基于火灾动力学与统计理论耦合的风险评估方法研究
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摘要
由于大型公共场所和高层建筑的人员密集、功能复杂、疏散困难等原因，一旦发生火灾很容易造成群死群伤以及巨大的财产损失。随着社会的发展和建筑技术的不断进步，超高、超大、设计新颖的建筑大量涌现，由此带来的火灾安全问题日益严重。现行的防火设计规范无法解决这些建筑的防火设计问题，目前较为可行的方式是依靠性能化防火设计方法。而切实可行的性能化防火设计离不开科学的火灾风险评估方法。迄今，基于对火灾随机性规律的认识而建立的诸如分级风险分析等方法已经比较成熟，其缺点是难以对火灾风险进行定量和动态的分析；而另一方面，由于火灾过程的复杂性、火灾作为灾害事件的偶发性、以及现有信息资料和理论知识的不完备性，也无法单纯基于火灾的确定性规律来进行风险评估。基于此，如何将火灾动力学与统计理论耦合，体现火灾的确定性与随机性的双重性规律，从而实现对火灾风险的定量评估，成为亟待解决的问题。本文在综合当前火灾风险评估方法的基础上，提出了建筑火灾财产损失评估方法与人员伤亡预期风险评估方法。本文主要工作如下：
提出了建筑火灾直接财产损失评估方法。该方法根据火灾发展过程中的不同动力学特征和消防设施防灭火的效果，将火灾从起火室蔓延至整个防火分区划分为5个阶段。建立了基于火灾动力学理论与建筑物防灭火特性相耦合的火蔓延概率估算方法。通过对每个阶段进行分析，得到了火灾发展过程中每个阶段的临界时间，并以此为基础导出了火灾发生后建筑物烧损面积的预测方法。进而引入建筑物的财产因子，建立了火灾直接财产损失的评估方法。该方法实现了对建筑火灾直接财产损失的动态和定量评价，可以为火灾基本保险费率的厘定提供合理的依据。
针对火灾风险评估中人员疏散时间重要组成部分之一的疏散准备时间的随机性，开展了疏散准备时间对疏散时间影响的研究。运用人员疏散软件Gridflow模拟研究了在单室和多层多室两个建筑场景下，疏散准备时间分别取为正态分布与定值时对人员疏散的影响。模拟计算结果显示：(1)人员疏散时间是疏散准备时间与人员密度的函数。当疏散准备时间服从正态分布，但其平均值比较小的情况下，人员疏散时间主要受人员密度的影响。随着疏散准备时间平均值的增加，人员疏散时间受人员密度变化的影响越来越小。疏散准备时间取为定值时，无论疏散准备时间的大小如何，人员疏散时间均受人员密度变化的影响。(2)对于较长的疏散准备时间，如果没有形成严重的拥塞与排队现象(如较低的人员密度或较宽的出口)，当疏散准备时间服从正态分布时，总的疏散时间也服从正态分布。
提出了人员伤亡预期风险评估方法。该方法将人员伤亡预期风险作为评估目标，主要计算两个重要参数：火灾场景出现的概率；每个火灾场景可能造成的伤亡人数。通过考虑火灾发展与烟气蔓延的相关随机因素(如：火灾增长系数、防灭火设施实施概率随时间变化)，基于事件树与火灾模拟软件构建可能导致的火灾场景，并根据离散Markov链分析了火灾场景发生的概率随火灾发展时刻的变化情况。对于人员疏散时间的计算，基于火灾增长系数随机性，将火灾探测报警时间取为概率分布；考虑疏散准备时间的随机性，将其取为正态分布。对于火灾危险状态来临时间的计算，基于火灾增长系数随机性考虑设定火灾的不确定性，将火灾危险状态来临时间表示为概率分布。通过比较火灾危险状态来临时间与人员疏散时间的关系，计算得到每个火灾场景可能导致的伤亡人数。
Fire may induce considerable casualties and monetary loss, because of high occupant density, complex function and inconvenient evacuation in large public and high-rise building. With development of economy and architecture technology, these super high, super large and novel buildings will increase in recent years. The current prescriptive code is not suitable to the fire safety design of these new-style, complex and special buildings. The recommended method is based on performance-based fire protection design. However, fire risk assessment is the foundation of performance-based fire protection design, and appropriate performance-based fire protection design can not be well implemented without reasonable fire risk assessment. On one hand, until now, some fire risk assessment methods such as risk classification based on stochastic rules have become mature. However, these methods are difficult to analyze fire risk quantitatively. On the other hand, because of the complex of fire process, the uncertainty of fire being considered as a disaster and the incompletion of current information and knowledge, risk assessment can not be implemented only based on deterministic rule. Therefore, how to couple fire dynamics with statistical theory to make quantitative fire risk assessment is a problem. Based on summarizing the current fire risk assessment methods, building fire monetary loss assessment and expected fire risk to life safety assessment are presented in this study. The contents of this paper are as follows:
A new building fire direct monetary loss assessment method is presented. According to various fire dynamics characteristics in different fire development process and fire protection systems, fire from ignition to spread in the whole fire compartment is divided into five phases. Firstly, fire spread probability assessment method is presented based on fire dynamics and fire protection system. Secondly, critical time of every fire phase can be calculated according to fire dynamics of every phase. Then, fire spread area can be calculated. When monetary factor is introduced, fire monetary loss can be obtained. This building fire direct monetary loss assessment method not only predicts direct fire monetary loss quantitatively, but also provides reference on fire insurance rate determination.
