我国税收与区域经济发展的实证研究
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摘要
税收作为国家宏观经济调控的主要手段之一,能够引导生产要素的流动,资源的有效配置,从而达到生产力的合理布局。因此税收对于区域经济的发展有着至关重要的影响。但是由于我国经济发展的不平衡性,对于不同经济发展程度的区域,税收将有着怎么样的影响将是文本的研究重点。
本文根据我国区域经济发展情况,并且结合地理位置把我国分为东中西三个区域,数据选用1998年-2007年《中国统计年鉴》的数据对于我国全国以及31个省市自治区进行研究。本文首先通过一般描述性统计分析了我国三大区域的经济以及税收现状。研究发现,我国各区域的经济发展以及税收状况有着比较显著的不同。因此在实证部分,本文将对不同区域中税收的影响进行研究。
本文实证主要分为两部分研究,第一部分主要通过线性规划的方法引入非税变量,通过面板数据的方法研究税收负担、税收结构对区域经济发展的影响;第二部分是通过聚类分析的方法兼顾定性分析研究税收竞争与区域经济发展的影响。希望通过对税收负担、税收结构以及税收竞争这三方面的研究,全面地分析税收对区域经济的影响,为我国地区经济发展以及减缓区域经济发展不平衡提供一定的理论基础。
通过实证研究,本文得出了东部地区和中部地区税收负担和税收结构对经济发展都具有影响,西部地区税收结构对经济发展具有影响;税收竞争促进区域经济发展的实证结果。在此基础之上,结合中央提出的2009年稳定较快经济发展的目标,本文将财税政策意见分为宏观层面和税种层面两部分,宏观层面的财税政策意见主要是从大方向上把握税收政策的制定;而税种层面的政策意见主要是结合我国近几年的税制改革。从细分的税种上着手,从而为促进我国的经济发展提供一些税收意见,并且在最后结合现行的税收改革分析了其对企业的影响。
Taxation is the main way to adjust the macro economy. It can guide the flow of agent of production and distribution of resource so that the production capability can be suitably planned. Therefore taxation is important for regional economic development. But the economic development is not balanced in our country. This article is focused on how taxation impacts on different economic develop region.
According to the difference of economic development condition,we apart the country into three regions. The data is from 1999-2007 Chinese statistical yearbook. First we conclude that the regional economic development and taxation condition is different by using descriptive statistic. In the second part, we will analyze the impact of taxation on the regional development.
The empirical research is divided into two parts to analysis the relationship between tax burden,tax structure,tax competition and regional economic development. The first part focuses on the relationship between tax burden , tax structure and economic development by using panel data model and linear programming analysis. The second part focuses on the relationship between tax competition and economic development by cluster analysis. Such can display a whole picture of how tax impacts on the economy and gives us the theoretical principle of economic development and balancing.
After the empirical research,we conclude that the tax burden and tax structure have relationship with economic development in east and middle region,the tax structure have relationship with economic development in west region. According to the governance target of stable and quick development in 2009,this article divides the political suggestion into macro and taxation levels. The macro suggestions give the direction of tax policy maker. The taxation suggestions give detail ideas of items of taxation in order to develop our economy. And we analysis the impact of ongoing tax reform on the companies.
