20世纪90年代以来欧洲经济增长研究
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摘要
面临人口老龄化、信息技术革命、经济全球化、环境变化等诸多挑战,20世纪90年代以来欧洲经济增长缓慢。针对欧洲经济增长缓慢的原因,国外学术界进行了大量的研究,基本形成两种不同的观点:一种观点认为欧洲经济增长缓慢的原因是创新不足,经济结构调整迟缓;另一种观点认为由于改革的负效应短期内显现,时滞和测度因素是欧洲经济增长缓慢的重要原因。国内对欧洲经济增长的研究不多,已有的研究大多以定性分析和短期经济增长为主。据此,本论文尝试在国内外研究的基础上,对90年代以来欧洲经济增长进行系统深入的分析,无论对欧洲经济的研究,还是对中国发展的借鉴,都具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。
针对90年代以来欧洲经济增长,论文从“是什么”、“为什么”、“怎么办”的思路进行研究。“是什么”是对欧洲经济增长本身进行深入的剖析和论述,分别运用时间比较、国际比较、部门比较等三种方法进行阐述和分析。“为什么”是指对欧洲经济增长原因进行分析,论文分别从欧洲模式对经济增长的影响、各要素投入对经济增长的贡献、技术进步的决定因素等三个角度进行分析,其中运用的方法包括增长核算法、Mamquist生产率指数、面板数据模型等。“怎么办”是指如何提高欧洲的经济增长率,论文从对里斯本战略评述的角度分析旨在提高经济增长率的结构改革,运用的方法包括H-P滤波分析法等。
基于以上的研究思路和分析方法,论文研究的主要结论如下:第一,无论与90年代之前相比,还是与同期美国相比,90年代以来欧洲经济增长不断减缓,主要原因是电子制造业、金融业、物流业等部门的增长相对较低。第二,欧洲模式的重要特征是经济宪法规定的宏观经济稳定和以社会公平为基础的经济社会凝聚,欧洲宏观经济稳定制约短期欧洲经济增长,有利于长期经济增长,经济社会凝聚与长期经济增长相互促进。第三,90年代以来欧洲劳动力市场改革提高了就业率,劳动投入对经济增长的贡献提高,但欧洲信息通信技术资本贡献和全要素生产率增长率低于美国,是欧洲经济增长缓慢的主要原因。从部门层次看,欧洲电子制造业以及金融业、物流业等现代服务业全要素生产率增长率低于美国。第四,技术创新是欧洲技术进步的主要决定因素,技术模仿影响不大,欧洲已经接近技术前沿面。决定技术进步的因素包括研究开发、人力资本等创新资源的投入以及有利于创新的制度和政策。欧洲技术进步缓慢的决定因素包括欧洲研究开发活动相对较少、人力资本投资和存量较低、产品市场规制较多、劳动力市场灵活性不足、金融市场规制差异较大等。第五,里斯本战略实施以来,由于劳动力市场改革效应显现,就业率提高,促进欧洲潜在经济增长率的增加,但由于技术进步缓慢的状况并没有得到根本改善,劳动生产率增长继续恶化。金融危机对欧洲潜在经济增长造成不利影响,欧洲经济复苏计划将短期经济刺激和长期结构调整结合起来,有利于提高欧洲长期竞争力。欧洲2020战略继续把创新作为欧洲未来发展的重点,随着结构改革的进行和效应的逐步显现,欧洲向创新型经济转变必将完成,欧洲经济增长的前景并不暗淡。
In face of aging society, information revolution, economic globalization, and other challenges, European Union’s (EU) economic growth has being disappointing since 1990s. The source of EU’s economic growth has provoked an ongoing debate among foreign scholars, whose views can be classified into two kinds: the first one suggests that EU’s economy might be unable to achieve a shift from traditional industrial structure to innovation-based economy structure; the second one is that part of the explanations for EU’s poor economy performance could be measurement problems and adjustment lags, because negative effects of EU’s reform are visible in short term. The existing studies about EU’s economic growth by domestic scholars are not much, and most studies analysis short term growth from demand side. This dissertation is aimed to make a study on EU’s economy growth from a systematic and deepening perspective based on previous researches. Whether aiming for understanding the EU’s economy or serving the reform of Chinese economy, this research has significant practical and theoretical meaning.
In this dissertation, the author tries to study from three aspects. The first one is to study the stylized facts of EU’s economy growth since 1990s. The second one is to analysis the root of EU economy growth from three ways: the effect of European model on economic growth; the contributions of factors input on EU’s economic growth; the determinants of EU’s total factor productivity growth (TFP), which is also called as technical progress. The third one is to reviews structural reforms and analysis the effect of structural reforms on EU’s economic growth since the fulfilling of Lisbon strategy. The methods in this research include Comparison analysis, Shift-Share analysis, Growth Accounting analysis, Malmquist index, Panel data analysis and so on.
