中国木质林产品碳储量
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摘要
森林采伐和木质林产品使用改变了森林和大气之间的自然碳平衡,木质林产品碳核算包含在国际气候变化谈判土地利用、土地利用变化和林业(LULUCF)议题中,且LULUCF碳流动是国家温室气体清单的一个重要组成部分。为提高我国国家温室气体清单的编制质量并认识我国木质林产品的碳储量变化规律,通过查阅公开发表的文献和外业调查的方法以及对采集的样品进行测定相结合的方法获取木质林产品碳储量估算需要的诸如基本密度、含碳率和使用寿命以及不同行业的木材消耗强度等基本计量参数。论文对谈判中木质林产品的范围进行了明确界定,突出了公平性原则;首次提出碳质量概念并用其评价产品储碳效果。
碳储量基于不同分类途径进行估算。论文首先基于FAO定义分类途径,以IPCC方法学框架为指导,应用储量数据法和逐步递归方程估算我国木质林产品的碳储量以及进出口木质林产品的碳储量;采用蒙特卡洛模拟分析碳储量结果的不确定性。然后在产品用途分类途径基础上,采用灰色系统模型预测我国建筑业和煤炭业的未来发展趋势,通过木材消耗强度法推算我国不同行业木材消耗情况,采用国家专门方法来分析我国不同部门消耗木材的碳储量变化规律。从数据获取难易的角度,按产品用途分类途径要优于FAO定义分类途径。从目前碳储量估算结果来看,我国木质林产品是一个增长的碳库;也是木质林产品净进口国,因此应用储量变化法对我国较为有利。主要结论如下:
(1)我国木质林产品是一个碳库,并且这个碳库碳储量增长越来越快。工业和建筑行业年消耗木材的碳储量不断增长。我国是木质林产品净进口国;从木质林产品的碳储量和年平均碳储量变化结果来看,储量变化法估算的碳储量高于另外两种方法估算的碳储量结果,其次是大气流动法估算结果,生产法估算的碳储量结果最小。木质林产品在替代建筑材料产品方面减排潜力巨大。
(2)我国树种含碳率和基本密度随树种的不同而存在差异;测定的人造板产品含碳率平均值为0.466,基本密度的平均值是0.670t·m-3;含水率平均值5%;纸张含碳率是0.34,明显低于0.5。
(3)以产品使用寿命小于20年为限,对比木质产品的碳质量,结果依次是建筑模板<纸和纸板<坑木和支柱<装修用材<木桌椅<木门窗<木橱柜<木床<木结构房屋。
(4)储量变化法、生产法和大气流动法估算我国所有木质林产品(含薪材转化部分)碳储量到2020年将达1436.18MtC、1057.48MtC和1347.80MtC,其中在用产品的碳储量是1199.65MtC、869.20MtC和1095.07MtC。推算到2020年工业和建筑部门消耗木质林产品的碳储量分别为2373.57MtC,1279.22MtC和1437.33MtC。
(5)储量变化法、生产法和大气流动法估算各类在用木质林产品的碳储量总体呈上升趋势。其中纸和纸板以及人造板碳储量的增长趋势基本一致,锯材和其他工业原木产品的碳储量增长趋势类似。锯材、人造板、纸和纸板以及其他工业原木碳储量对在用木质林产品碳储量的贡献在核算方法之间没有明显差别,并且1990-2008年贡献率的变化趋势也一致。
(6)我国进出口木质林产品碳储量整体呈不断上升的趋势,并且是木质林产品净进口国。原木是净进口国,1900-2008年间工业原木净进口碳储量累计为141.09MtC。锯材、人造板、纸和纸板以及其他工业原木产品的总体表现为净进口,1900-2008年净进口产品碳储量合计为57.43MtC。
(7)蒙特卡洛方法模拟结果表明生产法估算的碳储量结果不确定性最高;碳储量结果对木材基本密度和产品使用寿命比较敏感。
(8)建筑用材碳储量在灰色系统模型和建筑房屋木材消耗强度的基础上预测到2020年建筑竣工面积达38亿m2,消耗木材将为1.56亿m3,则建筑业消耗木材碳储量累积为674.62MtC。
(9)预测到2020年家具业消耗木材约为35412万m3,则家具业消耗木材的碳储量将达363.96MtC。其中2008年国内消费家具碳储量为50.52MtC,预测到2020年是国内消费家具碳储量是354.38MtC。
(10)根据生产弹性系数和木材消耗强度预测到2020年我国造纸业用材约为440.90×106m3,相应的纸和纸板消耗木材的碳储量是442.26MtC。预测2020年国内纸和纸板所消耗木材的碳储量变化是57.08MtC·a-1。
(11)根据经济发展对煤炭的需求,预测到2020年我国煤炭业产量将达45.7亿吨,届时木材消耗量将达到1600万m3,煤炭业消耗木材的碳储量不断增长,到2020年碳储量将达39.51MtC。
Forest harvesting and wood products utilization alter the natural carbon cycle between the forest ecosystem and the atmosphere. Carbon is released during forest harvesting and manufacturing of wood products and in using and discarding of wood products. Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) is necessary content of National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGGI), and harvested wood products (HWP) is an important part of the negotiation of LULUCF. In order to enhance the quality of LULUCF of NGGI and the understanding of the carbon stocks of HWP in China, this paper determines the carbon accounting factors such as basic density, carbon fraction and intensity of consumption and so on from released papers and field investigations, and measured the conversion factors of wood-based panels. This paper gives the definite scope of HWP in order to fair principle. Besides, the concept of carbon quality is firstly put forward and applied for evaluating the effect of carbon storage of HWP.
