地方政府支线航空发展决策支持方法研究
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摘要
本论文重点研究了地方政府在支持当地航空运输发展的决策方法。本文首先结合我国支线航空运输的实际情况,重新明确了支线航空运输的定义,在此基础上分析了我国目前支线航空的发展现状和趋势。接着提出了在支线机场建设发展中运用最优组合模型进行旅客吞吐量预测,模型采用误差平方和最小为目标函数,确定组合模型的权重系数,本文采用该模型对常州机场的客货吞吐量进行预测,将得到的结果与单一模型预测的结果相比,具有较好的精度。随后提出利用投入产出法和增加值法以评价支线航空运输的经济效益,并以江苏省的支线航空运输为例进行了评价,发现支线机场的间接效益要远远超过它自身所创造的经济效益。对于支线航空运输的社会效益,本文应用专家意见法对其社会效益贡献度进行评价。最后,设计了支线航空运输综合效益评价体系,通过层次分析法(AHP)进行分析,为地方政府提供决策支持。
This paper focused on the local government in the development of air transport in support of local decision-making methods. Firstly, this paper put forward to redefine the regional air transport considering air transport in our country's actual situation, and analyses regional aviation development in China's current status and trends on this basis. Then put forward to use the optimal combination of model to passenger and cargo throughput in the construction and development of regional airports. The model used the minimum sum of the squared error as the objective function to determine the weight factor of the combination model. This paper used the model to forecast the throughput of Changzhou Airport, the results obtained with a single predicted by the model results were compared with a good accuracy. This paper proposed to use the input-output method and Value Added method to evaluate the economic benefits of regional air transport and uses them to evaluate the benefits of Jiangsu province’s regional air transport finding that the indirect benefits to far exceed the economic benefits created by its own. For the extension of the social benefits of regional air transport, this paper adopted expert opinion method to evaluate its social benefits.
Finally, this paper designed evaluation system of the regional air transport comprehensive benefit and provided decision support for local governments by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis.
This paper focused on the local government in the development of air transport in support of local decision-making methods. Firstly, this paper put forward to redefine the regional air transport considering air transport in our country's actual situation, and analyses regional aviation development in China's current status and trends on this basis. Then put forward to use the optimal combination of model to passenger and cargo throughput in the construction and development of regional airports. The model used the minimum sum of the squared error as the objective function to determine the weight factor of the combination model. This paper used the model to forecast the throughput of Changzhou Airport, the results obtained with a single predicted by the model results were compared with a good accuracy. This paper proposed to use the input-output method and Value Added method to evaluate the economic benefits of regional air transport and uses them to evaluate the benefits of Jiangsu province’s regional air transport finding that the indirect benefits to far exceed the economic benefits created by its own. For the extension of the social benefits of regional air transport, this paper adopted expert opinion method to evaluate its social benefits.
Finally, this paper designed evaluation system of the regional air transport comprehensive benefit and provided decision support for local governments by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis.
引文
[1]中国民用航空局.中国民航统计年鉴[Z].1990-2009.
[2]方贵金.民航支线市场旅游航线布局及管理体制研究, [博士学位论文].四川成都,西南交通大学,2006.
[3]苏建克.我国支线航空的发展模式研究,[工商管理(MBA)硕士学位论文].哈尔滨,哈尔滨工业大学,2001.
[4]詹谊.从对比看大陆支线航空发展瓶颈[J].中国民用航空,2003 (2):23~25.
[5]刘万明.营造良好运营环境加快发展支线航空[J].中国民用航空,2003 (5): 15~17.
[6]陈晓宁.政府有效的政策支持是发展我国支线航空的关键[J].国际航空,2003(4) .
[7]刘勇.支线航空的航线决策方法研究, [工商管理(MBA)硕士学位论文].合肥,中国科技大学: 56~58.
[8]张再斌.关于中国支线航空环境分析和发展策略的研究, [工商管理(MBA)硕士学位论文].成都,西南交通大学,2004.
[9]陈晓宁.政府有效的政策支持是发展我国支线航空的关键[J].国际航空,2003,(4): 23~25.
[10] Air Transport Asstionaitong of America,Aviation and the Community,Washiongton,DC,1997.3.
[11] De Vany A,Garges E H . A forecast of air travel and airport and airway use in 1980.Transportation Research,1972,6:1~18.
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[14]黄为.中国支线航空运输实证分析[J].中国民用航空,2002.05:15~17.
[15]种曼婷.我国支线航空运输的现状及发展趋势[J].宏观经济管理,2008(5):26~28.