Based on the above analysis methods, the conclusions are as following: (1) Firstly, EU’s GDP or GDP per capita annual growth rate is not only lower than ever, but also than US since 1990s. Using the Shift-share analysis method to study the economic growth, EU-US economic growth gap is more from industry growth contribution, which mainly include electrical and optical equipment, financial internidiate, and distribution and so on. (2) Secondly, macroeconomic stability, economic and social cohesion are characteristics of European model, which are the preconditions of EU’s economic growth. EU price stability-reflected in low rates of inflation- is perhaps harmful to short-term economic growth, but facilitate achieving higher economic growth over long term. Fiscal discipline is detrimental to short term growth, but conductive to long term growth. Economic and social cohesion is to reduce inequality of personal incomes or regional development, through various redistribution policies. From empirical analysis, EU’s cohesion is beneficial to increase economic growth since 1990s. (3) Thirdly, from factor decomposition aspect, it is ICT capital contribution and TFP growth which contribute mostly to EU’s poor economic growth performance since 1990s. From the industry level, EU’s electrical and optical equipment, financial intermediation, and distribution and other service sectors TFP growth are relatively lower comparing to US. (4) Fourthly, EU’s technical progress is more relying on innovation but not imitation since 1990s. The innovation rate depends on the resource devoted to the innovate effort, such as R&D and human capital. In addition, level of regulation is potentially critical driving force for innovation. Regression results indicate that the determinants of technical progress are including R&D, human capital, product market regulation, labor market regulation, and financial market regulation and so on. The main resource of EU’s slow technical progress since 1990s are ?less R&D activity, lower human capital level, more regulation of product market, inflexible labor market, and bigger disparity of financial market regulation. (5) Fifthly, Lisbon Strategy was adopted by the European Council in the spring of 2000, which aims to increase EU’s productivity and economic growth through a list of reforms. Since the fulfilling of Lisbon strategy reforms, employment rate has been increasing, which help to increase the contribution of labor input on EU’s potential economic growth. But as a result of not sufficient implement of structural reforms, the slow technical progress has not been improved obviously, which lead to the poor labor productivity performance.
European Commission has proposed“Europe 2020”strategy for the next ten years this March, which continues to consider innovation as the engine of economic growth. Once the transition of the EU’s enonomy from traditional economy to innovation-based economy would complete, EU’s economic growth will pick up.
针对90年代以来欧洲经济增长,论文从“是什么”、“为什么”、“怎么办”的思路进行研究。“是什么”是对欧洲经济增长本身进行深入的剖析和论述,分别运用时间比较、国际比较、部门比较等三种方法进行阐述和分析。“为什么”是指对欧洲经济增长原因进行分析,论文分别从欧洲模式对经济增长的影响、各要素投入对经济增长的贡献、技术进步的决定因素等三个角度进行分析,其中运用的方法包括增长核算法、Mamquist生产率指数、面板数据模型等。“怎么办”是指如何提高欧洲的经济增长率,论文从对里斯本战略评述的角度分析旨在提高经济增长率的结构改革,运用的方法包括H-P滤波分析法等。
基于以上的研究思路和分析方法,论文研究的主要结论如下:第一,无论与90年代之前相比,还是与同期美国相比,90年代以来欧洲经济增长不断减缓,主要原因是电子制造业、金融业、物流业等部门的增长相对较低。第二,欧洲模式的重要特征是经济宪法规定的宏观经济稳定和以社会公平为基础的经济社会凝聚,欧洲宏观经济稳定制约短期欧洲经济增长,有利于长期经济增长,经济社会凝聚与长期经济增长相互促进。第三,90年代以来欧洲劳动力市场改革提高了就业率,劳动投入对经济增长的贡献提高,但欧洲信息通信技术资本贡献和全要素生产率增长率低于美国,是欧洲经济增长缓慢的主要原因。从部门层次看,欧洲电子制造业以及金融业、物流业等现代服务业全要素生产率增长率低于美国。第四,技术创新是欧洲技术进步的主要决定因素,技术模仿影响不大,欧洲已经接近技术前沿面。决定技术进步的因素包括研究开发、人力资本等创新资源的投入以及有利于创新的制度和政策。欧洲技术进步缓慢的决定因素包括欧洲研究开发活动相对较少、人力资本投资和存量较低、产品市场规制较多、劳动力市场灵活性不足、金融市场规制差异较大等。第五,里斯本战略实施以来,由于劳动力市场改革效应显现,就业率提高,促进欧洲潜在经济增长率的增加,但由于技术进步缓慢的状况并没有得到根本改善,劳动生产率增长继续恶化。金融危机对欧洲潜在经济增长造成不利影响,欧洲经济复苏计划将短期经济刺激和长期结构调整结合起来,有利于提高欧洲长期竞争力。欧洲2020战略继续把创新作为欧洲未来发展的重点,随着结构改革的进行和效应的逐步显现,欧洲向创新型经济转变必将完成,欧洲经济增长的前景并不暗淡。
In face of aging society, information revolution, economic globalization, and other challenges, European Union’s (EU) economic growth has being disappointing since 1990s. The source of EU’s economic growth has provoked an ongoing debate among foreign scholars, whose views can be classified into two kinds: the first one suggests that EU’s economy might be unable to achieve a shift from traditional industrial structure to innovation-based economy structure; the second one is that part of the explanations for EU’s poor economy performance could be measurement problems and adjustment lags, because negative effects of EU’s reform are visible in short term. The existing studies about EU’s economic growth by domestic scholars are not much, and most studies analysis short term growth from demand side. This dissertation is aimed to make a study on EU’s economy growth from a systematic and deepening perspective based on previous researches. Whether aiming for understanding the EU’s economy or serving the reform of Chinese economy, this research has significant practical and theoretical meaning.