Based on different classification of HWP and methodology suggested by IPCC, i.e. stock-change approach (SCA), production approach (PA) and atmospheric-flow approach (AFA), the carbon stocks of HWP was estimated firstly by using the stock-data methods and step regression methods. The uncertainty associated with carbon accumulation estimated in this study was evaluated with the Monte Carlo analysis, more specifically with the crystal ball software. Based on the use category, the forecasting methods of intensity of consumption of wood was applied for the prediction of different department consumption. And then carbon stocks of roundwood consumed from different industry was estimated by country-specific methods. In the view of the ultimate results and our national conditions, the stock change approach is more intuitive and would favor our country. Finally the paper analyzes the carbon dynamics and provides conclusions as followings:
(1) The HWP is a significant carbon pool in China, and it is increasing. The carbon stocks of HWP consumed in industry and construction department is also increasing, and the growing trend was fluctuated during 1980-2000. The results, which estimated by SCA, is the highest among the three alternative approaches while the results of PA is the lowest according to the results of carbon accumulation and annual mean carbon stock-change. This mainly because China is the net import of HWP. The reduction potential of substituting action and prolonging life would be magnitude in China.
(2) The difference of tree species results to the diversity of basic density and fraction of carbon. The average carbon fraction, basic density and moisture content in wood-based panels are 0.466, 0.67t·m-3 and 5% respectively. The carbon fraction of paper is 0.34.
(3) If the lifetime is limited to less than 20 years, the carbon quality of HWP evaluation shows: construction formwork (4) The carbon accumulation estimated by SCA, PA and AFA will be 1436.18MtC, 1057.48MtC and 1347.80MtC in 2020, respectively. And the carbon accumulation of HWP in use will be 1199.65MtC, 869.20MtC and 1095.07MtC。In 2020, the carbon accumulation of consumed wood of industry and construction department will reach to 2373.57MtC, 1279.22MtC and 1437.33MtC. And SCA will yield the highest carbon stocks.
(5) Separately estimated by three approaches during 1900-2008, the carbon accumulation of each type products in use was growing. The growing trend of carbon stocks of wood-based panels, the wood pulp paper and paperboard were consilient while sawnwood and other industrial round wood products saw the similar trend. The calculation of each kind of products in use to the total accumulation of HWP in use shared little difference among three approaches.
(6) The carbon stocks of HWP imported and exported were continuously rising in China and the imported greatly exceeded the exported. The roundwood has been a net import good for China during 1900-2008 and the carbon stocks of net imported round wood was 141.09MtC. The whole trend of all kinds of products showed net import, and the results of carbon stocks were 57.43MtC.
(7) Using Monte Carlo analysis, the uncertainty of results from PA was the highest. The results of carbon stocks of HWP were sensitivity to wood basic density and lifetime.
(8) Based on the grey model and intensity of consumption method, the consumption of wood in construction industry is forecasted Below: The completed area of buildings and houses will reach to 3.8 billion m2 in 2020, and the roundwood consumed will be 0.156 billion m3. The carbon accumulation of consumed wood in construction will be 674.62MtC.
