政策约束下的中国农户就业决策与劳动力流动
摘要
在改革开放以来的30年里,中国农村发生了翻天覆地的变化,农村中的一系列问题也愈来愈引起人们的关注。近年来,“三农”问题成为政府实践和学术研究的焦点。然而,解决这一系列问题的出路是什么?笔者认为,解决“三农”问题的出路在于解决农民问题。而农民收入又居于关键与核心的地位。与农民收入紧密相连的即是收入的来源问题。实证资料表明,农民的绝大多数收入来源于劳动收入。因此,劳动就业成为农民收入增长的关键要素。展开此类问题的研究就需要我们以一个恰当的视角对农民的劳动就业行为进行细致的研究。具体而言,中国农民的就业行为通常处在特定的社会经济转型的背景和一定的政策制度的约束之下。因此,全面深入地理解农民的就业和劳动力流动行为不仅仅需要单纯研究农民的就业行为本身,还需要将农民的行为放置在特定的政策约束下进行研究。
基于上述认识,本文以农户家庭的分析为基础,从中国农户收入流增长及其来源的分析出发,围绕农户就业决策和劳动力流动这一重要现象,分析了改革以来中国农民就业行为的演变,农村劳动力流动行为的演变以及相应政策制度的演变规律及其特征。在此基础上,采用静态和动态两条分析路径,运用笔者在农村的实地调查资料和湖北农户跟踪调查资料重点研究了农户就业决策和劳动力流动的影响因素,并细致地分析了政策约束下农户就业决策和劳动力流动的行为。本文的研究试图为进一步全面而深入地认识农民就业和政府行为及其政策提供基础信息。本文从理论层面回答了改革以来农民就业为什么会形成如此的理性行为,农户家庭的内生和外生就业决策机制是什么,政策制度以及其他经济社会因素如何影响着农民的就业和流动行为等问题。从实证层面回答了改革以来农民的就业行为如何,政策思路如何,未来的政策将需要如何完善以拓宽农民就业渠道,提升农民就业层次,持续提高农民收入等问题。
全文共分为6章。第1章在描述本项研究的理论和现实背景的基础上,提出本文研究的核心问题是:农户就业决策和劳动力流动行为的影响因素,以及政策对就业决策行为的约束。此后,对本领域研究的文献作出简要综述,并介绍了全文研究的思路、方法和实证数据。第2章提出本文的理论分析框架。这一章首先对四组重要的概念进行界定,即:农户与农户家庭、就业决策与就业选择、劳动力流动与迁移、政策约束与制度约束。然后,提出本文的分析框架:芝加哥理论分析框架,本文的研究基于此框架却又不拘泥于这一基本框架。接下来则提出从静态和动态两条路径展开本文的研究。最后,提出了本文的基本假设。第3章重点以湖北农户调查资料为例分析了中国农户就业决策行为及其影响因素。第4章研究了中国农户劳动力流动行为及其影响因素。第5章将农户的就业决策和劳动力流动放在特定的政策约束下进行了详细地分析。第6章是本文的总体研究结论和政策建议。
本文运用大量的农户调查资料对农户家庭的就业决策和劳动力流动行为以及政策对其影响的作用机制进行了细致地分析,论文的创新主要体现在如下几个方面:
(1)研究视角的创新:本文的研究是基于农户家庭层面展开对农民就业决策和劳动力流动行为的分析。论文采用家庭整体效用最大化的行为分析框架研究了农户家庭内部劳动就业决策的内生机制。在此基础上,对农户之间社会互动的就业决策行为进行了探讨。全文以农户家庭层面为基础视角对农村劳动力就业和流动行为作出的研究与以往更多从宏观角度或者劳动力个体角度进行的研究文献具有极大的不同。
(2)研究方法的创新:在实地调查的过程中笔者运用深度访谈法、个案调查法和焦点问题讨论法,并在具体的分析中更为清晰地考察了各种类型农户的劳动就业决策行为。在个案分析的同时本文利用横截面数据、跟踪调查的农户面板数据和时间序列数据对农户的就业决策和劳动力流动行为进行静态和动态的计量分析。尤其是采用了动态面板多元离散选择模型对农户的动态就业决策行为选择及其各种因素的影响进行了计量分析,这是国内首次运用此方法展开对农户动态就业决策行为的深入探索。在对政策约束的分析中,则采用了综合归纳的方法将影响农户就业决策行为和劳动力流动的政策进行了适当抽象和归纳,并分类进行了研究。从研究方法的总体上看,由上述方法综合形成的实证研究突破了以往在农村劳动力就业和流动行为研究领域集中于运用静态的实证分析方法的现状。
(3)本文采用家庭经济行为分析的基本框架,首次对不同经济禀赋条件下的农户家庭劳动就业决策行为以及农户参与村庄互动博弈的机制进行了细致分析。研究认为:处于不同经济状况下的农户,其理性就业决策行为所表现出的外化行为特征不尽相同。针对不同的经济禀赋条件和行为特征,本文将农户的基本类型分为:生存压力型农户、效益追求型农户和经济发展型农户。此外,本文认为,农户家庭不仅仅涉及内部成员的分工分业,农户作为整体也参与了村庄社区的互动博弈。随着农户在村庄中相对经济地位的提高,家庭在村庄中与邻居的互动博弈收益(包括物质和非物质的综合收益)有所提高,家庭在从整体效用较低的情形逐步转换到效用较高的情形的过程中,其转换的机制也由“调整”和“追赶”变为“惯性”机制。
(4)本文运用动态计量分析方法对中国农民就业行为特征产生了新的认识。本文认为,处于外部宏观环境变动中的农户经济组织是一个完整的经济系统。研究表明,农户家庭就业决策系统呈现出稳定的“状态依赖”特征。当前,中国农村已经形成了“农村就业两端刚性”的趋势。在农村就业行为取向的一端是具有很强乡土情结的以农业为生的农户家庭。这一类农户家庭在当前农村中的数量在减少,但他们确实比较稳定地存在着。他们的就业行为仍然保持往日的状态,行为变化非常小。在另一端,具有非农经营或者外出就业行为的农户在未来的就业行为选择中具有越来越强烈的“非农化”倾向。处于上述两端就业状态的农户非常多,处于中间状态的农户则相对少,因而形成了农村劳动力就业的“刚性”特征。
(5)首次开创性地运用社会乘数效应研究政策制度对农户就业决策行为影响的传导机制。通过对特定政策约束下农户就业决策行为影响机制的研究,揭示出政策的边际变化对单个农户就业决策和劳动力流动行为的影响程度。本文通过对农村中社会互动行为的研究提出了新的解释政策因素如何在农村社区群体中进行渗透的理论。本文的研究表明:由于社会互动行为的影响,随着某个农户所处社区群体行为对其就业决策行为的影响越大,农户之间的联系越紧密,整个群体的社会乘数效应也越大,进而使得政策变动效应在整个社区成员之间相互渗透的力度越大,政策影响也就更为广泛。
(6)首次从动态变迁的角度分析改革以来涉农的劳动就业政策的演变规律及其与农户就业决策行为变迁之间的互动演进关系。本文的研究表明了改革开放以来涉农的劳动就业政策制度的变迁呈现出三大规律:第一,尽管各个时期政府的具体政策措施针对当时的社会经济发展状况和就业形势在不断地变化之中,然而每一个阶段的政策都至少在某一个方面沿袭了前一阶段的政策导向。第二,如果从总体的政策变迁趋势上看,随着时间的推移和改革的深入,政府在对待农民“在农村内部非农就业”以及“到城市流动就业”两方面就业渠道的态度上较之以往都显得更为积极。第三,改革以来不断进行着的政策制度创新是一种自下而上的过程,创新的强大动力首先来自农民。每一阶段的政策相应于农民的就业行为均做出了反应,但这种反应相对于农民就业行为来讲有所滞后。在政府政策与农民就业行为不断的互动演进中,农民的实践往往在先,随后,政府部门则对农民和其他社会主体的行为实践作出回应。最终,政府在宏观政策层面上将可能对他们的行为进行规范。
Since the reform and opening policy was implemented 30 years before,great changes have taken place in rural China and the concerning problems have been increasingly paid attention to.Among them,issues like "three—dimensional rural problems" - the "issue of farmers' income",the "issue of rural development",and the "issue of agricultural development" have become the central issue in the policy study and academic research.Since the issues of "sannong wenti" are closely connected with the farmers,the author of the thesis argues that the key to solve these problems is to increase the farmers' income.Such increase must be considered as the starting point and the objective in rural management of the government.Furthermore,farmers' income is much related to the source of income,and empirical data show that most farmers' income is from labor.Therefore,labor employment has become the key factor in increasing farmers' income.Consequently,a proper perspective should be taken to explore the farmers' behavior in labor employment during the studies.
Based on the arguments mentioned above,the analyses of peasant household,and the source and increase of their income stream,this thesis,focusing on the employment decision-making and labor force flow,makes an analysis not only of the behavior evolution since the reform about farmer employment and rural labor flow,but also the evolutionary law and characteristics about the corresponding policy and system.Applying both static and dynamic analytic routes and using the materials of rural fieldwork and the household tracking survey in Hubei,the author does a thorough research on the influential factors of peasant household employment decision-making and the labor force flow and carries out a meticulous analysis of the above behaviors under policy restriction.The research also tries to offer basic information to the in-depth understanding of the farmer employment and government behavior and its policies.From the theoretical level,the thesis gives answers to the following questions:①why could such rational farmer employment behavior take shape since the reform?②what is the decision-making mechanism of obtaining off-farm employment?③how do policy system and other economic social factors influence farmer's employment and flow behavior? And so on.The thesis also provides substantial solutions to farmer employment behavior since the reform,train of thought on policies,and how the future policy can perfect and broaden the peasants' employment means,promote their employment level,and continuously increase their income.