In this dissertation, the author tries to study from three aspects. The first one is to study the stylized facts of EU’s economy growth since 1990s. The second one is to analysis the root of EU economy growth from three ways: the effect of European model on economic growth; the contributions of factors input on EU’s economic growth; the determinants of EU’s total factor productivity growth (TFP), which is also called as technical progress. The third one is to reviews structural reforms and analysis the effect of structural reforms on EU’s economic growth since the fulfilling of Lisbon strategy. The methods in this research include Comparison analysis, Shift-Share analysis, Growth Accounting analysis, Malmquist index, Panel data analysis and so on.
Based on the above analysis methods, the conclusions are as following: (1) Firstly, EU’s GDP or GDP per capita annual growth rate is not only lower than ever, but also than US since 1990s. Using the Shift-share analysis method to study the economic growth, EU-US economic growth gap is more from industry growth contribution, which mainly include electrical and optical equipment, financial internidiate, and distribution and so on. (2) Secondly, macroeconomic stability, economic and social cohesion are characteristics of European model, which are the preconditions of EU’s economic growth. EU price stability-reflected in low rates of inflation- is perhaps harmful to short-term economic growth, but facilitate achieving higher economic growth over long term. Fiscal discipline is detrimental to short term growth, but conductive to long term growth. Economic and social cohesion is to reduce inequality of personal incomes or regional development, through various redistribution policies. From empirical analysis, EU’s cohesion is beneficial to increase economic growth since 1990s. (3) Thirdly, from factor decomposition aspect, it is ICT capital contribution and TFP growth which contribute mostly to EU’s poor economic growth performance since 1990s. From the industry level, EU’s electrical and optical equipment, financial intermediation, and distribution and other service sectors TFP growth are relatively lower comparing to US. (4) Fourthly, EU’s technical progress is more relying on innovation but not imitation since 1990s. The innovation rate depends on the resource devoted to the innovate effort, such as R&D and human capital. In addition, level of regulation is potentially critical driving force for innovation. Regression results indicate that the determinants of technical progress are including R&D, human capital, product market regulation, labor market regulation, and financial market regulation and so on. The main resource of EU’s slow technical progress since 1990s are ?less R&D activity, lower human capital level, more regulation of product market, inflexible labor market, and bigger disparity of financial market regulation. (5) Fifthly, Lisbon Strategy was adopted by the European Council in the spring of 2000, which aims to increase EU’s productivity and economic growth through a list of reforms. Since the fulfilling of Lisbon strategy reforms, employment rate has been increasing, which help to increase the contribution of labor input on EU’s potential economic growth. But as a result of not sufficient implement of structural reforms, the slow technical progress has not been improved obviously, which lead to the poor labor productivity performance.
European Commission has proposed“Europe 2020”strategy for the next ten years this March, which continues to consider innovation as the engine of economic growth. Once the transition of the EU’s enonomy from traditional economy to innovation-based economy would complete, EU’s economic growth will pick up.
引文
①裘元伦:“欧洲前途并不暗淡”,《欧洲研究》,2009年第5期,第55页。
②《共产党宣言》,人民出版社1997年版,第32页。
①数据来源:The Conference Board Total Economy Database, January 2010, See: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/database.cfm.
②王鹤:“欧洲经济模式评析——从效率与公平的视角”,欧洲研究工作论文,2008年第1期,第4页。
③周弘:《福利国家向何处去》,社会科学文献出版社2006年版,第26页。
④周弘:前引书,第69页。
①Eurostat, see: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/. OECD STAN, see: http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx. AMECO, see: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/ameco/index_en.htm. EU-KLEMS see: http://www.euklems.net/. CIA, see: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html GGDC, see: http://www.ggdc.net/index.htm.
①王鹤:“欧洲统一经济体评析”,《欧洲研究》,2007年第1期,第30页。
②A. F. Burns and W. C. Mitchell, Measuring Business Cycles, New York, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1946.see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cycle.
③The OECD Economic Outlook: Sources and Methods, see: http://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp ID=2094.
④OECD,Productivity Manual: A Guide to the Measuremen of Industry-level and Aggregate ProductivityGrowth,2001, p. 12.
①Karl Aiginger,“Labour Market Reforms and Economic Growth: The European Experience in the Nineties”, WIFO Working Paper, No. 232, 2004, p. 3.
②Michael Emerson, Andre Dramais: What Model for Europe Massachusetts and London: MIT Press, 1988.转引自王鹤:“欧洲经济模式评析——从效率与公平的视角”,欧洲研究工作论文,2008年第1期,第1页。
①[法]米歇尔·阿尔贝尔著:《资本主义反对资本主义》,杨祖功、杨齐、海鹰译,社会科学文献出版社1999年版。
②Pierre Pestieau, The Welfare State in the European Union, Economic and Social Perspectitives, Oxford University Press, 2006.转引自,王鹤:“欧洲经济模式评析——从效率与公平的视角”,欧洲研究工作论文,2008年第1期,第1页。
③[英]安东尼·吉登斯:“欧洲社会模式的反思与展望”,《开放时代》,2007年第6期,第5-20页。
④李靖堃：“欧洲经济宪法的发展及其对共同市场的规制—以自由竞争与自由流动为例”，《欧洲研究》，2007年第6期,第20页。
⑤The Treaty of Lisbon: http://europa.eu/lisbon_treaty/full_text/index_en.htm, Accessed Jan 12, 2010.