(9) The consumption of wood in the furniture industry could be 354.12 million m3 and the carbon accumulation will be 363.96MtC in 2020. Besides, the carbon stocks of domestic furniture in use was 50.52MtC in 2008, and it will be to 354.38MtC.
(10) The consumption of wood in paper industry could be 440.90 million m3 based on the elasticity of paper production and intensity of consumption. And the carbon accumulation will be 442.26MtC accordingly. The carbon stock-change of domestic paper and paperboard in use will reach 57.08 MtC·a-1 in 2020.
(11) Due to economy development, the demand of coal will be increasing and it will reach 4.57 billion tons. The consumed wood will be up to 16million m3 while carbon stocks reaches 39.51MtC.
碳储量基于不同分类途径进行估算。论文首先基于FAO定义分类途径,以IPCC方法学框架为指导,应用储量数据法和逐步递归方程估算我国木质林产品的碳储量以及进出口木质林产品的碳储量;采用蒙特卡洛模拟分析碳储量结果的不确定性。然后在产品用途分类途径基础上,采用灰色系统模型预测我国建筑业和煤炭业的未来发展趋势,通过木材消耗强度法推算我国不同行业木材消耗情况,采用国家专门方法来分析我国不同部门消耗木材的碳储量变化规律。从数据获取难易的角度,按产品用途分类途径要优于FAO定义分类途径。从目前碳储量估算结果来看,我国木质林产品是一个增长的碳库;也是木质林产品净进口国,因此应用储量变化法对我国较为有利。主要结论如下:
(1)我国木质林产品是一个碳库,并且这个碳库碳储量增长越来越快。工业和建筑行业年消耗木材的碳储量不断增长。我国是木质林产品净进口国;从木质林产品的碳储量和年平均碳储量变化结果来看,储量变化法估算的碳储量高于另外两种方法估算的碳储量结果,其次是大气流动法估算结果,生产法估算的碳储量结果最小。木质林产品在替代建筑材料产品方面减排潜力巨大。
(2)我国树种含碳率和基本密度随树种的不同而存在差异;测定的人造板产品含碳率平均值为0.466,基本密度的平均值是0.670t·m-3;含水率平均值5%;纸张含碳率是0.34,明显低于0.5。
(3)以产品使用寿命小于20年为限,对比木质产品的碳质量,结果依次是建筑模板<纸和纸板<坑木和支柱<装修用材<木桌椅<木门窗<木橱柜<木床<木结构房屋。
(4)储量变化法、生产法和大气流动法估算我国所有木质林产品(含薪材转化部分)碳储量到2020年将达1436.18MtC、1057.48MtC和1347.80MtC,其中在用产品的碳储量是1199.65MtC、869.20MtC和1095.07MtC。推算到2020年工业和建筑部门消耗木质林产品的碳储量分别为2373.57MtC,1279.22MtC和1437.33MtC。
(5)储量变化法、生产法和大气流动法估算各类在用木质林产品的碳储量总体呈上升趋势。其中纸和纸板以及人造板碳储量的增长趋势基本一致,锯材和其他工业原木产品的碳储量增长趋势类似。锯材、人造板、纸和纸板以及其他工业原木碳储量对在用木质林产品碳储量的贡献在核算方法之间没有明显差别,并且1990-2008年贡献率的变化趋势也一致。
(6)我国进出口木质林产品碳储量整体呈不断上升的趋势,并且是木质林产品净进口国。原木是净进口国,1900-2008年间工业原木净进口碳储量累计为141.09MtC。锯材、人造板、纸和纸板以及其他工业原木产品的总体表现为净进口,1900-2008年净进口产品碳储量合计为57.43MtC。
(7)蒙特卡洛方法模拟结果表明生产法估算的碳储量结果不确定性最高;碳储量结果对木材基本密度和产品使用寿命比较敏感。
(8)建筑用材碳储量在灰色系统模型和建筑房屋木材消耗强度的基础上预测到2020年建筑竣工面积达38亿m2,消耗木材将为1.56亿m3,则建筑业消耗木材碳储量累积为674.62MtC。
(9)预测到2020年家具业消耗木材约为35412万m3,则家具业消耗木材的碳储量将达363.96MtC。其中2008年国内消费家具碳储量为50.52MtC,预测到2020年是国内消费家具碳储量是354.38MtC。
(10)根据生产弹性系数和木材消耗强度预测到2020年我国造纸业用材约为440.90×106m3,相应的纸和纸板消耗木材的碳储量是442.26MtC。预测2020年国内纸和纸板所消耗木材的碳储量变化是57.08MtC·a-1。
(11)根据经济发展对煤炭的需求,预测到2020年我国煤炭业产量将达45.7亿吨,届时木材消耗量将达到1600万m3,煤炭业消耗木材的碳储量不断增长,到2020年碳储量将达39.51MtC。
Forest harvesting and wood products utilization alter the natural carbon cycle between the forest ecosystem and the atmosphere. Carbon is released during forest harvesting and manufacturing of wood products and in using and discarding of wood products. Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) is necessary content of National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGGI), and harvested wood products (HWP) is an important part of the negotiation of LULUCF. In order to enhance the quality of LULUCF of NGGI and the understanding of the carbon stocks of HWP in China, this paper determines the carbon accounting factors such as basic density, carbon fraction and intensity of consumption and so on from released papers and field investigations, and measured the conversion factors of wood-based panels. This paper gives the definite scope of HWP in order to fair principle. Besides, the concept of carbon quality is firstly put forward and applied for evaluating the effect of carbon storage of HWP.
