macroscopic policies and regulations, business trends, single corporation’s significant profits and one of the most important factors, financial quality have definitely influenced the stock price of the listed company. The price grows when the financial quality is better. At present, as the capital market expands and speeds, a great number of companies crowd into it. Although most listed companies are excellent representatives of their businesses, the working rule of market economy, which is the competition mechanism of the superior winning and the inferior washing, leads to the different financial qualities, and some of the differences are even big. Company's financial quality can reflect their development condition. Therefore, carrying on the objective analysis and the appraisal of their financial quality condition has the extremely profound theoretic and practical meaning of grasping the listed company's development trend, and seeking for the strategy of improving and the promoting their financial quality.
     Our country is also a large agricultural nation, and rural population accounts for 75% of the overall population. To adjusting the structure of agricultural production, to strengthen the countryside infrastructural facilities and increase the rural labor force employment, to increase the farmers' income, has been one of the party and government's work centers. Pushing agricultural enterprise to form an industry and certain size, to grow strongly and greatly, and more leading ones to enter the market after the joint stock transformation, are the important actions of solving the“Three Agriculture”problem. However, the series of problems of low profit capacity and property quality caused by the business’s own characteristics, weaknesses as well as the management environment, have affected the listed companies' sustained development to a large degree. Thus, analyzing objectively and appraising the financial quality condition of the listed companies of agriculture, which is an important area which relates to our nation’s thriving and our people's surviving, discovering the primary factors that influence the finance quality of agricultural listed companies, proposing constructive policy to support the development of agricultural listed companies, is a vital practical thing.
     This research bases on the elementary theories and the framework of rating of listed company’s financial quality, and evaluates objectively the listed company’s financial quality by general contrasting the major financial indicators and analyzing the factors (that is principal components analytic method and so on). I embark on the factor score, use the contrastive analysis, the regression analysis, the average value analysis and the case analysis, and inquire into the listed company's financial quality and the primary factors one by one. At the same time, 2007 was the first year of executing the new accounting standards. In addition to the analysis and appraisal, I will carry on the case analysis of the influence of the new accounting standards on the financial quality of the listed company, especially the agricultural listed company. On the basis of factorial analysis of the financial quality of the listed companies as a whole and the agricultural listed ones, I will further study stock price on our country’s capital market and the co relational dependence between the price change and financial quality. Finally, I will draw the basic research conclusion based on the above analysis and evaluation and propose suggestion that will facilitate the improvement and the enhancement of the listed company’s financial quality. This essay primarily contains the following six parts:
     ChapterⅠ: introduction. On the basis of the brief introduction of the background and the significance of selecting this topic, I will briefly describe the theoretical basis of this paper, clarify the research goal and the method of this essay, summarize the relevant research literature, and describe concisely the train of my thought, the content structure of this article, innovations and weaknesses.
     ChapterⅡ: the elementary theoretic question of the evaluation of the financial quality of listed company. This content of this chapter, is special theoretical question, and the foundation which the following several chapters launch as well. This chapter first defines the concept and the interior characteristic of financial quality. We will analyze the demand of each kind of related benefit who concerns about the financial quality separately. Basing on the analysis of all components of the financial quality, we cleared off the financial norm system, more over; we discussed the proper method of commenting the financial quality.
     ChapterⅢ: the comprehensive evaluation of listed company’s overall financial quality. I will statistically describe and analyze major indicators of the listed company’s financial quality condition, take the listed company’s financial data, which has been disclosed publicly, as the basis, base on the general contrast and analysis of the major financial indicator’s of the listed company, and analyze the factors and the main factors, which influence overall quality, of the year 2006’s financial quality condition of the sample company; I will analyze the factors that cause the change of financial quality under the background of 2007, in which year the new accounting standards had been executed, compare the financial qualities of the sample company in these two kinds of accounting policy environment, and, at last, analyze and summarize the changes of listed company’s financial quality and their reason.
     ChapterⅣ: the comprehensive evaluation of agricultural listed company’s finance quality. On the base of definition of agricultural listed company, I will introduce the birth and development process of agricultural listed company to help with the understanding of the following content. This chapter also uses the major financial indicators to carry on the general contrast and analysis, evaluate the agricultural listed company’s financial quality during the last three year (2004-2006) with the analyzing-factor method, and analyze the cases of the key listed companies, with the purpose of obtaining the accurate the conclusion. In addition, this chapter will also carry on the theoretical and the empirical analysis of the influence of execution of the new accounting standards ---The biological property standards on the financial quality of listed company.
     ChapterⅤ: relevant analysis of listed company’s financial quality and stock price. Basing on the comprehensive score and various factor score of the sample company's financial quality, I will carry on the Spearman to examine the listed company's stock price, financial quality, the co relational dependence and the tendency of the two, explain the relativity between the stock price and the corporate financial quality in our country’s capital market, and carry on the reason analysis.
     ChapterⅥ: main conclusion and suggestion. Based on the above research and the result, the main conclusion this chapter obtains are: 1st, generally speaking, our country listed company's financial quality has been on recent years the way of improving unceasingly; 2nd, diversified community differences exist in the listed company's financial quality; 3rd, regardless of being generally speaking or looked from the individual, listed company’s financial quality should still be subject for further enhancements; 4th, the reasons causes our country’s listed company to form the present financial quality are various; 5th, the situation of agricultural listed company, as a whole, is not ideal, but the development is worth anticipating; 6th, overall, the listed company's stock price rises when it’s financial quality is better. The author proposed certain countermeasures and suggestion: 1st, the importance of full understanding of improving the financial quality; 2nd, we should reform and consummate the system and the mechanism, which is the impetus to solute and improve the corporate financial quality; 3rd, we should develop main business, thus improve company's financial quality; 4th, we should pay special attention to innovation, and rely on the product innovation and the management innovation to enhance enterprise's core competitiveness; 5th, we should continue to increase the force to support agricultural enterprises, especially listed ones, is agriculture, allowing them to truly display their lead role in the socialist new rural reconstructions; 6th, we should strengthen the education of investors , improve the quality of investors, and build mature and stable stock market.
引文
1笔者认为,收益质量与盈利质量、利润质量、盈余质量等说法没有实质差别,后文中在不同的段落叫法可能不同,完全是遵从不同的作者在原文中的用法。
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