经济剧烈波动条件下矿业企业价值评估研究
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摘要
2008年,金融危机席卷全球,世界经济格局和发展趋势与危机前相比已迥然不同。首先,经济发展趋势扑朔迷离。其次,经济增长的内在驱动力悄然变化。另外,资本市场也随着宏观经济环境的不稳定而剧烈起伏。从行业层面看,全球金融危机自2008年爆发以来,其影响是渐深渐远的,由金融业发展到汽车、地产乃至全球矿业。展望未来,金融危机后全球经济增长动力和模式已经发生变化,潜在经济增速将放缓,新的经济增长点尚未形成,经济进入寻找“再平衡”阶段。在未来一定时期内,世界经济整体上仍将处于一定程度的剧烈波动之中。这种形势下,在一个总体繁荣向上的经济周期大背景下产生的现行企业价值评估体系,第一次受到了与过去截然不同的新经济环境的严重挑战。因此,在经济剧烈波动条件下,“收益法”、“市场法”和“成本法”三种传统经典评估方法本身以及方法运用的假设前提条件、基本理论等都将受到质疑。评估界应进一步思考评估方法如何随着新的经济环境不断调整和改进,以适应新的发展需要。这对于矿业这一周期性行业中的企业价值评估更不例外。
基于上述原因,本文选择了“经济剧烈波动条件下矿业企业价值评估研究”这一题目,试图在已有研究成果的基础上,对经济剧烈波动条件下传统企业价值评估理论的适用性进行分析,并就企业价值评估方法的调整与改进等问题进行深入研究,同时重点关注其中涉及的矿业企业价值评估问题。
本文还从以下几个方面尝试进行了创新性研究:1、通过对三大评估方法的运用基础、假设、适用范围的剖析,发现传统企业价值评估方法在经济剧烈波动条件下的适用性均大幅降低,现行矿业企业价值评估理论面临严峻的挑战。从而进一步从总体思路、重点关注、具体方案、政策建议等四个方面就有关问题进行了理论探讨。2、分析研究了经济剧烈波动条件下矿业企业价值评估中的有关不确定性参数的选择确定问题,提出应借助投资决策中的风险分析技术之———敏感性分析手段,为交易双方以及相关主管部门提供决策依据。3、鉴于经济剧烈波动条件下进行矿业企业价值评估所面临的不确定性和复杂性,提出评估人员可根据情形,通过合理利用情景分析法,评估和分析矿业企业的加权价值。4、研究了经济剧烈波动条件下,特别是进入剧烈下行通道时,企业生命周期大大缩短的情形,认为可以通过合理利用退出倍数法,求得矿业企业价值。
The financial crisis swept the world in 2008, then the world economic situation and development trends have been changed dramatically than before. Firstly, world economic trends are getting confusing. Secondly, the internal driving force of economic growth is switching. Thirdly, capital markets go ups and downs along with the unstable macroeconomic environment. From the industrial perspective, since the outbreak of global financial crisis in 2008, its effects have been gradually spread from the finance industry, the automotive industry and real estate industry to global mining industry. And after this, the drivers and patterns of global economic growth have been changed after; potential economic growth will slow down; and the new economic growth point has not yet formed. So the world economy is stepping into the "rebalancing" stage. In the next period of time, the world economy as a whole will remain a certain degree of volatility. Under such circumstances, the current business valuation system generated under the background of prosperous and progressive economic cycle in an overall is facing serious challenges from quite different economic environment than before. Therefore, under the conditions of economic volatility, conditions of the assumption and the basic theories of "income approach", "market approach" and "cost approach" will be challenged. How those appraisal approaches adapt to requirements of development along with the constant adjustment and improvement of new economic environment needs to be reconsidered. There is also no exception for the business valuation in the cyclical mining industry.
Based on this, the author chooses the subject of "Research on Business Valuation of Mineral Enterprises under the Condition of Economic Violent Fluctuation", which is attempt to analyse the applicability of theories and methods for business valuation based on existing research results. Deep studies of issues like adjustment and improvement of business valuation approaches are conducted, and business valuation of mineral enterprises are mainly concerned.