The effect of pre-movement time on evacuation is studied with consideration of stochastic rules of pre-movement time. Based on evacuation software Gridflow, the effect of pre-movement time characterized by normal distribution and explicit value on evacuation time is studied under one floor and multi-layer building scenarios. The simulation results shows: (1) occupant evacuation time is the function of pre-movement time and occupant density. When pre-movement time follows normal distribution, for small occupant pre-movement time, evacuation time is a function of pre-movement time and occupant density. For large occupant pre-movement time, evacuation time is dominated by pre-movement time little irrespective of occupant density. When pre-movement time is characterized by explicit value, no matter how large pre-movement time, occupant evacuation time will dominated by occupant density. (2) For large mean pre-movement time, low occupant density, or wide exit, as long as little congestion and queue comes into being; the flow of people through the exit is not blocked. When pre-movement time follows normal distribution, total evacuation time also follows normal distribution shifting to right by a constant.
An expected fire risk to life assessment method is presented. This method makes expect risk to life (ERL) as object. There are two key parameters: occurrence probability of fire scenario, number of injuries and deaths of every fire scenario. With consideration of some stochastic factors of fire spread and smoke movement (fire growth rate, probability of fire protection system), probable fire scenario can be constructed based on event tree and fire simulation software. Then, occurrence probability of every fire scenario at different time can be obtained according to discrete markov chain. For occupant evacuation time calculation, fire detection time is characterized by probability distribution with consideration of uncertainty of fire growth rate. Occupant pre-movement time is characterized by normal distribution. By comparison onset time to untenable conditions with evacuation time, number of injuries and deaths of every fire scenario can be calculated.
提出了建筑火灾直接财产损失评估方法。该方法根据火灾发展过程中的不同动力学特征和消防设施防灭火的效果，将火灾从起火室蔓延至整个防火分区划分为5个阶段。建立了基于火灾动力学理论与建筑物防灭火特性相耦合的火蔓延概率估算方法。通过对每个阶段进行分析，得到了火灾发展过程中每个阶段的临界时间，并以此为基础导出了火灾发生后建筑物烧损面积的预测方法。进而引入建筑物的财产因子，建立了火灾直接财产损失的评估方法。该方法实现了对建筑火灾直接财产损失的动态和定量评价，可以为火灾基本保险费率的厘定提供合理的依据。
针对火灾风险评估中人员疏散时间重要组成部分之一的疏散准备时间的随机性，开展了疏散准备时间对疏散时间影响的研究。运用人员疏散软件Gridflow模拟研究了在单室和多层多室两个建筑场景下，疏散准备时间分别取为正态分布与定值时对人员疏散的影响。模拟计算结果显示：(1)人员疏散时间是疏散准备时间与人员密度的函数。当疏散准备时间服从正态分布，但其平均值比较小的情况下，人员疏散时间主要受人员密度的影响。随着疏散准备时间平均值的增加，人员疏散时间受人员密度变化的影响越来越小。疏散准备时间取为定值时，无论疏散准备时间的大小如何，人员疏散时间均受人员密度变化的影响。(2)对于较长的疏散准备时间，如果没有形成严重的拥塞与排队现象(如较低的人员密度或较宽的出口)，当疏散准备时间服从正态分布时，总的疏散时间也服从正态分布。
提出了人员伤亡预期风险评估方法。该方法将人员伤亡预期风险作为评估目标，主要计算两个重要参数：火灾场景出现的概率；每个火灾场景可能造成的伤亡人数。通过考虑火灾发展与烟气蔓延的相关随机因素(如：火灾增长系数、防灭火设施实施概率随时间变化)，基于事件树与火灾模拟软件构建可能导致的火灾场景，并根据离散Markov链分析了火灾场景发生的概率随火灾发展时刻的变化情况。对于人员疏散时间的计算，基于火灾增长系数随机性，将火灾探测报警时间取为概率分布；考虑疏散准备时间的随机性，将其取为正态分布。对于火灾危险状态来临时间的计算，基于火灾增长系数随机性考虑设定火灾的不确定性，将火灾危险状态来临时间表示为概率分布。通过比较火灾危险状态来临时间与人员疏散时间的关系，计算得到每个火灾场景可能导致的伤亡人数。
Fire may induce considerable casualties and monetary loss, because of high occupant density, complex function and inconvenient evacuation in large public and high-rise building. With development of economy and architecture technology, these super high, super large and novel buildings will increase in recent years. The current prescriptive code is not suitable to the fire safety design of these new-style, complex and special buildings. The recommended method is based on performance-based fire protection design. However, fire risk assessment is the foundation of performance-based fire protection design, and appropriate performance-based fire protection design can not be well implemented without reasonable fire