齐鲁乙烯扩产节能改造技术经济决策评价研究
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摘要
齐鲁乙烯装置于1987年建成，装置设计规模为30万吨／年。1995-1998年对本装置进行了改扩建，能力扩展到45万吨／年。随着乙烯产品的日益供不应求，国内乙烯产品供需矛盾日益严重，齐鲁石化公司结合公司本身的发展情况，决定再次对乙烯装置进行扩容改造，并提出了生产规模为60万吨／年和72万吨／年两个改造方案。本文就乙烯改造的必要性、可行性以及这两个方案的比选等进行了详细的分析和评价，对乙烯技术改造过程中能源有效利用、水电系统、环境保护以及工程经济决策进行了详细的评价研究，主要包括以下及方面：
1、对乙烯改造的必要性、可行性以及市场调研、市场预测的准确性进行了详细分析评价。本文从考察企业的外部条件，结合企业的长期发展目标和核心竞争能力的提升，确定了技术改造的必要性。针对其行业特点和技术改造的特点展开了详细的调研和市场预测，使评价过程基本避免了主观倾向性的错误和偏差。
2、对提出的生产乙烯60万吨／年和72万吨／年两个改造方案进行了比选。本文对60万吨／年乙烯规模和72万吨／年乙烯规模裂解炉区、压缩区、分离及冷区改造方案的技术经济进行了详细对比，表明72万吨／年乙烯方案技术更加合理可行，经济指标更优。
3、从能源合理利用与能量集成角度对乙烯改造进行了分析评价，讨论厂蒸汽动力系统能量集成的方法和措施，并对过程进行能量集成设计。由于改造方案中充分考虑了能量的合理利用，乙烯装置改造后不仅生产规模扩大，而且能耗降低12％-14％，物耗和加工损失率也均有不同程度的下降。
4．对节水及环保的技术措施进行分析研究，通过运用先进的节水、节电和环保技术，优化了资源配置，既节约了资源，降低了物耗，同时又达到了环境保护的目的。这些技术措施必将为石化企业挖潜增效、降低成本提高竞争力做出巨大贡献，同时对解决石化企业解决环境问题有重要意义。
5．对乙烯改造方案进行了经济评价，针对可行性研究财务评价的偏差进行重新测算，通过财务评价，纠正了可行性研究报告中收益率计算偏高的错误。在测算方法上，重点借鉴评估专家的意见，并提出对原料和产品价格间的差价关系确定产品价格，并按“项目有无法”进行了收益的测算，提出应将因改造施工造成的停、减产损失计入投入。
通过对技术、经济及建设条件的综合评价，认为该项目是可行的，具有良好的经济效益和社会效益。
The ethylene devices in Qilu Petrochemical Corp. were established in May of 1987. The designed production capacity of the devices was 300 thousand t/a. During the years from 1995 to 1998 a new enlargement project was taken to increase the ethylene production to 450 thousand t/a. With the increasing demand of the ethylene production and the conflict between demanding and supplying severed. Concerned on the development condition, the Qilu Petrochemical Corp. decided to take a new enlargement project. And two schemes were advanced: they were 600thousand t/a and 720thousand t/a ethylene production. This paper presents the necessity, feasibility of the project. It also compared the two schemes and selected the more reasonable one.
(1). This paper analysis and evaluate the necessity, feasibility, the veracity of the market researching and the forecasting about the project. Considered the external condition, the future development target and the core competition capacity, the Corporation determined that the technique retrofit was necessary. As to this project this paper gives a detailed research and evaluation in terms of the industry feature and technique alternation characteristic. The evaluation in this paper is quite correct and impersonal.
(2)This paper also presents two schemes of the alternation project and gives detailed comparison of the two schemes. The analysis result shows that the 720thousand t/a ethylene production scheme is better.
(3)The evaluation for the reconstruction of ethylene plant has been made on the view of reasonable use and integration of energy. And the methods and measures of energy integration of steam power systems has been discussed in this paper. At the same time the design of the process with energy integration is carried out. Because the reasonable use of energy is considered enough in the reconstruction procedure, not only production size but energy consumption is reduced by 12 to 14 percent, and the consumption of materials and loss rate of manufacture are reduced in different degree.
(4)This paper makes an analysis on the technical measures of water saving and environment protection. The advanced technology of water saving, electricity saving and environment protection have been applied to optimize the energy allocation, which not only saves the resources and decrease the consumption of materials but also accomplish the aim of environment protection. These technological measures will contribute for digging the potential, improving the benefits, lowering the costs and increasing the competitiveness in petrochemical enterprises. What's more it is significant to solve the environmental problem of petrochemical enterprises.
