应张长输管道工程项目风险管理研究
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摘要
长输管道点多线长的自身特点和外部地理条件、环境的影响,在建设过程中存在很多风险。应张天然气输气管道工程项目对提高地区人民生活质量,促进经济发展和构建和谐社会起到积极的推动作用,该项目的良好管理和顺利实施对调整地区能源结构、节约能源、保护环境也具有重大意义。应张天然气输气管道工程项目是一个大型的复杂工程项目,存在许多不确定的因素,在探讨长输管道工程项目及其风险管理的基础上,借鉴国外长输管道工程项目风险管理的经验,参考国内长输管道工程项目的风险分析方法及管理手段,进一步分析应张天然气输气管道工程项目的风险,深入研究风险应对措施,为该项目在风险管理方面提供有益的指导,从而实现项目实施过程中的有效风险控制,保证该项目顺利实施,使该项目实现预期的管理目标和经济目标。同时为今后同类型项目的风险管理提供帮助,对其他类型工程项目的风险管理也有参考作用。
本文在研究长输管道工程管理模式的基础上,探讨长输管道风险管理特点,根据应张天然气输气管道工程实际情况,分析了该项目面临的风险管理问题。论文首先对国外管道事故进行统计分析,引进国外风险管理经验,然后以风险识别、风险评价、风险应对为主线展开研究。分析应张天然气输气管道工程风险识别的依据,采用图表并用的方式将工程招标阶段、采购阶段、施工阶段的风险因素、风险归类、风险来源进行识别;通过建立风险识别指标体系,对各阶段的风险因素进行评价,得出各阶段整体风险判断;在提出风险应对总体措施的同时,针对招标、采购和施工各阶段风险特点,提出了各阶段具体应对措施。
There're many risks involved during the whole process, regarding of special characteristics (such as it's many connections and long distance) of long-range gas pipeline and the specific geographic and environmental conditions around, The long-range pipeline gas transportation project in the Ying country and Zhangjiakou (LPTPYZ) will definitely improve the quality of people's life in this region, boost the local economy and harmonious society. A good management and implementing of this project play an important role to the local environment protection and economy development. Many uncertain factors do exist, considering the complexity and scope of this project. This paper studied not only the domestic long-range pipeline constructions and it's risk management model, but also introduced the international experiences in this field. Based on various methods of risk analysis and management, the risks of LPTPYZ and corresponding measures of risk management were analyzed. So this paper will provide very informed instructions to LPTPYZ and help it to achieve it 's risk control, management goal and economic goal. Meanwhile, this paper will provide helpful information on the risk management to the similar projects.
The risk management of long-range pipeline construction was investigated based on the study of the project management. This paper did the statistical analysis of pipeline accidents in the foreign countries, introduced the experience of international risk management. And risk recognization, Risk evaluation and risk management were employed as research tools. Evidence of risks of this project was analyzed. Risk factors, risk categorization and risk sources during project bid, purchase, construction were sorted with various graphs and tables. The risks at different stages were evaluated and both general and specific measures were suggested to manage those various risks.
(abbreviations: The Long-range Pipeline Transportation Project in the Ying country and Zhangjiakou: LPTPYZ)
本文在研究长输管道工程管理模式的基础上,探讨长输管道风险管理特点,根据应张天然气输气管道工程实际情况,分析了该项目面临的风险管理问题。论文首先对国外管道事故进行统计分析,引进国外风险管理经验,然后以风险识别、风险评价、风险应对为主线展开研究。分析应张天然气输气管道工程风险识别的依据,采用图表并用的方式将工程招标阶段、采购阶段、施工阶段的风险因素、风险归类、风险来源进行识别;通过建立风险识别指标体系,对各阶段的风险因素进行评价,得出各阶段整体风险判断;在提出风险应对总体措施的同时,针对招标、采购和施工各阶段风险特点,提出了各阶段具体应对措施。
There're many risks involved during the whole process, regarding of special characteristics (such as it's many connections and long distance) of long-range gas pipeline and the specific geographic and environmental conditions around, The long-range pipeline gas transportation project in the Ying country and Zhangjiakou (LPTPYZ) will definitely improve the quality of people's life in this region, boost the local economy and harmonious society. A good management and implementing of this project play an important role to the local environment protection and economy development. Many uncertain factors do exist, considering the complexity and scope of this project. This paper studied not only the domestic long-range pipeline constructions and it's risk management model, but also introduced the international experiences in this field. Based on various methods of risk analysis and management, the risks of LPTPYZ and corresponding measures of risk management were analyzed. So this paper will provide very informed instructions to LPTPYZ and help it to achieve it 's risk control, management goal and economic goal. Meanwhile, this paper will provide helpful information on the risk management to the similar projects.
The risk management of long-range pipeline construction was investigated based on the study of the project management. This paper did the statistical analysis of pipeline accidents in the foreign countries, introduced the experience of international risk management. And risk recognization, Risk evaluation and risk management were employed as research tools. Evidence of risks of this project was analyzed. Risk factors, risk categorization and risk sources during project bid, purchase, construction were sorted with various graphs and tables. The risks at different stages were evaluated and both general and specific measures were suggested to manage those various risks.
