中国地区降水变化的模拟评估及其未来情景预估
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摘要
本文利用全球气候模式及区域气候模式来研究中国地区降水变化的模拟评估及其未来情景下的预估。
利用IPCC第四次报告的13个新一代全球气候系统模式结果对中国近40年(1961—2000年)降水的模拟能力进行评估,与同时段中国区域550个站点逐日降水量资料的对比分析表明:大部分最新全球模式能模拟出中国降水的年变化及气候场空间分布特征,但模拟的区域性差别较大,模式对东部地区的模拟效果较好,但在青藏高原东侧、高原南部存在虚假的降水高值区。分析不同情景下(高排放SRES A2、中等排放A1B、低排放B1)中国地区未来100年的降水变化结果表明,在A2、A1B和B1情景下,年降水量预估增加依次为11%、9.6%和6.4%,平均达7.5%。降水变化的地理分布显示:降水的增加主要集中在北方,降水在冬、春季增加较显著。模式预估结果的不确定性分析表明,新一代全球系统模式对21世纪中国降水变化预估的可靠性得到了提高。
基于降尺度技术的变网格模式LMDZ-regional对中国中东部地区近40年的降水模拟结果表明,经过局地加密处理的LMDZ-regional模式优于全球模式,它能较好地模拟出中国中东部地区降水的年变化、日降水量频数分布变化及气候场空间分布特征,但模拟的区域性差别也较大,模式对该地区东部的模拟效果较西部好。长江以北地区降水量模拟偏大,以南地区降水量模拟偏小。模式能模拟出日最大降水量GEV分布的三个参数及重现期的空间分布特征,但中心值位置偏北。高排放SRES A2情景下中国中东部地区21世纪中期的降水变化结果表明,未来中国中东部地区冬季微量降水天数增加,其它降水天数减少,而夏季则呈现出微量降水及强降水天数均增加,其它降水天数减少的趋势。降水变化的地理分布显示:年平均降水在长江以北地区有小幅度增加,而在长江以南地区呈减少趋势,减小范围在0-0.4mm/day之间。未来湖北中部、四川与陕西交界处等地区日最大降水量均值减小,在河南、江苏北部地区30年一遇的日最大降水量值增加幅度较大,可达到40mm/day。
Using the outputs as simulated by GCM models provided by DDC of IPCC and RCM model, We analyze the simulation and future changes of precipitation under different scenarios in China.
Compared with daily precipitation of 550 stations in China, We assess the simulation capacity of thirteen GCM models. Most models can simulate the inter-annual change and spatial distribution of climate field, but the simulation of the East is better than other areas, and there are false high values in the east and south of Plateau. The situation of precipitation change in China in the future 100 years under SRES A2、A1B and B1 greenhouse gas is analyzed. The results show that the precipitation would be increased by 11%、9.6% and 6.4% at the end of 21st century with the mean of 7.5% .The distributions of precipitation in China were analyzed in this paper. And the distributions of precipitation are almost similar in all the scenarios too. The results indicated that the distribution of increased precipitation in China is in northern of China, there are obviously increase of precipitation in north of China、northwest and northeast, and there are a little increase in the south of Yangtze River. The increase of precipitation is larger in winter and spring. Compare with results of Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-TAR), the ensemble standard deviation of different models suggests that the uncertainty of the projected precipitation changes over China in the 21~(st) century has been improved.
A variable-grid atmospheric general circulation model, the LMDZ, with a local zoom over the middle-east area of China is used to investigate the changes of precipitation at present and future (we called LMDZ-regional in this paper). LMDZ-regional model can simulate the inter-annual change、frequency of daily precipitation and spatial distribution of climate field, but the simulation of the East is better than other areas. Precipitation is larger than observer in the north of Yangtze-River, and less in the south. The model can also simulation changes of parameters and return values of GEV distribution of daily maximum precipitation, but the center locates northerly. The situation of precipitation change in middle-east area of China in future under SRES A2、A1B and B1 greenhouse gas is analyzed. The results show that frequency of trace precipitation will increase in winter, but frequency of both trace and strong precipitation will decrease. The distributions of precipitation in middle-east area of China were analyzed in this paper. The results indicated that annual average precipitation will increase a little in the north of Yangtze River, and decrease in the north from zero to 0.4mm/day. Daily maximum precipitation in the center of Hubei、the junction of sichuan and shanxi will decrease, and increase more in 30-yr return values in Henan and northern of Jiangsu, the increases will arrive 40mm/day.
