中国矿业城市可持续发展力指数研究
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摘要
矿业城市为我国经济建设做出了巨大贡献,但由于历史原因和现行政策的缺陷,矿业城市发展也面临很多问题。在这样的背景下,我国学者对矿业城市的四矿问题、经济转型问题和可持续发展问题进行了大量研究。但由于在进行综合评价研究时采用的多元统计方法本身的缺陷,导致综合评价结果缺乏物理意义,难以实现序列研究和截面研究结果的相互借鉴和比较。故作者以矿业城市可持续发展力指数这一综合概念为研究对象,通过一系列方法力图构造出物理意义明确的综合指数,这将有助于深入进行矿业城市可持续发展战略分析。
本文从系统论出发,结合可持续发展理论、技术创新理论和循环经济理论,提出了经济、资源、环境、社会和智力5大系统,并分别就每个系统的指标作了分类设计。在充分考虑了不同方法的优劣之后,本文结合主成分构权方法、层次分析构权方法和模糊综合法将原矿业城市可持续发展力指标体系转换成分层的指数体系,为进一步进行战略分析打下基础。
为了深入反映不同类型矿业城市可持续发展力结构差异和现状,本文在矿业城市可持续发展力指数体系的基础上,分析了各种城市在不同指数均数水平上的差异,得到的基本结论包括:①不同矿种矿业城市在五大子系统上表现存在差异;②能源类矿城可持续发展能力较好;③整体水平有待提高。
为了更好地分析矿业城市发展中存在的特点,本文在矿业城市可持续发展力指数体系的基础上,采用系统聚类法对矿业城市进行了聚类分析,按照矿业城市表现出的内在相似性将矿业城市分为6类,它们分别是:“富资源型城市”、“新兴可持续型城市”、“资源需求型城市”、“煤炭主导型城市”、“转型需求型矿业城市”和“欠可持续发展型城市”。
另外,在矿业城市可持续发展力指数体系的基础上,采用单因素方差分析探讨了矿业城市可持续发展力的演变规律。得到的基本结论包括:①矿业城市可持续发展力在地理位置上有显著差异;②发展阶段、城市规模和矿产资源上除城市规模的环境可持续发展力指数上有显著差异外,其余因素均无显著差异;③矿业城市演变规律有一定共性,这便于制定具有相对普适性的战略体系。
最后,在现状分析、聚类分析和演变规律分析的基础上,本文提出了基于EVS理论的矿业城市可持续发展战略体系。这些战略内容包括:科技主导战略、循环经济战略、接替产业战略、资源储备战略和比较优势战略。
Mining cities have made great contribution to our country’s national economic development, but owing to historical reasons and the defects of the current policies, the mining cities have confronted many problems. Under such a background, Chinese scholars have done many studies on comprehensive issues in the mining industry, economy transition and the sustainable development of mining cities. Because the multivariate statistical methods have some defects, the result of the analysis have no physical meaning, and then it is difficult for cross-section analysis or sequential analysis. Therefore, the author made the sustainable development index framework of mining cities as the research core; this will help in-depth analysis of the sustainable development strategies of mining cities.
In order to get the scientific and rational index system of mining cities, this paper constructed index system that based on the system theory, sustainable development theory, technical innovation theory, the circular economy theory. The index system has 5 subsystems which included economy, resources, environment, social and intellectual, and then this paper made a classification design of indexes for each system. After full considering the quality of different methods, the author integrated principal component weight method, hierarchical analysis weight method and fuzzy comprehensive method for transforming the normal index system to the sustainable development index framework. The sustainable development index framework is the base of strategies analysis.
In order to deeply expound the differents of structural and status between all types of mining cities, this paper compared the levels of index meanings. After the analysis, this paper drew the conclsions that concluded:①there are significant differences in different mineral cities;②energy mining cities have stronger power of sustainable development;③the meaning level in every index is not high.
In order to better analyze the development characteristics of mining cities, based on the sustainable development index framework, using hierarchical clustering analysis, the mining cities were divided into 6 types. They are“rich resources cities”,“emerging sustainable cities”,“resources demand cities”,“coal leading cities”,“transformation demand cities”,“owe sustainable cities”.
Based on the sustainable development index framework, using Onaway ANOVA, this paper discussed the evolution rules of the geographical position, stage of development, urban scale and mineral resources type. In this part, the paper drew the conclsions that concluded:①there are significant differences in the geographical position factor;②except of the environment sustainable development index in different urban scales, there is no significant differences in the other factors;③there are many commonness in mining cities, it’s helpful for formulating relatively universal strategies.