The thesis is made up of 6 chapters.According to the description of the research theory and the foundation of the realistic background,Chapter 1 first puts forward the core problem:the impact factor of peasant household employment decision-making and labor flow behavior,and the policy restriction to the decision-making.Then a literature review is made and the train of thought,methods, and substantial data of the research are introduced.Chapter 2 brings up the theoretical analysis framework.First,it defines four pairs of important concepts,that is,peasant household and household family,employment decision-making and employment choosing,labor flow and labor movement, policy restriction and stipulation restriction.Next,this chapter raises the research framework---the Chicago Theory Analysis Frame,which my research is based on this frame but not rigidly adhere to. After that,the research is carded out by using both static and dynamic routes.Finally,the basic hypothesis of the full essay is put forward.Based on the tracking survey in Hubei,Chapter 3 focuses on the Chinese peasant household employment decision-making and its impact factor.Chapter 4 makes a study on labor flow behavior and its impact factor.Chapter 5 makes a detailed analysis on the household employment decision-making and labor flow which both are under the particular policy restriction.At last,Chapter 6 makes a conclusion of the research and provides suggestions on policies.
This thesis uses a huge amount of peasant household investigation data to make a detailed analysis of the household family employment decision-making and the labor flow behavior,as well as the functional mechanism from policies.The innovations of this thesis are as follows:
(1)The innovation of the study angle:The thesis carries out the analysis of household employment decision-making and the labor flow behavior on the peasant household family level. Adopting the behavior analysis frame of family overall efficiency maximization,the thesis studies the household family internal mechanism of labor employment decision-making.Hence,it carries out a research on interacted society employment decision-making behavior.With a basic angle of household family level,this research which deals with the rural labor employment and flow is thus quite different from the literature which focuses more on the macroscopic angle or the labor force individual angle.
(2)The innovation of research method:In the progress of investigation on the spot,the author uses the profound-interview method,individual case investigation method and core problem discussion method.What's more,the author makes a clear investigation of all kinds of household employment decision behavior in the detailed analysis.While doing the individual case analysis,the author uses cross section data,inquisitional peasant household panel data and time sequence data to carry out a static and dynamic calculating analysis on the household employment decision-making and the labor flow behavior.In order to make a special calculating analysis of household dynamic employment decision-making and its various influential factors,the Dynamic Panel Data Multinomial Discrete Choice Model is used,which is also the first time that it is used in launching a thorough investigation of such behavior among domestic scholars.As for the analysis of the policy restriction, comprehensive inductive method is applied to abstract and carry out a classification research on the policies which influence household employment decision-making and labor flow behavior.Generally speaking,this evidential study makes a breakthrough on the present situation of concentrating on static analytical method in this field.
(3)The thesis uses the analytical basic frame of family economic behavior.It is the first time that a research has carded out such detailed analysis on peasant household family employment decision-making with different economic conditions and the game theory mechanism of their participation in the village social interaction.It argues that peasant households under different economic conditions differ in external behavior characteristics according to their rational employment decision-making behavior.Based on different economic conditions and feature of acting,the basic types of peasant household are divided as:the survival-pressure type,the benefit-pursuing type,and the economy-developed type.In addition,the thesis also holds that peasant household family not only takes part in the internal division of labor and work,but also participates in the interact game of the village community as a whole.As the improvement of peasant household's relative economy condition in the village,the families' benefit of the interactive game with neighbors(including material and non-material comprehensive benefit)has increased.And as the lower-effect family transforms into a higher one,the mechanism also converts from "adjustment" and "pursuit" into "inertia".
(4)Using the dynamic econometrics' analytical method,the thesis raises a new understanding about the characteristic of the Chinese farmer employment behavior.The author believes that peasant household economic organization,which is surrounded by the changing macro-environment,is a complete economic system.My research shows that the employment decision-making system of household family turns out to be stable and "state dependence".Nowadays, a trend of "two-end rigid village employment" has taken shape in Chinese rural areas.To be more specific,at one end of the rural employment mind-set,there is a kind of peasant household that has strong native complex and lives on agricultural production.So far,in spite of the decreasing number, those household families still stably maintain their employment behavior.At the other end,peasant households who have experience in non-agricultural business or off-farm employment,show a stronger and stronger trend of "non-agricultural" employment trend.With a majority of the households at the two ends and a comparative minority in the middle state,a rural labor "rigid" employment characteristic is formed.
(5)It is the first time that a thesis has used the social multiple effect to do the research on the transmission mechanism of policy effects on peasant household employment decision-making.Having studied the effect mechanism of the peasant household employment decision-making under particular policy restrains,the author reveals the effect degree of marginal variety on the policy of one peasant household employment decision-making and labor flow behavior. Based on the research of the rural social interactive behavior,a new explaining theory about how policy factors penetrate into the groups of rural communities is carried out by this thesis.The research shows that,because of the impact of social interactive behavior,when the effect of certain peasant household community's group behavior on the employment decision-making grows stronger,the communication between the households will become closer.Consequently,the group's social multiple effect becomes greater,the interactive penetrating strength of the policy's effect on the whole community also becomes stronger and the policy effect more widely known.
(6)For the first time a thesis with a dynamic change angle,analyses the interactive relationship between the development law of agricultural labor employment policy,and its change of peasant household employment decision-making behavior since the reform.The research holds a view that since reform,the change of rural labor employment policy manifests three regular patterns.First,although the government's concrete policy measures,which aim at the social economic development and employment situation,has been changing in every period,the policy anyhow at every stage has followed the former one's direction in a certain aspect.Second,as for the trend of overall policy changes,with the passage of time and deepening of the reform,the government shows a more active attitude towards the farmer's choices about "non-agricultural employment inside rural areas" and "rural labor flow to cities".Third,the political system innovation,which has been carrying out since reform,is a process from bottom to top with strong driving force first coming from the farmers.The policy at every stage has made reaction to the farmers' employment behavior, although the reaction has lagged behind a little.During the interactive development of government's policy and farmer's employment behavior,farmers' practice always comes first,and follows the reaction of the government according to their practice as well as other social subjects.Finally,the government may restrict their activities on a macro-policy level.
基于上述认识,本文以农户家庭的分析为基础,从中国农户收入流增长及其来源的分析出发,围绕农户就业决策和劳动力流动这一重要现象,分析了改革以来中国农民就业行为的演变,农村劳动力流动行为的演变以及相应政策制度的演变规律及其特征。在此基础上,采用静态和动态两条分析路径,运用笔者在农村的实地调查资料和湖北农户跟踪调查资料重点研究了农户就业决策和劳动力流动的影响因素,并细致地分析了政策约束下农户就业决策和劳动力流动的行为。本文的研究试图为进一步全面而深入地认识农民就业和政府行为及其政策提供基础信息。本文从理论层面回答了改革以来农民就业为什么会形成如此的理性行为,农户家庭的内生和外生就业决策机制是什么,政策制度以及其他经济社会因素如何影响着农民的就业和流动行为等问题。从实证层面回答了改革以来农民的就业行为如何,政策思路如何,未来的政策将需要如何完善以拓宽农民就业渠道,提升农民就业层次,持续提高农民收入等问题。
全文共分为6章。第1章在描述本项研究的理论和现实背景的基础上,提出本文研究的核心问题是:农户就业决策和劳动力流动行为的影响因素,以及政策对就业决策行为的约束。此后,对本领域研究的文献作出简要综述,并介绍了全文研究的思路、方法和实证数据。第2章提出本文的理论分析框架。这一章首先对四组重要的概念进行界定,即:农户与农户家庭、就业决策与就业选择、劳动力流动与迁移、政策约束与制度约束。然后,提出本文的分析框架:芝加哥理论分析框架,本文的研究基于此框架却又不拘泥于这一基本框架。接下来则提出从静态和动态两条路径展开本文的研究。最后,提出了本文的基本假设。第3章重点以湖北农户调查资料为例分析了中国农户就业决策行为及其影响因素。第4章研究了中国农户劳动力流动行为及其影响因素。第5章将农户的就业决策和劳动力流动放在特定的政策约束下进行了详细地分析。第6章是本文的总体研究结论和政策建议。