利用IPCC第四次报告的13个新一代全球气候系统模式结果对中国近40年(1961—2000年)降水的模拟能力进行评估,与同时段中国区域550个站点逐日降水量资料的对比分析表明:大部分最新全球模式能模拟出中国降水的年变化及气候场空间分布特征,但模拟的区域性差别较大,模式对东部地区的模拟效果较好,但在青藏高原东侧、高原南部存在虚假的降水高值区。分析不同情景下(高排放SRES A2、中等排放A1B、低排放B1)中国地区未来100年的降水变化结果表明,在A2、A1B和B1情景下,年降水量预估增加依次为11%、9.6%和6.4%,平均达7.5%。降水变化的地理分布显示:降水的增加主要集中在北方,降水在冬、春季增加较显著。模式预估结果的不确定性分析表明,新一代全球系统模式对21世纪中国降水变化预估的可靠性得到了提高。
基于降尺度技术的变网格模式LMDZ-regional对中国中东部地区近40年的降水模拟结果表明,经过局地加密处理的LMDZ-regional模式优于全球模式,它能较好地模拟出中国中东部地区降水的年变化、日降水量频数分布变化及气候场空间分布特征,但模拟的区域性差别也较大,模式对该地区东部的模拟效果较西部好。长江以北地区降水量模拟偏大,以南地区降水量模拟偏小。模式能模拟出日最大降水量GEV分布的三个参数及重现期的空间分布特征,但中心值位置偏北。高排放SRES A2情景下中国中东部地区21世纪中期的降水变化结果表明,未来中国中东部地区冬季微量降水天数增加,其它降水天数减少,而夏季则呈现出微量降水及强降水天数均增加,其它降水天数减少的趋势。降水变化的地理分布显示:年平均降水在长江以北地区有小幅度增加,而在长江以南地区呈减少趋势,减小范围在0-0.4mm/day之间。未来湖北中部、四川与陕西交界处等地区日最大降水量均值减小,在河南、江苏北部地区30年一遇的日最大降水量值增加幅度较大,可达到40mm/day。
Using the outputs as simulated by GCM models provided by DDC of IPCC and RCM model, We analyze the simulation and future changes of precipitation under different scenarios in China.
Compared with daily precipitation of 550 stations in China, We assess the simulation capacity of thirteen GCM models. Most models can simulate the inter-annual change and spatial distribution of climate field, but the simulation of the East is better than other areas, and there are false high values in the east and south of Plateau. The situation of precipitation change in China in the future 100 years under SRES A2、A1B and B1 greenhouse gas is analyzed. The results show that the precipitation would be increased by 11%、9.6% and 6.4% at the end of 21st century with the mean of 7.5% .The distributions of precipitation in China were analyzed in this paper. And the distributions of precipitation are almost similar in all the scenarios too. The results indicated that the distribution of increased precipitation in China is in northern of China, there are obviously increase of precipitation in north of China、northwest and northeast, and there are a little increase in the south of Yangtze River. The increase of precipitation is larger in winter and spring. Compare with results of Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-TAR), the ensemble standard deviation of different models suggests that the uncertainty of the projected precipitation changes over China in the 21~(st) century has been improved.
A variable-grid atmospheric general circulation model, the LMDZ, with a local zoom over the middle-east area of China is used to investigate the changes of precipitation at present and future (we called LMDZ-regional in this paper). LMDZ-regional model can simulate the inter-annual change、frequency of daily precipitation and spatial distribution of climate field, but the simulation of the East is better than other areas. Precipitation is larger than observer in the north of Yangtze-River, and less in the south. The model can also simulation changes of parameters and return values of GEV distribution of daily maximum precipitation, but the center locates northerly. The situation of precipitation change in middle-east area of China in future under SRES A2、A1B and B1 greenhouse gas is analyzed. The results show that frequency of trace precipitation will increase in winter, but frequency of both trace and strong precipitation will decrease. The distributions of precipitation in middle-east area of China were analyzed in this paper. The results indicated that annual average precipitation will increase a little in the north of Yangtze River, and decrease in the north from zero to 0.4mm/day. Daily maximum precipitation in the center of Hubei、the junction of sichuan and shanxi will decrease, and increase more in 30-yr return values in Henan and northern of Jiangsu, the increases will arrive 40mm/day.
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