滨海旅游资源经济价值评价模型研究
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摘要
资源与环境经济学把商品分为两大类：一类是市场产品,另一类是非市场产品。市场产品的价值可以通过由供给和需求决定的价格反映,而对非市场产品而言,由于缺乏正常的市场交易环境,故其价值难以从市场的价格中得到反映。事实上,在很多情况下,这类产品的市场价格可能是不存在的；然而,产品价格的不存在,不等于这类产品没有价值或价值很低。人们对美丽的自然环境,如水、清新空气、奇特旅游景观的需求,说明这类非市场产品具有重要的经济价值。这种环境资源价值可以通过一个假想价格来反应,它就是消费者剩余。本文通过消费者剩余测算非市场资源的经济价值,包括其使用价值和非使用价值,并以大连滨海旅游环境资源为例估计非市场旅游资源和各种旅游活动的经济价值。具体过程分为两步：首先建立计量经济模型、评估模型参数并做统计性检验,然后根据所得参数测算旅游资源和旅游活动的经济价值。
旅行成本法和条件评价法是研究非市场社会公共品环境资源货币化经济价值的两个非常重要方法,也是生态补偿货币化研究的重要支撑工具。本文在分别比较、分析、总结旅行成本法和条件评价法原理和实证模型基础上,主要研究如何通过计量经济模型作参数评估并计算消费者剩余,揭示模型的评估能力以及模型对方法的相适应性。旅行成本法的研究模型总结为连续函数模型、BOX-COX模型、计数模型和其它概率分布模型如正态分布,并提及嵌套Logit模型；条件评价法研究模型包括连续函数模型、Logit&Probit模型、双边界二分选择逻辑概率分布模型、和其它概率分布模型如Weibull分布。全文采用归纳和演绎、理论和实证相结合的研究模式。综合分析现有文献中的计量经济模型与研究方法,针对现有文献中仅仅使用公式而不清晰来龙去脉过程的消费者剩余积分计算给出证明过程。通过总结的理论与模型去分析旅行成本法和条件评价法的适应性模型,这是应用、比较并升华的过程,之后给出大连滨海旅游资源经济价值评价的应用。
本研究有如下四个特别的着眼点：
(1)、GB／T18972-2003对滨海自然旅游资源的分类内容非常有限,因为很难界定；通过社会公共品环境资源的稀缺性界定滨海自然旅游资源更有意义。具体操作时,对于潜在旅游者而言这种稀缺性表现为旅游活动的区别、特质与吸引力,旅游资源具有使用价值和非使用价值；文中用对旅游资源的意愿支付(WTP)表现旅游活动的经济价值,无论何时使用旅游资源它都与时俱进地存在,所以可以从不断挖掘和规划旅游活动的资源承载物视角定义滨海自然旅游资源。
.(2)、社会科学研究中可以通过李克特五点或七点量表反应被访问者对市场产品或服务行为偏好的真实信息,而条件评价法实证问题较难反应被访问者的真实意愿,它作为应用领域很广的实证方法,为获得被访问者真实意愿偏好的问卷问题答复必须采用特别的启发技术完成。对于国内被访问者,这类理论和认知有差距的方法是一种新的实证调查理念,难以适应西方重复报价等复杂作答过程,往往调查之中就懈怠放弃。此外,学者偏爱条件评价法中的二分选择实证问题启发技术,不足之处是样本量较大以及起始点误差的存在。为减少起始点误差以及重复报价等复杂问题的出现,研究中对问卷的启发技术进行了修正,采用预试、初试和正式调查三阶段形式,在正式调查中提出采用Top-down方法,既可以获得被访问者真实意愿偏好信息,又避免了调查双边界二分选择模型研究的重复报价复杂性问题。
(3)、研究中发现采用贝叶斯方法的MCMC抽样回归非参数模型可以解决旅行成本法和条件评价法的参数评估问题,它有很多优点并开始应用于经济管理研究中。文中首次尝试在CVM中应用该方法评价滨海旅游资源的经济价值,并与Probit参数模型进行了比较。
(4)、对计量经济模型的分析包括回归模型的评估和结果的运用两个层面,很多文献对模型的MLE回归评估认识不足,比如z检验和t检验的区别。本文实现部分模型的Matlab计算机语言分析程序,既为模型分析提供有力工具,也对模型有了进一步了解。因为现有软件中没有直接求解双边界二分法极大斯然估计模型,所以主要实现了计算该模型的程序代码。
Resource and environmental economics classifies resources/goods into two categories: one is market resource/good and the other is non-market resource/good. The value of market resource/good could be reflected via the price determined by market supply and demand, whereas, due to incomplete market environment for the non-market good and resource, the prices of those types of good and resource cannot be used to reflect their true economic value. In fact, under many circumstances, the prices of non-market resources may not exist. Nevertheless, the non-existence of price does not mean zero economic value to be accrued to those non-market resources, neither are their values very low. Observation that people exhibit a high demand for various beautiful natural environments, such as clean water and air, extraordinary sight of tourism sites suggests tremendous economic value that should be accrued to those non-market resource/good. One instrument which is commonly used to measure economic value for non-market resource is the consumer surplus hypothetically acted as a price. Thus, in this thesis the consumer surplus is utilized to measure economic value of non-market resources, including their use value and nonuse value as well. Taking coastal tourism in Dalian as an empirical example to assess the economic value for a variety of coastal environmental tourism resources and activities involves two major steps:the first step is to establish econometric models and estimate model parameters and following up by doing related statistical tests for the parameters. The second step is to use the estimated econometric model and coefficients to calculate economic value of coastal tourism resources and various recreational activities.