(abbreviations: The Long-range Pipeline Transportation Project in the Ying country and Zhangjiakou: LPTPYZ)
引文
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6.张春燕,某天然气管道工程项目风险管理实证研究,北京航空航天大学经济管理学院硕士论文[D].2004
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13.钱建华,关于中国石化油气管道发展的思考[J].油气储运,2003,22(9)
14.莫春山、陈树权,西部管道工程Q/HSE管理的探索与实践[J].石油工程建设,2007,33增刊
15.白世武,城市燃气使用手册[M].石油工业出版社,2008,10
16.顾孟迪、雷鹏,风险管理[M].清华大学出版社2005,1
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19. Stephen Grey. Comparison of Three Approaches to Project Risk Management [R]. PMI Melbourne Chpter. Broadleaf Capital International Pty Ltd, 2000
20. Hall,Dave & Hullet, Dave.Universal Risk Project [R]. Final Report. Feb 2002
21. W.Kent Muhlbaur.“Pipeline Risk Management Manual”, Second Edition[M].,Gulf Publishing Company, Houston, Texas. 1996
22. Coulson K.E.W. Pipe corrosion-conclusion, New guidelines more accurate damage assessment, Oil Gas [J]. 1990,88(15)
23.卫杰,油气管道事故分析及胶莱管道风险评估[D].中国石油大学(华东)2007.
24. The Report of the European Gas Pipeline Incient Date Group [R]. 1970-2007.Decenmber,2008.
25.王玉梅,国外天然气管道事故分析[J].油气储运,2000,22(7)
26. Eiber,R.J.and Johns,D.J.:Outsaid force causes most natural gas pipeline failures, Oil Gas [J]. 1987,3
27.王霖(译),苏联输气管道事故原因分析及改进规划[J].国外油气储运,1991,9(3)
28.潘会彬,长输管道EPC模式下的风险管理研究[D].天津大学硕士论文,2008
29.戴颂文,国外HSE管理体系的应用状况及发展趋势[J].当代石油石化,2009(17)
30.张诗海,浅议长输管道安装工程风险管理[J].中国高新技术企业,2010(4)
31.闫峰霞、高慧临,风险评估及其在油气管道方面的应用[J].石油工业技术监督,2009(2)
32.中国石油天然气管道局,管道建设项目风险识别评估[Z].2008
33.马骅,EPC总承包模式下工程项目管理[R].中国石油天然气管道局,2002
34.常怀民,中国石油管道局项目管理研究[D].北京交通大学硕士论文,2008
2.蒋玉兰,项目风险管理发展综述[J].才智,2008,19
3.卢有杰,现代项目管理学[M].首都经济贸易大学出版社,2004,3
4.邱苑华等著,项目管理学[M].北京:科学出版社,2001
5.吕继承,中国石油西部管道工程风险管理研究[D].哈尔滨工业大学硕士论文,2007
6.张春燕,某天然气管道工程项目风险管理实证研究,北京航空航天大学经济管理学院硕士论文[D].2004
7.宋鹏,长输管道工程EPC总承包项目风险管理研究[J].中国勘察设计,2006,10
8.陈翊斌,试述工程项目风险管理的研究现状与我国的对策[J].当代经理人(中旬刊),2006,06
9.陈志华、于海丰、成虎,EPC总承包项目风险管理研究[J].建筑经济,2006,12专刊
10.王学国石映辉马金风赖永春,长输管道施工阶段的风险管理[J].石油化工建设,2007,29(4)
11.潘家华,我国管道工业当前发展中的一些问题[J].油气储运,2003,22(1)
12.赵庆华、丁友,鲁宁输油管道存在的问题及相应对策[J].油气储运,2003,22(4)
13.钱建华,关于中国石化油气管道发展的思考[J].油气储运,2003,22(9)
14.莫春山、陈树权,西部管道工程Q/HSE管理的探索与实践[J].石油工程建设,2007,33增刊
15.白世武,城市燃气使用手册[M].石油工业出版社,2008,10
16.顾孟迪、雷鹏,风险管理[M].清华大学出版社2005,1
17.中国石油天然气股份有限公司管道分公司,长输管道工程建设项目风险管理指导手册[M].石油工业出版社,2008,11
18.颜永秋,国外石油公司项目风险管理探析[N].石油天然气学报(江汉石油学院学报),2005,27(2)
19. Stephen Grey. Comparison of Three Approaches to Project Risk Management [R]. PMI Melbourne Chpter. Broadleaf Capital International Pty Ltd, 2000
20. Hall,Dave & Hullet, Dave.Universal Risk Project [R]. Final Report. Feb 2002
21. W.Kent Muhlbaur.“Pipeline Risk Management Manual”, Second Edition[M].,Gulf Publishing Company, Houston, Texas. 1996
22. Coulson K.E.W. Pipe corrosion-conclusion, New guidelines more accurate damage assessment, Oil Gas [J]. 1990,88(15)
23.卫杰,油气管道事故分析及胶莱管道风险评估[D].中国石油大学(华东)2007.
24. The Report of the European Gas Pipeline Incient Date Group [R]. 1970-2007.Decenmber,2008.
25.王玉梅,国外天然气管道事故分析[J].油气储运,2000,22(7)
26. Eiber,R.J.and Johns,D.J.:Outsaid force causes most natural gas pipeline failures, Oil Gas [J]. 1987,3
27.王霖(译),苏联输气管道事故原因分析及改进规划[J].国外油气储运,1991,9(3)
28.潘会彬,长输管道EPC模式下的风险管理研究[D].天津大学硕士论文,2008
29.戴颂文,国外HSE管理体系的应用状况及发展趋势[J].当代石油石化,2009(17)
30.张诗海,浅议长输管道安装工程风险管理[J].中国高新技术企业,2010(4)
31.闫峰霞、高慧临,风险评估及其在油气管道方面的应用[J].石油工业技术监督,2009(2)
32.中国石油天然气管道局,管道建设项目风险识别评估[Z].2008
33.马骅,EPC总承包模式下工程项目管理[R].中国石油天然气管道局,2002
34.常怀民,中国石油管道局项目管理研究[D].北京交通大学硕士论文,2008