①周弘:“欧盟社会团结模式与欧盟发展战略”。见吴志成,薛晓源主编:《欧洲研究前沿报告》,华东师范大学出版社2007年版,第104页。
②史世伟:“欧洲经济一体化与欧盟经济宪法:一个制度和演化经济学的分析视角”,《欧洲研究》,2007年第1期,第15页。
③宋晓敏,莫伟:“‘讨论欧洲模式’国际研讨会综述”,《欧洲研究》2007年第5期,第146页。
①ECB:The Stability-oriented Monetary Policy Strategy of the Euro System, Monthly Bulletin, 1999, p. 46.
②江时学:“拉美国家重视强化社会凝聚力”,《求是》,2008年第23期,第58页。
③See: http://europa.eu/scadplus/glossary/economic_social_cohesion_en.htm, Accessed Nov 12, 2009.
①European Commission, General Government Data, autumn 2009, p. 13.
②滚雪球效应(Snowball Effect)的原意是指,雪球滚动过程中,吸收积雪量会越来越多,体积越来越大,并且增加的速度越来越快。经济学中的滚雪球效应是指,由于债务利息利滚利,公共债务总量会持续上升,且速度越来越快。
③James K. Galbraith:“Inequalities, Employment and Income Convergence in Europe: Evidence from Regional Data”. UTIP Working Paper, No. 52, 2008, p. 3.
①AndréSapir et al., An Agenda for a Growing Europe: Making the EU System Deliver, Report of an Independent High-level Group Established on the Initiative of the President of the European Commission, 2003, p. 41.
①AndréSapir,“Globalization and the Reform of European Social Models”, Background Document for the Presentation at ECOFIN Informal Meeting in Manchester, 9 September 2005, pp. 5-11.
①Douglas Gollin,“Getting Income Shares Right”, Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, Vol. 110, No. 2, 2002, pp. 458-474.
①T. J. Hatton and J. G. Williamson,“What Fundamentals Drive World Migration”, Discussion Paper, No. 2003/23, United Nations University/World Institute for Development Economics Research, 2003, pp. 1-41.
②European Commission,“The 2009 Ageing Report: Underlying Assumptions and Projection Methodologies”, European Economy, No. 7, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs, 2008, p. 42.
①Kieran Mc Morrow and Werner R ger,“An Analysis of EU Growth Trends, With a Particular Focus on Germany ,France, Italy, and the UK”, National Institute Economic Review No. 199, 2007, p. 89, http://ner.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/199/1/82.
②Horst Siebert,“Labor Market Rigidities: At the Root of Unemployment in Europe”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 11, No. 3, 1997, pp. 37-54.
①European Commission: Eurostat Regional Yearbook 2009, Office of Official Publications of the European Communities, 2009, p. 40.
②数据来源:OECD Dataset FTPT Employment,http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx, Accessed Oct 12, 2009.
③AndréSapir et al., An Agenda for a Growing Europe: Making the EU System Deliver, Report of an Independent High-level Group Established on the Initiative of the President of the European Commission, 2003, p. 25.
①数据来源:OECD Dataset FTPT Employment,http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx, Accessed Oct 12, 2009.
②European Commission:Eurostat Regional Yearbook 2009, Office of Official Publications of the European Communicaties, 2009, p. 45.
③欧盟工作时间指令是一系列有关工作时间法令的集合,包括:1993年理事会指令93/104/EC,官方公报L307, 13/12/1993第18-24页;2000年欧洲议会和理事会的指令2000/34/EC。
④H. Siebert,“Labor Market Rigidities: At the Root of Unemployment in Europe”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 11, No. 3, 1997, pp. 37-54.
⑤丹麦的灵活保障模式又被称为“金三角”(The Golden Triangle),包含高就业流动、完善的社会保障体系和积极的劳动力市场政策三个方面。
⑥王鹤:“欧洲经济模式评析——从效率与公正的视角”,欧洲研究工作论文,2008年第1期,第19页。
①D. W. Jorgenson, M. S. Ho, and K. J. Stiroh,“A Retrospective Look at the US. Productivity Growth Resurgence”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.22, No. 1, 2008, p. 4.
②数据来源:OECD STAN数据库。
①《马克思恩格斯全集》第四卷,人民出版社1958年版,第144页。
②R. M. Solow,“Technical Change and the Aggreagate Production Function”, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 39, No. 3, 1957, p. 312.
①OECD, Productivity Manual: A Guide to the Measurement of Industry-level and Aggregate Productivity Growth,Paris,2001, p. 125.
②OECD, The Measurement of Scientific and Technological Activities: Standard Practice for Surveys of Research and Experimental Development– Frascati Manual 1993, 1993, p. 29.
③European Commission,“The EU Economy: 2007 Review”, European economy, No. 8, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs, 2007, p. 55.
④P. Aghion and P. Howitt,“Joseph Schumpeter Lecture-Appropriate Growth Policy: A Unifying Framework”Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 4, No. 2-3, 2006, pp. 269-314.
⑤D. Acemoglu, P. Aghion and F. Zilibotti,“Distance to Frontier, Selection and Economic Growth”, Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 4, No. 1, 2006, pp. 37-74.