(5)This paper makes an economical evaluation for the retrofit project of ethylene plants. Aiming at the financial evaluation difference of feasibility research, the reevaluation of which has been made. Based on the financial evaluation, it correct the errors due to relatively high evaluation for the rate of income in the report of feasibility research. As for the computing method, it lays emphasis on the suggestions of exports. And it suggests that the prices of productions are fixed according to the price differences between the raw materials and productions. What's more, the evaluation of benefits has been made according to existing or not for the projects. In addition, it points out that the losses caused by production-stopping and reduction of output because of construction for plants' retrofit.
By the all-around evaluation of the technological, economical and constructional conditions, it shows that the project is feasible, which has obvious economical and social benefits.
1、对乙烯改造的必要性、可行性以及市场调研、市场预测的准确性进行了详细分析评价。本文从考察企业的外部条件，结合企业的长期发展目标和核心竞争能力的提升，确定了技术改造的必要性。针对其行业特点和技术改造的特点展开了详细的调研和市场预测，使评价过程基本避免了主观倾向性的错误和偏差。
2、对提出的生产乙烯60万吨／年和72万吨／年两个改造方案进行了比选。本文对60万吨／年乙烯规模和72万吨／年乙烯规模裂解炉区、压缩区、分离及冷区改造方案的技术经济进行了详细对比，表明72万吨／年乙烯方案技术更加合理可行，经济指标更优。
3、从能源合理利用与能量集成角度对乙烯改造进行了分析评价，讨论厂蒸汽动力系统能量集成的方法和措施，并对过程进行能量集成设计。由于改造方案中充分考虑了能量的合理利用，乙烯装置改造后不仅生产规模扩大，而且能耗降低12％-14％，物耗和加工损失率也均有不同程度的下降。
4．对节水及环保的技术措施进行分析研究，通过运用先进的节水、节电和环保技术，优化了资源配置，既节约了资源，降低了物耗，同时又达到了环境保护的目的。这些技术措施必将为石化企业挖潜增效、降低成本提高竞争力做出巨大贡献，同时对解决石化企业解决环境问题有重要意义。
5．对乙烯改造方案进行了经济评价，针对可行性研究财务评价的偏差进行重新测算，通过财务评价，纠正了可行性研究报告中收益率计算偏高的错误。在测算方法上，重点借鉴评估专家的意见，并提出对原料和产品价格间的差价关系确定产品价格，并按“项目有无法”进行了收益的测算，提出应将因改造施工造成的停、减产损失计入投入。
通过对技术、经济及建设条件的综合评价，认为该项目是可行的，具有良好的经济效益和社会效益。
The ethylene devices in Qilu Petrochemical Corp. were established in May of 1987. The designed production capacity of the devices was 300 thousand t/a. During the years from 1995 to 1998 a new enlargement project was taken to increase the ethylene production to 450 thousand t/a. With the increasing demand of the ethylene production and the conflict between demanding and supplying severed. Concerned on the development condition, the Qilu Petrochemical Corp. decided to take a new enlargement project. And two schemes were advanced: they were 600thousand t/a and 720thousand t/a ethylene production. This paper presents the necessity, feasibility of the project. It also compared the two schemes and selected the more reasonable one.
(1). This paper analysis and evaluate the necessity, feasibility, the veracity of the market researching and the forecasting about the project. Considered the external condition, the future development target and the core competition capacity, the Corporation determined that the technique retrofit was necessary. As to this project this paper gives a detailed research and evaluation in terms of the industry feature and technique alternation characteristic. The evaluation in this paper is quite correct and impersonal.
(2)This paper also presents two schemes of the alternation project and gives detailed comparison of the two schemes. The analysis result shows that the 720thousand t/a ethylene production scheme is better.
(3)The evaluation for the reconstruction of ethylene plant has been made on the view of reasonable use and integration of energy. And the methods and measures of energy integration of steam power systems has been discussed in this paper. At the same time the design of the process with energy integration is carried out. Because the reasonable use of energy is considered enough in the reconstruction procedure, not only production size but energy consumption is reduced by 12 to 14 percent, and the consumption of materials and loss rate of manufacture are reduced in different degree.
