我国贸易自由化的就业和工资效应研究
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摘要
贸易自由化是一个生产和利益重新分配的过程,对外贸易通过进出口商品数量和价格的变动对一国要素市场产生影响。制造业是我国外向程度最高的产业部门,贸易自由化进程中,我国制成品贸易规模和结构的变动正在对我国制造业整体和不同技能劳动者的就业和工资产生明显的影响。
我国是劳动力资源,尤其是非熟练劳动力资源充裕的国家,按照新古典斯托尔帕-萨缪尔森定理(S-S定理),对外贸易的增长将使我国充裕要素劳动者的相对工资趋于上升,但我国实际经济并不符合新古典假定,因此S-S定理在我国的表现形式也发生了变动。从改革开放以来我国制造业劳动者就业和工资的变动中可以看到,由于失业以及劳动要素供给增长过快等原因,制成品贸易的扩张对我国制造业就业增长的促进作用较为明显,而对劳动者相对工资的影响却十分有限。对制造业细分行业的分析也表明,贸易自由化主要影响到了不同技能劳动者的就业,对不同技能劳动者相对工资的影响则较弱。
如果将劳动者看作一个整体,其福利水平的变动由相对就业和相对工资共同决定,因而劳动者工资总收入占行业产出或增加值的比例(简称“劳动者收入比例”)可以更综合地反映劳动者相对收入的变动情况。为了了解贸易自由化对我国制造业整体以及不同技能劳动者相对收入的真实影响,本文以劳动者收入比例作为研究对象展开实证检验。考虑到实际经济中生产者会根据要素价格的变动调整其投入量,本文在进出口商品长期成本函数的基础上构建实证检验方程,以劳动者收入比例为决定变量,以贸易自由化进程中进出口贸易、各类投入要素的价格以及各类结构性因素作为解释变量,从实证角度对贸易自由化与制造业劳动者整体和不同技能劳动者收入比例之间的相关性进行了分析。
实证检验结果表明,贸易自由化进程中,制成品贸易总额及制成品进出口贸易的扩大都对劳动者收入比例的提高都起到了积极的推动作用,其中出口的作用更为明显,并且贸易自由化对劳动者相对收入的推动作用主要以就业增长形式实现。对不同技能劳动者收入比例的实证检验结果也表明,不同技术行业进出口贸易的增长对所在行业劳动者收入比例的提高产生了积极的影响,并且在非熟练劳动密集的低技术行业,这一促进作用更为明显。
Trade liberalization is a reallocation process of product and profit. Foreign trade influences the factor market through the amount and price of the goods of import and export. During the period of trade liberalization, the value and structure of the foreign trade in China has been improved greatly, which has played a vital important effect on the employment and wage ratio of workers in the manufacture sector.
According to the Stolper-Samuelson theorem, free trade will improve the relative revenue of abundant factor. As a labor-abundant, especially unskilled-labor-abundant country, foreign trade will increase the relative wage of workers, especially unskilled workers in our country. Nevertheless, the fact of our economy does not fit the hypothesis of S-S theorem, so the influence of foreign trade has been altered. The growth of manufacture trade promoted the employment obviously, while did little to the improvement of wage ratio due to the huge unemployment and quick-increase labor supply.
When regarded as a whole, the total welfare of labor force is decided by both the relative wage ratio and employment. Thus, the percent of total wage of Gross Domestic Product (called the percent of labor revenue) can reflect the welfare change of workers more accurately.
In order to discern the influence of trade liberalization on the welfare of total and different skilled workers in manufacture sector, I focus on the percent of labor revenue and spread it in tow level. First, I analyze the relationship between the percent of labor revenue of total workers in manufacture and the trade liberalization, using the time-series data form 1980-2005; Second, I do the same analysis using the panel data of 22 branch industry of manufacture sector during 2001-2006.
Considering the producers will adjust the inputs according their prices, I construct an empirical formula based on the long-cost function. Take the percent of labor revenue as the dependent variable, while the trade amount, the price of factor and some structure variable as explanation variable.
The result of empirical study shows that the expanding of import and export of manufacture played a positive influence on the increase of the percent of labor revenue. Among which, the influence of export was more obviously. Further more, the positive influence of trade expressed mainly through the expanding of employment. The study on the different skilled workers obtained the same result: The expansion of trade of different-technology product played positive influence on the percent of labor revenue of different skilled workers and it's more obviously in the low technical industry (unskilled labor intensive industry).