本文运用大量的农户调查资料对农户家庭的就业决策和劳动力流动行为以及政策对其影响的作用机制进行了细致地分析,论文的创新主要体现在如下几个方面:
(1)研究视角的创新:本文的研究是基于农户家庭层面展开对农民就业决策和劳动力流动行为的分析。论文采用家庭整体效用最大化的行为分析框架研究了农户家庭内部劳动就业决策的内生机制。在此基础上,对农户之间社会互动的就业决策行为进行了探讨。全文以农户家庭层面为基础视角对农村劳动力就业和流动行为作出的研究与以往更多从宏观角度或者劳动力个体角度进行的研究文献具有极大的不同。
(2)研究方法的创新:在实地调查的过程中笔者运用深度访谈法、个案调查法和焦点问题讨论法,并在具体的分析中更为清晰地考察了各种类型农户的劳动就业决策行为。在个案分析的同时本文利用横截面数据、跟踪调查的农户面板数据和时间序列数据对农户的就业决策和劳动力流动行为进行静态和动态的计量分析。尤其是采用了动态面板多元离散选择模型对农户的动态就业决策行为选择及其各种因素的影响进行了计量分析,这是国内首次运用此方法展开对农户动态就业决策行为的深入探索。在对政策约束的分析中,则采用了综合归纳的方法将影响农户就业决策行为和劳动力流动的政策进行了适当抽象和归纳,并分类进行了研究。从研究方法的总体上看,由上述方法综合形成的实证研究突破了以往在农村劳动力就业和流动行为研究领域集中于运用静态的实证分析方法的现状。
(3)本文采用家庭经济行为分析的基本框架,首次对不同经济禀赋条件下的农户家庭劳动就业决策行为以及农户参与村庄互动博弈的机制进行了细致分析。研究认为:处于不同经济状况下的农户,其理性就业决策行为所表现出的外化行为特征不尽相同。针对不同的经济禀赋条件和行为特征,本文将农户的基本类型分为:生存压力型农户、效益追求型农户和经济发展型农户。此外,本文认为,农户家庭不仅仅涉及内部成员的分工分业,农户作为整体也参与了村庄社区的互动博弈。随着农户在村庄中相对经济地位的提高,家庭在村庄中与邻居的互动博弈收益(包括物质和非物质的综合收益)有所提高,家庭在从整体效用较低的情形逐步转换到效用较高的情形的过程中,其转换的机制也由“调整”和“追赶”变为“惯性”机制。
(4)本文运用动态计量分析方法对中国农民就业行为特征产生了新的认识。本文认为,处于外部宏观环境变动中的农户经济组织是一个完整的经济系统。研究表明,农户家庭就业决策系统呈现出稳定的“状态依赖”特征。当前,中国农村已经形成了“农村就业两端刚性”的趋势。在农村就业行为取向的一端是具有很强乡土情结的以农业为生的农户家庭。这一类农户家庭在当前农村中的数量在减少,但他们确实比较稳定地存在着。他们的就业行为仍然保持往日的状态,行为变化非常小。在另一端,具有非农经营或者外出就业行为的农户在未来的就业行为选择中具有越来越强烈的“非农化”倾向。处于上述两端就业状态的农户非常多,处于中间状态的农户则相对少,因而形成了农村劳动力就业的“刚性”特征。
(5)首次开创性地运用社会乘数效应研究政策制度对农户就业决策行为影响的传导机制。通过对特定政策约束下农户就业决策行为影响机制的研究,揭示出政策的边际变化对单个农户就业决策和劳动力流动行为的影响程度。本文通过对农村中社会互动行为的研究提出了新的解释政策因素如何在农村社区群体中进行渗透的理论。本文的研究表明:由于社会互动行为的影响,随着某个农户所处社区群体行为对其就业决策行为的影响越大,农户之间的联系越紧密,整个群体的社会乘数效应也越大,进而使得政策变动效应在整个社区成员之间相互渗透的力度越大,政策影响也就更为广泛。
(6)首次从动态变迁的角度分析改革以来涉农的劳动就业政策的演变规律及其与农户就业决策行为变迁之间的互动演进关系。本文的研究表明了改革开放以来涉农的劳动就业政策制度的变迁呈现出三大规律:第一,尽管各个时期政府的具体政策措施针对当时的社会经济发展状况和就业形势在不断地变化之中,然而每一个阶段的政策都至少在某一个方面沿袭了前一阶段的政策导向。第二,如果从总体的政策变迁趋势上看,随着时间的推移和改革的深入,政府在对待农民“在农村内部非农就业”以及“到城市流动就业”两方面就业渠道的态度上较之以往都显得更为积极。第三,改革以来不断进行着的政策制度创新是一种自下而上的过程,创新的强大动力首先来自农民。每一阶段的政策相应于农民的就业行为均做出了反应,但这种反应相对于农民就业行为来讲有所滞后。在政府政策与农民就业行为不断的互动演进中,农民的实践往往在先,随后,政府部门则对农民和其他社会主体的行为实践作出回应。最终,政府在宏观政策层面上将可能对他们的行为进行规范。
Since the reform and opening policy was implemented 30 years before,great changes have taken place in rural China and the concerning problems have been increasingly paid attention to.Among them,issues like "three—dimensional rural problems" - the "issue of farmers' income",the "issue of rural development",and the "issue of agricultural development" have become the central issue in the policy study and academic research.Since the issues of "sannong wenti" are closely connected with the farmers,the author of the thesis argues that the key to solve these problems is to increase the farmers' income.Such increase must be considered as the starting point and the objective in rural management of the government.Furthermore,farmers' income is much related to the source of income,and empirical data show that most farmers' income is from labor.Therefore,labor employment has become the key factor in increasing farmers' income.Consequently,a proper perspective should be taken to explore the farmers' behavior in labor employment during the studies.
Based on the arguments mentioned above,the analyses of peasant household,and the source and increase of their income stream,this thesis,focusing on the employment decision-making and labor force flow,makes an analysis not only of the behavior evolution since the reform about farmer employment and rural labor flow,but also the evolutionary law and characteristics about the corresponding policy and system.Applying both static and dynamic analytic routes and using the materials of rural fieldwork and the household tracking survey in Hubei,the author does a thorough research on the influential factors of peasant household employment decision-making and the labor force flow and carries out a meticulous analysis of the above behaviors under policy restriction.The research also tries to offer basic information to the in-depth understanding of the farmer employment and government behavior and its policies.From the theoretical level,the thesis gives answers to the following questions:①why could such rational farmer employment behavior take shape since the reform?②what is the decision-making mechanism of obtaining off-farm employment?③how do policy system and other economic social factors influence farmer's employment and flow behavior? And so on.The thesis also provides substantial solutions to farmer employment behavior since the reform,train of thought on policies,and how the future policy can perfect and broaden the peasants' employment means,promote their employment level,and continuously increase their income.
The thesis is made up of 6 chapters.According to the description of the research theory and the foundation of the realistic background,Chapter 1 first puts forward the core problem:the impact factor of peasant household employment decision-making and labor flow behavior,and the policy restriction to the decision-making.Then a literature review is made and the train of thought,methods, and substantial data of the research are introduced.Chapter 2 brings up the theoretical analysis framework.First,it defines four pairs of important concepts,that is,peasant household and household family,employment decision-making and employment choosing,labor flow and labor movement, policy restriction and stipulation restriction.Next,this chapter raises the research framework---the Chicago Theory Analysis Frame,which my research is based on this frame but not rigidly adhere to. After that,the research is carded out by using both static and dynamic routes.Finally,the basic hypothesis of the full essay is put forward.Based on the tracking survey in Hubei,Chapter 3 focuses on the Chinese peasant household employment decision-making and its impact factor.Chapter 4 makes a study on labor flow behavior and its impact factor.Chapter 5 makes a detailed analysis on the household employment decision-making and labor flow which both are under the particular policy restriction.At last,Chapter 6 makes a conclusion of the research and provides suggestions on policies.
This thesis uses a huge amount of peasant household investigation data to make a detailed analysis of the household family employment decision-making and the labor flow behavior,as well as the functional mechanism from policies.The innovations of this thesis are as follows:
(1)The innovation of the study angle:The thesis carries out the analysis of household employment decision-making and the labor flow behavior on the peasant household family level. Adopting the behavior analysis frame of family overall efficiency maximization,the thesis studies the household family internal mechanism of labor employment decision-making.Hence,it carries out a research on interacted society employment decision-making behavior.With a basic angle of household family level,this research which deals with the rural labor employment and flow is thus quite different from the literature which focuses more on the macroscopic angle or the labor force individual angle.
(2)The innovation of research method:In the progress of investigation on the spot,the author uses the profound-interview method,individual case investigation method and core problem discussion method.What's more,the author makes a clear investigation of all kinds of household employment decision behavior in the detailed analysis.While doing the individual case analysis,the author uses cross section data,inquisitional peasant household panel data and time sequence data to carry out a static and dynamic calculating analysis on the household employment decision-making and the labor flow behavior.In order to make a special calculating analysis of household dynamic employment decision-making and its various influential factors,the Dynamic Panel Data Multinomial Discrete Choice Model is used,which is also the first time that it is used in launching a thorough investigation of such behavior among domestic scholars.As for the analysis of the policy restriction, comprehensive inductive method is applied to abstract and carry out a classification research on the policies which influence household employment decision-making and labor flow behavior.Generally speaking,this evidential study makes a breakthrough on the present situation of concentrating on static analytical method in this field.
(3)The thesis uses the analytical basic frame of family economic behavior.It is the first time that a research has carded out such detailed analysis on peasant household family employment decision-making with different economic conditions and the game theory mechanism of their participation in the village social interaction.It argues that peasant households under different economic conditions differ in external behavior characteristics according to their rational employment decision-making behavior.Based on different economic conditions and feature of acting,the basic types of peasant household are divided as:the survival-pressure type,the benefit-pursuing type,and the economy-developed type.In addition,the thesis also holds that peasant household family not only takes part in the internal division of labor and work,but also participates in the interact game of the village community as a whole.As the improvement of peasant household's relative economy condition in the village,the families' benefit of the interactive game with neighbors(including material and non-material comprehensive benefit)has increased.And as the lower-effect family transforms into a higher one,the mechanism also converts from "adjustment" and "pursuit" into "inertia".