At last, based on the status analysis, hierarchical clustering analysis and Onaway ANOVA, this paper put forward“EVS Strategy Model”. The strategies include: science and technology leading strategy, circulation economic strategy, replace industrial strategy, resources reserve strategy and comparative advantage strategy.
本文从系统论出发,结合可持续发展理论、技术创新理论和循环经济理论,提出了经济、资源、环境、社会和智力5大系统,并分别就每个系统的指标作了分类设计。在充分考虑了不同方法的优劣之后,本文结合主成分构权方法、层次分析构权方法和模糊综合法将原矿业城市可持续发展力指标体系转换成分层的指数体系,为进一步进行战略分析打下基础。
为了深入反映不同类型矿业城市可持续发展力结构差异和现状,本文在矿业城市可持续发展力指数体系的基础上,分析了各种城市在不同指数均数水平上的差异,得到的基本结论包括:①不同矿种矿业城市在五大子系统上表现存在差异;②能源类矿城可持续发展能力较好;③整体水平有待提高。
为了更好地分析矿业城市发展中存在的特点,本文在矿业城市可持续发展力指数体系的基础上,采用系统聚类法对矿业城市进行了聚类分析,按照矿业城市表现出的内在相似性将矿业城市分为6类,它们分别是:“富资源型城市”、“新兴可持续型城市”、“资源需求型城市”、“煤炭主导型城市”、“转型需求型矿业城市”和“欠可持续发展型城市”。
另外,在矿业城市可持续发展力指数体系的基础上,采用单因素方差分析探讨了矿业城市可持续发展力的演变规律。得到的基本结论包括:①矿业城市可持续发展力在地理位置上有显著差异;②发展阶段、城市规模和矿产资源上除城市规模的环境可持续发展力指数上有显著差异外,其余因素均无显著差异;③矿业城市演变规律有一定共性,这便于制定具有相对普适性的战略体系。
最后,在现状分析、聚类分析和演变规律分析的基础上,本文提出了基于EVS理论的矿业城市可持续发展战略体系。这些战略内容包括:科技主导战略、循环经济战略、接替产业战略、资源储备战略和比较优势战略。
Mining cities have made great contribution to our country’s national economic development, but owing to historical reasons and the defects of the current policies, the mining cities have confronted many problems. Under such a background, Chinese scholars have done many studies on comprehensive issues in the mining industry, economy transition and the sustainable development of mining cities. Because the multivariate statistical methods have some defects, the result of the analysis have no physical meaning, and then it is difficult for cross-section analysis or sequential analysis. Therefore, the author made the sustainable development index framework of mining cities as the research core; this will help in-depth analysis of the sustainable development strategies of mining cities.
In order to get the scientific and rational index system of mining cities, this paper constructed index system that based on the system theory, sustainable development theory, technical innovation theory, the circular economy theory. The index system has 5 subsystems which included economy, resources, environment, social and intellectual, and then this paper made a classification design of indexes for each system. After full considering the quality of different methods, the author integrated principal component weight method, hierarchical analysis weight method and fuzzy comprehensive method for transforming the normal index system to the sustainable development index framework. The sustainable development index framework is the base of strategies analysis.
In order to deeply expound the differents of structural and status between all types of mining cities, this paper compared the levels of index meanings. After the analysis, this paper drew the conclsions that concluded:①there are significant differences in different mineral cities;②energy mining cities have stronger power of sustainable development;③the meaning level in every index is not high.
In order to better analyze the development characteristics of mining cities, based on the sustainable development index framework, using hierarchical clustering analysis, the mining cities were divided into 6 types. They are“rich resources cities”,“emerging sustainable cities”,“resources demand cities”,“coal leading cities”,“transformation demand cities”,“owe sustainable cities”.
Based on the sustainable development index framework, using Onaway ANOVA, this paper discussed the evolution rules of the geographical position, stage of development, urban scale and mineral resources type. In this part, the paper drew the conclsions that concluded:①there are significant differences in the geographical position factor;②except of the environment sustainable development index in different urban scales, there is no significant differences in the other factors;③there are many commonness in mining cities, it’s helpful for formulating relatively universal strategies.
At last, based on the status analysis, hierarchical clustering analysis and Onaway ANOVA, this paper put forward“EVS Strategy Model”. The strategies include: science and technology leading strategy, circulation economic strategy, replace industrial strategy, resources reserve strategy and comparative advantage strategy.
引文
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