我国是劳动力资源,尤其是非熟练劳动力资源充裕的国家,按照新古典斯托尔帕-萨缪尔森定理(S-S定理),对外贸易的增长将使我国充裕要素劳动者的相对工资趋于上升,但我国实际经济并不符合新古典假定,因此S-S定理在我国的表现形式也发生了变动。从改革开放以来我国制造业劳动者就业和工资的变动中可以看到,由于失业以及劳动要素供给增长过快等原因,制成品贸易的扩张对我国制造业就业增长的促进作用较为明显,而对劳动者相对工资的影响却十分有限。对制造业细分行业的分析也表明,贸易自由化主要影响到了不同技能劳动者的就业,对不同技能劳动者相对工资的影响则较弱。
如果将劳动者看作一个整体,其福利水平的变动由相对就业和相对工资共同决定,因而劳动者工资总收入占行业产出或增加值的比例(简称“劳动者收入比例”)可以更综合地反映劳动者相对收入的变动情况。为了了解贸易自由化对我国制造业整体以及不同技能劳动者相对收入的真实影响,本文以劳动者收入比例作为研究对象展开实证检验。考虑到实际经济中生产者会根据要素价格的变动调整其投入量,本文在进出口商品长期成本函数的基础上构建实证检验方程,以劳动者收入比例为决定变量,以贸易自由化进程中进出口贸易、各类投入要素的价格以及各类结构性因素作为解释变量,从实证角度对贸易自由化与制造业劳动者整体和不同技能劳动者收入比例之间的相关性进行了分析。
实证检验结果表明,贸易自由化进程中,制成品贸易总额及制成品进出口贸易的扩大都对劳动者收入比例的提高都起到了积极的推动作用,其中出口的作用更为明显,并且贸易自由化对劳动者相对收入的推动作用主要以就业增长形式实现。对不同技能劳动者收入比例的实证检验结果也表明,不同技术行业进出口贸易的增长对所在行业劳动者收入比例的提高产生了积极的影响,并且在非熟练劳动密集的低技术行业,这一促进作用更为明显。
Trade liberalization is a reallocation process of product and profit. Foreign trade influences the factor market through the amount and price of the goods of import and export. During the period of trade liberalization, the value and structure of the foreign trade in China has been improved greatly, which has played a vital important effect on the employment and wage ratio of workers in the manufacture sector.
According to the Stolper-Samuelson theorem, free trade will improve the relative revenue of abundant factor. As a labor-abundant, especially unskilled-labor-abundant country, foreign trade will increase the relative wage of workers, especially unskilled workers in our country. Nevertheless, the fact of our economy does not fit the hypothesis of S-S theorem, so the influence of foreign trade has been altered. The growth of manufacture trade promoted the employment obviously, while did little to the improvement of wage ratio due to the huge unemployment and quick-increase labor supply.
When regarded as a whole, the total welfare of labor force is decided by both the relative wage ratio and employment. Thus, the percent of total wage of Gross Domestic Product (called the percent of labor revenue) can reflect the welfare change of workers more accurately.
In order to discern the influence of trade liberalization on the welfare of total and different skilled workers in manufacture sector, I focus on the percent of labor revenue and spread it in tow level. First, I analyze the relationship between the percent of labor revenue of total workers in manufacture and the trade liberalization, using the time-series data form 1980-2005; Second, I do the same analysis using the panel data of 22 branch industry of manufacture sector during 2001-2006.
Considering the producers will adjust the inputs according their prices, I construct an empirical formula based on the long-cost function. Take the percent of labor revenue as the dependent variable, while the trade amount, the price of factor and some structure variable as explanation variable.
The result of empirical study shows that the expanding of import and export of manufacture played a positive influence on the increase of the percent of labor revenue. Among which, the influence of export was more obviously. Further more, the positive influence of trade expressed mainly through the expanding of employment. The study on the different skilled workers obtained the same result: The expansion of trade of different-technology product played positive influence on the percent of labor revenue of different skilled workers and it's more obviously in the low technical industry (unskilled labor intensive industry).