(4)Using the dynamic econometrics' analytical method,the thesis raises a new understanding about the characteristic of the Chinese farmer employment behavior.The author believes that peasant household economic organization,which is surrounded by the changing macro-environment,is a complete economic system.My research shows that the employment decision-making system of household family turns out to be stable and "state dependence".Nowadays, a trend of "two-end rigid village employment" has taken shape in Chinese rural areas.To be more specific,at one end of the rural employment mind-set,there is a kind of peasant household that has strong native complex and lives on agricultural production.So far,in spite of the decreasing number, those household families still stably maintain their employment behavior.At the other end,peasant households who have experience in non-agricultural business or off-farm employment,show a stronger and stronger trend of "non-agricultural" employment trend.With a majority of the households at the two ends and a comparative minority in the middle state,a rural labor "rigid" employment characteristic is formed.
(5)It is the first time that a thesis has used the social multiple effect to do the research on the transmission mechanism of policy effects on peasant household employment decision-making.Having studied the effect mechanism of the peasant household employment decision-making under particular policy restrains,the author reveals the effect degree of marginal variety on the policy of one peasant household employment decision-making and labor flow behavior. Based on the research of the rural social interactive behavior,a new explaining theory about how policy factors penetrate into the groups of rural communities is carried out by this thesis.The research shows that,because of the impact of social interactive behavior,when the effect of certain peasant household community's group behavior on the employment decision-making grows stronger,the communication between the households will become closer.Consequently,the group's social multiple effect becomes greater,the interactive penetrating strength of the policy's effect on the whole community also becomes stronger and the policy effect more widely known.
(6)For the first time a thesis with a dynamic change angle,analyses the interactive relationship between the development law of agricultural labor employment policy,and its change of peasant household employment decision-making behavior since the reform.The research holds a view that since reform,the change of rural labor employment policy manifests three regular patterns.First,although the government's concrete policy measures,which aim at the social economic development and employment situation,has been changing in every period,the policy anyhow at every stage has followed the former one's direction in a certain aspect.Second,as for the trend of overall policy changes,with the passage of time and deepening of the reform,the government shows a more active attitude towards the farmer's choices about "non-agricultural employment inside rural areas" and "rural labor flow to cities".Third,the political system innovation,which has been carrying out since reform,is a process from bottom to top with strong driving force first coming from the farmers.The policy at every stage has made reaction to the farmers' employment behavior, although the reaction has lagged behind a little.During the interactive development of government's policy and farmer's employment behavior,farmers' practice always comes first,and follows the reaction of the government according to their practice as well as other social subjects.Finally,the government may restrict their activities on a macro-policy level.
引文
[1]国家统计局:《中国统计年鉴-2007》,中国统计出版社,2007年,第368页,表10-21。
[2]对农户收入增长状况的详细研究可参见笔者的有关论述:王春超,2004:《增加农民收入的关键因素及主要对策》,《经济科学》第1期。
[3]本文所说的收入流是从理论上看,将农户家庭的收入看作一个流量,这种流量形成于各种不同的收入流来源。如果从实际中看,其含义就可以理解为动态增长中的农户收入。因此,在本文中将农户的收入流与农户收入没有做严格区分。
[1]温铁军:《三农问题的本土化认识》,载《三农中国》2006年第1辑,湖北人民出版社,2006年,第8页。
[1]本文研究的主要内容是中国农户的就业决策和劳动力流动行为及其政策约束。本项研究采用的实地调查资料以湖北农户调查数据为基础。根据笔者的长期观察和对比,改革开放以来湖北农户的基本情况在相当大程度上反映了中国农户的整体情况,湖北农户就业决策行为的变化状况也在很大程度上代表了中国农户特别是中西部农户就业行为的整体变化,具有较好的代表性。因此,本文的实证研究以湖北农户调查数据为基础,但又不拘泥于湖北农户本身,研究的主要内容则是政策约束下中国农户的基本情况。
[2]梅德平:《中国农村微观经济组织变迁研究(1949-1985)》,中国社会科学出版社,2004年,第324页。
[3]马克思:《资本论》第三卷,人民出版社,1975年,第909页。
[4]在农户经济研究方面更为细致地可以分为五大流派,即恰亚诺夫主义的农民组织生产学派、舒尔茨为代表的理性主义农民学派、马克思为代表的剥削小农学派、以黄宗智为代表的历史学派和以徐勇为代表的社会化小农学派。另见黄宗智:《华北的小农经济与社会变迁》,中华书局,2000年。事实上,农户研究的不同学派代表着不同的研究出发点和基本的假设前提。
[1]西奥多·W·舒尔茨:《改造传统农业》,商务印书馆,1999年,第29页。
[2]Popkin,S.,The Rational Peasant:the Political Economy of Rural Society in Vietnam,Berkeley:University of California Press,1979.
[3]这里“有条件的均衡”是指农户消费的边际效用等于闲暇的边际效用。
[4]Chayanov,A.V,The Theory of Peasant Economy,Madison:University of Wisconsin Press,1986.
[5]Scott,J.,Moral Economy of the Peasant,Yale University Press,1976.
[6](美)黄宗智:《华北的小农经济与社会变迁》,中华书局,2000年,第4页。
[7]徐勇、邓大才:《“再识农户”与社会化小农的建构》,载《中国农村研究》(2004年卷),中国社会科学出版社,2006年,第149页。
[8]在传统经济学分析中,收入是一个流量的概念。舒尔茨在《改造传统农业》中将其定义为,它由每单位时间既定数量的收入流所组成。
[1]曹阳:《外部环境约束·农户“经济人”理性行为决策》,载《中国农村研究》(2002年卷),中国社会科学出版社,2003年,第277页。
[2]温锐,游海华,《劳动力流动与农村社会经济变迁》,中国社会科学出版社,2001年,第23页。
[1]国家统计局人口和社会科技统计司:《中国人口统计年鉴》(2004),中国统计出版社,2004年,第312页。
[2]李成贵:《中国农业政策--理论框架与应用分析》,社会科学文献出版社,1999年,第43页。
[3]程连升:《中国反失业政策研究(1950-2000)》,社会科学文献出版社,2002年,第184页。
[1]蔡昉等(2003)从八个方面对农村劳动力流动问题的研究做了综述。具有代表性的中文文献也可参见蔡昉、白南生主编:《中国转轨时期劳动力流动》,社会科学文献出版社,2006年。
[1]约翰·伊特韦尔、默里·米尔盖特和彼得·纽曼:《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典(第二卷)》,中译本,经济科学出版社,1996年,第301页。
[2]广东、广西、湖南辞源修订组、商务印书馆修订组:《辞源》(修订本),商务印书馆,1918年,第838页。
[3]费孝通:《江村农民生活及其变迁》,敦煌文艺出版社,1997年(2000年重印版),第24页。
[4]费孝通:《江村农民生活及其变迁》,敦煌文艺出版社,1997年(2000年重印版),第63页。费孝通(1997)在此书第75页的注释中也提出:从法律观点来看,一个人虽然无亲属关系,但永久地住在此群体内者,亦应视为“家”的一员。但此规定并未被村民所接收。甚至那些在“家”中居住了很长时间的人还是被认为与“家”的成员是有区别的。
[1]韩喜平:《中国农户经营系统分析》,中国经济出版社,2004年,第2页。
[2]W·R·葛迪斯:《共产党领导下的中国农民生活》,载《江村农民生活及其变迁》,敦煌文艺出版社,1997年(2000年重印版),第318页。
[3]根据“中国农村微观经济组织形式研究”课题组于2002年初的寒假期间在全国20个省(市、自治区)87个县(市)开展的农村千户调查数据整理所得。调查总户数为:1011户。
[4]曹阳:《外部环境约束·农户“经济人”理性行为决策》,载《中国农村研究》(2002年卷),中国社会科学出版社,2003年,第282页。
[1]Heckman(1981a,b)提出了个体劳动选择行为“状态依赖”的概念。笔者在此处所指的是农户家庭成员因长期外出就业而形成的地域选择的状态集聚。这一现象也正是由于“状态依赖”的选择行为而引发。
[2]为了确定农户就业选择集,我们可以将农村住户的从业类型进行适当抽象,以代表农户面临着的不同的就业选择方案。农村住户的从业类型可以按照收入来源和劳动时间进行分类,分类标准有两种:第一,农户各种收入来源中农业收入和非农业收入占本户总收入的比重。第一产业收入占总收入95%以上的农户为纯农业户;第一产业收入占50%-95%的农户为农业兼业户;第一产业收入占5%-50%的农户为非农兼业户;第一产业收入占5%以下的农户为非农业户。第二,农业劳动时间占农户总劳动时间的比重。农业劳动时间占总劳动时间95%以上为纯农业户;农业劳动时间占50%-95%的农户为农业兼业户;农业劳动时间占5%-50%的农户为非农兼业户;农业劳动时间占5%以下的农户为非农业户。
[3]UNICEF East Asia & Pacific Regional Office.Mobile Population and Vulnerability.Bangkok,1998:3-36.