①技术创新指标表示方法参考K. McMorrow, W. Roger and A.Turrini,“The EU-US Total Factor Productivity Gap: An Industry Perspective”, CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 7237, 2008, p. 10.
②J. Gwartney and R. Lawson, Economic Freedom of the World: 2009 Annual Report, Economic Freedom Network, http://www.freetheworld.com/release.html.
③本节建立的三个模型参考:K. McMorrow, W. Roger and A.Turrini,“The EU-US Total Factor Productivity Gap: An Industry Perspective”, CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 7237, 2008, pp. 10-20.
①斯塔勒纳、克瑞斯提纳认为R&D对TFP增长率的影响具有两期的时滞。See: Steliana Sandu and Cristina Modoran,“The Impact of R&D Investent on Productivity”,Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Vol. 2, Issue 10, 2008, p. 4.
①World Intellectual Property Organization, World Patent Report: A Statistical Review, 2008, pp. 68-69.
①P. Aghion, C. Meghir and J. Vandenbussche,“Growth, Education and Distance to Technological Frontier”, mineo,See: A. Sapir, et al., An Agenda For a Growing Europe: Making the EU System Deliver, Report of an Independent High-level Group Established on the Initiative of the President of the European Commission, 2003, p. 33.
②数据来源:OECD, Education at a Glance 2007: OECD Indicators, 2007, p. 207, Table B.2.3.
③数据来源:OECD, Education at a Glance 2007: OECD Indicators, 2007, p. 208, Table B.2.4.
④数据来源:OECD, Education at a Glance 2007: OECD Indicators, 2007, p. 221, Table.B.3.2b.
①http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/25/world/europe/25iht-union.4.16484744.html _r=1, Accessed Jan 12, 2010.
②http://mcn.chinareviewnews.com/doc/1003/8/8/1/100388169.html coluid=70&kindid=1850&docid=100388169, Accessed Jan 12, 2010.
①丁纯:“欧洲劳动力市场的困境、成因与改革”,《国际经济评论》,2006年第11-12期,第62页。
①薛彦平:“欧盟资本市场的基本特点与发展趋势”,《国外社会科学》,2009年第3期,第94页。
②按照OECD的定义,信息通信产业(ICT产业)是指“以电子方式获取、传输、显示数据和信息的制造业和服务业的总和”,参阅:OECD, Measuring the Information Economy 2002,2002, p. 81.
①http://www.oecd.org/document/11/0,3343,en_2649_34449_2766475_1_1_1_1,00.html, Accessed Jan 20, 2010.
②http://www.oecd.org/sti/ipr-statistics, Accessed Jan 20, 2010.
①Line Vogt,“The EU’s Single Market: At Your Service”OECD Economic Department Working Paper, No. 449, 2005, p. 2.
①European Council,“Presidency Conclusions”, 23 and 24 March 2000, p. 1.
②European Commission, Facing the Challenge: the Lisbon Strategy for Growth and Employment. Report from the High Level Group Chaired by Wim Kok, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2004, p. 12.
③European Commission, ibid, p. 13.
①Zhou Hong,“A chinese Perspective on the EU’s Lisbon Strategy”, Review of Economic Conditions in Italy, June, 2007, p. 88.
②European Commission, Facing the Challenge: the Lisbon Strategy for Growth and Employment. Report from the High Level Group Chaired by Wim Kok, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2004, p. 6.
③Zhou Hong,“A chinese Perspective on the EU’s Lisbon Strategy”, Review of Economic Conditions in Italy, June, 2007, p. 89.
①European Commission, Strategic Report on the Renewed Lisbon Strategy for Growth and Jobs: Launching the New Cycle (2008 ~ 2010), 2007, p. 15.
②EurActiv,“Sweden admits Lisbon Agenda‘failure’”, 03 June 2009, http://www.euractiv.com/en/priorities/sweden-admits-lisbon-agenda-failure/article-182797, Accessed Mar 20, 2010.
①European Commission, i2010- A European Information Society for Growth and Employment, 2005, p. 4.
②就业抑制是指欧洲的社会经济制度以及劳动力市场政策抑制了大陆的创业精神和市场机制,就业激励是指激励企业家精神,提升就业能力,强化就业适应性等。参阅:杨伟国,苏静:《欧洲就业战略:从就业抑制到就业激励》,《欧洲研究》2005年第6期,第54-66页。
③European Council,“Presidency Conclusions”, 23 and 24 March, 2006.
④欧盟委员会经济与财政总司劳动力市场改革数据库(LABREF),提供欧盟各成员国劳动力市场的改革措施。See: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/indicators/labref.
⑤[法]格扎维埃.范登.布朗德:“欧洲老龄化问题对策述评——迈向积极的老年人口就业政策”,周愚译,《经济社会体制比较》,2007年第1期,第130页。
⑥丁纯:“欧盟劳动力市场的困境、成因与改革”,《国际经济评论》,2006年11-12期,第63-64页。
①European Commission, Raising Productivity Growth: Key Messages from the European Competitiveness Report, 2007, p. 69.
②欧盟标准成本模型(简称SCM),用来测度法律规章制度等对企业造成行政负担成本,相应的计算方法是:企业行政负担成本等于平均每件行政事务的成本乘以每年行政事务的总数量;每件行政事务成本等于平均每小时劳动成本乘以每件行政事务所耗费的时间。
③European Commission, Raising Productivity Growth: Key Messages from the European Competitiveness Report, 2007, p. 70.
