商品定价与价格传导理论的研究
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摘要
价格问题是市场经济的中心问题之一,商品的生产和流通都在价格信号的引导下实现。经济学家围绕价格理论研究形成了丰富的成果,其中不乏获得诺贝尔经济学奖的理论贡献。尽管如此,在现实经济问题的挑战面前价格理论还是显得远未完善。随着社会经济的发展,传统理论没有充分研究过的新问题不断出现。本文就价格理论中两个核心的定价和价格传导问题展开一些研究,从具体背景出发进而推广到一般,以此说明一些价格形成和变化的机制。
商品的价格由成本和利润两部分组成,成本分为固定成本和可变成本,利润与市场供需关系有关。不同商品的成本、利润和价格的关系差异极大,加上企业经营理念、定价策略的不同,这些关系有时候就变得十分复杂。本文以民航运输服务为直接研究背景,来探讨如何建立定价模型。民航运输服务的成本和需求在服务行业中有代表性,并且中国民航业受政府管制的定价方式在公共产品中有代表性,因此对其定价问题的研究可以相应地推广到这两类商品中去。本文在分析民航运输服务成本、讨论需求函数形式的基础上,分析了单条航线和多条航线下价格与成本、利润率的关系。在此基础上得到一个根据利润率设定合理市场基准价格的定价模型。
价格传导理论研究上游价格如何影响下游价格的机制。它主要关注两个问题：1)当上游价格变化后,下游价格会如何变化?2)政府该如何干预价格传导过程以实现其政策目的?上游价格变化后下游价格的变化受下游产品的生产者、流通厂商及政府部门的决策共同影响。每一方参与者根据上游价格变化、对其他各参与方行为的判断及自身利益最大化分别做出决策。本文以从玉米到猪肉的价格传导过程为直接背景,分别对猪肉市场中生产者、流通厂商和政府的决策过程建立子模型,通过对整个系统模型的分析解释了玉米价格变化传导到猪肉价格变化的过程以及在此过程中政府可采取的最优调控措施。在此基础上本文最后提出了一个更普遍的价格传导模型。
本文的主要创新点如下：
一)构建了一个民航行业基准价格的定价模型,与现有模型相比,本文考虑了价格与成本、需求、利润率之间的关系,可以帮助决策者更加科学地根据目标利润率制定基准价格。针对其中单位价格与单位成本的关系这个难点,我们在一定的成本结构和恰当的需求假设下,建立了两者间的函数关系。
二)为上下游行业的价格传导过程建立了完整的模型。其中的创新之处在于：1,对上游价格变化后下游生产者、流通企业和政府的行为分别建立了决策子模型,从而可以详细分析上游价格变化和其他各种影响因素在价格传导过程中的作用；2,模型是动态的,可以考察不同时间上下游价格之间的关系。相对于其他文献中的静态模型,动态模型更加贴近现实；3,模型中加入了政府干预的因素,帮助我们理解政府政策在传导过程中的作用,以及该如何采取最优的干预政策。
Price is the core of the market economy and modern economics. Each product in the market is circulated with the price labeled on it. Although numerous research have been done to the price theory, new pricing problems are continuing to challenge traditional theory, especially in pric-ing theory and price transmission theory.This dissertation explores these two theories by doing research on the pricing of air transportation market and corn-pork price transmission.
Price can be divided into two parts:cost and profit. Cost can be divided into variable cost and fixed cost. Profit is determined by demand and supply. Various products in the market have their own characteristics with the price,cost and profit,resulting various pricing mechanism. This dissertation selects the pricing of air industry as the direct background and hopes the method developed in this industry can be applied to many other industries due to many representative characteristics of the air industry. The research begins with analysis of the cost structure of the air flight. Then the cost-price function and the profit-price model have been built. Therefore,we can find the appropriate price for a prespecified reasonable profit rate. A numeric method is proposed to demonstrate the feasibility of this pricing model.