引文
1 罗伯特逊1937年提出了对外贸易足“经济增长发动机”(Engine for Growth) 的命题。
2 Stolper,W.F.,and Samuelson,P.A.(1941),"Protection and Real Wages," Review of Economic Study,9,P58-73。
3 详见 Feenstra,Robert C.and Gordon H.Hanson(1996,1999,2001,2003)的研究。
4 巴格瓦蒂认为,尽管《国富论》出版以米,每一代经济学家中的大部分都赞成斯密-李嘉图关于专业化分工获得贸易收益的观点,以及与此相关的自由贸易最优性的论证,但广大民众却很少认同这一观点。原因是人们在面对变化时产生的错觉,即人们只关注贸易造成的成本如工作机会的减少,却忽略了贸易带来的收益如新的就业机会。而来自学界内部的反对者则以市场失灵或市场扭曲为理由反对自由贸易。参见:巴格瓦蒂,《今日自由贸易》,中国人民大学出版社,2004年,第2-3页和第8页。
5 David Ricardo,On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation,1817;edited by P.Sraffa,London 1951
6 新古典贸易理论的有关结论是在严格的前提假定下得到的:(1)两国、两商品、两要素;(2)生产函数具有可变要素比例且规模报酬不变;(3)劳动和资本要素总量既定;(4)产品和要素市场完全竞争,均具有充分的流动性;(5)商品可以自由贸易且贸易成本为零,要素在国际间完全不能流动;(6)在分析期内商品不存在要素密集度转换。(7)两国生产技术和消费偏好相同:(8)两国的要素禀赋差异未达到完全专业化生产的程度。
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30 6000万最缺乏技术的劳动力从欧洲边缘国家移民到了新世界,资本市场也更加一体化。19世纪50年代中期到1914年,从英国、法国和德国到新世界以及几个亚洲国家的国际信贷增长了20倍。
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64 20世纪30年代大萧条时期自由贸易理论的发源地英国诞生了凯恩斯主义,强调通过贸易保护将总需求从国外商品转移到国内商品上来。约翰·希克斯(1951) 认为,“造成英国的自由主义思想对自由贸易失去信心的主要原因是旧的自由主义理念在大量的失业面前无能为力,面对进口的限制却可以帮助或减少失业。”而按照巴格瓦蒂的观点,即使在20世纪30年代,合理的政策应该是通过创造足够的总需求来纠正市场失灵并同时坚持自由贸易,而不是将现有的总需求转向国内产品。详见《今日自由贸易》,贾格迪什·巴格瓦蒂,中国人民大学出版社,2004年,第12页。
65 Anne.Krueger."Foreign Trade Regimesand Economic Develpment:Liberalization Attemptsand Consequences"Bali ngerpub.Co.1978.
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68 转摘自《贸易自由化与就业和收入分配》,俞会新,中国财政经济出版社,2003年,第2页
69 M.Michaely,D.Papageourigiou,A.Choksi."Liberalizing Foreign Trade",Basil Blackwell.1991.
70 按照这种划分标准,出口导向与进口替代并不是对称的,中性贸易(自由贸易)和偏向出口的政策都是促进出口的贸易政策。这与克鲁格的观点有所不同,克鲁格认为只有当对出口的刺激超过了面向国内生产和销售的保护程度时,才可称之为出口导向政策。在这种情形下,出口导向与进口替代的定义是对称的,其分界点为抵消后的贸易中性。参见盛斌,《中国对外贸易政策的政治经济分析》,上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,2002年,第170页。
71 杨叔进,《中国外贸体制改革》,贵州人民出版社,1998年,第53页。
72 黄天华,《WTO 与中国关税》,复旦大学出版社,2002年,第164页。
73 黄天华,《WTO与中国关税》,复旦大学出版社,2002年,第170页。
74 1988年12月15日以前,人民币汇率为3.72元兑1美元:至1989年12月15日贬值至4.72元人民币兑1美元;1990年11月27日再次贬值至5.20元人民币兑1美元。参见,杨叔进《中国外贸体制改革》,第41页、第43页。
75 黄天华,《WTO与中国关税》,复旦大学出版社,2002年,第170-171页。
76 双日,《100多个税目关税下调将带来哪些影响》,《国际市场》,2006年3月
77 郭华平,《中国取消非关税措施的承诺全部兑现》,《时代经贸》,2006年1/2期。
78 《中国加入世界贸易组织四年的评估》,2006.02.15,http://www.sccwto.net:7001/wto/contentjsp?id=12575
79 中国人民银行公告〔2005〕第16号,《中国人民银行关于完善人民币汇率形成机制改革的公告》,2005年7月21日
80 《中国人民银行关于扩大银行间即期外汇市场人民币兑美元交易价浮动幅度的公告》,2007年5月18日,
83 商务部,《2007年春季中国对外贸易形势报告》,2007-05-17,http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/ae/ai/200705/20070504679342.html
84《中华人民共和国1985年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》,国家统计局,1986年2月28日,http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/ndtjgb/qgndtjgb/t20020331 15379.htm
85《中华人民共和国1996年国民经济和社会发展的统计公报》,国家统计局,1997年4月4日。
86《中华人民共和国2000年国民经济和社会发展的统计公报》,国家统计局,2001年2月28日。
87商务部,《中国对外贸易彤势2001年春季报告》,2001年9月19日
88 商务部,《中国对外贸易形势2002年春季报告》,2002年9月19日;《2007年春季中国对外贸易形势发展报告》,2007年5月17日。
89 商务部,《中国对外贸易形势2002年春季报告》,2002年9月19日;《2007年春季中国对外贸易形势发展报告》,2007年5月17日。
90 《中国加入世界贸易组织四年的评估》,2006.02.15
91 《中华人民共和国2006年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》,国家统汁局,2007年2月28日。
