城市自然灾害定量评估方法及应用
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摘要
追溯历史,我们不难发现,人类的发展史既是一部战天斗地的历史,也是一部战胜自我的历史。从传说中的女娲补天到大禹之水,从战胜非典到抗击禽流感,人类与灾害的斗争从未停止过。城市化水平的不断提高标志着人类文明的日益进步,但是大量的事实也证明了当代城市发展与灾害存在着互馈关系,城市化进程中的种种失误加剧了城市灾害的发展,反过来灾害的加剧阻碍了城市的可持续发展,人类面临着新的考验.当前,灾害管理已经成为世界各国实现城市可持续发展的重要手段,而灾害评估始终是灾害管理的重要环节,是一切灾害管理决策的基础。灾害评估是全面反映灾害,确定减灾目标,优化防灾、抗灾、救灾措施,评价减灾效益、进行减灾决策的基本依据,也是制定国土利用、开发计划和制定社会经济发展计划的重要参考资料。从系统论的观点来看,城市灾害评估具有系统组成的高维特性、系统之间关联复杂和城市灾害系统作用的非线性等特点。因此,实现城市灾害的定量化评估作用重大而任务艰巨。灾害评估的内容如此庞杂,在短暂的博士求学期间对所有内容进行研究显然也是不可能实现的。因此,本文主要针对当前灾害评估中的一些热点和难点问题,以地震和风暴潮灾害为例进行了研究,其主要工作内容和成果摘要如下:
(1)在大量文献调查的基础上,本文论证了城市发展与灾害形成的互馈关系,阐明了灾害评估在城市灾害管理和可持续发展中的作用,梳理了国内外灾害评估特别是定量化评估的发展脉络,提出了灾害评估内容的四维模式,其组合构成了灾害评估空间。最后,对定量评估方法及其在灾害评估中的应用进行了总结,为本文将要开展的城市灾害等级评估和防灾减灾能力评估研究打下了方法论基础。
(2)构建了城市自然灾害等级识别的模糊聚类分析模型。首先厘清了灾害等级和等级评估的概念。然后,对灾害评估的内容,包括目前研究中使用的灾害等级的表征方法、灾害等级评估的指标体系、灾害等级评估的计算方法和等级划分方法进行阐述,指出了目前灾害等级评估中的不足。在此基础上,以风暴潮灾害为例,首先利用已有的直接经济损失、死亡人数和受灾面积数据,使用模糊聚类方法建立灾害等级的模式类,进而采用模糊贴近度的方法对待评估样本进行识别,建立了先聚类后识别的灾害等级评估方法体系。与其他方法相比,该方法体系更符合人们的认知过程。最后论文对该方法的适用性进行了讨论,指出样本的大小和区域性决定了该方法的可靠性和适用范围。
(3)构建了城市灾害等级的灰色神经网络预评估模型。与灾后评价相比,灾前或灾时提前获得灾害等级信息将极大提高救灾时效性,有助于灾害救援物资和人员的调配,减少灾害损失。本文以风暴潮灾害为例,利用风暴潮致灾因素数据为训练样本,以灾度为目标建立了三层BP神经网络模型,对灾害等级进行了预评估。利用灰色关联度分析法对相关因素进行筛选,可以减少预测的工作量,提高预测的精度,实证分析表明该方法是可行的。
(4)构建了城市社区抗震能力的模糊综合评价模型。论文以地震灾害为例讨论了城市社区防灾减灾能力评估方法体系。与建筑物抗震能力评估不同,本文构建的城市社区抗震能力模糊综合评价模型,充分考虑了城市社区多种因素,包括建筑密度、人口密度和一定强度下建筑物的破坏度对于其抗震能力的影响;利用排序法确定了各个因素的权重,使用模糊综合评价方法解决了由于概念模糊性造成的抗震能力等级划分的困难。利用ArcGIS空间数据管理、分析和制图能力,嵌入模糊综合评价模型作为模型库,形成了城市社区抗震能力快速评价系统,实现了决策的信息化与可视化,极大提高了决策的效能。通过对城市社区抗震能力评价,确定了其空间分布特征,为城市日常防灾减灾工作指明了重点,为城市改造特别是抗震规划决策提供了科学依据。
(5)构建了城市防震减灾能力三级模糊综合评价模型。其中,城市防震减灾能力评价指标体系的构建,指标权重的确定和评价方法的选择是本研究的关键环节。在本次研究中,采用了文献回顾和专家会议的办法初步构建了指标体系的框架,然后利用改进的德尔菲法经过两轮函询对选取的评价指标进行了进一步的筛选。在函询中,采用均数、变异系数、权威系数等统计量作为控制手段,因此与以往的单纯的专家会议法相比,提高了指标体系的科学性和可靠度;针对指标体系层次性强的特点,对于指标权重的确定则采用了经典的层次分析法;在最终评价方法的选择上,由于指标体系的庞杂,指标评价标准还没有统一的认识,因此采用了多级模糊综合评价的方法,充分利用专家经验知识克服了当前研究阶段数据不足、定性指标较多的困难。
Looking back into human development history,it is easy to find that this is not only a history to fight the nature,but also a history to conquer ourselves for mankind. From some ancient myths as "Nvwa mended the sky" to legends as "Dayu controlled water",from the victory of conquering "SARS" to the battle of resisting "bird flu", the fight between mankind and disasters never ends.As the urbanization degree continues to be improved,human civilization is advancing increasingly.But a great amount of facts also prove that there is a interaction between urban development and disasters nowadays,namely,various faults in the urbanization course aggravate the situation of urban disasters,in turn,the worse situation hinders the sustainable development of a city.So human beings face new trials.Currently,disaster management has become an important means to realize the urban sustainable development all over the world,while disaster assessment is always one of the important steps and the basis of all decision makings of disaster management.Disaster