我国石油工业可持续发展评价与预测研究
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摘要
石油被称为工业的“粮食”和“血液”,是一种关系国计民生的重要战略物资和特殊商品,具有广泛的用途和重要的资源价值。我国石油工业作为一种以石油资源为基础的经济生产行业,是保障国家经济发展的重要产业,对经济的发展做出了重要的贡献。如何促进油气资源的开发利用与社会经济及生态环境持久的协调发展成为当今我国经济社会发展面临的一大难题。本文将我国石油工业可持续发展系统视为一个由相互关联、相互依赖、相互作用的资源、经济、社会、生态环境等四个子系统按照一定的层次和结构构成的整体,在界定我国石油工业可持续发展的内涵和现状分析的基础上对该系统的可持续发展水平和系统协调水平进行评价和趋势预测,力求全面、深入地揭示一定时间与空间内的系统结构、功能、环境和综合效益状况和发展趋势,从而针对性地采取解决问题的办法,制定正确、切实、可行的可持续发展策略。
本文在对已有可持续发展理论和方法研究及总结的基础上,分析总结我国石油工业可持续发展的定义、内涵及特征,并对我国石油工业可持续发展能力进行界定。通过对我国国家可持续发展系统的系统分析,对我国石油工业可持续发展的理论基础和系统研究提供借鉴。
我国石油工业可持续发展的现状分析是进行可持续发展评价和趋势预测的基础和支撑。考虑到我国石油工业系统的开放性及结构层次的复杂性,本文从世界油气资源的生产和消费形势、我国油气资源的生产和消费形势、我国石油行业的基本情况、我国石油工业发展对生态环境的影响以及代油能源和石油战略储备的发展等现状进行全方位的分析和研究,为我国石油工业可持续发展的评价和趋势预测做好铺垫。
科学合理的指标体系是进行评价的基础。本文在以系统的观点对我国石油工业可持续发展系统进行科学、系统地全过程动态分析的基础上,确定了指标体系构建的指导思想、原则和指标体系框架,构建了包含资源、经济、社会和生态环境4个方面66个指标的我国石油工业可持续发展评价指标体系,为后文的分析、设计、规划、预测、决策等工作奠定了坚实的基础。
考虑到不同评价方法得出的评价结论不一致的情况,本文采用基于一致性的组合评价方法,并引入可持续发展水平、协调水平、可持续协调发展水平及总体可持续协调发展水平等概念,分别对我国石油工业系统及其资源子系统、经济子系统、社会子系统、生态环境子系统等四个方面来评价我国石油工业可持续发展水平,剖析我国石油工业可持续发展中存在的问题,为达到合理利用资源、改善生态环境、促进经济社会持续发展的效果提供了良好的基础。
我国石油工业系统是一个行业独特、包含因素众多、结构层次复杂的开放大系统,其可持续发展过程中的影响因素较多。本文采用灰色关联分析方法首先对影响我国石油工业各子系统的因素进行筛选,并对筛选出的指标进行灰色预测,考虑到系统的不确定性与复杂性,利用支持向量机(SVM)对2009-2015年我国石油工业可持续发展趋势进行预测。
最后,根据上文我国石油工业可持续发展水平及各子系统协调水平的评价及发展趋势预测结果,有针对性地提出我国石油工业可持续发展的对策建议。
Petroleum,named for the food or the blood of national industry,holds a wide range of uses and significant values acting as most important strategic material and special good related to people’s daily life.As a industry totally relied on petroleum resource , our national petroleum industry plays an important role in promting national economic development.The exploitation and the utilization of oil and gas resources and sustainable and harmony development of social economic and ecological environment becomes the difficlut issues China has to face now.This paper regards the sustainable development system of China's as a whole that consists of four interrelated, interdependent, interact subsystems of resources, economic, social, ecological environment that comes up in a specific level and structure. Base on defining the concept of sustainable development and the current situation analysis of China's petroleum industry,this paper makes an evaluation trend forecasting for the sustainable development and the coordination level of the system, and reveal the structure, function, environment system, benefits and development trends of the system in time and space comprehensively and deeply .Thus solve the problem targetedly, and formulate a correct, practical and feasible strategies for sustainable development.