97 本节分析参考了巴格瓦蒂(2004)有关内容,详见:巴格瓦蒂,《高级国际贸易学》,上海财经大学出版社,2004年,第119页。
98 Dixit,A.,and Norman,V."Theory of International Trade".Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1980.
99 Jones,Ronald(1963)"The Structure of Simple General Equilibrium Models," Journal of Political Economy,73,557-572. 易学》,上海财经大学出版社,2004年,第121页。
101 转摘自巴格瓦蒂,《高级国际贸易学》,上海财经大学出版社,2004年,第121页。
102 变动后新的均衡点必然处于图中A''处,假定p_2变动后均衡的工资和租金比率在A'处,则工资-租金均上涨1%,且两者的比率保持不变,但在A'点,产品1的成本高于价格,因而无法盈利。又假设p_2价格上升后,经济未实现专业化生产,因此新的工资-租金率的均衡点必然在图中的A''处。此处,w高于A'处,r将低于A'处,因此,相比A处,w将会上升1%以上,而r将下降,式5-7的不等式被证实。
103参见:Feenstra,Robert C.and Gordon H.Hanson,2001,Global Production Sharing and Rising Inequality:A Survey of Trade and Wages,June 2001
104 在完全竞争的产品和要素市场假定下,出中中间品Y_2价格的上升意味着生产成本的上升,由于资本的报酬r保持不变,因此生产出口中间品的熟练和非熟练劳动的报酬均将上升,由于Y_2为非熟练劳动密集的产品,因此非熟练劳动工资上升更多,即w/q上升。与图5-2类似,如果出口商品价格变动后,非熟练劳动和熟练劳动的工资比率的均衡点位于图中的A'点,则w/q与A点相同。显然,实际均衡点B点必然位于A'点的右下方,B点的w高于A'点,而q低于A'点,即w/q上升。
105 Sachs,Jeffrey D.and Howard J.Shatz(1998) "International Trade and Wage Inequality:Some New Results,"in Susan M.Collins,ed.,Imports,Exports,and the American Worker,Washington,DC:Brookings Institution Press,215-240.
106 由于Y_1和Y_2价格不变,两商品的单位成本不变,而资本要素价格r出现下降,因此两商品单位成本中用于劳动的支出增加,w、q均上升,导致Y_1和Y_2商品单位成本曲线线c_1、c_2均出现右移。
107 Rod Falvey(1999),"Trade liberlixation and factor price convergence",Jounal of International Economics 49(1999)195-210
108 Peter Neary,(1985),"International Factor Mobilety,Minimum Wage Rates,and Factor-Price Equalixation:A Synthesis",Quarterly Journal of Economics Auguest 1985.vol.C,Issue 3 J
109 详见 Rybczynski T.M(1955),"Factor Endowment and Relative Commodity Prices." Economica,22,336-41。
110 要素禀赋变动首先引起生产中要素比例的变动,禀赋增加的要素报酬有下降趋势,而稀缺要素报酬有上升趋势,这将导致部门间要素的流动。在商品和要素价格均等化的作用下,新的均衡实现时,两商品生产中的要素比例都将调整至禀赋变动前的水平。当然由于经济中产品数量结构的变化,从整体上看,该经济体生产中的要素比例足变动的,劳动供给增长使整个经济平均的资本劳动比(K/L)下降。
111 详见 Falvey,Rod(1999),"Trade Liberalization and Factor Price Convergence" Journal of International Economics:49(1),p195-210.
113 Diewert,W.E.(1974),"Applications of Duality Theory," in Frontiers of Quantitative Economics Vol.Ⅱ,edited by M.Intriligator and D.Kendrick,North-Holland,Amsterdam,106-171.
114 Kohli,U.R.(1978) "A Gross National Product Function and the Derived Demand for Imports and Supply of Exports," Canadian Journal of Economics,11,167-82.;Kohli,Ulrich(1991 ) Technology,Duality and Foreign Trade,Harvester Whetsheaf,London.
