湖北大重型数控机床产业技术路线图研究
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摘要
数控机床是装备制造业的加工母机。数控机床产业是国家经济的基础性、支柱性和战备性产业之一,是衡量一个国家综合国力和工业现代化程度的高低的标志。一些工业发达国家还将数控技术和数控装备作为国家战略物资,在大力发展的同时封锁和限制“高精尖”数控关键技术。我国高度重视高档数控机床产业的发展,《国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要(2006-2020)》确定“高档数控机床与基础制造装备专项”为十六个国家科技重大专项之一,明确指出,大重型数控机床技术突破是实现高档数控机床技术发展的关键。
在国家各项政策的推动下,数控机床产业成为湖北经济新的增长点,特别是以武重为代表的企业在大重型数控机床技术领域居于国内领先地位。但是,由于市场化改革、市场竞争等因素的影响,湖北大重型数控机床产业发展仍存在的不足。如何制定更为行之有效的发展战略,提升湖北大重型数控机床产业技术实力,促进湖北经济发展,是湖北当前亟待解决的主要需要问题。
技术路线图,是一种有效的管理工具,能够从消费者角度出发,预见未来技术,制定技术发展战略。目前,在美、英、韩、日等技术比较发达的国家和地区使用相当广泛,并取得很好的效果,但在我国理论和应用研究还较少。据此,本文运用技术路线图,按照“市场需求——产业目标——技术壁垒——研发需求——资源状况”总体思路,研究了湖北大重型数控机床产业发展战略。本文主要内容包括：
(1)在技术路线图理论综述的基础上,阐明了大重型数控机床产业背景和发展历程,围绕产业环境、产业资源和产业关联度,分析了湖北省大重型数控机床产业发展现状,为后面的研究工作奠定基础。
(2)在总体分析湖北省数控机床产业需求状况基础之上,运用基于三角模糊数的群决策法,识别市场需求要素,绘制市场需求要素技术路线图,明确产业发展趋势以及驱动力,准确进行产业发展定位。
(3)根据湖北省大重型数控机床产业目标总体分析和产业技术发展趋势,以市场需求要素为依据,在专家访问的基础上,运用主成分分析法,分析市场需求要素与产业目标关联度,识别产业目标,绘制产业目标技术路线图,为产业选择技术创新战略、确定技术创新组织形式以及研发计划的组织管理提供依据。
(4)提出基于XML的专利文档分析方法,运用该方法识别湖北省大重型数控机床关键技术,绘制出产业关键技术路线图,获得新技术的发展动向,遴选优先发展的技术,为优化科技资源配置提供依据。
(5)根据湖北省大重型数控机床关键技术风险的结果,凝练相关研发项目,确定研发项目的优先级,运用改进的风险矩阵重点分析顶级项目研发过程风险,绘制优先研发需求风险——利润技术路线图。其次,对研发主体和研发模式进行分析,绘制研发风险、研发主体和研发模式的相关技术路线图。此外,运用基于AHP和SWOT方法,客观评价大重型数控机床产业研发资源能力,确定产业资源需求。
(6)总结市场需求分析技术路线图、产业发展目标技术路线图、关键技术技术路线图和研发项目等成果并找出其关联点以综合起来,绘制湖北省大重型数控机床产业综合技术路线图,并以此为依据提出产业发展总体构想和建议,为产业发展提供决策和参考依据。
CNC machine is a primary machine tool of equipment manufacturing industry. It is one of basic, pillar and strategic industries in the economy of China. Meanwhile, it is the criteria to evaluate a country's comprehensive national power and the degree of industrial modernization. Some industrial advanced countries look CNC technologies and equipments as national strategic resources. They not only try their best to develop CNC industry, but also block and restrict high-grade, precise and advanced CNC key technology to spread to developing countries. Our country has been paying a lot of attention to the development of high-end CNC machine industry.《National Guideline on Medium-and Long-Term Program for Science and Technology Development (2006-2020))) confirmed "high-end CNC machine tools and basic manufacturing equipment" as one of sixteen national science and technology programs, and defined the breakthrough of technology in the filed of heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine tool industry as the key to the high-end CNC technology development.