This paper analyzes and summarizes the definition ,concept and features of the petroleum industry and make a definition the sustainability of China's petroleum industry relied on the condition of studies and conclusion of sustainable development theory and methods . Through systems analysis of our national sustainable development system,this paper also acts as the mirror of the theoretical foundation and system study for China's petroleum industry.
The analysis of the current situation of sustainable development of petroleum industry is the basis and support for evaluation of sustainable development and trend prediction.This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis and research of the current situation from the point of global and our national oil gas resources and consumption situation, the basic situation of our petroleum industry,the effects on ecologicalenvironment and the preliminary development of petroleum strategy,etc,and paves ways for evaluation and trend forecasting of sustainable development of China's petroleuml industry.
Scientific and reasonable index system is the foundation of evaluation.Based on the whole process of dynamic analysis on the sustainable development of national petroleum industry scientifcally and systematically,this paper establishes the guilding ideology , the principles and the framework of the index system,involving the 66 indicators of four aspects of resources, economic, social, ecological environment, which lays a solid foundation for the the analysis, design, planning, forecasting, and decision in the later paper.
Different methods of evaluation derived inconsistencies.The evaluation method this paper takes is portfolio evaluation based on consistency,and also brings in the concept of sustainable development level,coordination level, coordination level of sustainable development and the overall coordination level of sustainable development,ect.This paper providing a healthy foundation for rational utilization resourcesand ecological environment promotion by evaluating the sustainable development level of our oil industry from the four aspects of national petroleum industry system and its substem,economic subsystem,social subsystem and the environment subsytem,and analyzing problems existing in thef sustainable development of China's oil industry.
National petroleum industry system is a open and complex-structured system contains lots of factors.This paper uses the Grey relational analysis method to sieve the factors,and then make a grey analysis of the selected factor taking the uncertainties and the complexity of the system into account,and makes a forecast on the trend of China’s petroleum industry sustainable development during 2009-2015 using SVM.
Finally,acording to the predicted results above of the evaluation and trend forecasting of the level of sustainable development of China's petroleum industry and the coordination level of the subsystem,this paper proposes targeted strategies and advices for sustainable development of China’s petroleum industry.
本文在对已有可持续发展理论和方法研究及总结的基础上,分析总结我国石油工业可持续发展的定义、内涵及特征,并对我国石油工业可持续发展能力进行界定。通过对我国国家可持续发展系统的系统分析,对我国石油工业可持续发展的理论基础和系统研究提供借鉴。
我国石油工业可持续发展的现状分析是进行可持续发展评价和趋势预测的基础和支撑。考虑到我国石油工业系统的开放性及结构层次的复杂性,本文从世界油气资源的生产和消费形势、我国油气资源的生产和消费形势、我国石油行业的基本情况、我国石油工业发展对生态环境的影响以及代油能源和石油战略储备的发展等现状进行全方位的分析和研究,为我国石油工业可持续发展的评价和趋势预测做好铺垫。
科学合理的指标体系是进行评价的基础。本文在以系统的观点对我国石油工业可持续发展系统进行科学、系统地全过程动态分析的基础上,确定了指标体系构建的指导思想、原则和指标体系框架,构建了包含资源、经济、社会和生态环境4个方面66个指标的我国石油工业可持续发展评价指标体系,为后文的分析、设计、规划、预测、决策等工作奠定了坚实的基础。
考虑到不同评价方法得出的评价结论不一致的情况,本文采用基于一致性的组合评价方法,并引入可持续发展水平、协调水平、可持续协调发展水平及总体可持续协调发展水平等概念,分别对我国石油工业系统及其资源子系统、经济子系统、社会子系统、生态环境子系统等四个方面来评价我国石油工业可持续发展水平,剖析我国石油工业可持续发展中存在的问题,为达到合理利用资源、改善生态环境、促进经济社会持续发展的效果提供了良好的基础。
我国石油工业系统是一个行业独特、包含因素众多、结构层次复杂的开放大系统,其可持续发展过程中的影响因素较多。本文采用灰色关联分析方法首先对影响我国石油工业各子系统的因素进行筛选,并对筛选出的指标进行灰色预测,考虑到系统的不确定性与复杂性,利用支持向量机(SVM)对2009-2015年我国石油工业可持续发展趋势进行预测。
最后,根据上文我国石油工业可持续发展水平及各子系统协调水平的评价及发展趋势预测结果,有针对性地提出我国石油工业可持续发展的对策建议。