本文根据我国区域经济发展情况,并且结合地理位置把我国分为东中西三个区域,数据选用1998年-2007年《中国统计年鉴》的数据对于我国全国以及31个省市自治区进行研究。本文首先通过一般描述性统计分析了我国三大区域的经济以及税收现状。研究发现,我国各区域的经济发展以及税收状况有着比较显著的不同。因此在实证部分,本文将对不同区域中税收的影响进行研究。
本文实证主要分为两部分研究,第一部分主要通过线性规划的方法引入非税变量,通过面板数据的方法研究税收负担、税收结构对区域经济发展的影响;第二部分是通过聚类分析的方法兼顾定性分析研究税收竞争与区域经济发展的影响。希望通过对税收负担、税收结构以及税收竞争这三方面的研究,全面地分析税收对区域经济的影响,为我国地区经济发展以及减缓区域经济发展不平衡提供一定的理论基础。
通过实证研究,本文得出了东部地区和中部地区税收负担和税收结构对经济发展都具有影响,西部地区税收结构对经济发展具有影响;税收竞争促进区域经济发展的实证结果。在此基础之上,结合中央提出的2009年稳定较快经济发展的目标,本文将财税政策意见分为宏观层面和税种层面两部分,宏观层面的财税政策意见主要是从大方向上把握税收政策的制定;而税种层面的政策意见主要是结合我国近几年的税制改革。从细分的税种上着手,从而为促进我国的经济发展提供一些税收意见,并且在最后结合现行的税收改革分析了其对企业的影响。
Taxation is the main way to adjust the macro economy. It can guide the flow of agent of production and distribution of resource so that the production capability can be suitably planned. Therefore taxation is important for regional economic development. But the economic development is not balanced in our country. This article is focused on how taxation impacts on different economic develop region.
According to the difference of economic development condition,we apart the country into three regions. The data is from 1999-2007 Chinese statistical yearbook. First we conclude that the regional economic development and taxation condition is different by using descriptive statistic. In the second part, we will analyze the impact of taxation on the regional development.
The empirical research is divided into two parts to analysis the relationship between tax burden,tax structure,tax competition and regional economic development. The first part focuses on the relationship between tax burden , tax structure and economic development by using panel data model and linear programming analysis. The second part focuses on the relationship between tax competition and economic development by cluster analysis. Such can display a whole picture of how tax impacts on the economy and gives us the theoretical principle of economic development and balancing.
After the empirical research,we conclude that the tax burden and tax structure have relationship with economic development in east and middle region,the tax structure have relationship with economic development in west region. According to the governance target of stable and quick development in 2009,this article divides the political suggestion into macro and taxation levels. The macro suggestions give the direction of tax policy maker. The taxation suggestions give detail ideas of items of taxation in order to develop our economy. And we analysis the impact of ongoing tax reform on the companies.
引文
[1]路云,中国税收与经济增长模式及其实证分析,经济论坛,2005,(2):6-7
[2]马拴友,税收结构与经济增长,税务与经济,2002,(1):4-6
[3]刘军,我国税制结构、税收负担与经济增长的实证分析,财政研究,2006,(2):59-62
[4]宋效中,赵利民,宏观税负与中国经济增长,探索,2005,(3):100-104
[5]范广军,我国税收结构与经济增长的相关性分析,经济师,2004,(2):213-213,260
[6]刘溶沧,马拴友,赤字、国债与经济增长关系的实证分析——兼评积极财政政策是否有挤出效应,经济研究,2001,(2) 14-17
[7]李绍荣,耿莹,中国的税收结构、经济增长与收入分配,经济研究,2005,(5)118-126
[8]杨志勇的,国内税收竞争理论:结合我国现实的分析,税务研究,2003,(6),24-26
[9]黄春蕾,中国国内横向税收竞争分析,经济纵横,2003,(9),20-23
[10]潘贤掌,黄耀军,我国各地区税负差异及其影响因素的实证分析,经济研究,1998,(11),69-73
