中国发展低碳经济的能源效率及经济结构调整问题研究
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摘要
发展低碳经济是中国实现可持续发展,提高国际竞争力,降低环境成本的内在要求,中国政府在“十二五规划”中明确提出到2020年单位国民生产总值C02排放要比2005年下降40-45%,要完成此目标,中国面临着以下困境：快速的经济增长、以煤炭为主的能源消费结构、较低的能源效率和较大的经济结构调整压力。
为支持中国发展低碳经济,本文在探讨中国发展低碳经济的背景基础上,首先研究了中国能源消费和碳排放增长的原因,从而对中国发展低碳经济现状有了更深入的了解。能源消费按细分行业进行了研究,而碳排放则在生产函数框架下进行了研究,可以了解非能源要素投入和要素替代对碳排放增长的影响,为了解碳排放增长的原因提供了新的视角。研究发现经济规模增长和经济结构转变是中国1992-2007年能源消费增长的主要原因,中国经济规模增长和资本强度提高是中国1997-2007年碳排放增长的主要原因,能源使用实际技术进步是帮助减少碳排放的主要因素,但由于负的能源价格替代效应存在,能源使用技术进步的贡献并没有预期那么大。
随后,对发展低碳经济过程中的能源效率和经济结构调整两个关键问题进行了研究。能源效率在目前我国研发投入相对较低、研发体制不完善,由资源禀赋决定的能源结构相对固定情况下,本文重点对经济开放和技术溢出对中国能源效率影响作了实证研究,从而为如何利用国外资源和技术帮助提高中国能源效率提供了实证依据。对省际全要素能源效率的实证研究发现,来自港澳台地区的外商直接投资(Foreign Direct Investment, FDI)对中国省际全要素能源效率起到了正的作用,而来自非港澳台地区(主要是欧美日韩)却起到了负的作用。进口通过直接提高技术进步的方式,促进了省际全要素能源效率提高,但对技术效率促进作用不显著。出口由于竞争的加剧显著促进了中国省际全要素能源效率进步。经济特区的建立并未对中国能源效率提高起到促进作用。对工业行业全要素能源效率的实证研究发现,水平方向上,港澳台FDI的技术溢出并不显著,但进口和非港澳台FDI的显著促进了工业行业全要素能源效率增长。后向关联上,港澳台FDI的溢出效应对工业行业全要素能源效率有正向促进作用,非港澳台FDI的则起到了恶化作用。FDI前向关联并未产生显著的垂直技术溢出。
经济结构调整,本文则基于结构路径分解法将单个行业或部门结构调整扩展至行业链结构调整,为如何进行行业链结构调整帮助减少碳排放提供了实证依据和可操作的思路。另外,电力工业作为中国碳排放最多的行业,本文还详细研究了在生产阶段和终端消费阶段对电力工业有最大影响力的部门和行业,从而为引导对电力工业有关键影响力的行业生产技术进步和行业结构调整提供了决策依据。研究发现引导电力工业、金属冶炼和化学工业的生产技术进步和控制它们的扩张规模,对抑制电力工业碳排放有最高效率且有最好效果。最后,结合本文结果给出了相关政策建议。
The sustainable development, improve the international competitiveness, and reduce environmental costs demand China develop low carbon economy. Chinese government had clearly put forward the target that unit GDP CO2emissions of2020must be40-45%lower than in2005in Chinese "12th Five-year Plan". At present China still faces the following troubles in order to finish this goal:rapid economic growth, mainly on coal energy consumption structure, low energy efficiency and larger pressure of economic structural adjustment.