Petroleum,named for the food or the blood of national industry,holds a wide range of uses and significant values acting as most important strategic material and special good related to people’s daily life.As a industry totally relied on petroleum resource , our national petroleum industry plays an important role in promting national economic development.The exploitation and the utilization of oil and gas resources and sustainable and harmony development of social economic and ecological environment becomes the difficlut issues China has to face now.This paper regards the sustainable development system of China's as a whole that consists of four interrelated, interdependent, interact subsystems of resources, economic, social, ecological environment that comes up in a specific level and structure. Base on defining the concept of sustainable development and the current situation analysis of China's petroleum industry,this paper makes an evaluation trend forecasting for the sustainable development and the coordination level of the system, and reveal the structure, function, environment system, benefits and development trends of the system in time and space comprehensively and deeply .Thus solve the problem targetedly, and formulate a correct, practical and feasible strategies for sustainable development.
This paper analyzes and summarizes the definition ,concept and features of the petroleum industry and make a definition the sustainability of China's petroleum industry relied on the condition of studies and conclusion of sustainable development theory and methods . Through systems analysis of our national sustainable development system,this paper also acts as the mirror of the theoretical foundation and system study for China's petroleum industry.
The analysis of the current situation of sustainable development of petroleum industry is the basis and support for evaluation of sustainable development and trend prediction.This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis and research of the current situation from the point of global and our national oil gas resources and consumption situation, the basic situation of our petroleum industry,the effects on ecologicalenvironment and the preliminary development of petroleum strategy,etc,and paves ways for evaluation and trend forecasting of sustainable development of China's petroleuml industry.
Scientific and reasonable index system is the foundation of evaluation.Based on the whole process of dynamic analysis on the sustainable development of national petroleum industry scientifcally and systematically,this paper establishes the guilding ideology , the principles and the framework of the index system,involving the 66 indicators of four aspects of resources, economic, social, ecological environment, which lays a solid foundation for the the analysis, design, planning, forecasting, and decision in the later paper.
Different methods of evaluation derived inconsistencies.The evaluation method this paper takes is portfolio evaluation based on consistency,and also brings in the concept of sustainable development level,coordination level, coordination level of sustainable development and the overall coordination level of sustainable development,ect.This paper providing a healthy foundation for rational utilization resourcesand ecological environment promotion by evaluating the sustainable development level of our oil industry from the four aspects of national petroleum industry system and its substem,economic subsystem,social subsystem and the environment subsytem,and analyzing problems existing in thef sustainable development of China's oil industry.
National petroleum industry system is a open and complex-structured system contains lots of factors.This paper uses the Grey relational analysis method to sieve the factors,and then make a grey analysis of the selected factor taking the uncertainties and the complexity of the system into account,and makes a forecast on the trend of China’s petroleum industry sustainable development during 2009-2015 using SVM.
Finally,acording to the predicted results above of the evaluation and trend forecasting of the level of sustainable development of China's petroleum industry and the coordination level of the subsystem,this paper proposes targeted strategies and advices for sustainable development of China’s petroleum industry.
引文
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