④European Council,“Presidency Conclusions”, 23 and 24 March, 2006.
⑤European Commission, Raising Productivity Growth: Key Messages from the European Competitiveness Report, 2007, pp. 53-61.
⑥HP滤波法是由Hodrick和Prescott于1980年在分析美国战后的经济景气时提出,理论基础是时间序列的谱分析方法,目前广泛的应用于对宏观经济趋势的分析中,平滑系数λ取值100.
⑦由于2008年开始爆发全球金融危机,欧盟潜在经济增长率受到严重影响,所以本节选取2000-2007年期间考察里斯本战略以来欧盟经济增长分析的时间段。
①吴弦:“金融风暴与欧盟的应对行动协调——内在动因与主要举措述析”,《欧洲研究》,2009年第1期,第24页。
②数据来源:Eurostat数据库。
③王鹤:“欧盟经济形势:深度衰退与数字欧洲计划”。见周弘主编:《世界金融危机冲击下的欧洲(欧洲发展报告2009~2010)》,社科文献出版社2010年版,第52页。
①European Commission,“European Economic Forcast Autumn 2009”, European Economy, No. 10, 2009, p. 21.
②G. J. Koopman and I. P. Szekely,“The Financial Crisis and Potential Growth: Policy Challenges for Europe”, ECFIC Economic Briefs, June,2009, p. 3, http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications, Accessed Mar 20th, 2010
①European Commission, Europe 2020: A Strategy for Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Growth, Communication from the Commisison, 2010, p.3.
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③周弘:《福利国家向何处去》,社会科学文献出版社2006年版,第26页。
④周弘:前引书,第69页。
①Eurostat, see: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/. OECD STAN, see: http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx. AMECO, see: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/ameco/index_en.htm. EU-KLEMS see: http://www.euklems.net/. CIA, see: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html GGDC, see: http://www.ggdc.net/index.htm.
①王鹤:“欧洲统一经济体评析”,《欧洲研究》,2007年第1期,第30页。
②A. F. Burns and W. C. Mitchell, Measuring Business Cycles, New York, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1946.see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cycle.
③The OECD Economic Outlook: Sources and Methods, see: http://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp ID=2094.
④OECD,Productivity Manual: A Guide to the Measuremen of Industry-level and Aggregate ProductivityGrowth,2001, p. 12.
①Karl Aiginger,“Labour Market Reforms and Economic Growth: The European Experience in the Nineties”, WIFO Working Paper, No. 232, 2004, p. 3.
②Michael Emerson, Andre Dramais: What Model for Europe Massachusetts and London: MIT Press, 1988.转引自王鹤:“欧洲经济模式评析——从效率与公平的视角”,欧洲研究工作论文,2008年第1期,第1页。
①[法]米歇尔·阿尔贝尔著:《资本主义反对资本主义》,杨祖功、杨齐、海鹰译,社会科学文献出版社1999年版。
②Pierre Pestieau, The Welfare State in the European Union, Economic and Social Perspectitives, Oxford University Press, 2006.转引自,王鹤:“欧洲经济模式评析——从效率与公平的视角”,欧洲研究工作论文,2008年第1期,第1页。
③[英]安东尼·吉登斯:“欧洲社会模式的反思与展望”,《开放时代》,2007年第6期,第5-20页。
④李靖堃：“欧洲经济宪法的发展及其对共同市场的规制—以自由竞争与自由流动为例”，《欧洲研究》，2007年第6期,第20页。
⑤The Treaty of Lisbon: http://europa.eu/lisbon_treaty/full_text/index_en.htm, Accessed Jan 12, 2010.
①周弘:“欧盟社会团结模式与欧盟发展战略”。见吴志成,薛晓源主编:《欧洲研究前沿报告》,华东师范大学出版社2007年版,第104页。
②史世伟:“欧洲经济一体化与欧盟经济宪法:一个制度和演化经济学的分析视角”,《欧洲研究》,2007年第1期,第15页。
③宋晓敏,莫伟:“‘讨论欧洲模式’国际研讨会综述”,《欧洲研究》2007年第5期,第146页。
①ECB:The Stability-oriented Monetary Policy Strategy of the Euro System, Monthly Bulletin, 1999, p. 46.
②江时学:“拉美国家重视强化社会凝聚力”,《求是》,2008年第23期,第58页。
③See: http://europa.eu/scadplus/glossary/economic_social_cohesion_en.htm, Accessed Nov 12, 2009.
①European Commission, General Government Data, autumn 2009, p. 13.
②滚雪球效应(Snowball Effect)的原意是指,雪球滚动过程中,吸收积雪量会越来越多,体积越来越大,并且增加的速度越来越快。经济学中的滚雪球效应是指,由于债务利息利滚利,公共债务总量会持续上升,且速度越来越快。
③James K. Galbraith:“Inequalities, Employment and Income Convergence in Europe: Evidence from Regional Data”. UTIP Working Paper, No. 52, 2008, p. 3.
①AndréSapir et al., An Agenda for a Growing Europe: Making the EU System Deliver, Report of an Independent High-level Group Established on the Initiative of the President of the European Commission, 2003, p. 41.