assessment is a basic foundation for reflecting disaster situation in all respects, confirming goals of disaster reduction,optimizing measures to disaster prevention, resistance and rescue,evaluating benefits of disaster reduction and making decisions of disaster reduction,as well as important references for making land exploitation and utilization plan and social and economic development plan.In terms of systems theory, urban disaster assessment target has such characteristics as high dimensional system structure,complex correlation and nonlinear action.As a result,it is an arduous task and has great effects to conduct urban disaster quantitative assessment.The contents of disaster assessment,however,are so extensive that it is impossible to explore all the problems in the transitory term of doctoral education.Therefore,this paper mainly focuses on some current hot or difficult spots of disaster assessment taking earthquake and storm surge as examples.The main contents and innovations are as follows:
(1) Firstly,based on large amounts of literature review,the interaction between the urban development and appearance of disaster is demonstrated.Secondly,the effect of disaster assessment in urban disaster management and sustainable development is elucidated.Thirdly,the development history of disaster assessment, especially the quantitative assessment conducted at home and abroad,is reviewed. Fourthly,the four dimension mode of the disaster assessment is proposed, combination of which constitutes the disaster assessment space.In the end,methods of quantitative assessment and their applications in natural disaster assessment are summarized,which are methodology basis on which researches of disaster grade assessment and capacity assessment on disaster prevention and reduction are conducted.
(2) A fuzzy cluster analysis model of urban natural disaster grade identification is constructed.At first,concepts of disaster grade and disaster grade assessment are clarified.Then,contents of disaster assessment are elaborated,which include denotation methods of disaster grade,index system and computation methods of disaster grade assessment,and gradation method of disaster grade,and some imperfections are pointed out.On the basis of the above research,taking storm surge disaster for example,using data of direct economic losses,death number and disaster area,pattern classes of disaster grade are created by fuzzy cluster method.Then the samples needing to be assessed are identified by fuzzy measure of similarity.So the methodology system of disaster grade assessment is established with such a step that grade identification follows the fuzzy cluster.Compared with other methods,this methodology system suits the human cognition process better.In the end,applicability of this method is discussed,and the fact that applicability range and reliability of this method is decided by amount and regional character of samples is pointed out.