This article attempts to carry out some innovative research from the following aspects. Firstly, through the analysis of applicable foundation, assumptions and scope of the three major appraisal methods, the author finds that the applicability of traditional methods of business valuation are considerably decreased under the condition of economic violent fluctuation and the existing business valuation theory of mineral enterprises is facing serious challenges. In this regard, four aspects issues, the general idea, main concerns, specific programs and policy recommendations, are discussed in further. Secondly, with regard to the problem of uncertain parameters selection in the business valuation of mineral enterprises under the condition of economic violent fluctuation, the research suggests that one of the risk analysis method in the investment decisions, the sensitivity analysis method, may generate the basis for decision making for both parties in the transaction as well as the relevant authorities. Thirdly, given the uncertainty and complexity when conducting business valuation of mineral enterprises under the condition of economic violent fluctuation, the paper suggests that the appraiser can rationally apply scenario analysis method to carry out the appraisal and analysis of the weighted value of mineral enterprises. Finally, under the condition of economic violent fluctuation, especially when it’s moving downstream of the volatility, business life cycles will be dramatically shortened. Given that, exit multiples method can reasonably be used to generate the business value of mineral enterprises.
基于上述原因,本文选择了“经济剧烈波动条件下矿业企业价值评估研究”这一题目,试图在已有研究成果的基础上,对经济剧烈波动条件下传统企业价值评估理论的适用性进行分析,并就企业价值评估方法的调整与改进等问题进行深入研究,同时重点关注其中涉及的矿业企业价值评估问题。
本文还从以下几个方面尝试进行了创新性研究:1、通过对三大评估方法的运用基础、假设、适用范围的剖析,发现传统企业价值评估方法在经济剧烈波动条件下的适用性均大幅降低,现行矿业企业价值评估理论面临严峻的挑战。从而进一步从总体思路、重点关注、具体方案、政策建议等四个方面就有关问题进行了理论探讨。2、分析研究了经济剧烈波动条件下矿业企业价值评估中的有关不确定性参数的选择确定问题,提出应借助投资决策中的风险分析技术之———敏感性分析手段,为交易双方以及相关主管部门提供决策依据。3、鉴于经济剧烈波动条件下进行矿业企业价值评估所面临的不确定性和复杂性,提出评估人员可根据情形,通过合理利用情景分析法,评估和分析矿业企业的加权价值。4、研究了经济剧烈波动条件下,特别是进入剧烈下行通道时,企业生命周期大大缩短的情形,认为可以通过合理利用退出倍数法,求得矿业企业价值。
The financial crisis swept the world in 2008, then the world economic situation and development trends have been changed dramatically than before. Firstly, world economic trends are getting confusing. Secondly, the internal driving force of economic growth is switching. Thirdly, capital markets go ups and downs along with the unstable macroeconomic environment. From the industrial perspective, since the outbreak of global financial crisis in 2008, its effects have been gradually spread from the finance industry, the automotive industry and real estate industry to global mining industry. And after this, the drivers and patterns of global economic growth have been changed after; potential economic growth will slow down; and the new economic growth point has not yet formed. So the world economy is stepping into the "rebalancing" stage. In the next period of time, the world economy as a whole will remain a certain degree of volatility. Under such circumstances, the current business valuation system generated under the background of prosperous and progressive economic cycle in an overall is facing serious challenges from quite different economic environment than before. Therefore, under the conditions of economic volatility, conditions of the assumption and the basic theories of "income approach", "market approach" and "cost approach" will be challenged. How those appraisal approaches adapt to requirements of development along with the constant adjustment and improvement of new economic environment needs to be reconsidered. There is also no exception for the business valuation in the cyclical mining industry.
Based on this, the author chooses the subject of "Research on Business Valuation of Mineral Enterprises under the Condition of Economic Violent Fluctuation", which is attempt to analyse the applicability of theories and methods for business valuation based on existing research results. Deep studies of issues like adjustment and improvement of business valuation approaches are conducted, and business valuation of mineral enterprises are mainly concerned.
This article attempts to carry out some innovative research from the following aspects. Firstly, through the analysis of applicable foundation, assumptions and scope of the three major appraisal methods, the author finds that the applicability of traditional methods of business valuation are considerably decreased under the condition of economic violent fluctuation and the existing business valuation theory of mineral enterprises is facing serious challenges. In this regard, four aspects issues, the general idea, main concerns, specific programs and policy recommendations, are discussed in further. Secondly, with regard to the problem of uncertain parameters selection in the business valuation of mineral enterprises under the condition of economic violent fluctuation, the research suggests that one of the risk analysis method in the investment decisions, the sensitivity analysis method, may generate the basis for decision making for both parties in the transaction as well as the relevant authorities. Thirdly, given the uncertainty and complexity when conducting business valuation of mineral enterprises under the condition of economic violent fluctuation, the paper suggests that the appraiser can rationally apply scenario analysis method to carry out the appraisal and analysis of the weighted value of mineral enterprises. Finally, under the condition of economic violent fluctuation, especially when it’s moving downstream of the volatility, business life cycles will be dramatically shortened. Given that, exit multiples method can reasonably be used to generate the business value of mineral enterprises.
引文
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