(4)This paper makes an analysis on the technical measures of water saving and environment protection. The advanced technology of water saving, electricity saving and environment protection have been applied to optimize the energy allocation, which not only saves the resources and decrease the consumption of materials but also accomplish the aim of environment protection. These technological measures will contribute for digging the potential, improving the benefits, lowering the costs and increasing the competitiveness in petrochemical enterprises. What's more it is significant to solve the environmental problem of petrochemical enterprises.
(5)This paper makes an economical evaluation for the retrofit project of ethylene plants. Aiming at the financial evaluation difference of feasibility research, the reevaluation of which has been made. Based on the financial evaluation, it correct the errors due to relatively high evaluation for the rate of income in the report of feasibility research. As for the computing method, it lays emphasis on the suggestions of exports. And it suggests that the prices of productions are fixed according to the price differences between the raw materials and productions. What's more, the evaluation of benefits has been made according to existing or not for the projects. In addition, it points out that the losses caused by production-stopping and reduction of output because of construction for plants' retrofit.
By the all-around evaluation of the technological, economical and constructional conditions, it shows that the project is feasible, which has obvious economical and social benefits.
引文
1 冯霄、李勤凌．化工节能原理与技术．北京：化学工业出版社，1998，1-10
2 万威武．可行性研究与项目评价．西安：西安交通大学出版社，1999，55-61
3 张三力．项目后评价．北京：清华大学出版社，1998，35-41
4 张永春、邱成利．“项目可行性研究应突出重点” 《中国投资》，9／1999
5 项保华、李庆华．“波特模型及其改进” 《中国工业经济》，11／1999
6 杨继瑞，史向东《现代投资经济学》 四川大学出版社 2000，191-212
7 化工咨询服务公司编．工业项目可行性研究．北京：化学工业出版社，1982，37-104
8 王立国，王红岩，宋维佳．工程项目可行性研究．北京：人民邮电出版社，2002．8，100-126
9 张金锁．工程项目管理学．北京：科技出版社，2000．3，66-79
10 刘荔娟．现代项目管理．上海：上海财经大学出版社，1999．5，348-365
11 武春友．技术引进项目可行性研究．北京：中国经济出版社，1988，74-85
12 崔峨，尹洪超．热能系统分析与最优综合．大连：大连理工大学出版社．1994．7，181-183
13 Nishio, Umeda. A thermodynamic approach to steam-power system design. Ind Engng Chem. Process Des. Dew, 1980.
14 Linnhoff, Marsland. User Guide on Process Integration for the Efficient Use of Energy. Comput. Chem. Engng, 1982.
15 Papoulias, Grossmann. A structural optimisation approach in process synthesis——Ⅰ: utility systems. Comput. Chem. Engng, 1983a.
16 钱伯章．燃气轮机联产在石油化工中的应用[J]．石油化工，1986．15(1)：43-49．
17 Agazzani A. A tool for thermo-economic analysis and optimization of gas, steam and combined plants[J], ASME J. of Eng for Gas Turbine and Power. October, 1996, (10):479-484.
18 李振民，尹洪超，邱庆刚．联合循环与过程能量集成的温焓曲线夹点分析法[J]．大连理工大学学报，1999，39(5)：673-677．
19 蔡睿贤．余热锅炉节点温差及其对联合循环性能的影响[J]．工程热物理学报，1983，4(3)，223-226．
20 王松汉、王仁淦．概论我国乙烯装置改造[J]．石油化工
21 A. Alva-Argaez, A.C. Kokossis and R. Smith. Wastewater minimization of industrial systems using an integrated approach. Computers & Chemical Engineering, 1998, Vol.22(Supple): 741-744
22 Migule Bagajewicz. A review of recent design procedures for water networks in refineries and process plants. Computers and Chemical Engineering, 2000, 24:2093-2113