(3) A grey neural networks prediction model of urban natural disaster grade is proposed.Compared with assessment after disaster,obtaining disaster grade information prior to disaster or during disaster term will help people implement disaster rescue,personal and relief materials assignment and reduce losses better and in time.Taking storm surge hazard data as training sample,a three layer BP neural networks model with a goal of disaster grade is established,and a hindcast is conducted using this model.Natural hazards are selected by grey correlation method, and in this way,amount of prediction work is reduced and prediction precision is improved.Case study testifies the feasibility of this method.
(4) A fuzzy synthetic evaluation model of seismic resistance capacity of urban communities(FSEMSRCUC) is presented.Assessment method of disaster prevention and reduction of urban communities is discussed using seismic disaster as example. Differing from assessment of seismic resistance capacity of constructions,impacts on seismic resistance capacity caused by multiple factors are fully considered in FSEMSRCUC,these factors consist of building density,population density and damage degree of buildings under certain seismic intensity.Weight of each index is confirmed by sorting method,and fuzzy synthetic evaluation is used to overcome difficulties of gradation of seismic resistance capacity caused by grade concept fuzziness.Using spatial data management,analysis and mapping ability of ArcGIS, fast evaluation system is built with a model base embedded with the fuzzy synthetic model.This system realizes informatization and visualization of decision making and thus greatly enhances its effectiveness.Through evaluation on seismic resistance of communities,its spatial distribution characters are confirmed,which can point out the focus of urban routine work of disaster prevention and reduction and provide scientific basis for urban reconstruction especially for decision making of seismic resistance planning.
(5) A three level fuzzy synthetic evaluation model of urban capacity of seismic prevention and disaster reduction is established.The key steps include index system construction of capacity of urban seismic prevention and disaster reduction, confirmation of index weight and selection of evaluation method.In this study, framework of index system is primarily constructed by literature review and expert meeting,and then the selected indexes are filtrated through two rounds of letter inquiry by modified Delphi method,in which some statistics such as average value, coefficient of variation and authority coefficient are adopted as control measures. Targeting the stronger hierarchy character of index system,weight of each index is obtained by the classic AHP method.Because the index system includes so complex and numerous indexes that the evaluation standard is not unified at present,so multiple level fuzzy synthetic evaluation method is adopted to overcome such difficulties that data are not sufficient and qualitative indexes are too much by fully using expert experience at current research stage.
(1)在大量文献调查的基础上,本文论证了城市发展与灾害形成的互馈关系,阐明了灾害评估在城市灾害管理和可持续发展中的作用,梳理了国内外灾害评估特别是定量化评估的发展脉络,提出了灾害评估内容的四维模式,其组合构成了灾害评估空间。最后,对定量评估方法及其在灾害评估中的应用进行了总结,为本文将要开展的城市灾害等级评估和防灾减灾能力评估研究打下了方法论基础。
(2)构建了城市自然灾害等级识别的模糊聚类分析模型。首先厘清了灾害等级和等级评估的概念。然后,对灾害评估的内容,包括目前研究中使用的灾害等级的表征方法、灾害等级评估的指标体系、灾害等级评估的计算方法和等级划分方法进行阐述,指出了目前灾害等级评估中的不足。在此基础上,以风暴潮灾害为例,首先利用已有的直接经济损失、死亡人数和受灾面积数据,使用模糊聚类方法建立灾害等级的模式类,进而采用模糊贴近度的方法对待评估样本进行识别,建立了先聚类后识别的灾害等级评估方法体系。与其他方法相比,该方法体系更符合人们的认知过程。最后论文对该方法的适用性进行了讨论,指出样本的大小和区域性决定了该方法的可靠性和适用范围。