①AndréSapir,“Globalization and the Reform of European Social Models”, Background Document for the Presentation at ECOFIN Informal Meeting in Manchester, 9 September 2005, pp. 5-11.
①Douglas Gollin,“Getting Income Shares Right”, Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, Vol. 110, No. 2, 2002, pp. 458-474.
①T. J. Hatton and J. G. Williamson,“What Fundamentals Drive World Migration”, Discussion Paper, No. 2003/23, United Nations University/World Institute for Development Economics Research, 2003, pp. 1-41.
②European Commission,“The 2009 Ageing Report: Underlying Assumptions and Projection Methodologies”, European Economy, No. 7, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs, 2008, p. 42.
①Kieran Mc Morrow and Werner R ger,“An Analysis of EU Growth Trends, With a Particular Focus on Germany ,France, Italy, and the UK”, National Institute Economic Review No. 199, 2007, p. 89, http://ner.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/199/1/82.
②Horst Siebert,“Labor Market Rigidities: At the Root of Unemployment in Europe”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 11, No. 3, 1997, pp. 37-54.
①European Commission: Eurostat Regional Yearbook 2009, Office of Official Publications of the European Communities, 2009, p. 40.
②数据来源:OECD Dataset FTPT Employment,http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx, Accessed Oct 12, 2009.
③AndréSapir et al., An Agenda for a Growing Europe: Making the EU System Deliver, Report of an Independent High-level Group Established on the Initiative of the President of the European Commission, 2003, p. 25.
①数据来源:OECD Dataset FTPT Employment,http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx, Accessed Oct 12, 2009.
②European Commission:Eurostat Regional Yearbook 2009, Office of Official Publications of the European Communicaties, 2009, p. 45.
③欧盟工作时间指令是一系列有关工作时间法令的集合,包括:1993年理事会指令93/104/EC,官方公报L307, 13/12/1993第18-24页;2000年欧洲议会和理事会的指令2000/34/EC。
④H. Siebert,“Labor Market Rigidities: At the Root of Unemployment in Europe”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 11, No. 3, 1997, pp. 37-54.
⑤丹麦的灵活保障模式又被称为“金三角”(The Golden Triangle),包含高就业流动、完善的社会保障体系和积极的劳动力市场政策三个方面。
⑥王鹤:“欧洲经济模式评析——从效率与公正的视角”,欧洲研究工作论文,2008年第1期,第19页。
①D. W. Jorgenson, M. S. Ho, and K. J. Stiroh,“A Retrospective Look at the US. Productivity Growth Resurgence”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.22, No. 1, 2008, p. 4.
②数据来源:OECD STAN数据库。
①《马克思恩格斯全集》第四卷,人民出版社1958年版,第144页。
②R. M. Solow,“Technical Change and the Aggreagate Production Function”, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 39, No. 3, 1957, p. 312.
①OECD, Productivity Manual: A Guide to the Measurement of Industry-level and Aggregate Productivity Growth,Paris,2001, p. 125.
②OECD, The Measurement of Scientific and Technological Activities: Standard Practice for Surveys of Research and Experimental Development– Frascati Manual 1993, 1993, p. 29.
③European Commission,“The EU Economy: 2007 Review”, European economy, No. 8, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs, 2007, p. 55.
④P. Aghion and P. Howitt,“Joseph Schumpeter Lecture-Appropriate Growth Policy: A Unifying Framework”Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 4, No. 2-3, 2006, pp. 269-314.
⑤D. Acemoglu, P. Aghion and F. Zilibotti,“Distance to Frontier, Selection and Economic Growth”, Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 4, No. 1, 2006, pp. 37-74.
①技术创新指标表示方法参考K. McMorrow, W. Roger and A.Turrini,“The EU-US Total Factor Productivity Gap: An Industry Perspective”, CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 7237, 2008, p. 10.
②J. Gwartney and R. Lawson, Economic Freedom of the World: 2009 Annual Report, Economic Freedom Network, http://www.freetheworld.com/release.html.
③本节建立的三个模型参考:K. McMorrow, W. Roger and A.Turrini,“The EU-US Total Factor Productivity Gap: An Industry Perspective”, CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 7237, 2008, pp. 10-20.
①斯塔勒纳、克瑞斯提纳认为R&D对TFP增长率的影响具有两期的时滞。See: Steliana Sandu and Cristina Modoran,“The Impact of R&D Investent on Productivity”,Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Vol. 2, Issue 10, 2008, p. 4.
①World Intellectual Property Organization, World Patent Report: A Statistical Review, 2008, pp. 68-69.
①P. Aghion, C. Meghir and J. Vandenbussche,“Growth, Education and Distance to Technological Frontier”, mineo,See: A. Sapir, et al., An Agenda For a Growing Europe: Making the EU System Deliver, Report of an Independent High-level Group Established on the Initiative of the President of the European Commission, 2003, p. 33.
②数据来源:OECD, Education at a Glance 2007: OECD Indicators, 2007, p. 207, Table B.2.3.
③数据来源:OECD, Education at a Glance 2007: OECD Indicators, 2007, p. 208, Table B.2.4.
④数据来源:OECD, Education at a Glance 2007: OECD Indicators, 2007, p. 221, Table.B.3.2b.
