我国区域碳排放分配研究
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摘要
随着全球范围内气候和环境形势的日益严峻，作为温室气体主要构成的二氧化碳排放问题备受瞩目。随着我国区域性碳交易市场的逐步推进，碳排放分配方法选择以及初始额度分配，成为学术界亟须解决的重要课题。
经文献整理，发现目前的碳排放相关分配研究以简单的线性分配为主要形式，缺乏对碳排放产生的宏观机理的系统性考虑。本文以技术效率测定和生产经济学的相关理论作为研究的切入点，在宏观的生产函数框架下研究碳排放的相关分配问题，其研究结论及创新点主要有以下几个方面：
（1）将碳排放作为宏观生产过程的非期望产出变量，使用环境生产技术，结合ZSG-DEA方法提出基于环境生产技术的零和博弈（Zero Sum Gains，简称ZSG）效率分配模型，利用DEA方法进行规划求解，以整体技术效率最大化为目标，完成我国碳排放的效率分配建模；在此基础上，以2010年为例，对我国省级碳排放效率分配进行研究；
（2）通过对我国“十二五”时期数据的合理预测，完成对我国“十二五”时期省级碳强度约束指标的效率分配,对中央政府的行政分配与ZSG效率分配的不同思路进行比较和说明，结果发现部分省区存在较大差异；根据各省区在“十二五”期末应该达到的碳强度约束和GDP的预测数值，研究结果还将全部30个省区划分为4类地区并进行分析，每类地区的“低碳”路径不尽相同；
（3）结合2006-2010年的历史数据，完成我国“十一五”时期的省级能源强度约束指标的效率分配，对中央政府的“下降20%”行政分配指标与ZSG效率分配的不同思路进行比较和说明，结果发现部分省区存在较大差异；根据各省区在“十二五”期末应该达到的能源强度约束和GDP的预测数值，对各省区的“十二五”能源强度约束指标和“十一五”实际下降幅度进行综合分析；研究结果还将全部30个省区划分为4类地区，每类地区的“节能”路径不尽相同；
（4）结合潜力权重因子，构建出兼顾节能潜力、减排潜力和GDP增长潜力的碳排放额度分配机制，通过多阶段DEA规划求解完成分配，从而实现多重兼顾的分配导向结论的整体帕累托最优；针对权重因子对不同导向分配结果的影响，提出测算各省区的权重因子临界值的方法，该临界值可以用来明确不同政策导向之间的选择弹性。实证研究表明，对我国的东、中和西部地区以及30个省区而言，不同权重因子的选择和组合会影响到分配额度的数量变化；东部和中部地区在侧重于节能潜力和减排潜力的挖掘、西部地区在侧重于GDP增长潜力导向下，各地区获取的碳排放额度相对较多，这也符合目前我国产业结构调整、沿海工业内迁的经济发展现状。
(5)借鉴欧盟分配原则，结合公平权重因子和溯往权重因子，构建出兼顾效率、公平、产值和溯往原则的碳排放额度分配机制，通过多阶段DEA规划求解完成分配，从而实现多重兼顾的分配导向结论的整体帕累托最优；针对权重因子对不同导向分配结果的影响，提出测算各省区的权重因子临界值的方法，该临界值可以用来明确不同政策导向之间的选择弹性。实证研究表明，对我国的东、中和西部地区以及30个省区而言，不同权重因子的选择和组合会影响到分配额度的数量变化；基于溯往原则和产值原则的分配结果对东部地区较为有利，基于效率与公平原则的分配结果对中西部地区较为有利。
Along with the global climate and environment situation becoming more serious, as main elementof greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide emissions are concerned. With China regional carbon dioxideemissions trading market gradually constrution, the choice of carbon dioxide emissions allocationmethod and initial quotas confirmation, must be solved as important topic of research.