[11]陈娟,吴国松,区域经济发展差异的税收分析,商业经济与管理,2003,3,(137),38-41
[12]曹燕萍,付淑琴,区域经济发展与税收资源的合理利用,企业经济,2005,(4),135-138
[13]刘星,区域经济发展与税收资源的合理利用,企业经济,2005,(4),137-138
[14]张伦俊,区域经济发展与税收贡献的比较分析,财贸经济,2006,(2),69-72
[15] Marsden Kenth,Links between Taxes and Economic Growth some Empirical Evidence,World Banking Working paper,No 1605,19831
[16] Koester,Reinchard B. ,and Komendi,Roger C.,Taxation,Aggregate Activity and Economic Growth: Further Cross– Country Evidence on Some Supply– Side Hypotheses,Economic Inquiry,1989,Vol. XXVII,367-386
[17] Plosser,The search for growth in Policies for Long Run Growth,symposium series,1993 Kansas City: Federal Reserve of Kansas City
[18] Stokey,Nancy and Sergio Rebelo1Growth Effects of Flat - Rate Taxes,Journal of Political Economy,1995,vol1103(June) ,519-5501
[19] Wang ping and Chong K Yip1Taxation and Economic Growth the Case of Taiwan,American Journal of Economics and sociology,1992,vol 51: 317-3321
[20] Capolupo,R1Output Taxation,Human Cap ital and Growth,The Manchester School,2000,Vol168,166–1831
[21]格雷纳,财政政策与经济增长,(2000),北京,经济科学出版社,1113-1341
[22] Bleaney Michael,Gemmell Norman and Kneller Richard,Testing the Endogenous Growth Model: Public Expenditure,Taxation,and Growth over the Long Run,Canadian Journal of Economics,2001,(134),36-571
[23] Daveri Francesco and Tabellini Guido,Unemployment,Growth and Taxation in Industrial Countries,IGIER ( Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research) ,Bocconi University,working paper,1997,No11221
[24] Devereux,Michael B & Love,David R F.,The Dynamic Effects of Government Spending Policies in a Two-Sector Endogenous Growth Model,Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,Ohio State University Press,1995,27(1),56-232
[25] Giancarlo Corsetti,Nouriel Roubini,Optimal Government Spending and Taxation in Economic Growth Models,www.nber.org.U.S.A,1996.
[26]瓦勒斯·奥茨,辖区间经济竞争:有效性的增强还是扭曲?,财政联邦主义,中国社会科学出版社,1999,1-698
[27] Wilson,John D.,Theories of Tax Competition,National Tax Journal,Vol. 52 No. 2 (1999),269 - 304.
[28] John Douglas Wilsona,David E.Wildasin,Capital Tax Competition:Bane or Boo,Journal of Public Economics(88),2004,1065-1091.
[29] Marko Kothenburger,Tax Competition in a Fiscal Union with Decentralized Leadership,Journal of Urban Economics (55),2004,498-513.
[30]国家税务总局,税收知识栏,http://www.chinatax.gov.cn/n8136506/n8136608/n8138877/n8138997/n8353323/index.html
[31]吴黄鹭,我国国内横向税收竞争研究,硕士学位论文,厦门:厦门大学,2006
[32]黄春蕾,当前国内横向税收竞争的实证分析,税务与经济,2004,(1)113-115.
[33]范广军,边际税率与我国区域经济发展的相关性分析,河南大学学报,2004,(9) 54-56
[34]苏小燕,我国区域性税负差异的实证研究及均衡发展政策选择,硕士学位论文,苏州:苏州大学,2005
[35] Branson and Lovell,A Growth Maximising Tax Structure for New Zealand,International Tax and Public Finance[J],2001,8,129-146
[36]石文雅,我国政府间税收竞争问题研究,硕士学位论文,大连:东北财经大学,2003
[37] http://baike.baidu.com/view/2058641.htm
[2]马拴友,税收结构与经济增长,税务与经济,2002,(1):4-6
[3]刘军,我国税制结构、税收负担与经济增长的实证分析,财政研究,2006,(2):59-62
[4]宋效中,赵利民,宏观税负与中国经济增长,探索,2005,(3):100-104
[5]范广军,我国税收结构与经济增长的相关性分析,经济师,2004,(2):213-213,260