In order to support China develop low carbon economy, this paper first analyzed the sources of the increasing of Chinese energy consumption and carbon emissions which will make a deeper understanding for China develop low carbon economy. The energy consumption was analyzed by sectors, and the carbon emissions was analyzed under the production theory, which can evaluate the impact of non-energy inputs and factor substitution on carbon emissions and opened a new perspective on the causes of the increasing of carbon emissions. The results show that the increasing scale of the economy and the structural change of the economy were the major causes of the increasing of energy consumption during1992-2007. The increasing scale of the economy and capital intensity were the major reasons of the increasing of carbon emissions during1997-2007, the actual technical progress of energy use was the major force to reduce carbon emissions, but the contribution of the actual technical progress of energy use was not as high as expected for the negative energy price substitution.
Then, this paper studied the energy efficiency and economic structural change these two key problems in the progress of developing low carbon economy. At present improving Chinese energy efficiency faces the dilemma of the low energy efficiency, not perfect R&D system and relatively fixed energy structure determined by energy endowment. So this paper focused on the impact of the economic openness and technology spillovers on energy efficiency of China, which provide the empirical proves for how to utilize foreign resources and technology to improve Chinese energy efficiency. The results show that foreign direct investment(FDI) from HK, Macao and Taiwan(HMT) had a positive impact on China's provincial total factor energy efficiency(TFEE), and FDI from non-HMT was negative. The imports increased Chinese provincial TFEE through technical progress, but didn't increase the technical efficiency significantly. The exports promoted provincial TFEE for increased competition. The establishment of special economic zones didn't help to improve Chinese TFEE. The research on industry TFEE show that FDI from HMT didn't show significant horizontal technology spillovers, but imports and FDI from non-HMT had positive technology spillovers on TFEE. FDI from HMT brought positive spillovers to industry TFEE through backward linkage, on the contrary, FDI from non-HMT deteriorated industry TFEE. The forward linkage didn't show significant spillovers.
Based on structure path decomposition this paper provided the proves and practical operation method on how to implement the supply chain structural adjustment. Moreover, since the power industry let out the biggest number of CO2emissions, this paper also studied the key sectors and department in production and final demand period which had the greatest impact on the power industry. This provides further information and empirical proves on how to guide the key sectors' technical progress and economic structural adjustment. The results show that control the scale of the power industry, metal smelting and chemical industry, at the same time, leading the technical progress of them have the highest efficiency and best effect on reducing CO2emissions of the power industry. At last, this paper put forward some police implications based on the results of this paper.
为支持中国发展低碳经济,本文在探讨中国发展低碳经济的背景基础上,首先研究了中国能源消费和碳排放增长的原因,从而对中国发展低碳经济现状有了更深入的了解。能源消费按细分行业进行了研究,而碳排放则在生产函数框架下进行了研究,可以了解非能源要素投入和要素替代对碳排放增长的影响,为了解碳排放增长的原因提供了新的视角。研究发现经济规模增长和经济结构转变是中国1992-2007年能源消费增长的主要原因,中国经济规模增长和资本强度提高是中国1997-2007年碳排放增长的主要原因,能源使用实际技术进步是帮助减少碳排放的主要因素,但由于负的能源价格替代效应存在,能源使用技术进步的贡献并没有预期那么大。
随后,对发展低碳经济过程中的能源效率和经济结构调整两个关键问题进行了研究。能源效率在目前我国研发投入相对较低、研发体制不完善,由资源禀赋决定的能源结构相对固定情况下,本文重点对经济开放和技术溢出对中国能源效率影响作了实证研究,从而为如何利用国外资源和技术帮助提高中国能源效率提供了实证依据。对省际全要素能源效率的实证研究发现,来自港澳台地区的外商直接投资(Foreign Direct Investment, FDI)对中国省际全要素能源效率起到了正的作用,而来自非港澳台地区(主要是欧美日韩)却起到了负的作用。进口通过直接提高技术进步的方式,促进了省际全要素能源效率提高,但对技术效率促进作用不显著。出口由于竞争的加剧显著促进了中国省际全要素能源效率进步。经济特区的建立并未对中国能源效率提高起到促进作用。对工业行业全要素能源效率的实证研究发现,水平方向上,港澳台FDI的技术溢出并不显著,但进口和非港澳台FDI的显著促进了工业行业全要素能源效率增长。后向关联上,港澳台FDI的溢出效应对工业行业全要素能源效率有正向促进作用,非港澳台FDI的则起到了恶化作用。FDI前向关联并未产生显著的垂直技术溢出。