23 Olesen, S.G.&Polley, S.G. (1997).A simple methodology for the design of water networks handling single contaminants. Transactions of the Institution of Chemical Engineers, Part A, 75
24 T.K.Zhelev and N.Bhaw. Combined water-oxygen pinch analysis for better wastewater treatment management. Waste Management, 2000, 20, 665-670
25 Doyle, S. 3. &Smith, R (1997). Targeting water reuse with multiple contaminants. Transactions of International Chemical Engineering, Part 13, 75 (3), 181-189
26 王梅义．大电网系统技术．北京：水利电力出版社，1991，105-123
27 王士政．电网调度自动化与配网自动化技术．北京：中国水利水电出版社，2003，182-195
28 徐大图．建筑师技术经济与管理读本．北京：中国建筑出版社，1995．3，73-95
29 戚安邦．工程项目全面造价管理．天津：南开大学出版社，2000．12，56-81
30 梁世连．工程项目管理学．大连：东北财经大学出版社，2001，33-61
31 武春友，张米尔．技术经济学．大连：大连理工大学出版社，1998．9，276-312
32 从培经．工程项目管理．北京：中国建筑工业出版社，2000．7，63-76
33 万威武．可行性研究与项目评价．西安：两安交通大学出版社，1999，105-126
2 万威武．可行性研究与项目评价．西安：西安交通大学出版社，1999，55-61
3 张三力．项目后评价．北京：清华大学出版社，1998，35-41
4 张永春、邱成利．“项目可行性研究应突出重点” 《中国投资》，9／1999
5 项保华、李庆华．“波特模型及其改进” 《中国工业经济》，11／1999
6 杨继瑞，史向东《现代投资经济学》 四川大学出版社 2000，191-212
7 化工咨询服务公司编．工业项目可行性研究．北京：化学工业出版社，1982，37-104
8 王立国，王红岩，宋维佳．工程项目可行性研究．北京：人民邮电出版社，2002．8，100-126
9 张金锁．工程项目管理学．北京：科技出版社，2000．3，66-79
10 刘荔娟．现代项目管理．上海：上海财经大学出版社，1999．5，348-365
11 武春友．技术引进项目可行性研究．北京：中国经济出版社，1988，74-85
12 崔峨，尹洪超．热能系统分析与最优综合．大连：大连理工大学出版社．1994．7，181-183
13 Nishio, Umeda. A thermodynamic approach to steam-power system design. Ind Engng Chem. Process Des. Dew, 1980.
14 Linnhoff, Marsland. User Guide on Process Integration for the Efficient Use of Energy. Comput. Chem. Engng, 1982.
15 Papoulias, Grossmann. A structural optimisation approach in process synthesis——Ⅰ: utility systems. Comput. Chem. Engng, 1983a.
16 钱伯章．燃气轮机联产在石油化工中的应用[J]．石油化工，1986．15(1)：43-49．
17 Agazzani A. A tool for thermo-economic analysis and optimization of gas, steam and combined plants[J], ASME J. of Eng for Gas Turbine and Power. October, 1996, (10):479-484.
18 李振民，尹洪超，邱庆刚．联合循环与过程能量集成的温焓曲线夹点分析法[J]．大连理工大学学报，1999，39(5)：673-677．
19 蔡睿贤．余热锅炉节点温差及其对联合循环性能的影响[J]．工程热物理学报，1983，4(3)，223-226．
20 王松汉、王仁淦．概论我国乙烯装置改造[J]．石油化工
21 A. Alva-Argaez, A.C. Kokossis and R. Smith. Wastewater minimization of industrial systems using an integrated approach. Computers & Chemical Engineering, 1998, Vol.22(Supple): 741-744
22 Migule Bagajewicz. A review of recent design procedures for water networks in refineries and process plants. Computers and Chemical Engineering, 2000, 24:2093-2113
23 Olesen, S.G.&Polley, S.G. (1997).A simple methodology for the design of water networks handling single contaminants. Transactions of the Institution of Chemical Engineers, Part A, 75
24 T.K.Zhelev and N.Bhaw. Combined water-oxygen pinch analysis for better wastewater treatment management. Waste Management, 2000, 20, 665-670
25 Doyle, S. 3. &Smith, R (1997). Targeting water reuse with multiple contaminants. Transactions of International Chemical Engineering, Part 13, 75 (3), 181-189
26 王梅义．大电网系统技术．北京：水利电力出版社，1991，105-123
27 王士政．电网调度自动化与配网自动化技术．北京：中国水利水电出版社，2003，182-195
28 徐大图．建筑师技术经济与管理读本．北京：中国建筑出版社，1995．3，73-95
29 戚安邦．工程项目全面造价管理．天津：南开大学出版社，2000．12，56-81
30 梁世连．工程项目管理学．大连：东北财经大学出版社，2001，33-61
31 武春友，张米尔．技术经济学．大连：大连理工大学出版社，1998．9，276-312
32 从培经．工程项目管理．北京：中国建筑工业出版社，2000．7，63-76
33 万威武．可行性研究与项目评价．西安：两安交通大学出版社，1999，105-126