[4]张为民等:《中国流动人口状况分析》,《经济研究参考》1998年第51期。
[1]数据来源于国务院研究室课题组:《中国农民工调研报告》,中国言实出版社,2006年,第4页。
[2]数据来源于国研网“中国农村劳动力转移”课题组:《中国农村劳动力转移现状、问题与发展》,国务院发展研究中心信息网,2004年。
[3]数据来源于朱信凯、陶怀颖:《农民工直接问卷调查情况分析》,载国务院研究室课题组:《中国农民工调研报告》,中国言实出版社,2006年,第117页。该项调查的有效问卷总数为:810份。
[4]国家统计局农调总队在农村住户抽样调查中将农村转移劳动力定义为:当年在乡以外就业半年以上或在本乡以内从事非农就业活动半年以上的农村劳动力。由婚姻、就学和参军等引起劳动力发生地域性转移不视为农村转移劳动力。(参见国家统计局:《农村住户调查方案》.2003年。)本文中讨论的农村劳动力流动与“转移劳动力”在统计意义上基本相同,但在理论意义上是有差异的。
[5]此定义来源于刘纯彬:《农村劳动力转移与城镇化发展的协调性研究》,载农业部软科学委员会办公室编《农业部软科学课题成果数据库》,内部资料,2006年10月。
[6]国家统计局:《农村住户调查方案》,内部资料,2005年。
[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所:《现代经济辞典》,凤凰出版社和江苏人民出版社,2005年,第551页。
[2]本文所说的农户之间的社会互动(social interaction)是指,不同农户家庭行为状态之间的相互影响,这种影响并不是在市场上通过价格机制形成,而是通过一系列的诸如“社会规范”、“相互攀比”、“羊群效应”、“就业集聚效应”、“模仿”等方面的非正式制度所形成。
[1]Douglass C.North:《交易成本、制度和经济史》,载埃瑞克·G·菲吕博顿、鲁道夫主编:《新制度经济学》,中译本,上海财经大学出版社,1998年,第245页。
[2]以家庭极大化为准则的芝加哥理论框架也称为“新家庭经济学”理论分析框架。这种分析框架的主要代表是加里·S·贝克尔。贝克尔(1993,中译本,第8页)在《人类行为的经济分析》一书中指出:最大化行为、市场均衡和偏好稳定的综合假定及其不折不扣地运用构成了经济分析的核心。“新家庭经济学”的分析框架即是在上述三个核心前提下展开对家庭内成员的生产、消费、生育、婚姻等一系列行为的分析范式。
[1]传统农户经济模型的框架将劳动投入仅仅只分为家庭劳动力投入和雇佣的劳动力投入,因此缺乏对家庭内部成员分工的分析,而传统贝克尔家庭分析框架则又仅仅涉及对家庭内部成员的家务劳动(在贝克尔看来是非市场劳动)和市场劳动的分工。为了分析农户家庭的内部劳动分工以及在农业领域和非农业领域分配劳动力的决策行为,笔者将二者分析的框架进行融合,以构建新的分析农户经济行为的分析框架。有关传统农户经济模型和贝克尔的框架请参见如下文献:(1)Inderjit Singh,Lyn Squire & John Strauss,"The Basic Model:Theory,Empirical Results,and Policy Conclusions" in Inderjit Singh,Lyn Squire & John Strauss edited,Agricultural Household Models:Extensions,Application,and Policy,Baltimore and London,The John Hopkins University Press,1986:17-20.(2)Gary S.Becker,A Treatise on the Family,Harvard University,1991.
[1]参见德怀特·H.珀金斯:《中国的经济政策及其贯彻情况》载(美)R.麦克法奈尔、费正清编:《剑桥中华人民共和国史.下卷,中国革命内部的革命:1966-1982年》,中国社会科学出版社,1992年,第519页。
[2]同上,第528页。
[1]根据国家发展和改革委员会的一项测算:2003年,政策性因素对当年的农民收入增长的贡献率就达到了1个百分点。测算结果来源于杜鹰:《2005年全国农民收入增长预测》,载农业部软科学委员会办公室编《农业部软科学课题成果数据库》,内部资料,2006年10月。
[2]在国家统计局农村社会经济调查司提供的数据中,改革初期所指的“工资性收入”主要包括由农村集体基本核算单位以实物和现金等形式发放给农民的“工资”以及少量农民到非农产业就业的“工资”所得;1990年以来,同样是在国家统计局农村社会经济调查司提供的数据中,“工资性收入”则是指农村住户成员受雇于单位或个人,靠出卖劳动而获得的收入(国家统计局:《中国农村住户调查方案》,内部资料,2002年8月),其中更多的则是农民在非农领域劳动就业所获得的现金工资。因此,改革初期统计的农村居民“工资性收入”与1990年以来直到当前所统计的“工资性收入”在收入来源结构和内含上具有较大的差异。
[1]数据来源于国家统计局:《中国统计年鉴-2007》,中国统计出版社,2007年,第367页。
[1]西方学者针对改革以前中国农村发展战略的评论中说:“就1955-1956年农业生产合作社和1958年农村人民公社在全国范围内的成立而言,唯一的、也是最重要的经济方面的理由是,人们相信,它们的成立就有可能动员千千万万的农村‘剩余'劳动力来修建中国缺乏的灌溉系统、道路之类的基础设施。”(参见(美)R.麦克法奈尔、费正清编:《剑桥中华人民共和国史.下卷,中国革命内部的革命:1966-1982年》,中国社会科学出版社,1992年,第518页。)
[1]1982年,中央一号文件肯定了多种形式的农村承包责任制,真正意义上肯定了“包产到户”;1983年,中央一号文件开始注重农村商品生产的发展,发展农村工商业;1984年,中央一号文件开始注意疏通农村商品的流通渠道,以加强市场发育,推动商品生产流通的进一步繁荣:1985年,中央一号文件进一步强化发展农业生产力,调整农业生产结构;1986年,中央一号文件强调了增加农业和水利投入,理顺工农关系和城乡关系,政府重新回归到重视农业投入和补贴上。关于1982-1986年中央一号文件的详细判断参见杜润生:《杜润生自述:中国农村体制变革重大决策纪实》,人民出版社,2005年,第135-145页。
[1]数据来源于中共中央政策研究室、农业部农村固定观察点办公室编:《全国农村社会经济典型调查数据汇编》,中国农业出版社,2001年,第47页、第71页。
[1]数据来源于韩俊、崔传义、范皑皑:《农村剩余劳动力微观调查》,载蔡昉主编:《中国人口与劳动问题报告NO.8:刘易斯转折点及其政策挑战》,社会科学文献出版社,2007年,第117页。
[2]这里笔者统计的外出劳动力数量的口径比国务院发展研究中心“推进社会主义新农村建设”课题组调查的外出劳动力口径更为宽泛一些,包括了农户在离开村庄不远的乡镇里从事非农领域就业的劳动力以及乡镇以外一切空间范围就业的劳动力,获得的统计结果在数量上也相对多一些。
[1]蔡昉:《劳动力流动的政治经济学》,上海三联书店,2003年,第102页。
[1]萨伊:《政治经济学概论》,商务印书馆,1963年,第326页。
[1]根据中华人民共和国劳动和社会保障部编:《中国劳动和社会保障年鉴-1999》,中国劳动社会保障出版社,2000年,第417页的数据计算所得。
[2]数据来源于国家统计局人口和就业统计司、劳动和社会保障部规划财务司编:《中国劳动统计年鉴-2006》,中国统计出版社,2006年,第472页,表7-2。
[1]数据来源于国家统计局人口和就业统计司、劳动和社会保障部规划财务司编:《中国劳动统计年鉴-2006》,中国统计出版社,2006年,第471页,表7-1。
[2]数据来源于农业部乡镇企业局编:《中国乡镇企业统计资料》,载张毅、张颂颂:《中国乡镇企业简史》,中国农业出版社,2001年,第83页、118页。
[1]数据来源于农业部:《中国农业发展报告-2005》,中国农业出版社,2005年,第151页。
[2]西北地区一些农业专家、学者1989年7月向新华社记者谈到:“盲目发展乡镇企业,给农业发展带来很不利的影响。一是牵扯县乡领导的精力。二是拉走了农业第一线的强壮劳动力。三是转移了农业资金。”他们建议:“要把兴办乡镇企业的温度降下来,要把那些浪费电力和原材料的乡镇企业坚决关一批。”(参见张毅、张颂颂:《中国乡镇企业简史》,中国农业出版社,第121页。)
[3]数据来源于国家统计局:《中国统计年鉴-2007》,中国统计出版社,第130页,表5-3:第449页,表12-31。
[4]数据来源于农业部乡镇企业局提供的资料,载国家统计局编:《中国统计年鉴-2003》,中国统计出版社,第449页,表12-31。
[5]数据来源于国家统计局人口和就业统计司、劳动和社会保障部规划财务司编:《中国劳动统计年鉴-2006》,中国统计出版社,2006年,第472页,表7-2。
[1]具体的调查数据表明:28县、市外出劳动力从事工业(含手工业)的占39.9%,建筑业占41.9%,商业服务业占11.6%,交通运输业占1.5%,农业仅仅占到5.1%(参见“农村剩余劳动力转移与劳动力市场”课题组:《28个县(市)农村劳动力跨区域流动的调查研究》,《中国农村经济》1995年第4期)。
[2]数据来源于国家统计局:《中国统计年鉴-2007》,中国统计出版社,第130页,表5-3。
[3]数据来源于国家统计局湖北调查总队历年农村住户调查资料。
[4]具体的调查数据参见白南生、宋洪远等:《回乡,还是进城?--中国农村外出劳动力回流研究》,中国财政经济出版社,2002年,第57页。
[1]数据来源于韩俊、崔传义、范皑皑:《农村剩余劳动力微观调查》,载蔡昉主编:《中国人口与劳动问题报告NO.8:刘易斯转折点及其政策挑战》,社会科学文献出版社,2007年,第118-119页、第122页。
[2]数据来源于国务院研究室课题组:《中国农民工调研报告》,中国言实出版社,2006年,第3页。
[3]数据来源于赵树凯:《纵横城乡--农民流动的观察与研究》,中国农业出版社,1998年,第248页。
[4]具体的就业政策和制度将在本文的第5章中详细论述。
[1]数据来源于国家统计局编:《中国统计摘要-2006》,中国统计出版社,2006年,第108页。
[2]数据来源于王西玉、崔传义、赵阳、马忠东:《中国二元结构下的农村劳动力流动及其政策选择》,载邓鸿勋、陆百甫主编:《走出二元结构--农民就业创业研究》,中国发展出版社,2004年,第341页。
[3]数据来源于湖北省农村固定观察点办公室调查资料。
[1]数据来源于中共中央政策研究室农村组:《关于农村劳动力跨区域流动问题的初步研究》,《中国农村经济》1994年第3期。