risk assessment. On one hand, until now, some fire risk assessment methods such as risk classification based on stochastic rules have become mature. However, these methods are difficult to analyze fire risk quantitatively. On the other hand, because of the complex of fire process, the uncertainty of fire being considered as a disaster and the incompletion of current information and knowledge, risk assessment can not be implemented only based on deterministic rule. Therefore, how to couple fire dynamics with statistical theory to make quantitative fire risk assessment is a problem. Based on summarizing the current fire risk assessment methods, building fire monetary loss assessment and expected fire risk to life safety assessment are presented in this study. The contents of this paper are as follows:
A new building fire direct monetary loss assessment method is presented. According to various fire dynamics characteristics in different fire development process and fire protection systems, fire from ignition to spread in the whole fire compartment is divided into five phases. Firstly, fire spread probability assessment method is presented based on fire dynamics and fire protection system. Secondly, critical time of every fire phase can be calculated according to fire dynamics of every phase. Then, fire spread area can be calculated. When monetary factor is introduced, fire monetary loss can be obtained. This building fire direct monetary loss assessment method not only predicts direct fire monetary loss quantitatively, but also provides reference on fire insurance rate determination.
The effect of pre-movement time on evacuation is studied with consideration of stochastic rules of pre-movement time. Based on evacuation software Gridflow, the effect of pre-movement time characterized by normal distribution and explicit value on evacuation time is studied under one floor and multi-layer building scenarios. The simulation results shows: (1) occupant evacuation time is the function of pre-movement time and occupant density. When pre-movement time follows normal distribution, for small occupant pre-movement time, evacuation time is a function of pre-movement time and occupant density. For large occupant pre-movement time, evacuation time is dominated by pre-movement time little irrespective of occupant density. When pre-movement time is characterized by explicit value, no matter how large pre-movement time, occupant evacuation time will dominated by occupant density. (2) For large mean pre-movement time, low occupant density, or wide exit, as long as little congestion and queue comes into being; the flow of people through the exit is not blocked. When pre-movement time follows normal distribution, total evacuation time also follows normal distribution shifting to right by a constant.
An expected fire risk to life assessment method is presented. This method makes expect risk to life (ERL) as object. There are two key parameters: occurrence probability of fire scenario, number of injuries and deaths of every fire scenario. With consideration of some stochastic factors of fire spread and smoke movement (fire growth rate, probability of fire protection system), probable fire scenario can be constructed based on event tree and fire simulation software. Then, occurrence probability of every fire scenario at different time can be obtained according to discrete markov chain. For occupant evacuation time calculation, fire detection time is characterized by probability distribution with consideration of uncertainty of fire growth rate. Occupant pre-movement time is characterized by normal distribution. By comparison onset time to untenable conditions with evacuation time, number of injuries and deaths of every fire scenario can be calculated.
引文
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