Travel Cost Method (TCM) and Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) are two primarily important approaches used in monetarily valuing non-market social public environmental resources, and also vitally supporting method of estimating monetary compensation for ecosystem. This research, respectively compares, analyzes and summarizes TCM and CVM with respect to both theoretical basis and empirical models. The study is mainly focused on how to estimate models'parameters and calculate consumer surplus of tourism resources and recreational activities using the estimated econometric models and relevant statistical estimation techniques. Meanwhile, each model's performance is evaluated, and then the capability and adaptability between models are compared. TCM is categorized as continuous function, BOX-COX, count and other probability distribution models such as normal distribution, and nested-Logit etc.; And CVM consists of continuous function, Logit, Probit, logistic double-bounded dichotomous choice models and other probability distribution models such as Weibull distribution. Induce together with deduce, and empiricism blended theorization, are basic research mode. Synthetic analysis of those models and approaches is used to derive the proved procedure of formulas against obscurely arranged formulas in reviewed literatures. And summarized content can be used for depth analysis of TCM or CVM models. Followed up the comparison and sublimation, an application of valuing coastal tourism resources in Dalian is carried out.
In this study, there are four special focuses of attention.
(1)There are few subclasses for coastal natural tourism resources in Chinese GB/T18972-2003 due to hardly defining. The study points out that it is meaningful to define coastal natural tourism resources through social public environmental resource scarcity. Practically, for potential tourists, the scarcity of tourism resources can distinguish from the diversity, particularity and attraction of tourism activities. Tourism resource involves use value and nonuse value, whereas economic value of tourism activity advanced with the times can be reflected through Willingness to Pay (WTP) for tourism environmental resources no matter when tourism resource is visited, thus to continually find and program carriers of tourism activities is a new prospect in defining coastal tourism resources.
(2)In social science research,5-point or 7-point Likert scale is used to express the correspondent's behavior preference for market goods or services. While CVM, a widely used empirical method, is difficult to reveal the true preference information for the respondents, thus, empirical questionnaire with elicited technique must be adopted to obtain the correspondent's true preference. The method, such as iterating biding with complex response process in western countries, is a new empirical concept with theoretical and cognitive gap for native respondents, which causes difficulties in tourists'corporations during a survey. As for the preferred dichotomous choice type of survey questionnaire, it tends to create problems of starting bias and sampling size restriction. For decreasing starting bias and avoiding complicated empirical questions, a new modified three step procedure is proposed in this study, which is consisted of pretest, pilot test and formal survey design which uses a Top-down method to inquire the true preference of respondents. Doing so is also helpful in reduction of iterating biding trouble in the process of survey for double-bounded dichotomous choice model.
(3)A finding is that non-parameter model of Bayesian MCMC regression can easily solve parameters of TCM's or CVM's models. These advantages and applications in economics and management are just started. In the study, MCMC sampling regression is first use to value coastal tourism resource, and a MCMC CVM model comparison with Probit is analyzed.