115 Berman,Eli,John Bound,and Zvi Griliches(1994) "Changes in the Demand for Skilled Labor within U.S.Manufacturing:Evidence from the Annual Survey of Manufactures,Quarterly Journal of Economics,104,
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2 Stolper,W.F.,and Samuelson,P.A.(1941),"Protection and Real Wages," Review of Economic Study,9,P58-73。
3 详见 Feenstra,Robert C.and Gordon H.Hanson(1996,1999,2001,2003)的研究。
4 巴格瓦蒂认为,尽管《国富论》出版以米,每一代经济学家中的大部分都赞成斯密-李嘉图关于专业化分工获得贸易收益的观点,以及与此相关的自由贸易最优性的论证,但广大民众却很少认同这一观点。原因是人们在面对变化时产生的错觉,即人们只关注贸易造成的成本如工作机会的减少,却忽略了贸易带来的收益如新的就业机会。而来自学界内部的反对者则以市场失灵或市场扭曲为理由反对自由贸易。参见:巴格瓦蒂,《今日自由贸易》,中国人民大学出版社,2004年,第2-3页和第8页。
5 David Ricardo,On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation,1817;edited by P.Sraffa,London 1951
6 新古典贸易理论的有关结论是在严格的前提假定下得到的:(1)两国、两商品、两要素;(2)生产函数具有可变要素比例且规模报酬不变;(3)劳动和资本要素总量既定;(4)产品和要素市场完全竞争,均具有充分的流动性;(5)商品可以自由贸易且贸易成本为零,要素在国际间完全不能流动;(6)在分析期内商品不存在要素密集度转换。(7)两国生产技术和消费偏好相同:(8)两国的要素禀赋差异未达到完全专业化生产的程度。
7 Paul A.Samuelson(1948),"International Trade and the Equalisation of Factor Prices",The Economic Journal (June),58(230),pp.163-84.;Paul A.Samuelson(1949),"International Factor-Price Equalizations and Once Again",The Economic Journal(June),P181-197:Stolper,W.F.,and Samuelson,P.A.(1941),"Protection and Real Wages," Review of Economic Study,9,P58-73。
8 Jacob Viner,"Studies in the Theory of International Trade," New York 1937
9 Jones,R.W.A.,"Three-factor model in theory,trade and history." In Bhagwatti et al.,(eds.,) Trade Balance of Payments and Growth:Essays in Honor of C.P.Kindleberger.Amsterdam:North Holland,1971
10 Samuelson,P."An exact Hume-Ricardo-Marshall model of international trade." Journal of International Economics 1(1971a):1-18;Samuelson,P."Ohlin was right." Swedish Journal of Economics 73(1971b):365-384
11 Neary,P.1978 Short-Run Capital Specificity and the Pure Theory of International Trade," The Economic Journal,88,488-510
12 Mussa,M.1974,"Tariffs and the Distribution of Income:The Importance of Factor Specificity,Substitutability and Intensity in the Short and Long Run," Journal of Political Economy,82,1191-1203.
13 Rybczynski T.M(1955),"Factor Endowment and Relative Commodity Prices." Economica,22,336-41.
14 Dornbusch,Rudiger,Stanley Fischer,and Paul A.Samuelson(1977) "Comparative Advantage,Trade,and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review,67(5),823-39.
15 Falvey,Rod(1999),"Trade Liberalization and Factor Price Convergence" Journal of International Economics;49(1),p195-210
16 Feenstra,Robert C.and Gordon H.Hanson(1996),"Foreign Investment,Outsourcing,and Relative Wages," in Robert C.Feenstra,Gene M.Grossman,and Douglas A.Irwin,eds.,The Political Economy of Trade Policy:Papers in Honor ofJagdish Bhagwati,Cambridge MA:MIT Press;Feenstra,Robert C.and Gordon H.Hanson,(2001),Global Production Sharing and Rising lnequality:A Survey of Trade and Wages,June 2001
17 Krugman,Paul(2000) "Technology,Trade and Factor Prices?' Journal of International Economics,50(1),51-72
18 Lawrence,R.and M.Slaughter(1993),"International Trade and American Wages in the 1980s:Gaint Sucking Sound or Small Hiccup?" Brookings Papers on Economic Activity:Microeconomics,161-226
19 Berman,Eli,John Bound.and Zvi Griliches(1994),"Changes in the Demand for Skilled Labor within U.S.Manufacturing:Evidence from the Annual Survey of Manufactures," Quarterly Journal of Economics,104,367-398
20 Bernard,Andrew B.and J.Bradford Jensen,1997,"Exporters,Skill Upgrading and the Wage Gap",Journal of International Economics,February,42,3-22
21 Sachs,Jeffrey D.and Howard J.Shatz(1998),"International Trade and Wage Inequality:Some New Results,"in Susan M.Collins,ed.,Imports,Exports,and the American Worker,Washington.DC:Brookings Institution Press,215-240.
22 转摘自 Sachs,Jeffrey D.and Howard J.Shatz(1998),"International Trade and Wage Inequality:Some New Results," in Susan M.Collins,ed.,Imports,Exports,and the American Worker,Washington,DC:Brookings Institution Press,215-240.