[2]数据来源于农业部农村固定观察点办公室在全国29个省、市、区的318个村庄固定观察点的25600个农户样本的基础上再次抽样得到7677户农户调查的结果,载张晓辉、赵长保、陈良彪:《1994:农村劳动力跨区域流动的实证描述》,《战略与管理》1995年第6期。
[3]数据来源于中华人民共和国农业部:《中国农业发展报告-1996》,中国农业出版社,1996年,第204页;中华人民共和国农业部:《中国农业发展报告-2000》,中国农业出版社,2000年,第133页。
[1]数据来源于中华人民共和国农业部:《中国农业发展报告-2001》,中国农业出版社,第135页。
[2]数据来源于中华人民共和国农业部:《中国农业发展报告-2007》,中国农业出版社,第173页。
[1]这里根据劳动力向外流动就业的半径从小到大依次划分为四类:出乡(县内)就业、出县(省内)就业、出省(国内)就业、境外就业。
[2]数据来源于中华人民共和国农业部:《中国农业发展报告-2001》,中国农业出版社,第135页;中华人民共和国农业部:《中国农业发展报告-2006》,中国农业出版社,第159页。
[1]后文将会对外出劳动力互动影响的机制进行详细分析,在此不必赘述。
[2]根据国家统计局湖北调查总队2006年对湖北3300户农村住户抽样调查数据整理得到:2006年,3300个样本农户中外出就业劳动力为3237人,而当年返回的劳动力仅为105人,二者相差3132人。
[1]2003年的数据来源于农业部农村固定观察点办公室,2006年的数据来源于中华人民共和国农业部:《中国农业发展报告-2007》,中国农业出版社,2007年,第172页。
[2]这里的Gini系数根据历年湖北省农村社会经济抽样调查结果测算而得。
[1]Carrington.W.J,Detragiache.& E,Vishwanath.T,"Migration with Endogenous Moving Costs",The American Economic Review,Vol.86.(4),1996:909-930.
[2]Carrington,"Sectoral Shifts" and "Worker and Job Turnover" in Business Cycle and Depressions:An Encyclopedia,Edited by David Glasner.New York:Garland,1997.
[3]Esfahani&Djavad Salehi-Isfahani,"Effort Observability and Worker Productivity:Towards an Explanation of Economic Dualism",The Economic Journal,September,1989:818-836.
[1]Rosen,Sherwin,"The Theory of Equalizing Differences",in Ashenfelter and Layard,Handbook of Labor Economics,Vol.1,Elsevier Science Publishers BV,1986:641-692.
[2]李强:《影响中国城乡流动人口的推力与拉力因素分析》,《中国社会科学》2003年第1期。
[3]这里的计量结果似乎表明:城乡收入差异反而对农户外出就业成本的增加具有正向影响。当然,在显著性程度不高的条件下表现出来的影响方向并不具有很强的实际意义。
[4]蔡昉、都阳:《迁移的双重动因及其政策含义》,中国网(http://www.china.org.cn),2003年。
[5]白南生、宋洪远等:《回乡,还是进城?》,中国财政经济出版社,2002年。
[1]数据来源于张毅、张颂颂:《中国乡镇企业简史》,中国农业出版社,2001年,第250页。
[1]具体政策参见中共中央书记处农村政策研究室资料室编:《十一届三中全会以来农村政策文件选集》,中共中央党校出版社,1985年,第230页。
[2]数据来源于张毅、张颂颂:《中国乡镇企业简史》,中国农业出版社,2001年,第250页。
[1]数据来源于张毅、张颂颂:《中国乡镇企业简史》,中国农业出版社,2001年,第250页;中国乡镇企业年鉴编辑委员会编:《中国乡镇企业年鉴(1992)》,农业出版社,1992年,第3页。
[1]数据来源于农业部产业政策与法规司编:《农村政策法规调查与研究(2003)》,中国农业出版社,2004年,第154页。
[2]数据来源于中国社会科学院经济文化研究中心《城乡经济关系》研究组:《城乡之间的劳动力流动》,载中国社会科学院经济文化研究中心编《调查研究通讯》NO.98-13,1998年11月8日。
[3]数据来源于农业部产业政策与法规司编:《农村政策法规调查与研究(2003)》,中国农业出版社,2004年,第189页、190页。
[1]前面已经详细论述了农户就业决策行为的“状态依赖”特征,具体内容请参见第3章。
[1]唐平(2007)认为,当前“各项惠农政策效果显现,是农村居民增收的重要因素。”参见唐平:《农村居民收入与生活》,载中国社会科学院农村发展研究所、国家统计局农村社会经济调查司著《2006-2007年:中国农村经济形势分析与预测》,社会科学文献出版社,2007年,第128页。
(英)肯·宾默尔,2003:《博弈论与社会契约(第1卷):公平博弈》,中译本,王小卫等译,上海财经大学出版社。
(爱尔兰)托马斯·A·博伊兰、帕斯卡尔·F·奥戈尔曼,2002:《经济学方法论新论》,中译本,夏业良译,经济科学出版社。
(奥)F.A.哈耶克,1989:《个人主义与经济秩序》,中译本,贾湛等译,北京经济学院出版社。
(美)黄宗智,2000:《华北的小农经济与社会变迁》,中华书局。
(美)黄宗智,2000:《长江三角洲小农家庭与乡村发展》,中华书局。
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Weibull,J.(1995),Evolutionary Game Theory,Cambridge,the MIT Press.
Williamson,J.(1988),"Migration and Urbanization",in Hollis Chenery and T.N.Srinivasan,eds.,Handbook of Development Economics(Elsevier Science Publishers,New York):426-46.
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Woolley,Frances(1993),"A Cournot-nash Model of Family Decision Making,Mimeo",Department of Economics Ottawa Canada:Carleton University.
Zhao,Yaohui(1999a),"Labor Migration and Earnings Differences:The Case of Rural China",Economic Development and Cultural Change 47(4):767-782,July.
Zhao,Yaohui(1999b),"Leaving the Countryside:Rural-to-Urban Migration Decision in China",American Economic Review 89(2):281-286,May.
Zhao,Yaohui(2001),"The Role of Migrants Networks in Labor Migration:The Case of China",Working Paper,E2001012,China Centre for Economic Research,Peking University.
Zhu,Nong(2002),"The Impact of Income Gaps on Migration Decisions in China",China Economic Review 13:213-230.
[2]对农户收入增长状况的详细研究可参见笔者的有关论述:王春超,2004:《增加农民收入的关键因素及主要对策》,《经济科学》第1期。
[3]本文所说的收入流是从理论上看,将农户家庭的收入看作一个流量,这种流量形成于各种不同的收入流来源。如果从实际中看,其含义就可以理解为动态增长中的农户收入。因此,在本文中将农户的收入流与农户收入没有做严格区分。
[1]温铁军:《三农问题的本土化认识》,载《三农中国》2006年第1辑,湖北人民出版社,2006年,第8页。
[1]本文研究的主要内容是中国农户的就业决策和劳动力流动行为及其政策约束。本项研究采用的实地调查资料以湖北农户调查数据为基础。根据笔者的长期观察和对比,改革开放以来湖北农户的基本情况在相当大程度上反映了中国农户的整体情况,湖北农户就业决策行为的变化状况也在很大程度上代表了中国农户特别是中西部农户就业行为的整体变化,具有较好的代表性。因此,本文的实证研究以湖北农户调查数据为基础,但又不拘泥于湖北农户本身,研究的主要内容则是政策约束下中国农户的基本情况。
[2]梅德平:《中国农村微观经济组织变迁研究(1949-1985)》,中国社会科学出版社,2004年,第324页。
[3]马克思:《资本论》第三卷,人民出版社,1975年,第909页。
[4]在农户经济研究方面更为细致地可以分为五大流派,即恰亚诺夫主义的农民组织生产学派、舒尔茨为代表的理性主义农民学派、马克思为代表的剥削小农学派、以黄宗智为代表的历史学派和以徐勇为代表的社会化小农学派。另见黄宗智:《华北的小农经济与社会变迁》,中华书局,2000年。事实上,农户研究的不同学派代表着不同的研究出发点和基本的假设前提。
[1]西奥多·W·舒尔茨:《改造传统农业》,商务印书馆,1999年,第29页。
[2]Popkin,S.,The Rational Peasant:the Political Economy of Rural Society in Vietnam,Berkeley:University of California Press,1979.
[3]这里“有条件的均衡”是指农户消费的边际效用等于闲暇的边际效用。
[4]Chayanov,A.V,The Theory of Peasant Economy,Madison:University of Wisconsin Press,1986.