经济结构调整,本文则基于结构路径分解法将单个行业或部门结构调整扩展至行业链结构调整,为如何进行行业链结构调整帮助减少碳排放提供了实证依据和可操作的思路。另外,电力工业作为中国碳排放最多的行业,本文还详细研究了在生产阶段和终端消费阶段对电力工业有最大影响力的部门和行业,从而为引导对电力工业有关键影响力的行业生产技术进步和行业结构调整提供了决策依据。研究发现引导电力工业、金属冶炼和化学工业的生产技术进步和控制它们的扩张规模,对抑制电力工业碳排放有最高效率且有最好效果。最后,结合本文结果给出了相关政策建议。
The sustainable development, improve the international competitiveness, and reduce environmental costs demand China develop low carbon economy. Chinese government had clearly put forward the target that unit GDP CO2emissions of2020must be40-45%lower than in2005in Chinese "12th Five-year Plan". At present China still faces the following troubles in order to finish this goal:rapid economic growth, mainly on coal energy consumption structure, low energy efficiency and larger pressure of economic structural adjustment.
In order to support China develop low carbon economy, this paper first analyzed the sources of the increasing of Chinese energy consumption and carbon emissions which will make a deeper understanding for China develop low carbon economy. The energy consumption was analyzed by sectors, and the carbon emissions was analyzed under the production theory, which can evaluate the impact of non-energy inputs and factor substitution on carbon emissions and opened a new perspective on the causes of the increasing of carbon emissions. The results show that the increasing scale of the economy and the structural change of the economy were the major causes of the increasing of energy consumption during1992-2007. The increasing scale of the economy and capital intensity were the major reasons of the increasing of carbon emissions during1997-2007, the actual technical progress of energy use was the major force to reduce carbon emissions, but the contribution of the actual technical progress of energy use was not as high as expected for the negative energy price substitution.
Then, this paper studied the energy efficiency and economic structural change these two key problems in the progress of developing low carbon economy. At present improving Chinese energy efficiency faces the dilemma of the low energy efficiency, not perfect R&D system and relatively fixed energy structure determined by energy endowment. So this paper focused on the impact of the economic openness and technology spillovers on energy efficiency of China, which provide the empirical proves for how to utilize foreign resources and technology to improve Chinese energy efficiency. The results show that foreign direct investment(FDI) from HK, Macao and Taiwan(HMT) had a positive impact on China's provincial total factor energy efficiency(TFEE), and FDI from non-HMT was negative. The imports increased Chinese provincial TFEE through technical progress, but didn't increase the technical efficiency significantly. The exports promoted provincial TFEE for increased competition. The establishment of special economic zones didn't help to improve Chinese TFEE. The research on industry TFEE show that FDI from HMT didn't show significant horizontal technology spillovers, but imports and FDI from non-HMT had positive technology spillovers on TFEE. FDI from HMT brought positive spillovers to industry TFEE through backward linkage, on the contrary, FDI from non-HMT deteriorated industry TFEE. The forward linkage didn't show significant spillovers.
Based on structure path decomposition this paper provided the proves and practical operation method on how to implement the supply chain structural adjustment. Moreover, since the power industry let out the biggest number of CO2emissions, this paper also studied the key sectors and department in production and final demand period which had the greatest impact on the power industry. This provides further information and empirical proves on how to guide the key sectors' technical progress and economic structural adjustment. The results show that control the scale of the power industry, metal smelting and chemical industry, at the same time, leading the technical progress of them have the highest efficiency and best effect on reducing CO2emissions of the power industry. At last, this paper put forward some police implications based on the results of this paper.
引文
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