23 同上。
24 Yraca,Daniel A.(2004),"Trade liberalization,labour mobility and wages",Journal of International Trade &Economic Development,Jun2004,Vol.13 Issue 2,p111-136,26p;
25 Jones,R.W.;1999,"Heckscher-Ohlin trade models for the new century":University of Rochester.
26 Xu,Bin,(2003),"Trade liberalization,wage inequality,and endogenously determined nontraded goods",Journal of International Economics 60(2003) 417-431
27 Zhu,Susan Chun and Daniel Trefler,2003."Trade and inequality in developing countries:a general equilibrium analysis." Journal of International Economics,Vol.65 Issue 1,p21-48
28 Theil Index:泰指数是不平等程度的度量指标,其值在0和Ln(n),之间,n为收入组别数,其值越大,不平等程度越高。
29 乔万尼·A.科尼亚.经济自由化和全球化对发展中国家和转型困家收入不平等的影响[J].世界经济与政治2003(3)
30 6000万最缺乏技术的劳动力从欧洲边缘国家移民到了新世界,资本市场也更加一体化。19世纪50年代中期到1914年,从英国、法国和德国到新世界以及几个亚洲国家的国际信贷增长了20倍。
31 转摘自:胡昭玲,经济全球化与收入不平等,经济学家,2004(04)
32 Krugman,Paul and Anthony J.Venables,1995,"Globalization and the Inequality of nations." The Quarterly Journal Of Economics
33 侯永志,经济全球化对收入分配的影响及其对中国政策的启示,北京工业大学学报,2001(4)
34 Magee,S.(1980)."Three Simple Tests of the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem." In EOppenheimer,ed.,Issues in International Economics,London:Oriel Press,138
35 Beaulieu,E.1998."Factor or Industry Cleavages in Trade Policy? An Empirical Test of the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem." Deapartment of Economics,University of Calgary Discussion Paper Series 98-12.
36 Balistreri,E.1997."The Performance of the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek Model in Predicting Policy Forces at the Individula Level." Canadian Journal of Economics 30:1-17
37 Scheve,K.and M.Slaughter.1998."What Determines Individual Trade Policy Preferences?" National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper #6531.
38 Beaulieu,E.and C.Magee.2001."Campaign Contributions and Trade Policy:New Tests of Stolper- Samuelson."University of Calgary Working Paper.
39 Magee,Christopher.Carl Davidson,and Steven J.Matusz,(2005)."Trade,Turnover,and Tithing",Journal of International Economics,May2005,Vol.66 Issue 1,p157-176,20p;
40 Davis,S.and J.Haltiwanger.1992."Gross Job Creation,Gross Job Destruction,and Employment Reallocation." Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(3):819-863
41 转摘自 Gokhan H.Akay,"Trade,wages and the specific factors model with an empirical application to African manufacturing industries",Doctor paper,September 2004
42 Melvin,J.,and Waschik,R.(2001),"The Neoclassical Ambiguity in the Specific Factors Model," Journal of Trade & Economic Development,10,321-337
43 Jones,R.W,and Ruffin,R.(2008),"Trade and Wages:A Deeper Investigation",Jones,Ronald W.;Ruffin,Roy J..Review of International Economics,May2008,Vol.16 Issue 2,p234-249,16p
44 Gokhan H.Akay,"Trade,wages and the specific factors model with an empirical application to African manufacturing industries".Doctor paper,September 2004
45 Freeman,Richard B.and Remco H.Oostendorp(2001) "The Occupational Wages around the World Data File,"International Labour Review,140(4),379-401.
46 Bojas,George J.and Ramey,Valrie A."Time-Series Evidence on the Sources of Trends in Wage Inequality,"American Economic Review,May 1994,84(2) 10-16
47 Hine,Robert C.and Peter W.Wright(1998) "Trade with low wage economies,employment and productivity in UN manufacturing",Thel Economics Journal,Sep.1998,108,1500-1510
