中国省际流动人口对建设用地增长的影响
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摘要
流动人口为中国的经济发展作出了巨大贡献,并推动了工业化和城市化发展进程,也对土地利用产生很大影响。本文遵循发现问题、分析问题、解决问题、总结的逻辑思路研究中国省际流动人口对建设用地增长的影响。
本文主要内容为：分析中国省际流动人口和建设用地增长状况,探讨两者的相关性,总结中国省际流动人口对建设用地增长的影响机理,并测度影响大小。本文主要结论为：(1)东部沿海地区是中国省际流动人口的高值集聚区；北京、上海和广东是省际流动人口比率最大的地区。Moran's I指数表明,2005年,中国省际流动人口和流动人口比率的空间集聚性和2000年相比有所增强。(2)建设用地增长的相关指数表明：中国省际建设用地增长的高值集聚区从中部地区逐渐向东部沿海地区移动；上海的建设用地增长效率最大,除河南、海南外全国其余省份建设用地集约增长水平都增强。建设用地增长量集中于小部分地区,空间分布很不平衡,集聚性先减弱,后增强,现在有继续增强的趋势。(3)离开户口登记地1年以内的省际流动人口与未来3年建设用地增长的相关性系数表明,两者间存在较强的正相关性。流动人口使当地总人口增长,需满足新增人口对建设用地的需求；流动人口可以推动当地经济、工业化、城市化的发展,从而促使建设用地增长。(4)空间误差自回归结果表明：某省离开户口登记地1年以内的省际流动人口占所有省份总和的比例每增加a倍,则未来3年该省建设用地总量增长占所有省份总和的比例就会增加5.5300*1n(a+1)个千分点,居民点及独立工矿用地增长占所有省份总和的比例增加4.6674*1n(a+1)个千分点,交通运输用地增长占所有省份总和的比例大约增加8.5535*ln(a+1)个千分点。
本文的建议：完善流动人口管理制度；协调各省建设用地增长,提高集约增长水平；东部控制、中西部支持开发区建设；加快推进产业转移和升级；完善新增建设用地指标分配评价体系。
The floating population made a great contribution to Chinese economic development, promoted the development of industrialization and urbanization, and had a great effect on land use. The logic of this paper's ideas is as follow:find problems, analyze problems, solve problems, finally summarize. In this paper, we will research the effect which inter-provincial floating population has on the growth of inter-provincial construction land in China.
The main contents of this paper are:summarize related research; analyze the situation of inter-provincial floating population and construction land's growth in China; analyze their correlation; summarize the mechanism that inter-provincial floating population has a great effect on the growth of construction land in China; and measuring the size of the effect. The main conclusions of this paper are:(1)Eastern coastal area was the high value clustering area of inter-provincial floating population in China; the three areas with the largest inter-provincial population ratio were Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong. Moran's I shows:In 2005, the clustering degree of inter-provincial floating population and floating population ratio enhanced. (2)The indexes of the growth of construction land show:the high value gathering area of inter-provincial construction land's growth gradually moved from the central areas to the eastern coastal areas; Shanghai's construction land growth efficiency was higher than that of any other places in China; the level of intensive use of construction land in most provinces except Henan and Hainan enhanced; Construction land increment was concentrated in a small area, spatial distribution was very uneven, clustering degree weakened at the beginning, and then enhanced, and continued to enhance. (3)The correlation coefficient of inter-provincial floating population leaving household registration place for less than 1 year and construction land growth of 3 years in the future shows:there was a strong positive correlation between inter-provincial floating population and construction land growth. Floating population make the total population grow, pepole need construction land; floating population can promote the local development of economy, industrialization and urbanization, which makes the construction land grows. (4)Spatial error regression results show, the size of effect which inter-provincial floating population has on construction land growth is as follow:if a certain province's proportion of the scale of provincial floating population floating population leaving household registration place for less than 1 year which accounts for the sum of that of all provinces increases "a" times,in the next 3 years, the proportion of that province's construction land growth scale which accounts for the sum of that of all the provinces will increase 5.5300*ln(a+l) thousand points; the proportion of that province's province's residential and independent land growth scale which accounts for the sum of that of all the provinces will increase 4.6674*ln(a+l) thousand points;the proportion of transportation land growth scale will increase 8.5535*ln(a+1) thousand points.