Through literature research, we found that current research are related to the carbon dioxideemissions in a simple linear pattern, show lack of macroscopic production in systemic mechanism.Based on the technical efficiency measurement and production economics related theory as startingpoint of research, we perform carbon dioxide emissions allocation in the macro production functionframework, the main research conclusions and innovation point as the following several aspects:
(1) taking carbon dioxide emissions as a macro undesirable output variables, using the environmentproduction technology, combined with ZSG-DEA method, we propose Zero Sum Gains （short namefor ZSG） environmental production technology allocation model, using DEA method formathematical programming, in order to maximize the overall technical efficiency as the goal,complete serial China provincial carbon dioxide emissions efficiency allocation model construction;after that, taking2010as an example, finish carbon dioxide emissions efficiency allocation;
(2) through reasonable forecasting data during the China "twelfth five-year" period, we completethe provincial carbon intensity constraint of ZSG efficiency allocation for "twelfth five-year" period,compare different mechanism between central government allocation and ZSG efficiency allocation,find that some provinces show great difference in differnt mechanism; According to each province’sfinal carbon intensity constraints and predicted values of GDP in the end of "twelfth five-year", all30provinces regions are divided into4types regions, each type of area has different "low carbon" path;
(3) based on historical data from2006to2010, we complete the "eleventh five-year " periodprovincial energy intensity constraint of ZSG efficiency allocation, compared with "20%" for thecentral government administrative allocation of energy saving aim and ZSG efficiency allocation, findthat some provinces show great difference in differnt mechanism; According to each province’s finalenergy intensity constraints and actual values of GDP in the end of "eleventh five-year", all30provinces regions are divided into4types regions, each area of the path of " energy saving " hasdifferent "low carbon" path;
(4) combined with potential weight factor, we complete optimum allocation based on potential of energy saving and potential of emission reduction and potential of GDP growth, through multi-stageDEA programming to complete allocation mechanism, so as to realize multiple aims allocation for“overall pareto optimality”; In view of potential weight factor influence on the different allocationresult, measure potential weight factor critical value, the critical value can be used to reflect choiceelastic between different policy. Empirical analysis shows that the different potential weight factorand critical value will cause greater influence of allocation results for east, middle and west regionsand30provinces; eastern and middle region should focus on the potential energy saving and emissionreduction potential results, western region should focus on GDP growth potential results, so eachregion would obtain more carbon dioxide emissions quotas, it conforms to the present status ofindustrial structure adjustment and coastal region industrial migration.
(5) based on EU's carbon emissions allocation mechanism balances Equity Principle,Grandfathering Rule and Value Principle, combined with potential weight factor, we completeoptimum allocation based on Equity Principle, Grandfathering Rule and Value Principle, throughmulti-stage DEA programming to complete allocation mechanism, so as to realize multiple aimsallocation for “overall pareto optimality”; In view of Equity weight factor and Grandfathering Ruleweight factor influence on the different allocation result, measure weight factor critical value, thecritical value can be used to reflect choice elastic between different policy. Empirical analysis showsthat the different weight factor and critical value will cause greater influence of allocation results foreast, middle and west regions and30provinces; eastern region should focus on Efficiency and Equityresults, middle and western region should focus on Grandfathering Rule and Value Principle, so eachregion would obtain more carbon dioxide emissions quotas.
经文献整理，发现目前的碳排放相关分配研究以简单的线性分配为主要形式，缺乏对碳排放产生的宏观机理的系统性考虑。本文以技术效率测定和生产经济学的相关理论作为研究的切入点，在宏观的生产函数框架下研究碳排放的相关分配问题，其研究结论及创新点主要有以下几个方面：
（1）将碳排放作为宏观生产过程的非期望产出变量，使用环境生产技术，结合ZSG-DEA方法提出基于环境生产技术的零和博弈（Zero Sum Gains，简称ZSG）效率分配模型，利用DEA方法进行规划求解，以整体技术效率最大化为目标，完成我国碳排放的效率分配建模；在此基础上，以2010年为例，对我国省级碳排放效率分配进行研究；
（2）通过对我国“十二五”时期数据的合理预测，完成对我国“十二五”时期省级碳强度约束指标的效率分配,对中央政府的行政分配与ZSG效率分配的不同思路进行比较和说明，结果发现部分省区存在较大差异；根据各省区在“十二五”期末应该达到的碳强度约束和GDP的预测数值，研究结果还将全部30个省区划分为4类地区并进行分析，每类地区的“低碳”路径不尽相同；
（3）结合2006-2010年的历史数据，完成我国“十一五”时期的省级能源强度约束指标的效率分配，对中央政府的“下降20%”行政分配指标与ZSG效率分配的不同思路进行比较和说明，结果发现部分省区存在较大差异；根据各省区在“十二五”期末应该达到的能源强度约束和GDP的预测数值，对各省区的“十二五”能源强度约束指标和“十一五”实际下降幅度进行综合分析；研究结果还将全部30个省区划分为4类地区，每类地区的“节能”路径不尽相同；
（4）结合潜力权重因子，构建出兼顾节能潜力、减排潜力和GDP增长潜力的碳排放额度分配机制，通过多阶段DEA规划求解完成分配，从而实现多重兼顾的分配导向结论的整体帕累托最优；针对权重因子对不同导向分配结果的影响，提出测算各省区的权重因子临界值的方法，该临界值可以用来明确不同政策导向之间的选择弹性。实证研究表明，对我国的东、中和西部地区以及30个省区而言，不同权重因子的选择和组合会影响到分配额度的数量变化；东部和中部地区在侧重于节能潜力和减排潜力的挖掘、西部地区在侧重于GDP增长潜力导向下，各地区获取的碳排放额度相对较多，这也符合目前我国产业结构调整、沿海工业内迁的经济发展现状。
(5)借鉴欧盟分配原则，结合公平权重因子和溯往权重因子，构建出兼顾效率、公平、产值和溯往原则的碳排放额度分配机制，通过多阶段DEA规划求解完成分配，从而实现多重兼顾的分配导向结论的整体帕累托最优；针对权重因子对不同导向分配结果的影响，提出测算各省区的权重因子临界值的方法，该临界值可以用来明确不同政策导向之间的选择弹性。实证研究表明，对我国的东、中和西部地区以及30个省区而言，不同权重因子的选择和组合会影响到分配额度的数量变化；基于溯往原则和产值原则的分配结果对东部地区较为有利，基于效率与公平原则的分配结果对中西部地区较为有利。
Along with the global climate and environment situation becoming more serious, as main elementof greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide emissions are concerned. With China regional carbon dioxideemissions trading market gradually constrution, the choice of carbon dioxide emissions allocationmethod and initial quotas confirmation, must be solved as important topic of research.