(3)构建了城市灾害等级的灰色神经网络预评估模型。与灾后评价相比,灾前或灾时提前获得灾害等级信息将极大提高救灾时效性,有助于灾害救援物资和人员的调配,减少灾害损失。本文以风暴潮灾害为例,利用风暴潮致灾因素数据为训练样本,以灾度为目标建立了三层BP神经网络模型,对灾害等级进行了预评估。利用灰色关联度分析法对相关因素进行筛选,可以减少预测的工作量,提高预测的精度,实证分析表明该方法是可行的。
(4)构建了城市社区抗震能力的模糊综合评价模型。论文以地震灾害为例讨论了城市社区防灾减灾能力评估方法体系。与建筑物抗震能力评估不同,本文构建的城市社区抗震能力模糊综合评价模型,充分考虑了城市社区多种因素,包括建筑密度、人口密度和一定强度下建筑物的破坏度对于其抗震能力的影响;利用排序法确定了各个因素的权重,使用模糊综合评价方法解决了由于概念模糊性造成的抗震能力等级划分的困难。利用ArcGIS空间数据管理、分析和制图能力,嵌入模糊综合评价模型作为模型库,形成了城市社区抗震能力快速评价系统,实现了决策的信息化与可视化,极大提高了决策的效能。通过对城市社区抗震能力评价,确定了其空间分布特征,为城市日常防灾减灾工作指明了重点,为城市改造特别是抗震规划决策提供了科学依据。
(5)构建了城市防震减灾能力三级模糊综合评价模型。其中,城市防震减灾能力评价指标体系的构建,指标权重的确定和评价方法的选择是本研究的关键环节。在本次研究中,采用了文献回顾和专家会议的办法初步构建了指标体系的框架,然后利用改进的德尔菲法经过两轮函询对选取的评价指标进行了进一步的筛选。在函询中,采用均数、变异系数、权威系数等统计量作为控制手段,因此与以往的单纯的专家会议法相比,提高了指标体系的科学性和可靠度;针对指标体系层次性强的特点,对于指标权重的确定则采用了经典的层次分析法;在最终评价方法的选择上,由于指标体系的庞杂,指标评价标准还没有统一的认识,因此采用了多级模糊综合评价的方法,充分利用专家经验知识克服了当前研究阶段数据不足、定性指标较多的困难。
Looking back into human development history,it is easy to find that this is not only a history to fight the nature,but also a history to conquer ourselves for mankind. From some ancient myths as "Nvwa mended the sky" to legends as "Dayu controlled water",from the victory of conquering "SARS" to the battle of resisting "bird flu", the fight between mankind and disasters never ends.As the urbanization degree continues to be improved,human civilization is advancing increasingly.But a great amount of facts also prove that there is a interaction between urban development and disasters nowadays,namely,various faults in the urbanization course aggravate the situation of urban disasters,in turn,the worse situation hinders the sustainable development of a city.So human beings face new trials.Currently,disaster management has become an important means to realize the urban sustainable development all over the world,while disaster assessment is always one of the important steps and the basis of all decision makings of disaster management.Disaster assessment is a basic foundation for reflecting disaster situation in all respects, confirming goals of disaster reduction,optimizing measures to disaster prevention, resistance and rescue,evaluating benefits of disaster reduction and making decisions of disaster reduction,as well as important references for making land exploitation and utilization plan and social and economic development plan.In terms of systems theory, urban disaster assessment target has such characteristics as high dimensional system structure,complex correlation and nonlinear action.As a result,it is an arduous task and has great effects to conduct urban disaster quantitative assessment.The contents of disaster assessment,however,are so extensive that it is impossible to explore all the problems in the transitory term of doctoral education.Therefore,this paper mainly focuses on some current hot or difficult spots of disaster assessment taking earthquake and storm surge as examples.The main contents and innovations are as follows:
(1) Firstly,based on large amounts of literature review,the interaction between the urban development and appearance of disaster is demonstrated.Secondly,the effect of disaster assessment in urban disaster management and sustainable development is elucidated.Thirdly,the development history of disaster assessment, especially the quantitative assessment conducted at home and abroad,is reviewed. Fourthly,the four dimension mode of the disaster assessment is proposed, combination of which constitutes the disaster assessment space.In the end,methods of quantitative assessment and their applications in natural disaster assessment are summarized,which are methodology basis on which researches of disaster grade assessment and capacity assessment on disaster prevention and reduction are conducted.