48 Bernard,Andrew B.and J.Bradford Jensen,1997,"Exporters,Skill Upgrading and the Wage Gap",Journal of International Economics.February,42,3-22
49 王韧.全球化条件下居民收入分配的动态迁移-对Stolper-Samuelson定理的质疑[J].上海经济研究,2003(10)
50 Wei.Shang-jin And Wu Yi,"Globalization and Inequality:Evidence from within China." NBER Working Paper 8611,2001.(http://papers.nber.org/papers/w8611,pdf)
51 Zhang,Xiaobo and Kevin H.Zhang(2001),How Does Globalisation Affect Regional Inequality Within a Developing Country?-Evidence from China
52 何璋.开放程度与收入分配不平等问题-以中国为例[J].世界经济研究2003(2)
53 徐水安,翟桔红.论加入世界贸易组织对中国居民收入分配的影响[J].经济评论2003(06)
54 李善同,翟凡.加入世界贸易组织对中国经济的影响[R].载余永定,郑秉义土编.中国“入世”研究报告:进入WTO的中国产业,社会科学文献出版社2000,P35-84
55 俞会新,刘杰.贸易自由化对就业和工资的影响[J].河北工业大学学报,2002.2
56 俞会新,薛敬孝.中国贸易自由化对工业就业的影响[J].世界经济,2002(10)
57 俞会新.贸易自由化与就业和收入分配[M].中国财政经济出版社,2003年,第2页
58 王延中.加入WTO对中国工业就业的影响及对策[J].中国工业经济.2002.5
59 张车伟,蔡昉.试论加入WTO对中国就业结构的影响[J].当代经济科学,2002-3
60 杨玉华.对外贸易对我国就业影响的实证分析[J].信阳师范学院学报,2006(6);杨玉华.工业品贸易对工业就业影响的实证分析[J].财贸研究,2006(6)
61 周申,李春梅.工业贸易结构变化对我国就业的影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006(7)
62 周申.杨传伟,国际贸易与我国就业不同贸易伙伴影响差异的经验研究[J].世界经济研究,2006(3)
63 殷德生,唐海燕.技能型技术进步、南北贸易与工资不平衡[J].经济研究,2006(05)
64 20世纪30年代大萧条时期自由贸易理论的发源地英国诞生了凯恩斯主义,强调通过贸易保护将总需求从国外商品转移到国内商品上来。约翰·希克斯(1951) 认为,“造成英国的自由主义思想对自由贸易失去信心的主要原因是旧的自由主义理念在大量的失业面前无能为力,面对进口的限制却可以帮助或减少失业。”而按照巴格瓦蒂的观点,即使在20世纪30年代,合理的政策应该是通过创造足够的总需求来纠正市场失灵并同时坚持自由贸易,而不是将现有的总需求转向国内产品。详见《今日自由贸易》,贾格迪什·巴格瓦蒂,中国人民大学出版社,2004年,第12页。
65 Anne.Krueger."Foreign Trade Regimesand Economic Develpment:Liberalization Attemptsand Consequences"Bali ngerpub.Co.1978.
66 廖涵,房师杰,《贸易自由化及其度量理论述评》,中南财经大学学报,2000年第5期。
67 J.Bhagwati."Foreign Trade Regimesand Economic Development:Anatomyand Consequences of Exchange ControlRe gimes",BahingerPub.Co.1978.
68 转摘自《贸易自由化与就业和收入分配》,俞会新,中国财政经济出版社,2003年,第2页
69 M.Michaely,D.Papageourigiou,A.Choksi."Liberalizing Foreign Trade",Basil Blackwell.1991.
70 按照这种划分标准,出口导向与进口替代并不是对称的,中性贸易(自由贸易)和偏向出口的政策都是促进出口的贸易政策。这与克鲁格的观点有所不同,克鲁格认为只有当对出口的刺激超过了面向国内生产和销售的保护程度时,才可称之为出口导向政策。在这种情形下,出口导向与进口替代的定义是对称的,其分界点为抵消后的贸易中性。参见盛斌,《中国对外贸易政策的政治经济分析》,上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,2002年,第170页。
71 杨叔进,《中国外贸体制改革》,贵州人民出版社,1998年,第53页。
72 黄天华,《WTO 与中国关税》,复旦大学出版社,2002年,第164页。
73 黄天华,《WTO与中国关税》,复旦大学出版社,2002年,第170页。
74 1988年12月15日以前,人民币汇率为3.72元兑1美元:至1989年12月15日贬值至4.72元人民币兑1美元;1990年11月27日再次贬值至5.20元人民币兑1美元。参见,杨叔进《中国外贸体制改革》,第41页、第43页。
75 黄天华,《WTO与中国关税》,复旦大学出版社,2002年,第170-171页。
76 双日,《100多个税目关税下调将带来哪些影响》,《国际市场》,2006年3月
77 郭华平,《中国取消非关税措施的承诺全部兑现》,《时代经贸》,2006年1/2期。
78 《中国加入世界贸易组织四年的评估》,2006.02.15,http://www.sccwto.net:7001/wto/contentjsp?id=12575
79 中国人民银行公告〔2005〕第16号,《中国人民银行关于完善人民币汇率形成机制改革的公告》,2005年7月21日
80 《中国人民银行关于扩大银行间即期外汇市场人民币兑美元交易价浮动幅度的公告》,2007年5月18日,
83 商务部,《2007年春季中国对外贸易形势报告》,2007-05-17,http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/ae/ai/200705/20070504679342.html
84《中华人民共和国1985年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》,国家统计局,1986年2月28日,http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/ndtjgb/qgndtjgb/t20020331 15379.htm
85《中华人民共和国1996年国民经济和社会发展的统计公报》,国家统计局,1997年4月4日。
86《中华人民共和国2000年国民经济和社会发展的统计公报》,国家统计局,2001年2月28日。
87商务部,《中国对外贸易彤势2001年春季报告》,2001年9月19日
88 商务部,《中国对外贸易形势2002年春季报告》,2002年9月19日;《2007年春季中国对外贸易形势发展报告》,2007年5月17日。
89 商务部,《中国对外贸易形势2002年春季报告》,2002年9月19日;《2007年春季中国对外贸易形势发展报告》,2007年5月17日。
90 《中国加入世界贸易组织四年的评估》,2006.02.15
91 《中华人民共和国2006年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》,国家统汁局,2007年2月28日。