Driven by the national policies, CNC machine tool industry has become a new opportunity for economic growth in Hubei Province. Specially, Wuhan Heavy Duty Machine Tool Group Corp., which is an enterprise model of Hubei's CNC industry, held a leading position in the national field of heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine tool. However, due to some factors affecting CNC machine tool industrial development, such as market reforming, market competition and so on, heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine industry in Hubei still needs improvement. We must face a series of questions. For example, how to establish effective development strategy to boost up its technological capabilities and to promote economical development in Hubei is the main problem to be solved. A technology roadmap (TRM), an efficient management tool, is developed from the view of customers to foresee and choose critical technologies for companies. Recently, TRM is popular in American, Japan and UK, and other developed countries, and it is proved to be of great help. However, few research and practical guidelines are offered in China. Accordingly, the main purpose of this paper is to study industrial development strategy on heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine tool industry which has become a pillar industry in Hubei, based on a general idea of technology roadmap, including market demands, industry aims, technological barriers, R&D needs, and resources. Specifically, the content can be abstracted as follows.
(1) Based on reviewing the theory of technology roadmap, this paper first illuminates background and developing process of heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine tool industry, and analyzes the development of heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine tool industry in Hubei with consideration of industry environment, industry resources, and industry relevancy. The above work sets up a heavy foundation for the following research.
(2) On the foundation of general analysis of heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine tool industrial demands in Hubei, this paper recognizes demand factors using group decision making method based on triangular fuzzy numbers. Subsequently, the technology roadmap on demand factors is drawn to illuminate the trend and driving force of industrial development, and to determine the industrial position.
(3) According to overall analysis of industry aims and technology development trend of heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine tool industry in Hubei, expert visiting method and principal component analysis are employed to analyze the relevancy between market demand factors and industry aim factors to identify the aims of the industry. And then the technology roadmap of industry aims is drawn as a basic reference to select industrial innovation strategy, to determine the organizational management of technology innovation and R&D plan.
(4) To recognize the key technology for heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine tool industry in Hubei, we proposed a patent document analysis method based on XML. With this method, key technologies are found out by analyzing patent documents and the technology roadmap of industrial key technology are finished. This roadmap helps to acquire the trend of new technology, and thus to select projects with priority, which provides guidelines to optimize the allocation of science and technology resources.
(5) Based on the key technology recognized of heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine tool industry in Hubei, this paper selects R&D projects and defines their priority. Using improved risk matrix method, the risks of prima R&D process are analyzed, and the risk-profit technology roadmap of prima R&D projects is done. Then, this paper analyzes R&D main body and model to manipulate the TRM of R&D risk, R&D body, and R&D model. Furthermore, considering its resources demand, the paper evaluates the industrial R&D resources objectively with the method of SWOT-AHP.
(6) Summarizing the technology roadmaps of market demands, industry aims, technological barriers, R&D needs, resources etc., the paper draws the comprehensive TRM of heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine tool industry in Hubei. It further puts forward the general ideas and suggestions on industrial development, providing reference for the decision making and strategy selecting of the industrial development.
在国家各项政策的推动下,数控机床产业成为湖北经济新的增长点,特别是以武重为代表的企业在大重型数控机床技术领域居于国内领先地位。但是,由于市场化改革、市场竞争等因素的影响,湖北大重型数控机床产业发展仍存在的不足。如何制定更为行之有效的发展战略,提升湖北大重型数控机床产业技术实力,促进湖北经济发展,是湖北当前亟待解决的主要需要问题。
技术路线图,是一种有效的管理工具,能够从消费者角度出发,预见未来技术,制定技术发展战略。目前,在美、英、韩、日等技术比较发达的国家和地区使用相当广泛,并取得很好的效果,但在我国理论和应用研究还较少。据此,本文运用技术路线图,按照“市场需求——产业目标——技术壁垒——研发需求——资源状况”总体思路,研究了湖北大重型数控机床产业发展战略。本文主要内容包括：
(1)在技术路线图理论综述的基础上,阐明了大重型数控机床产业背景和发展历程,围绕产业环境、产业资源和产业关联度,分析了湖北省大重型数控机床产业发展现状,为后面的研究工作奠定基础。
(2)在总体分析湖北省数控机床产业需求状况基础之上,运用基于三角模糊数的群决策法,识别市场需求要素,绘制市场需求要素技术路线图,明确产业发展趋势以及驱动力,准确进行产业发展定位。
(3)根据湖北省大重型数控机床产业目标总体分析和产业技术发展趋势,以市场需求要素为依据,在专家访问的基础上,运用主成分分析法,分析市场需求要素与产业目标关联度,识别产业目标,绘制产业目标技术路线图,为产业选择技术创新战略、确定技术创新组织形式以及研发计划的组织管理提供依据。
(4)提出基于XML的专利文档分析方法,运用该方法识别湖北省大重型数控机床关键技术,绘制出产业关键技术路线图,获得新技术的发展动向,遴选优先发展的技术,为优化科技资源配置提供依据。
(5)根据湖北省大重型数控机床关键技术风险的结果,凝练相关研发项目,确定研发项目的优先级,运用改进的风险矩阵重点分析顶级项目研发过程风险,绘制优先研发需求风险——利润技术路线图。其次,对研发主体和研发模式进行分析,绘制研发风险、研发主体和研发模式的相关技术路线图。此外,运用基于AHP和SWOT方法,客观评价大重型数控机床产业研发资源能力,确定产业资源需求。
(6)总结市场需求分析技术路线图、产业发展目标技术路线图、关键技术技术路线图和研发项目等成果并找出其关联点以综合起来,绘制湖北省大重型数控机床产业综合技术路线图,并以此为依据提出产业发展总体构想和建议,为产业发展提供决策和参考依据。