(4)Analysis of econometric models includes two aspects including the model estimation and application. The grasp of MLE regression is inadequate in many literatures, such as the discrimination between z-test and t-test. In the study, program codes of some models are practiced using Matlab computer language, and the model analysis tools are armed with those programs, furthermore the recognition of model test is carried out carefully. Currently, due to none of software that can be directly applied to compute MLE of double-bounded dichotomous choice model, its program code has to be used in solving out the model parameters.
旅行成本法和条件评价法是研究非市场社会公共品环境资源货币化经济价值的两个非常重要方法,也是生态补偿货币化研究的重要支撑工具。本文在分别比较、分析、总结旅行成本法和条件评价法原理和实证模型基础上,主要研究如何通过计量经济模型作参数评估并计算消费者剩余,揭示模型的评估能力以及模型对方法的相适应性。旅行成本法的研究模型总结为连续函数模型、BOX-COX模型、计数模型和其它概率分布模型如正态分布,并提及嵌套Logit模型；条件评价法研究模型包括连续函数模型、Logit&Probit模型、双边界二分选择逻辑概率分布模型、和其它概率分布模型如Weibull分布。全文采用归纳和演绎、理论和实证相结合的研究模式。综合分析现有文献中的计量经济模型与研究方法,针对现有文献中仅仅使用公式而不清晰来龙去脉过程的消费者剩余积分计算给出证明过程。通过总结的理论与模型去分析旅行成本法和条件评价法的适应性模型,这是应用、比较并升华的过程,之后给出大连滨海旅游资源经济价值评价的应用。
本研究有如下四个特别的着眼点：
(1)、GB／T18972-2003对滨海自然旅游资源的分类内容非常有限,因为很难界定；通过社会公共品环境资源的稀缺性界定滨海自然旅游资源更有意义。具体操作时,对于潜在旅游者而言这种稀缺性表现为旅游活动的区别、特质与吸引力,旅游资源具有使用价值和非使用价值；文中用对旅游资源的意愿支付(WTP)表现旅游活动的经济价值,无论何时使用旅游资源它都与时俱进地存在,所以可以从不断挖掘和规划旅游活动的资源承载物视角定义滨海自然旅游资源。
.(2)、社会科学研究中可以通过李克特五点或七点量表反应被访问者对市场产品或服务行为偏好的真实信息,而条件评价法实证问题较难反应被访问者的真实意愿,它作为应用领域很广的实证方法,为获得被访问者真实意愿偏好的问卷问题答复必须采用特别的启发技术完成。对于国内被访问者,这类理论和认知有差距的方法是一种新的实证调查理念,难以适应西方重复报价等复杂作答过程,往往调查之中就懈怠放弃。此外,学者偏爱条件评价法中的二分选择实证问题启发技术,不足之处是样本量较大以及起始点误差的存在。为减少起始点误差以及重复报价等复杂问题的出现,研究中对问卷的启发技术进行了修正,采用预试、初试和正式调查三阶段形式,在正式调查中提出采用Top-down方法,既可以获得被访问者真实意愿偏好信息,又避免了调查双边界二分选择模型研究的重复报价复杂性问题。
(3)、研究中发现采用贝叶斯方法的MCMC抽样回归非参数模型可以解决旅行成本法和条件评价法的参数评估问题,它有很多优点并开始应用于经济管理研究中。文中首次尝试在CVM中应用该方法评价滨海旅游资源的经济价值,并与Probit参数模型进行了比较。
(4)、对计量经济模型的分析包括回归模型的评估和结果的运用两个层面,很多文献对模型的MLE回归评估认识不足,比如z检验和t检验的区别。本文实现部分模型的Matlab计算机语言分析程序,既为模型分析提供有力工具,也对模型有了进一步了解。因为现有软件中没有直接求解双边界二分法极大斯然估计模型,所以主要实现了计算该模型的程序代码。
Resource and environmental economics classifies resources/goods into two categories: one is market resource/good and the other is non-market resource/good. The value of market resource/good could be reflected via the price determined by market supply and demand, whereas, due to incomplete market environment for the non-market good and resource, the prices of those types of good and resource cannot be used to reflect their true economic value. In fact, under many circumstances, the prices of non-market resources may not exist. Nevertheless, the non-existence of price does not mean zero economic value to be accrued to those non-market resources, neither are their values very low. Observation that people exhibit a high demand for various beautiful natural environments, such as clean water and air, extraordinary sight of tourism sites suggests tremendous economic value that should be accrued to those non-market resource/good. One instrument which is commonly used to measure economic value for non-market resource is the consumer surplus hypothetically acted as a price. Thus, in this thesis the consumer surplus is utilized to measure economic value of non-market resources, including their use value and nonuse value as well. Taking coastal tourism in Dalian as an empirical example to assess the economic value for a variety of coastal environmental tourism resources and activities involves two major steps:the first step is to establish econometric models and estimate model parameters and following up by doing related statistical tests for the parameters. The second step is to use the estimated econometric model and coefficients to calculate economic value of coastal tourism resources and various recreational activities.
