摘要
经济周期作为宏观经济学研究的重要内容之一,一直为众多国内外宏观经济学家所关注。有关经济周期的研究主要包括两个基本问题:协动性和非对称性。在经济衰退时,投资、产出、消费、就业等主要经济变量表现为同时期的下降;在经济繁荣时,他们又表现为同时期的上升,这种现象被认为是经济变量的协动性(comovement)。
上世纪80年代,在新古典主义经济学发展的后期,新自由主义经济学派提出了真实经济周期(RBC)理论,该理论为经济学的发展做出了重大贡献,特别是该理论中的动态一般均衡分析方法。但是,世上没有绝对完美的东西,一些经济学家对RBC理论提出了批判。关于该理论把技术冲击作为经济周期根源的结论,经济学界对此表示质疑,特别是以曼昆为代表的新凯恩斯主义学派。本文基于我国各个经济部门的实际数据,对技术冲击的存在性和技术冲击与经济周期的相关性问题做出分析。
本文主要采用实证分析方法,借助计量经济学的技术手段,对我国各部门主要行业的真实变量和技术冲击做了分析。结果表明,我国各行业经济周期存在着较强的协动性,而工业各行业的技术冲击部分的协动性较弱。这一结果证明了经济学界对RBC理论中技术冲击的批判,同时也否定了一些国内学者关于技术冲击是我国经济周期性波动的主要因素的结论。
Business cycle, the important part of macroeconomics, has been the concern of many domestic and international macro-economists. The economic cycle research includes two basic issues: the Society of mobility and non-symmetry. In the period of economic recession, investment, output, consumption, employment and other key economic variables showed a decline at the same time. While in the economic prosperity, they showed a rise. This phenomenon is considered as the comovement of economic variables (comovement).
In 1980s, when the neo-classical economics is in the later stage of development, neo-liberal economic school put forward the Real Business Cycle (RBC) theory. the theory made a great contribution to the economics development, especially the theory of dynamic general equilibrium analysis. However, there is no absolute perfect thing in the world, some economists criticize the RBC theory. This theory considers the impact of technology as the cause of the economic cycle. Some economists questioned the conclusion, particularly the New Keynesian school which is represented by Mankiw. On the base of real data of china’s economic sectors, the article analysis the presence of technology shocks and the relevant issues between technology shocks and business cycles in China.
In this paper, empirical analysis and theoretical analysis are combined to be used in the analysis of real variables and technology shocks in major industry sectors of China. The results showed that there is a strong co-moving nature in all sectors of economic cycles in China, except industrial sectors. The results not only testify the critique of technology shock of the RBC theory, but also deny that technology shock is the main factor of China's economic cycle.
引文
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