河北省R＆D活动溢出效应研究
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摘要
R&D知识和技术是经济增长的关键因素,R&D溢出效应往往与技术(知识)创新、技术(知识)扩散和技术(知识)转移密切相关。R&D溢出带来了社会资源的节约,加快了技术升级的进程。不断的溢出行为可以在原有生产要素供应量不变的条件下,改变生产的可能边际,提高了资源利用效率,减少了资源的浪费,保证了经济的可持续发展。它的溢出形式和效果也被国内外的诸多学者多关注。
近年来,众多的国内外学者从各个不同的角度解释、证明溢出生成机理及变化规律。本课题对近年来溢出的概念、理论和方法进行了系统的梳理,在此基础上,运用多种数理统计理论、投入产出理论等及相应的数学软件,探讨性地研究R&D活动溢出效应,并以河北省为例,对产业部门间R&D活动溢出、以及主要工业部门R&D活动溢出效率进行实证分析。本文的主要内容如下:
(1)总结了近年来国内外有关R&D和溢出的概念,并研究了R&D评价及测度方法。
(2)建立基于投入产出技术的R&D溢出效应模型,依此计算2001-2005年的河北省42部门受益者和贡献者的溢出效应值,并对主要的受益者和溢出者部门的溢出关系进行分类分析。
(3)建立数据包络(DEA)模型,计算42部门R&D投入产出活动的θ值,评价各产业部门的R&D活动效率。
(4)利用时间序列动态均衡关系分析方法,通过河北省1990-2005的R&D投入与经济增长的有关数据和变量进行协整分析与因果关系检验,并建立二者之间的误差修正模型,揭示河北省R&D投入与经济增长的动态均衡关系;利用计量经济学以及C-D函数模型分析河北省企业部门、大专院校、科研单位和其他部门R&D投入对全要素生产率的贡献。对经济发展和全要素生产率的影响程度进行了分析。
(5)通过各种模型的计算,得到了河北省各产业部门溢出与总产出的关系、与经济增长的关系,主导产业在R&D活动中的优势和不足,并提出了相应的对策和建议,为产业R&D决策提供了理论和数据支持。
The knowledge and technology of R&D is the key factor for economic growth. R&D spillovers are close related to technical innovation , diffusion , and transformation, and bring about extra surplus of social recourses, rapidly upgrade technology available either. The form and effectiveness deeply concerns many researches at home and abroad.
In recent years,researches explained and demonstrate the mechanism of emergency of spillovers and their tendency in different ways.In this paper,the concept of spillovers is discussed. Theories and methods of spillovers are also summarized systematically, and then come up with relative models about effect of R&D spillovers on basis of the above.Experiential analyzed Hebei industries R&D spillovers by using some statistical software. The main parts are as follows:
(1)The concepts of R&D and spillovers were scrupulously discussed and the measurement of spillovers was carefully examined simultaneously.
(2)Established the R&D Spillovers Model based on Input-output Theory,then calculate the value of spillovers effect of accepters and senders of42 industries of Hebei province from 1999 to 2000, assort the relationship of spillovers among the key accepters and senders.
(3) Building a Data Enveloped Analysis Model to calculate the valueθof input-output activities of 42 industries, and appraised the validity of the above industries.
( 4) Co-integration and Granger consequence analysis were made to examine.relationship between R&D input and economic growth from 1990 to 2005.The Error Correction Model was also built to indicates the dynamic equilibrium correlation between R&D input and economic growth.We employed metriceconomic model and C-D model to analyze the R&D contribution of private sector,university sector,scientific research organization sector and other sectors to the Total Factor Productivity respectively,and the degree that they have been made to economic development and TFP growth.
Finally,the conclusion about the relationships between spillovers and total output,spillovers and economics, the advantage and disadvantage of leading industries’R&D activities were drawn according to previous parts . The countermeasures were brought forward as well to support the government decision-making.
近年来,众多的国内外学者从各个不同的角度解释、证明溢出生成机理及变化规律。本课题对近年来溢出的概念、理论和方法进行了系统的梳理,在此基础上,运用多种数理统计理论、投入产出理论等及相应的数学软件,探讨性地研究R&D活动溢出效应,并以河北省为例,对产业部门间R&D活动溢出、以及主要工业部门R&D活动溢出效率进行实证分析。本文的主要内容如下:
(1)总结了近年来国内外有关R&D和溢出的概念,并研究了R&D评价及测度方法。
(2)建立基于投入产出技术的R&D溢出效应模型,依此计算2001-2005年的河北省42部门受益者和贡献者的溢出效应值,并对主要的受益者和溢出者部门的溢出关系进行分类分析。
(3)建立数据包络(DEA)模型,计算42部门R&D投入产出活动的θ值,评价各产业部门的R&D活动效率。
(4)利用时间序列动态均衡关系分析方法,通过河北省1990-2005的R&D投入与经济增长的有关数据和变量进行协整分析与因果关系检验,并建立二者之间的误差修正模型,揭示河北省R&D投入与经济增长的动态均衡关系;利用计量经济学以及C-D函数模型分析河北省企业部门、大专院校、科研单位和其他部门R&D投入对全要素生产率的贡献。对经济发展和全要素生产率的影响程度进行了分析。
(5)通过各种模型的计算,得到了河北省各产业部门溢出与总产出的关系、与经济增长的关系,主导产业在R&D活动中的优势和不足,并提出了相应的对策和建议,为产业R&D决策提供了理论和数据支持。
The knowledge and technology of R&D is the key factor for economic growth. R&D spillovers are close related to technical innovation , diffusion , and transformation, and bring about extra surplus of social recourses, rapidly upgrade technology available either. The form and effectiveness deeply concerns many researches at home and abroad.
In recent years,researches explained and demonstrate the mechanism of emergency of spillovers and their tendency in different ways.In this paper,the concept of spillovers is discussed. Theories and methods of spillovers are also summarized systematically, and then come up with relative models about effect of R&D spillovers on basis of the above.Experiential analyzed Hebei industries R&D spillovers by using some statistical software. The main parts are as follows:
(1)The concepts of R&D and spillovers were scrupulously discussed and the measurement of spillovers was carefully examined simultaneously.
(2)Established the R&D Spillovers Model based on Input-output Theory,then calculate the value of spillovers effect of accepters and senders of42 industries of Hebei province from 1999 to 2000, assort the relationship of spillovers among the key accepters and senders.
(3) Building a Data Enveloped Analysis Model to calculate the valueθof input-output activities of 42 industries, and appraised the validity of the above industries.
( 4) Co-integration and Granger consequence analysis were made to examine.relationship between R&D input and economic growth from 1990 to 2005.The Error Correction Model was also built to indicates the dynamic equilibrium correlation between R&D input and economic growth.We employed metriceconomic model and C-D model to analyze the R&D contribution of private sector,university sector,scientific research organization sector and other sectors to the Total Factor Productivity respectively,and the degree that they have been made to economic development and TFP growth.
Finally,the conclusion about the relationships between spillovers and total output,spillovers and economics, the advantage and disadvantage of leading industries’R&D activities were drawn according to previous parts . The countermeasures were brought forward as well to support the government decision-making.
引文
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[10] Romer PM.Increasing returns and long-run growth.Journal of Political Economy, 1986,5:1002~1037
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[13] Darwent,D.f.,G rowth poles and growth centers in regional planning: a review, En vironment and planning,1969,1:5~13
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