Travel Cost Method (TCM) and Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) are two primarily important approaches used in monetarily valuing non-market social public environmental resources, and also vitally supporting method of estimating monetary compensation for ecosystem. This research, respectively compares, analyzes and summarizes TCM and CVM with respect to both theoretical basis and empirical models. The study is mainly focused on how to estimate models'parameters and calculate consumer surplus of tourism resources and recreational activities using the estimated econometric models and relevant statistical estimation techniques. Meanwhile, each model's performance is evaluated, and then the capability and adaptability between models are compared. TCM is categorized as continuous function, BOX-COX, count and other probability distribution models such as normal distribution, and nested-Logit etc.; And CVM consists of continuous function, Logit, Probit, logistic double-bounded dichotomous choice models and other probability distribution models such as Weibull distribution. Induce together with deduce, and empiricism blended theorization, are basic research mode. Synthetic analysis of those models and approaches is used to derive the proved procedure of formulas against obscurely arranged formulas in reviewed literatures. And summarized content can be used for depth analysis of TCM or CVM models. Followed up the comparison and sublimation, an application of valuing coastal tourism resources in Dalian is carried out.
In this study, there are four special focuses of attention.
(1)There are few subclasses for coastal natural tourism resources in Chinese GB/T18972-2003 due to hardly defining. The study points out that it is meaningful to define coastal natural tourism resources through social public environmental resource scarcity. Practically, for potential tourists, the scarcity of tourism resources can distinguish from the diversity, particularity and attraction of tourism activities. Tourism resource involves use value and nonuse value, whereas economic value of tourism activity advanced with the times can be reflected through Willingness to Pay (WTP) for tourism environmental resources no matter when tourism resource is visited, thus to continually find and program carriers of tourism activities is a new prospect in defining coastal tourism resources.
(2)In social science research,5-point or 7-point Likert scale is used to express the correspondent's behavior preference for market goods or services. While CVM, a widely used empirical method, is difficult to reveal the true preference information for the respondents, thus, empirical questionnaire with elicited technique must be adopted to obtain the correspondent's true preference. The method, such as iterating biding with complex response process in western countries, is a new empirical concept with theoretical and cognitive gap for native respondents, which causes difficulties in tourists'corporations during a survey. As for the preferred dichotomous choice type of survey questionnaire, it tends to create problems of starting bias and sampling size restriction. For decreasing starting bias and avoiding complicated empirical questions, a new modified three step procedure is proposed in this study, which is consisted of pretest, pilot test and formal survey design which uses a Top-down method to inquire the true preference of respondents. Doing so is also helpful in reduction of iterating biding trouble in the process of survey for double-bounded dichotomous choice model.
(3)A finding is that non-parameter model of Bayesian MCMC regression can easily solve parameters of TCM's or CVM's models. These advantages and applications in economics and management are just started. In the study, MCMC sampling regression is first use to value coastal tourism resource, and a MCMC CVM model comparison with Probit is analyzed.
(4)Analysis of econometric models includes two aspects including the model estimation and application. The grasp of MLE regression is inadequate in many literatures, such as the discrimination between z-test and t-test. In the study, program codes of some models are practiced using Matlab computer language, and the model analysis tools are armed with those programs, furthermore the recognition of model test is carried out carefully. Currently, due to none of software that can be directly applied to compute MLE of double-bounded dichotomous choice model, its program code has to be used in solving out the model parameters.
引文
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