Based on different classification of HWP and methodology suggested by IPCC, i.e. stock-change approach (SCA), production approach (PA) and atmospheric-flow approach (AFA), the carbon stocks of HWP was estimated firstly by using the stock-data methods and step regression methods. The uncertainty associated with carbon accumulation estimated in this study was evaluated with the Monte Carlo analysis, more specifically with the crystal ball software. Based on the use category, the forecasting methods of intensity of consumption of wood was applied for the prediction of different department consumption. And then carbon stocks of roundwood consumed from different industry was estimated by country-specific methods. In the view of the ultimate results and our national conditions, the stock change approach is more intuitive and would favor our country. Finally the paper analyzes the carbon dynamics and provides conclusions as followings:
(1) The HWP is a significant carbon pool in China, and it is increasing. The carbon stocks of HWP consumed in industry and construction department is also increasing, and the growing trend was fluctuated during 1980-2000. The results, which estimated by SCA, is the highest among the three alternative approaches while the results of PA is the lowest according to the results of carbon accumulation and annual mean carbon stock-change. This mainly because China is the net import of HWP. The reduction potential of substituting action and prolonging life would be magnitude in China.
(2) The difference of tree species results to the diversity of basic density and fraction of carbon. The average carbon fraction, basic density and moisture content in wood-based panels are 0.466, 0.67t·m-3 and 5% respectively. The carbon fraction of paper is 0.34.
(3) If the lifetime is limited to less than 20 years, the carbon quality of HWP evaluation shows: construction formwork
(5) Separately estimated by three approaches during 1900-2008, the carbon accumulation of each type products in use was growing. The growing trend of carbon stocks of wood-based panels, the wood pulp paper and paperboard were consilient while sawnwood and other industrial round wood products saw the similar trend. The calculation of each kind of products in use to the total accumulation of HWP in use shared little difference among three approaches.
(6) The carbon stocks of HWP imported and exported were continuously rising in China and the imported greatly exceeded the exported. The roundwood has been a net import good for China during 1900-2008 and the carbon stocks of net imported round wood was 141.09MtC. The whole trend of all kinds of products showed net import, and the results of carbon stocks were 57.43MtC.
(7) Using Monte Carlo analysis, the uncertainty of results from PA was the highest. The results of carbon stocks of HWP were sensitivity to wood basic density and lifetime.
(8) Based on the grey model and intensity of consumption method, the consumption of wood in construction industry is forecasted Below: The completed area of buildings and houses will reach to 3.8 billion m2 in 2020, and the roundwood consumed will be 0.156 billion m3. The carbon accumulation of consumed wood in construction will be 674.62MtC.
(9) The consumption of wood in the furniture industry could be 354.12 million m3 and the carbon accumulation will be 363.96MtC in 2020. Besides, the carbon stocks of domestic furniture in use was 50.52MtC in 2008, and it will be to 354.38MtC.
(10) The consumption of wood in paper industry could be 440.90 million m3 based on the elasticity of paper production and intensity of consumption. And the carbon accumulation will be 442.26MtC accordingly. The carbon stock-change of domestic paper and paperboard in use will reach 57.08 MtC·a-1 in 2020.
(11) Due to economy development, the demand of coal will be increasing and it will reach 4.57 billion tons. The consumed wood will be up to 16million m3 while carbon stocks reaches 39.51MtC.
引文
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