Through literature research, we found that current research are related to the carbon dioxideemissions in a simple linear pattern, show lack of macroscopic production in systemic mechanism.Based on the technical efficiency measurement and production economics related theory as startingpoint of research, we perform carbon dioxide emissions allocation in the macro production functionframework, the main research conclusions and innovation point as the following several aspects:
(1) taking carbon dioxide emissions as a macro undesirable output variables, using the environmentproduction technology, combined with ZSG-DEA method, we propose Zero Sum Gains （short namefor ZSG） environmental production technology allocation model, using DEA method formathematical programming, in order to maximize the overall technical efficiency as the goal,complete serial China provincial carbon dioxide emissions efficiency allocation model construction;after that, taking2010as an example, finish carbon dioxide emissions efficiency allocation;
(2) through reasonable forecasting data during the China "twelfth five-year" period, we completethe provincial carbon intensity constraint of ZSG efficiency allocation for "twelfth five-year" period,compare different mechanism between central government allocation and ZSG efficiency allocation,find that some provinces show great difference in differnt mechanism; According to each province’sfinal carbon intensity constraints and predicted values of GDP in the end of "twelfth five-year", all30provinces regions are divided into4types regions, each type of area has different "low carbon" path;
(3) based on historical data from2006to2010, we complete the "eleventh five-year " periodprovincial energy intensity constraint of ZSG efficiency allocation, compared with "20%" for thecentral government administrative allocation of energy saving aim and ZSG efficiency allocation, findthat some provinces show great difference in differnt mechanism; According to each province’s finalenergy intensity constraints and actual values of GDP in the end of "eleventh five-year", all30provinces regions are divided into4types regions, each area of the path of " energy saving " hasdifferent "low carbon" path;
(4) combined with potential weight factor, we complete optimum allocation based on potential of energy saving and potential of emission reduction and potential of GDP growth, through multi-stageDEA programming to complete allocation mechanism, so as to realize multiple aims allocation for“overall pareto optimality”; In view of potential weight factor influence on the different allocationresult, measure potential weight factor critical value, the critical value can be used to reflect choiceelastic between different policy. Empirical analysis shows that the different potential weight factorand critical value will cause greater influence of allocation results for east, middle and west regionsand30provinces; eastern and middle region should focus on the potential energy saving and emissionreduction potential results, western region should focus on GDP growth potential results, so eachregion would obtain more carbon dioxide emissions quotas, it conforms to the present status ofindustrial structure adjustment and coastal region industrial migration.
(5) based on EU's carbon emissions allocation mechanism balances Equity Principle,Grandfathering Rule and Value Principle, combined with potential weight factor, we completeoptimum allocation based on Equity Principle, Grandfathering Rule and Value Principle, throughmulti-stage DEA programming to complete allocation mechanism, so as to realize multiple aimsallocation for “overall pareto optimality”; In view of Equity weight factor and Grandfathering Ruleweight factor influence on the different allocation result, measure weight factor critical value, thecritical value can be used to reflect choice elastic between different policy. Empirical analysis showsthat the different weight factor and critical value will cause greater influence of allocation results foreast, middle and west regions and30provinces; eastern region should focus on Efficiency and Equityresults, middle and western region should focus on Grandfathering Rule and Value Principle, so eachregion would obtain more carbon dioxide emissions quotas.
引文
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