[5]Scott,J.,Moral Economy of the Peasant,Yale University Press,1976.
[6](美)黄宗智:《华北的小农经济与社会变迁》,中华书局,2000年,第4页。
[7]徐勇、邓大才:《“再识农户”与社会化小农的建构》,载《中国农村研究》(2004年卷),中国社会科学出版社,2006年,第149页。
[8]在传统经济学分析中,收入是一个流量的概念。舒尔茨在《改造传统农业》中将其定义为,它由每单位时间既定数量的收入流所组成。
[1]曹阳:《外部环境约束·农户“经济人”理性行为决策》,载《中国农村研究》(2002年卷),中国社会科学出版社,2003年,第277页。
[2]温锐,游海华,《劳动力流动与农村社会经济变迁》,中国社会科学出版社,2001年,第23页。
[1]国家统计局人口和社会科技统计司:《中国人口统计年鉴》(2004),中国统计出版社,2004年,第312页。
[2]李成贵:《中国农业政策--理论框架与应用分析》,社会科学文献出版社,1999年,第43页。
[3]程连升:《中国反失业政策研究(1950-2000)》,社会科学文献出版社,2002年,第184页。
[1]蔡昉等(2003)从八个方面对农村劳动力流动问题的研究做了综述。具有代表性的中文文献也可参见蔡昉、白南生主编:《中国转轨时期劳动力流动》,社会科学文献出版社,2006年。
[1]约翰·伊特韦尔、默里·米尔盖特和彼得·纽曼:《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典(第二卷)》,中译本,经济科学出版社,1996年,第301页。
[2]广东、广西、湖南辞源修订组、商务印书馆修订组:《辞源》(修订本),商务印书馆,1918年,第838页。
[3]费孝通:《江村农民生活及其变迁》,敦煌文艺出版社,1997年(2000年重印版),第24页。
[4]费孝通:《江村农民生活及其变迁》,敦煌文艺出版社,1997年(2000年重印版),第63页。费孝通(1997)在此书第75页的注释中也提出:从法律观点来看,一个人虽然无亲属关系,但永久地住在此群体内者,亦应视为“家”的一员。但此规定并未被村民所接收。甚至那些在“家”中居住了很长时间的人还是被认为与“家”的成员是有区别的。
[1]韩喜平:《中国农户经营系统分析》,中国经济出版社,2004年,第2页。
[2]W·R·葛迪斯:《共产党领导下的中国农民生活》,载《江村农民生活及其变迁》,敦煌文艺出版社,1997年(2000年重印版),第318页。
[3]根据“中国农村微观经济组织形式研究”课题组于2002年初的寒假期间在全国20个省(市、自治区)87个县(市)开展的农村千户调查数据整理所得。调查总户数为:1011户。
[4]曹阳:《外部环境约束·农户“经济人”理性行为决策》,载《中国农村研究》(2002年卷),中国社会科学出版社,2003年,第282页。
[1]Heckman(1981a,b)提出了个体劳动选择行为“状态依赖”的概念。笔者在此处所指的是农户家庭成员因长期外出就业而形成的地域选择的状态集聚。这一现象也正是由于“状态依赖”的选择行为而引发。
[2]为了确定农户就业选择集,我们可以将农村住户的从业类型进行适当抽象,以代表农户面临着的不同的就业选择方案。农村住户的从业类型可以按照收入来源和劳动时间进行分类,分类标准有两种:第一,农户各种收入来源中农业收入和非农业收入占本户总收入的比重。第一产业收入占总收入95%以上的农户为纯农业户;第一产业收入占50%-95%的农户为农业兼业户;第一产业收入占5%-50%的农户为非农兼业户;第一产业收入占5%以下的农户为非农业户。第二,农业劳动时间占农户总劳动时间的比重。农业劳动时间占总劳动时间95%以上为纯农业户;农业劳动时间占50%-95%的农户为农业兼业户;农业劳动时间占5%-50%的农户为非农兼业户;农业劳动时间占5%以下的农户为非农业户。
[3]UNICEF East Asia & Pacific Regional Office.Mobile Population and Vulnerability.Bangkok,1998:3-36.
[4]张为民等:《中国流动人口状况分析》,《经济研究参考》1998年第51期。
[1]数据来源于国务院研究室课题组:《中国农民工调研报告》,中国言实出版社,2006年,第4页。
[2]数据来源于国研网“中国农村劳动力转移”课题组:《中国农村劳动力转移现状、问题与发展》,国务院发展研究中心信息网,2004年。
[3]数据来源于朱信凯、陶怀颖:《农民工直接问卷调查情况分析》,载国务院研究室课题组:《中国农民工调研报告》,中国言实出版社,2006年,第117页。该项调查的有效问卷总数为:810份。
[4]国家统计局农调总队在农村住户抽样调查中将农村转移劳动力定义为:当年在乡以外就业半年以上或在本乡以内从事非农就业活动半年以上的农村劳动力。由婚姻、就学和参军等引起劳动力发生地域性转移不视为农村转移劳动力。(参见国家统计局:《农村住户调查方案》.2003年。)本文中讨论的农村劳动力流动与“转移劳动力”在统计意义上基本相同,但在理论意义上是有差异的。
[5]此定义来源于刘纯彬:《农村劳动力转移与城镇化发展的协调性研究》,载农业部软科学委员会办公室编《农业部软科学课题成果数据库》,内部资料,2006年10月。
[6]国家统计局:《农村住户调查方案》,内部资料,2005年。
[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所:《现代经济辞典》,凤凰出版社和江苏人民出版社,2005年,第551页。
[2]本文所说的农户之间的社会互动(social interaction)是指,不同农户家庭行为状态之间的相互影响,这种影响并不是在市场上通过价格机制形成,而是通过一系列的诸如“社会规范”、“相互攀比”、“羊群效应”、“就业集聚效应”、“模仿”等方面的非正式制度所形成。
[1]Douglass C.North:《交易成本、制度和经济史》,载埃瑞克·G·菲吕博顿、鲁道夫主编:《新制度经济学》,中译本,上海财经大学出版社,1998年,第245页。
[2]以家庭极大化为准则的芝加哥理论框架也称为“新家庭经济学”理论分析框架。这种分析框架的主要代表是加里·S·贝克尔。贝克尔(1993,中译本,第8页)在《人类行为的经济分析》一书中指出:最大化行为、市场均衡和偏好稳定的综合假定及其不折不扣地运用构成了经济分析的核心。“新家庭经济学”的分析框架即是在上述三个核心前提下展开对家庭内成员的生产、消费、生育、婚姻等一系列行为的分析范式。
[1]传统农户经济模型的框架将劳动投入仅仅只分为家庭劳动力投入和雇佣的劳动力投入,因此缺乏对家庭内部成员分工的分析,而传统贝克尔家庭分析框架则又仅仅涉及对家庭内部成员的家务劳动(在贝克尔看来是非市场劳动)和市场劳动的分工。为了分析农户家庭的内部劳动分工以及在农业领域和非农业领域分配劳动力的决策行为,笔者将二者分析的框架进行融合,以构建新的分析农户经济行为的分析框架。有关传统农户经济模型和贝克尔的框架请参见如下文献:(1)Inderjit Singh,Lyn Squire & John Strauss,"The Basic Model:Theory,Empirical Results,and Policy Conclusions" in Inderjit Singh,Lyn Squire & John Strauss edited,Agricultural Household Models:Extensions,Application,and Policy,Baltimore and London,The John Hopkins University Press,1986:17-20.(2)Gary S.Becker,A Treatise on the Family,Harvard University,1991.