[16]刘晓明.我国民用机场等级分布的合理性分析[J].综合运输,2006.07:20~23.
[17]巴西航空工业公司.中国支线航空市场预测[M].2008.9.
[18] Armstrong J S. Combining forecasts:The end of the beginning or the begriming of the end Internet Journal of Foreeasting.1989,5:585~588.
[19] Bates J M, Granger C W J. The combination of forecast. Operational Research Quarterly,1969, 20:451~468.
[20] Granger C.W.J, Combining Foreeasts一Twenty Years Later[J]. Joumal of forecasting,1989, 8(3):167~173.
[21]唐小我.组合预测计算方法研究[J].预测,1991.10(4):35~39.
[22]马永开,唐小我,杨桂元.非负权重最优组合预测方法的基本理论研究[J].运筹与管理,1997,6(2):1~8.
[23]王应明,罗英.广义加权算术平均组合预测技术研究[J].运筹与管理,1998.17(l): 51~53.
[24]王明涛.确定组合预测权系数最优近似解的方法研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000, 20(3):104~108.
[25]曹允春,杨震.航空运输对区域经济发展的影响分析[J].综合运输,2007.3,43~47.
[26]张宁,徐勇敢.民用航空旅客运输对西藏经济发展的贡献[J].综合运输,2007.03:35~37.
[27] Kanafani. A, Transportation demand analysis[M].New York :McGraw-Hill,1983.22~45.
[28] ACI Europe/York Consulting. Creating Employment and Prosperity in Europe: An Economic Impact Study Kit.[R].2002,2.
[29] International Labour Organization,The Impact of Civil Aviation on the US Economy[R].2003.
[30] IATA. Aviation Economic Benefits, IATA Economics Briefing No.8.2007,7.
[31] ATAG. The economic and social benefits of air transport 2008,http://www,atag.org,2008.4.
[32]航空安全技术中心发展所.机场业发展的社会经济效益评价[R].2009.4.
[33]曹允春.中枢机场在区域经济发展中的作用[J].经济地理,2001(3):240~243.
[34]叶舟,李忠民,李晓峰.中国民航发展与国民经济增长关系的实质分析[J].天津理工大学学报,2005(10):81-84.
[35]国务院发展研究中心.发展北京临空经济的经济社会影响研究报告[R]. 2006.
[36]杨松,王威.航空业运输量增长与国内生产总值增长的关系研究[J].中国民用航空,2006(1):47~50.
[37]吴涛,王运泉.广州新白云机场对花都地区经济发展影响分析[J].广州大学学报(自然科学版),2005(6):243~248.
[38]曹景舜.西北地区的支线航空发展[J].中国民用航空,2002.5:44~45.
[39]徐蔼婷.德尔菲法的应用及其特点[J].中国统计,2008.7:57~59.
[40]郭毓峰.基于德尔菲法的我国石油安全度评价[J].商场现代化,2009.2:46~49.
[41]陈衍泰,陈国宏,李美娟.综合评价方法分类及研究进展[J].管理科学学报,2004(2):52~55
[42]张亚斌,李峰,曾峥.贸易强国的评判体系构建及其指标化[J].世界经济研究,2007(10):56~58.
[43]梁亚樨,谢东.AHP层次分析法在行政决策中的作用[J].重庆文理学院学报(自然科学版),2007.10(5):41~45.
[44]孙建军,成颖.定量分析方法[M].南京大学出版社,2005.
[45]马辉民,李强.应用AHP层次分析法评估ERP项目风险[J].计算机与数字工程,2005(3):41~44.
[46]胡明甫. AHP层次分析法及MATLAB的应用研究[J].钢铁技术,2004(2):43~46.
[2]方贵金.民航支线市场旅游航线布局及管理体制研究, [博士学位论文].四川成都,西南交通大学,2006.
[3]苏建克.我国支线航空的发展模式研究,[工商管理(MBA)硕士学位论文].哈尔滨,哈尔滨工业大学,2001.
[4]詹谊.从对比看大陆支线航空发展瓶颈[J].中国民用航空,2003 (2):23~25.
[5]刘万明.营造良好运营环境加快发展支线航空[J].中国民用航空,2003 (5): 15~17.
[6]陈晓宁.政府有效的政策支持是发展我国支线航空的关键[J].国际航空,2003(4) .
[7]刘勇.支线航空的航线决策方法研究, [工商管理(MBA)硕士学位论文].合肥,中国科技大学: 56~58.