(2) A fuzzy cluster analysis model of urban natural disaster grade identification is constructed.At first,concepts of disaster grade and disaster grade assessment are clarified.Then,contents of disaster assessment are elaborated,which include denotation methods of disaster grade,index system and computation methods of disaster grade assessment,and gradation method of disaster grade,and some imperfections are pointed out.On the basis of the above research,taking storm surge disaster for example,using data of direct economic losses,death number and disaster area,pattern classes of disaster grade are created by fuzzy cluster method.Then the samples needing to be assessed are identified by fuzzy measure of similarity.So the methodology system of disaster grade assessment is established with such a step that grade identification follows the fuzzy cluster.Compared with other methods,this methodology system suits the human cognition process better.In the end,applicability of this method is discussed,and the fact that applicability range and reliability of this method is decided by amount and regional character of samples is pointed out.
(3) A grey neural networks prediction model of urban natural disaster grade is proposed.Compared with assessment after disaster,obtaining disaster grade information prior to disaster or during disaster term will help people implement disaster rescue,personal and relief materials assignment and reduce losses better and in time.Taking storm surge hazard data as training sample,a three layer BP neural networks model with a goal of disaster grade is established,and a hindcast is conducted using this model.Natural hazards are selected by grey correlation method, and in this way,amount of prediction work is reduced and prediction precision is improved.Case study testifies the feasibility of this method.
(4) A fuzzy synthetic evaluation model of seismic resistance capacity of urban communities(FSEMSRCUC) is presented.Assessment method of disaster prevention and reduction of urban communities is discussed using seismic disaster as example. Differing from assessment of seismic resistance capacity of constructions,impacts on seismic resistance capacity caused by multiple factors are fully considered in FSEMSRCUC,these factors consist of building density,population density and damage degree of buildings under certain seismic intensity.Weight of each index is confirmed by sorting method,and fuzzy synthetic evaluation is used to overcome difficulties of gradation of seismic resistance capacity caused by grade concept fuzziness.Using spatial data management,analysis and mapping ability of ArcGIS, fast evaluation system is built with a model base embedded with the fuzzy synthetic model.This system realizes informatization and visualization of decision making and thus greatly enhances its effectiveness.Through evaluation on seismic resistance of communities,its spatial distribution characters are confirmed,which can point out the focus of urban routine work of disaster prevention and reduction and provide scientific basis for urban reconstruction especially for decision making of seismic resistance planning.
(5) A three level fuzzy synthetic evaluation model of urban capacity of seismic prevention and disaster reduction is established.The key steps include index system construction of capacity of urban seismic prevention and disaster reduction, confirmation of index weight and selection of evaluation method.In this study, framework of index system is primarily constructed by literature review and expert meeting,and then the selected indexes are filtrated through two rounds of letter inquiry by modified Delphi method,in which some statistics such as average value, coefficient of variation and authority coefficient are adopted as control measures. Targeting the stronger hierarchy character of index system,weight of each index is obtained by the classic AHP method.Because the index system includes so complex and numerous indexes that the evaluation standard is not unified at present,so multiple level fuzzy synthetic evaluation method is adopted to overcome such difficulties that data are not sufficient and qualitative indexes are too much by fully using expert experience at current research stage.
引文
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