[1]参见德怀特·H.珀金斯:《中国的经济政策及其贯彻情况》载(美)R.麦克法奈尔、费正清编:《剑桥中华人民共和国史.下卷,中国革命内部的革命:1966-1982年》,中国社会科学出版社,1992年,第519页。
[2]同上,第528页。
[1]根据国家发展和改革委员会的一项测算:2003年,政策性因素对当年的农民收入增长的贡献率就达到了1个百分点。测算结果来源于杜鹰:《2005年全国农民收入增长预测》,载农业部软科学委员会办公室编《农业部软科学课题成果数据库》,内部资料,2006年10月。
[2]在国家统计局农村社会经济调查司提供的数据中,改革初期所指的“工资性收入”主要包括由农村集体基本核算单位以实物和现金等形式发放给农民的“工资”以及少量农民到非农产业就业的“工资”所得;1990年以来,同样是在国家统计局农村社会经济调查司提供的数据中,“工资性收入”则是指农村住户成员受雇于单位或个人,靠出卖劳动而获得的收入(国家统计局:《中国农村住户调查方案》,内部资料,2002年8月),其中更多的则是农民在非农领域劳动就业所获得的现金工资。因此,改革初期统计的农村居民“工资性收入”与1990年以来直到当前所统计的“工资性收入”在收入来源结构和内含上具有较大的差异。
[1]数据来源于国家统计局:《中国统计年鉴-2007》,中国统计出版社,2007年,第367页。
[1]西方学者针对改革以前中国农村发展战略的评论中说:“就1955-1956年农业生产合作社和1958年农村人民公社在全国范围内的成立而言,唯一的、也是最重要的经济方面的理由是,人们相信,它们的成立就有可能动员千千万万的农村‘剩余'劳动力来修建中国缺乏的灌溉系统、道路之类的基础设施。”(参见(美)R.麦克法奈尔、费正清编:《剑桥中华人民共和国史.下卷,中国革命内部的革命:1966-1982年》,中国社会科学出版社,1992年,第518页。)
[1]1982年,中央一号文件肯定了多种形式的农村承包责任制,真正意义上肯定了“包产到户”;1983年,中央一号文件开始注重农村商品生产的发展,发展农村工商业;1984年,中央一号文件开始注意疏通农村商品的流通渠道,以加强市场发育,推动商品生产流通的进一步繁荣:1985年,中央一号文件进一步强化发展农业生产力,调整农业生产结构;1986年,中央一号文件强调了增加农业和水利投入,理顺工农关系和城乡关系,政府重新回归到重视农业投入和补贴上。关于1982-1986年中央一号文件的详细判断参见杜润生:《杜润生自述:中国农村体制变革重大决策纪实》,人民出版社,2005年,第135-145页。
[1]数据来源于中共中央政策研究室、农业部农村固定观察点办公室编:《全国农村社会经济典型调查数据汇编》,中国农业出版社,2001年,第47页、第71页。
[1]数据来源于韩俊、崔传义、范皑皑:《农村剩余劳动力微观调查》,载蔡昉主编:《中国人口与劳动问题报告NO.8:刘易斯转折点及其政策挑战》,社会科学文献出版社,2007年,第117页。
[2]这里笔者统计的外出劳动力数量的口径比国务院发展研究中心“推进社会主义新农村建设”课题组调查的外出劳动力口径更为宽泛一些,包括了农户在离开村庄不远的乡镇里从事非农领域就业的劳动力以及乡镇以外一切空间范围就业的劳动力,获得的统计结果在数量上也相对多一些。
[1]蔡昉:《劳动力流动的政治经济学》,上海三联书店,2003年,第102页。
[1]萨伊:《政治经济学概论》,商务印书馆,1963年,第326页。
[1]根据中华人民共和国劳动和社会保障部编:《中国劳动和社会保障年鉴-1999》,中国劳动社会保障出版社,2000年,第417页的数据计算所得。
[2]数据来源于国家统计局人口和就业统计司、劳动和社会保障部规划财务司编:《中国劳动统计年鉴-2006》,中国统计出版社,2006年,第472页,表7-2。
[1]数据来源于国家统计局人口和就业统计司、劳动和社会保障部规划财务司编:《中国劳动统计年鉴-2006》,中国统计出版社,2006年,第471页,表7-1。
[2]数据来源于农业部乡镇企业局编:《中国乡镇企业统计资料》,载张毅、张颂颂:《中国乡镇企业简史》,中国农业出版社,2001年,第83页、118页。
[1]数据来源于农业部:《中国农业发展报告-2005》,中国农业出版社,2005年,第151页。
[2]西北地区一些农业专家、学者1989年7月向新华社记者谈到:“盲目发展乡镇企业,给农业发展带来很不利的影响。一是牵扯县乡领导的精力。二是拉走了农业第一线的强壮劳动力。三是转移了农业资金。”他们建议:“要把兴办乡镇企业的温度降下来,要把那些浪费电力和原材料的乡镇企业坚决关一批。”(参见张毅、张颂颂:《中国乡镇企业简史》,中国农业出版社,第121页。)
[3]数据来源于国家统计局:《中国统计年鉴-2007》,中国统计出版社,第130页,表5-3:第449页,表12-31。
[4]数据来源于农业部乡镇企业局提供的资料,载国家统计局编:《中国统计年鉴-2003》,中国统计出版社,第449页,表12-31。
[5]数据来源于国家统计局人口和就业统计司、劳动和社会保障部规划财务司编:《中国劳动统计年鉴-2006》,中国统计出版社,2006年,第472页,表7-2。
[1]具体的调查数据表明:28县、市外出劳动力从事工业(含手工业)的占39.9%,建筑业占41.9%,商业服务业占11.6%,交通运输业占1.5%,农业仅仅占到5.1%(参见“农村剩余劳动力转移与劳动力市场”课题组:《28个县(市)农村劳动力跨区域流动的调查研究》,《中国农村经济》1995年第4期)。
[2]数据来源于国家统计局:《中国统计年鉴-2007》,中国统计出版社,第130页,表5-3。
[3]数据来源于国家统计局湖北调查总队历年农村住户调查资料。
[4]具体的调查数据参见白南生、宋洪远等:《回乡,还是进城?--中国农村外出劳动力回流研究》,中国财政经济出版社,2002年,第57页。
[1]数据来源于韩俊、崔传义、范皑皑:《农村剩余劳动力微观调查》,载蔡昉主编:《中国人口与劳动问题报告NO.8:刘易斯转折点及其政策挑战》,社会科学文献出版社,2007年,第118-119页、第122页。
[2]数据来源于国务院研究室课题组:《中国农民工调研报告》,中国言实出版社,2006年,第3页。
[3]数据来源于赵树凯:《纵横城乡--农民流动的观察与研究》,中国农业出版社,1998年,第248页。
[4]具体的就业政策和制度将在本文的第5章中详细论述。
[1]数据来源于国家统计局编:《中国统计摘要-2006》,中国统计出版社,2006年,第108页。
[2]数据来源于王西玉、崔传义、赵阳、马忠东:《中国二元结构下的农村劳动力流动及其政策选择》,载邓鸿勋、陆百甫主编:《走出二元结构--农民就业创业研究》,中国发展出版社,2004年,第341页。
[3]数据来源于湖北省农村固定观察点办公室调查资料。
[1]数据来源于中共中央政策研究室农村组:《关于农村劳动力跨区域流动问题的初步研究》,《中国农村经济》1994年第3期。
[2]数据来源于农业部农村固定观察点办公室在全国29个省、市、区的318个村庄固定观察点的25600个农户样本的基础上再次抽样得到7677户农户调查的结果,载张晓辉、赵长保、陈良彪:《1994:农村劳动力跨区域流动的实证描述》,《战略与管理》1995年第6期。
[3]数据来源于中华人民共和国农业部:《中国农业发展报告-1996》,中国农业出版社,1996年,第204页;中华人民共和国农业部:《中国农业发展报告-2000》,中国农业出版社,2000年,第133页。
[1]数据来源于中华人民共和国农业部:《中国农业发展报告-2001》,中国农业出版社,第135页。
[2]数据来源于中华人民共和国农业部:《中国农业发展报告-2007》,中国农业出版社,第173页。
[1]这里根据劳动力向外流动就业的半径从小到大依次划分为四类:出乡(县内)就业、出县(省内)就业、出省(国内)就业、境外就业。
[2]数据来源于中华人民共和国农业部:《中国农业发展报告-2001》,中国农业出版社,第135页;中华人民共和国农业部:《中国农业发展报告-2006》,中国农业出版社,第159页。
[1]后文将会对外出劳动力互动影响的机制进行详细分析,在此不必赘述。
[2]根据国家统计局湖北调查总队2006年对湖北3300户农村住户抽样调查数据整理得到:2006年,3300个样本农户中外出就业劳动力为3237人,而当年返回的劳动力仅为105人,二者相差3132人。
[1]2003年的数据来源于农业部农村固定观察点办公室,2006年的数据来源于中华人民共和国农业部:《中国农业发展报告-2007》,中国农业出版社,2007年,第172页。
[2]这里的Gini系数根据历年湖北省农村社会经济抽样调查结果测算而得。
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[2]李强:《影响中国城乡流动人口的推力与拉力因素分析》,《中国社会科学》2003年第1期。
[3]这里的计量结果似乎表明:城乡收入差异反而对农户外出就业成本的增加具有正向影响。当然,在显著性程度不高的条件下表现出来的影响方向并不具有很强的实际意义。
[4]蔡昉、都阳:《迁移的双重动因及其政策含义》,中国网(http://www.china.org.cn),2003年。
[5]白南生、宋洪远等:《回乡,还是进城?》,中国财政经济出版社,2002年。
[1]数据来源于张毅、张颂颂:《中国乡镇企业简史》,中国农业出版社,2001年,第250页。
[1]具体政策参见中共中央书记处农村政策研究室资料室编:《十一届三中全会以来农村政策文件选集》,中共中央党校出版社,1985年,第230页。
[2]数据来源于张毅、张颂颂:《中国乡镇企业简史》,中国农业出版社,2001年,第250页。
[1]数据来源于张毅、张颂颂:《中国乡镇企业简史》,中国农业出版社,2001年,第250页;中国乡镇企业年鉴编辑委员会编:《中国乡镇企业年鉴(1992)》,农业出版社,1992年,第3页。
[1]数据来源于农业部产业政策与法规司编:《农村政策法规调查与研究(2003)》,中国农业出版社,2004年,第154页。
[2]数据来源于中国社会科学院经济文化研究中心《城乡经济关系》研究组:《城乡之间的劳动力流动》,载中国社会科学院经济文化研究中心编《调查研究通讯》NO.98-13,1998年11月8日。
[3]数据来源于农业部产业政策与法规司编:《农村政策法规调查与研究(2003)》,中国农业出版社,2004年,第189页、190页。
[1]前面已经详细论述了农户就业决策行为的“状态依赖”特征,具体内容请参见第3章。
[1]唐平(2007)认为,当前“各项惠农政策效果显现,是农村居民增收的重要因素。”参见唐平:《农村居民收入与生活》,载中国社会科学院农村发展研究所、国家统计局农村社会经济调查司著《2006-2007年:中国农村经济形势分析与预测》,社会科学文献出版社,2007年,第128页。
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