CNC machine is a primary machine tool of equipment manufacturing industry. It is one of basic, pillar and strategic industries in the economy of China. Meanwhile, it is the criteria to evaluate a country's comprehensive national power and the degree of industrial modernization. Some industrial advanced countries look CNC technologies and equipments as national strategic resources. They not only try their best to develop CNC industry, but also block and restrict high-grade, precise and advanced CNC key technology to spread to developing countries. Our country has been paying a lot of attention to the development of high-end CNC machine industry.《National Guideline on Medium-and Long-Term Program for Science and Technology Development (2006-2020))) confirmed "high-end CNC machine tools and basic manufacturing equipment" as one of sixteen national science and technology programs, and defined the breakthrough of technology in the filed of heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine tool industry as the key to the high-end CNC technology development.
Driven by the national policies, CNC machine tool industry has become a new opportunity for economic growth in Hubei Province. Specially, Wuhan Heavy Duty Machine Tool Group Corp., which is an enterprise model of Hubei's CNC industry, held a leading position in the national field of heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine tool. However, due to some factors affecting CNC machine tool industrial development, such as market reforming, market competition and so on, heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine industry in Hubei still needs improvement. We must face a series of questions. For example, how to establish effective development strategy to boost up its technological capabilities and to promote economical development in Hubei is the main problem to be solved. A technology roadmap (TRM), an efficient management tool, is developed from the view of customers to foresee and choose critical technologies for companies. Recently, TRM is popular in American, Japan and UK, and other developed countries, and it is proved to be of great help. However, few research and practical guidelines are offered in China. Accordingly, the main purpose of this paper is to study industrial development strategy on heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine tool industry which has become a pillar industry in Hubei, based on a general idea of technology roadmap, including market demands, industry aims, technological barriers, R&D needs, and resources. Specifically, the content can be abstracted as follows.
(1) Based on reviewing the theory of technology roadmap, this paper first illuminates background and developing process of heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine tool industry, and analyzes the development of heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine tool industry in Hubei with consideration of industry environment, industry resources, and industry relevancy. The above work sets up a heavy foundation for the following research.
(2) On the foundation of general analysis of heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine tool industrial demands in Hubei, this paper recognizes demand factors using group decision making method based on triangular fuzzy numbers. Subsequently, the technology roadmap on demand factors is drawn to illuminate the trend and driving force of industrial development, and to determine the industrial position.
(3) According to overall analysis of industry aims and technology development trend of heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine tool industry in Hubei, expert visiting method and principal component analysis are employed to analyze the relevancy between market demand factors and industry aim factors to identify the aims of the industry. And then the technology roadmap of industry aims is drawn as a basic reference to select industrial innovation strategy, to determine the organizational management of technology innovation and R&D plan.
(4) To recognize the key technology for heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine tool industry in Hubei, we proposed a patent document analysis method based on XML. With this method, key technologies are found out by analyzing patent documents and the technology roadmap of industrial key technology are finished. This roadmap helps to acquire the trend of new technology, and thus to select projects with priority, which provides guidelines to optimize the allocation of science and technology resources.
(5) Based on the key technology recognized of heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine tool industry in Hubei, this paper selects R&D projects and defines their priority. Using improved risk matrix method, the risks of prima R&D process are analyzed, and the risk-profit technology roadmap of prima R&D projects is done. Then, this paper analyzes R&D main body and model to manipulate the TRM of R&D risk, R&D body, and R&D model. Furthermore, considering its resources demand, the paper evaluates the industrial R&D resources objectively with the method of SWOT-AHP.
(6) Summarizing the technology roadmaps of market demands, industry aims, technological barriers, R&D needs, resources etc., the paper draws the comprehensive TRM of heavy-duty and large-size CNC machine tool industry in Hubei. It further puts forward the general ideas and suggestions on industrial development, providing reference for the decision making and strategy selecting of the industrial development.
引文
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