①http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/25/world/europe/25iht-union.4.16484744.html _r=1, Accessed Jan 12, 2010.
②http://mcn.chinareviewnews.com/doc/1003/8/8/1/100388169.html coluid=70&kindid=1850&docid=100388169, Accessed Jan 12, 2010.
①丁纯:“欧洲劳动力市场的困境、成因与改革”,《国际经济评论》,2006年第11-12期,第62页。
①薛彦平:“欧盟资本市场的基本特点与发展趋势”,《国外社会科学》,2009年第3期,第94页。
②按照OECD的定义,信息通信产业(ICT产业)是指“以电子方式获取、传输、显示数据和信息的制造业和服务业的总和”,参阅:OECD, Measuring the Information Economy 2002,2002, p. 81.
①http://www.oecd.org/document/11/0,3343,en_2649_34449_2766475_1_1_1_1,00.html, Accessed Jan 20, 2010.
②http://www.oecd.org/sti/ipr-statistics, Accessed Jan 20, 2010.
①Line Vogt,“The EU’s Single Market: At Your Service”OECD Economic Department Working Paper, No. 449, 2005, p. 2.
①European Council,“Presidency Conclusions”, 23 and 24 March 2000, p. 1.
②European Commission, Facing the Challenge: the Lisbon Strategy for Growth and Employment. Report from the High Level Group Chaired by Wim Kok, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2004, p. 12.
③European Commission, ibid, p. 13.
①Zhou Hong,“A chinese Perspective on the EU’s Lisbon Strategy”, Review of Economic Conditions in Italy, June, 2007, p. 88.
②European Commission, Facing the Challenge: the Lisbon Strategy for Growth and Employment. Report from the High Level Group Chaired by Wim Kok, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2004, p. 6.
③Zhou Hong,“A chinese Perspective on the EU’s Lisbon Strategy”, Review of Economic Conditions in Italy, June, 2007, p. 89.
①European Commission, Strategic Report on the Renewed Lisbon Strategy for Growth and Jobs: Launching the New Cycle (2008 ~ 2010), 2007, p. 15.
②EurActiv,“Sweden admits Lisbon Agenda‘failure’”, 03 June 2009, http://www.euractiv.com/en/priorities/sweden-admits-lisbon-agenda-failure/article-182797, Accessed Mar 20, 2010.
①European Commission, i2010- A European Information Society for Growth and Employment, 2005, p. 4.
②就业抑制是指欧洲的社会经济制度以及劳动力市场政策抑制了大陆的创业精神和市场机制,就业激励是指激励企业家精神,提升就业能力,强化就业适应性等。参阅:杨伟国,苏静:《欧洲就业战略:从就业抑制到就业激励》,《欧洲研究》2005年第6期,第54-66页。
③European Council,“Presidency Conclusions”, 23 and 24 March, 2006.
④欧盟委员会经济与财政总司劳动力市场改革数据库(LABREF),提供欧盟各成员国劳动力市场的改革措施。See: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/indicators/labref.
⑤[法]格扎维埃.范登.布朗德:“欧洲老龄化问题对策述评——迈向积极的老年人口就业政策”,周愚译,《经济社会体制比较》,2007年第1期,第130页。
⑥丁纯:“欧盟劳动力市场的困境、成因与改革”,《国际经济评论》,2006年11-12期,第63-64页。
①European Commission, Raising Productivity Growth: Key Messages from the European Competitiveness Report, 2007, p. 69.
②欧盟标准成本模型(简称SCM),用来测度法律规章制度等对企业造成行政负担成本,相应的计算方法是:企业行政负担成本等于平均每件行政事务的成本乘以每年行政事务的总数量;每件行政事务成本等于平均每小时劳动成本乘以每件行政事务所耗费的时间。
③European Commission, Raising Productivity Growth: Key Messages from the European Competitiveness Report, 2007, p. 70.
④European Council,“Presidency Conclusions”, 23 and 24 March, 2006.
⑤European Commission, Raising Productivity Growth: Key Messages from the European Competitiveness Report, 2007, pp. 53-61.
⑥HP滤波法是由Hodrick和Prescott于1980年在分析美国战后的经济景气时提出,理论基础是时间序列的谱分析方法,目前广泛的应用于对宏观经济趋势的分析中,平滑系数λ取值100.
⑦由于2008年开始爆发全球金融危机,欧盟潜在经济增长率受到严重影响,所以本节选取2000-2007年期间考察里斯本战略以来欧盟经济增长分析的时间段。
①吴弦:“金融风暴与欧盟的应对行动协调——内在动因与主要举措述析”,《欧洲研究》,2009年第1期,第24页。
②数据来源:Eurostat数据库。
③王鹤:“欧盟经济形势:深度衰退与数字欧洲计划”。见周弘主编:《世界金融危机冲击下的欧洲(欧洲发展报告2009~2010)》,社科文献出版社2010年版,第52页。
①European Commission,“European Economic Forcast Autumn 2009”, European Economy, No. 10, 2009, p. 21.
②G. J. Koopman and I. P. Szekely,“The Financial Crisis and Potential Growth: Policy Challenges for Europe”, ECFIC Economic Briefs, June,2009, p. 3, http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications, Accessed Mar 20th, 2010
①European Commission, Europe 2020: A Strategy for Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Growth, Communication from the Commisison, 2010, p.3.
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