Price transmission theory explains the mechanism of the price transmission from up-stream price to down-stream price, which consists of two questions:how does the down-stream price respond to the change of the up-stream price? What is optimal decision of the regulator to control the transmission? Assuming a change to the up-stream price, the research of price transmission focuses on the manufacturers' behavior and also many other factors that affect the price transmis-sion process, such as production period, stock or retailers' behavior, etc. After the discussion of the general price transmission process, this dissertation develops a complete model system to the corn-pork example.With the sub-models developed to demonstrate the behaviors of the manufac-turers,retailers and the government, the equilibrium of the market and the connections of prices between different time periods can be analyzed, and the effect of the change of the up-stream price on the change of the down-stream price can be demonstrated.
The main contribution of the thesis is listed as follows:
(1) Develops a bas-price pricing model for the air industry. Compared to the traditional pricing way, the new model considers the relationship of price and cost, which help to make more accurate decisions on base-price for any prespecified profit rates.
(2) Develops a complete model frame for the price transmission process. The model includes submodels to describe the behaviors of market participants such as manufacturers, retailers and government. Due to this model, many factors affecting the transmission process can be com-pletely analyzed. The model includes the time factor in the price transmission model so that the model is dynamic other than the traditional static way. The model includes the government behavior in the price transmission model so that the effect of government policies on the trans-mission process can be understood and the optimal government policies can be found.
商品的价格由成本和利润两部分组成,成本分为固定成本和可变成本,利润与市场供需关系有关。不同商品的成本、利润和价格的关系差异极大,加上企业经营理念、定价策略的不同,这些关系有时候就变得十分复杂。本文以民航运输服务为直接研究背景,来探讨如何建立定价模型。民航运输服务的成本和需求在服务行业中有代表性,并且中国民航业受政府管制的定价方式在公共产品中有代表性,因此对其定价问题的研究可以相应地推广到这两类商品中去。本文在分析民航运输服务成本、讨论需求函数形式的基础上,分析了单条航线和多条航线下价格与成本、利润率的关系。在此基础上得到一个根据利润率设定合理市场基准价格的定价模型。
价格传导理论研究上游价格如何影响下游价格的机制。它主要关注两个问题：1)当上游价格变化后,下游价格会如何变化?2)政府该如何干预价格传导过程以实现其政策目的?上游价格变化后下游价格的变化受下游产品的生产者、流通厂商及政府部门的决策共同影响。每一方参与者根据上游价格变化、对其他各参与方行为的判断及自身利益最大化分别做出决策。本文以从玉米到猪肉的价格传导过程为直接背景,分别对猪肉市场中生产者、流通厂商和政府的决策过程建立子模型,通过对整个系统模型的分析解释了玉米价格变化传导到猪肉价格变化的过程以及在此过程中政府可采取的最优调控措施。在此基础上本文最后提出了一个更普遍的价格传导模型。
本文的主要创新点如下：
一)构建了一个民航行业基准价格的定价模型,与现有模型相比,本文考虑了价格与成本、需求、利润率之间的关系,可以帮助决策者更加科学地根据目标利润率制定基准价格。针对其中单位价格与单位成本的关系这个难点,我们在一定的成本结构和恰当的需求假设下,建立了两者间的函数关系。
二)为上下游行业的价格传导过程建立了完整的模型。其中的创新之处在于：1,对上游价格变化后下游生产者、流通企业和政府的行为分别建立了决策子模型,从而可以详细分析上游价格变化和其他各种影响因素在价格传导过程中的作用；2,模型是动态的,可以考察不同时间上下游价格之间的关系。相对于其他文献中的静态模型,动态模型更加贴近现实；3,模型中加入了政府干预的因素,帮助我们理解政府政策在传导过程中的作用,以及该如何采取最优的干预政策。
Price is the core of the market economy and modern economics. Each product in the market is circulated with the price labeled on it. Although numerous research have been done to the price theory, new pricing problems are continuing to challenge traditional theory, especially in pric-ing theory and price transmission theory.This dissertation explores these two theories by doing research on the pricing of air transportation market and corn-pork price transmission.