[6]刘溶沧,马拴友,赤字、国债与经济增长关系的实证分析——兼评积极财政政策是否有挤出效应,经济研究,2001,(2) 14-17
[7]李绍荣,耿莹,中国的税收结构、经济增长与收入分配,经济研究,2005,(5)118-126
[8]杨志勇的,国内税收竞争理论:结合我国现实的分析,税务研究,2003,(6),24-26
[9]黄春蕾,中国国内横向税收竞争分析,经济纵横,2003,(9),20-23
[10]潘贤掌,黄耀军,我国各地区税负差异及其影响因素的实证分析,经济研究,1998,(11),69-73
[11]陈娟,吴国松,区域经济发展差异的税收分析,商业经济与管理,2003,3,(137),38-41
[12]曹燕萍,付淑琴,区域经济发展与税收资源的合理利用,企业经济,2005,(4),135-138
[13]刘星,区域经济发展与税收资源的合理利用,企业经济,2005,(4),137-138
[14]张伦俊,区域经济发展与税收贡献的比较分析,财贸经济,2006,(2),69-72
[15] Marsden Kenth,Links between Taxes and Economic Growth some Empirical Evidence,World Banking Working paper,No 1605,19831
[16] Koester,Reinchard B. ,and Komendi,Roger C.,Taxation,Aggregate Activity and Economic Growth: Further Cross– Country Evidence on Some Supply– Side Hypotheses,Economic Inquiry,1989,Vol. XXVII,367-386
[17] Plosser,The search for growth in Policies for Long Run Growth,symposium series,1993 Kansas City: Federal Reserve of Kansas City
[18] Stokey,Nancy and Sergio Rebelo1Growth Effects of Flat - Rate Taxes,Journal of Political Economy,1995,vol1103(June) ,519-5501
[19] Wang ping and Chong K Yip1Taxation and Economic Growth the Case of Taiwan,American Journal of Economics and sociology,1992,vol 51: 317-3321
[20] Capolupo,R1Output Taxation,Human Cap ital and Growth,The Manchester School,2000,Vol168,166–1831
[21]格雷纳,财政政策与经济增长,(2000),北京,经济科学出版社,1113-1341
[22] Bleaney Michael,Gemmell Norman and Kneller Richard,Testing the Endogenous Growth Model: Public Expenditure,Taxation,and Growth over the Long Run,Canadian Journal of Economics,2001,(134),36-571
[23] Daveri Francesco and Tabellini Guido,Unemployment,Growth and Taxation in Industrial Countries,IGIER ( Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research) ,Bocconi University,working paper,1997,No11221
[24] Devereux,Michael B & Love,David R F.,The Dynamic Effects of Government Spending Policies in a Two-Sector Endogenous Growth Model,Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,Ohio State University Press,1995,27(1),56-232
[25] Giancarlo Corsetti,Nouriel Roubini,Optimal Government Spending and Taxation in Economic Growth Models,www.nber.org.U.S.A,1996.
[26]瓦勒斯·奥茨,辖区间经济竞争:有效性的增强还是扭曲?,财政联邦主义,中国社会科学出版社,1999,1-698
[27] Wilson,John D.,Theories of Tax Competition,National Tax Journal,Vol. 52 No. 2 (1999),269 - 304.
[28] John Douglas Wilsona,David E.Wildasin,Capital Tax Competition:Bane or Boo,Journal of Public Economics(88),2004,1065-1091.
[29] Marko Kothenburger,Tax Competition in a Fiscal Union with Decentralized Leadership,Journal of Urban Economics (55),2004,498-513.
[30]国家税务总局,税收知识栏,http://www.chinatax.gov.cn/n8136506/n8136608/n8138877/n8138997/n8353323/index.html
[31]吴黄鹭,我国国内横向税收竞争研究,硕士学位论文,厦门:厦门大学,2006
[32]黄春蕾,当前国内横向税收竞争的实证分析,税务与经济,2004,(1)113-115.
[33]范广军,边际税率与我国区域经济发展的相关性分析,河南大学学报,2004,(9) 54-56
[34]苏小燕,我国区域性税负差异的实证研究及均衡发展政策选择,硕士学位论文,苏州:苏州大学,2005
[35] Branson and Lovell,A Growth Maximising Tax Structure for New Zealand,International Tax and Public Finance[J],2001,8,129-146
[36]石文雅,我国政府间税收竞争问题研究,硕士学位论文,大连:东北财经大学,2003
[37] http://baike.baidu.com/view/2058641.htm