97 本节分析参考了巴格瓦蒂(2004)有关内容,详见:巴格瓦蒂,《高级国际贸易学》,上海财经大学出版社,2004年,第119页。
98 Dixit,A.,and Norman,V."Theory of International Trade".Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1980.
99 Jones,Ronald(1963)"The Structure of Simple General Equilibrium Models," Journal of Political Economy,73,557-572. 易学》,上海财经大学出版社,2004年,第121页。
101 转摘自巴格瓦蒂,《高级国际贸易学》,上海财经大学出版社,2004年,第121页。
102 变动后新的均衡点必然处于图中A''处,假定p_2变动后均衡的工资和租金比率在A'处,则工资-租金均上涨1%,且两者的比率保持不变,但在A'点,产品1的成本高于价格,因而无法盈利。又假设p_2价格上升后,经济未实现专业化生产,因此新的工资-租金率的均衡点必然在图中的A''处。此处,w高于A'处,r将低于A'处,因此,相比A处,w将会上升1%以上,而r将下降,式5-7的不等式被证实。
103参见:Feenstra,Robert C.and Gordon H.Hanson,2001,Global Production Sharing and Rising Inequality:A Survey of Trade and Wages,June 2001
104 在完全竞争的产品和要素市场假定下,出中中间品Y_2价格的上升意味着生产成本的上升,由于资本的报酬r保持不变,因此生产出口中间品的熟练和非熟练劳动的报酬均将上升,由于Y_2为非熟练劳动密集的产品,因此非熟练劳动工资上升更多,即w/q上升。与图5-2类似,如果出口商品价格变动后,非熟练劳动和熟练劳动的工资比率的均衡点位于图中的A'点,则w/q与A点相同。显然,实际均衡点B点必然位于A'点的右下方,B点的w高于A'点,而q低于A'点,即w/q上升。
105 Sachs,Jeffrey D.and Howard J.Shatz(1998) "International Trade and Wage Inequality:Some New Results,"in Susan M.Collins,ed.,Imports,Exports,and the American Worker,Washington,DC:Brookings Institution Press,215-240.
106 由于Y_1和Y_2价格不变,两商品的单位成本不变,而资本要素价格r出现下降,因此两商品单位成本中用于劳动的支出增加,w、q均上升,导致Y_1和Y_2商品单位成本曲线线c_1、c_2均出现右移。
107 Rod Falvey(1999),"Trade liberlixation and factor price convergence",Jounal of International Economics 49(1999)195-210
108 Peter Neary,(1985),"International Factor Mobilety,Minimum Wage Rates,and Factor-Price Equalixation:A Synthesis",Quarterly Journal of Economics Auguest 1985.vol.C,Issue 3 J
109 详见 Rybczynski T.M(1955),"Factor Endowment and Relative Commodity Prices." Economica,22,336-41。
110 要素禀赋变动首先引起生产中要素比例的变动,禀赋增加的要素报酬有下降趋势,而稀缺要素报酬有上升趋势,这将导致部门间要素的流动。在商品和要素价格均等化的作用下,新的均衡实现时,两商品生产中的要素比例都将调整至禀赋变动前的水平。当然由于经济中产品数量结构的变化,从整体上看,该经济体生产中的要素比例足变动的,劳动供给增长使整个经济平均的资本劳动比(K/L)下降。
111 详见 Falvey,Rod(1999),"Trade Liberalization and Factor Price Convergence" Journal of International Economics:49(1),p195-210.
113 Diewert,W.E.(1974),"Applications of Duality Theory," in Frontiers of Quantitative Economics Vol.Ⅱ,edited by M.Intriligator and D.Kendrick,North-Holland,Amsterdam,106-171.
114 Kohli,U.R.(1978) "A Gross National Product Function and the Derived Demand for Imports and Supply of Exports," Canadian Journal of Economics,11,167-82.;Kohli,Ulrich(1991 ) Technology,Duality and Foreign Trade,Harvester Whetsheaf,London.
115 Berman,Eli,John Bound,and Zvi Griliches(1994) "Changes in the Demand for Skilled Labor within U.S.Manufacturing:Evidence from the Annual Survey of Manufactures,Quarterly Journal of Economics,104,
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