Price can be divided into two parts:cost and profit. Cost can be divided into variable cost and fixed cost. Profit is determined by demand and supply. Various products in the market have their own characteristics with the price,cost and profit,resulting various pricing mechanism. This dissertation selects the pricing of air industry as the direct background and hopes the method developed in this industry can be applied to many other industries due to many representative characteristics of the air industry. The research begins with analysis of the cost structure of the air flight. Then the cost-price function and the profit-price model have been built. Therefore,we can find the appropriate price for a prespecified reasonable profit rate. A numeric method is proposed to demonstrate the feasibility of this pricing model.
Price transmission theory explains the mechanism of the price transmission from up-stream price to down-stream price, which consists of two questions:how does the down-stream price respond to the change of the up-stream price? What is optimal decision of the regulator to control the transmission? Assuming a change to the up-stream price, the research of price transmission focuses on the manufacturers' behavior and also many other factors that affect the price transmis-sion process, such as production period, stock or retailers' behavior, etc. After the discussion of the general price transmission process, this dissertation develops a complete model system to the corn-pork example.With the sub-models developed to demonstrate the behaviors of the manufac-turers,retailers and the government, the equilibrium of the market and the connections of prices between different time periods can be analyzed, and the effect of the change of the up-stream price on the change of the down-stream price can be demonstrated.
The main contribution of the thesis is listed as follows:
(1) Develops a bas-price pricing model for the air industry. Compared to the traditional pricing way, the new model considers the relationship of price and cost, which help to make more accurate decisions on base-price for any prespecified profit rates.
(2) Develops a complete model frame for the price transmission process. The model includes submodels to describe the behaviors of market participants such as manufacturers, retailers and government. Due to this model, many factors affecting the transmission process can be com-pletely analyzed. The model includes the time factor in the price transmission model so that the model is dynamic other than the traditional static way. The model includes the government behavior in the price transmission model so that the effect of government policies on the trans-mission process can be understood and the optimal government policies can be found.
引文
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[3]萨缪尔森,诺德豪斯,萧琛,微观经济学(中译本),华夏出版社,麦格劳希尔出版公司,1999。
[4]Coarse, R. The nature of the firm. Economica,1937,4.
[5]Alchian,A.,Demsetz,H. Production, information costs, and economic organization. American Economic Review,1972,62:777-795.
[6]Pigou, A.C. The Economics of Welfare. London:Mcmillan,1932.
[7]Stigler, G. The Organization of Industry. Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1968.
[8]Neumann, J. V., Morganstern, O. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton: Princeton University Press,1944.
[9]Luce, R. D., Raiffa, H. Games and Decisions:Introduction and Critical Survey. New York: John Wiley & Sons,1957.
[10]Friedman, M., Savage, L. J. The utility analysis of choices involving risk. Journal of Political Economy,1948,56(4):279-304.
[11]Simith, A. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. New York:Ox-ford University Press,1976.
[12]Becker, G. Human Capital:A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis. New York:Columbia Uni-versity Press,1975.
[13]George, H. Progress and Poverty. New York:Robert Schalkenbach Foundation,1984.
[14]Marshall, A. Priciples of Economics. London:Macmillan,1920.
[15]Arrow, Kenneth. Social Choices and Indivedual Values. New Haven:Yale University Press, 1970.
[16]Tullock, G. The Welfares Costs of Tariffs, Monopolies and Theft. Western Economic Journal, 1967,5:224-232.
[17]Coarse, R. The problem of social cost. Journal of Law and Economics,1960,3:1-44.
[18]Akerlof, G. The market for lemons. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1970,336:488-500.
[19]Krueger, A. The political economy of the rent-seeking society. American Economic Review, 1974,64:291-303.
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