The proposals of this paper:improves the system of floating population management; coordinates provincial construction land growth, improves the level of intensive growth; controls the eastern to set up development zones, supports the central and western to set up development zones; accelerates the industrial transfer and upgrading;improves the new construction land allocation evaluation system.
本文主要内容为：分析中国省际流动人口和建设用地增长状况,探讨两者的相关性,总结中国省际流动人口对建设用地增长的影响机理,并测度影响大小。本文主要结论为：(1)东部沿海地区是中国省际流动人口的高值集聚区；北京、上海和广东是省际流动人口比率最大的地区。Moran's I指数表明,2005年,中国省际流动人口和流动人口比率的空间集聚性和2000年相比有所增强。(2)建设用地增长的相关指数表明：中国省际建设用地增长的高值集聚区从中部地区逐渐向东部沿海地区移动；上海的建设用地增长效率最大,除河南、海南外全国其余省份建设用地集约增长水平都增强。建设用地增长量集中于小部分地区,空间分布很不平衡,集聚性先减弱,后增强,现在有继续增强的趋势。(3)离开户口登记地1年以内的省际流动人口与未来3年建设用地增长的相关性系数表明,两者间存在较强的正相关性。流动人口使当地总人口增长,需满足新增人口对建设用地的需求；流动人口可以推动当地经济、工业化、城市化的发展,从而促使建设用地增长。(4)空间误差自回归结果表明：某省离开户口登记地1年以内的省际流动人口占所有省份总和的比例每增加a倍,则未来3年该省建设用地总量增长占所有省份总和的比例就会增加5.5300*1n(a+1)个千分点,居民点及独立工矿用地增长占所有省份总和的比例增加4.6674*1n(a+1)个千分点,交通运输用地增长占所有省份总和的比例大约增加8.5535*ln(a+1)个千分点。
本文的建议：完善流动人口管理制度；协调各省建设用地增长,提高集约增长水平；东部控制、中西部支持开发区建设；加快推进产业转移和升级；完善新增建设用地指标分配评价体系。
The floating population made a great contribution to Chinese economic development, promoted the development of industrialization and urbanization, and had a great effect on land use. The logic of this paper's ideas is as follow:find problems, analyze problems, solve problems, finally summarize. In this paper, we will research the effect which inter-provincial floating population has on the growth of inter-provincial construction land in China.
The main contents of this paper are:summarize related research; analyze the situation of inter-provincial floating population and construction land's growth in China; analyze their correlation; summarize the mechanism that inter-provincial floating population has a great effect on the growth of construction land in China; and measuring the size of the effect. The main conclusions of this paper are:(1)Eastern coastal area was the high value clustering area of inter-provincial floating population in China; the three areas with the largest inter-provincial population ratio were Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong. Moran's I shows:In 2005, the clustering degree of inter-provincial floating population and floating population ratio enhanced. (2)The indexes of the growth of construction land show:the high value gathering area of inter-provincial construction land's growth gradually moved from the central areas to the eastern coastal areas; Shanghai's construction land growth efficiency was higher than that of any other places in China; the level of intensive use of construction land in most provinces except Henan and Hainan enhanced; Construction land increment was concentrated in a small area, spatial distribution was very uneven, clustering degree weakened at the beginning, and then enhanced, and continued to enhance. (3)The correlation coefficient of inter-provincial floating population leaving household registration place for less than 1 year and construction land growth of 3 years in the future shows:there was a strong positive correlation between inter-provincial floating population and construction land growth. Floating population make the total population grow, pepole need construction land; floating population can promote the local development of economy, industrialization and urbanization, which makes the construction land grows. (4)Spatial error regression results show, the size of effect which inter-provincial floating population has on construction land growth is as follow:if a certain province's proportion of the scale of provincial floating population floating population leaving household registration place for less than 1 year which accounts for the sum of that of all provinces increases "a" times,in the next 3 years, the proportion of that province's construction land growth scale which accounts for the sum of that of all the provinces will increase 5.5300*ln(a+l) thousand points; the proportion of that province's province's residential and independent land growth scale which accounts for the sum of that of all the provinces will increase 4.6674*ln(a+l) thousand points;the proportion of transportation land growth scale will increase 8.5535*ln(a+1) thousand points.
The proposals of this paper:improves the system of floating population management; coordinates provincial construction land growth, improves the level of intensive growth; controls the eastern to set up development zones, supports the central and western to set up development zones; accelerates the industrial transfer and upgrading;improves the new construction land allocation evaluation system.
引文
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