[8]张再斌.关于中国支线航空环境分析和发展策略的研究, [工商管理(MBA)硕士学位论文].成都,西南交通大学,2004.
[9]陈晓宁.政府有效的政策支持是发展我国支线航空的关键[J].国际航空,2003,(4): 23~25.
[10] Air Transport Asstionaitong of America,Aviation and the Community,Washiongton,DC,1997.3.
[11] De Vany A,Garges E H . A forecast of air travel and airport and airway use in 1980.Transportation Research,1972,6:1~18.
[12] Oxford Economic Forecasting,the Contribution of the Aviation Industry to Economy,[R],1999.11
[13]赵学训.支线航空与支线飞机[M].中国民航出版社,2005.
[14]黄为.中国支线航空运输实证分析[J].中国民用航空,2002.05:15~17.
[15]种曼婷.我国支线航空运输的现状及发展趋势[J].宏观经济管理,2008(5):26~28.
[16]刘晓明.我国民用机场等级分布的合理性分析[J].综合运输,2006.07:20~23.
[17]巴西航空工业公司.中国支线航空市场预测[M].2008.9.
[18] Armstrong J S. Combining forecasts:The end of the beginning or the begriming of the end Internet Journal of Foreeasting.1989,5:585~588.
[19] Bates J M, Granger C W J. The combination of forecast. Operational Research Quarterly,1969, 20:451~468.
[20] Granger C.W.J, Combining Foreeasts一Twenty Years Later[J]. Joumal of forecasting,1989, 8(3):167~173.
[21]唐小我.组合预测计算方法研究[J].预测,1991.10(4):35~39.
[22]马永开,唐小我,杨桂元.非负权重最优组合预测方法的基本理论研究[J].运筹与管理,1997,6(2):1~8.
[23]王应明,罗英.广义加权算术平均组合预测技术研究[J].运筹与管理,1998.17(l): 51~53.
[24]王明涛.确定组合预测权系数最优近似解的方法研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000, 20(3):104~108.
[25]曹允春,杨震.航空运输对区域经济发展的影响分析[J].综合运输,2007.3,43~47.
[26]张宁,徐勇敢.民用航空旅客运输对西藏经济发展的贡献[J].综合运输,2007.03:35~37.
[27] Kanafani. A, Transportation demand analysis[M].New York :McGraw-Hill,1983.22~45.
[28] ACI Europe/York Consulting. Creating Employment and Prosperity in Europe: An Economic Impact Study Kit.[R].2002,2.
[29] International Labour Organization,The Impact of Civil Aviation on the US Economy[R].2003.
[30] IATA. Aviation Economic Benefits, IATA Economics Briefing No.8.2007,7.
[31] ATAG. The economic and social benefits of air transport 2008,http://www,atag.org,2008.4.
[32]航空安全技术中心发展所.机场业发展的社会经济效益评价[R].2009.4.
[33]曹允春.中枢机场在区域经济发展中的作用[J].经济地理,2001(3):240~243.
[34]叶舟,李忠民,李晓峰.中国民航发展与国民经济增长关系的实质分析[J].天津理工大学学报,2005(10):81-84.
[35]国务院发展研究中心.发展北京临空经济的经济社会影响研究报告[R]. 2006.
[36]杨松,王威.航空业运输量增长与国内生产总值增长的关系研究[J].中国民用航空,2006(1):47~50.
[37]吴涛,王运泉.广州新白云机场对花都地区经济发展影响分析[J].广州大学学报(自然科学版),2005(6):243~248.
[38]曹景舜.西北地区的支线航空发展[J].中国民用航空,2002.5:44~45.
[39]徐蔼婷.德尔菲法的应用及其特点[J].中国统计,2008.7:57~59.
[40]郭毓峰.基于德尔菲法的我国石油安全度评价[J].商场现代化,2009.2:46~49.
[41]陈衍泰,陈国宏,李美娟.综合评价方法分类及研究进展[J].管理科学学报,2004(2):52~55
[42]张亚斌,李峰,曾峥.贸易强国的评判体系构建及其指标化[J].世界经济研究,2007(10):56~58.
[43]梁亚樨,谢东.AHP层次分析法在行政决策中的作用[J].重庆文理学院学报(自然科学版),2007.10(5):41~45.
[44]孙建军,成颖.定量分析方法[M].南京大学出版社,2005.
[45]马辉民,李强.应用AHP层次分析法评估ERP项目风险[J].计算机与数字工程,2005(3):41~44.
[46]胡明甫. AHP层次分析法及MATLAB的应用研究[J].钢铁技术,2004(2):43~46.