基于生态经济模型的泰安旅游可持续发展评析与预测
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摘要
如何有效地客观度量旅游可持续发展状态，成为实践旅游地可持续理论的重要途径之一。评价区域生态经济系统旅游可持续发展的能力，需要把旅游地生态旅游系统和经济系统统一进行定量分析。本文首先分析了选题的背景、意义、技术路线，综述了目前较先进的两种可持续评价方法（旅游生态足迹方法和能值分析方法）研究现状，并试图对这两种方法进行改进：改进旅游生态足迹模型，将能值分析的方法应用到旅游可持续发展评价上。同时，将这两种生态经济评价方法对泰安旅游可持续发展做出定量分析。具体内容如下：
1、改进旅游生态足迹
改进传统的旅游生态足迹模型，增加旅游从业人员的生态足迹。改进后的旅游生态足迹模型包括：旅游餐饮生态足迹、旅游住宿生态足迹、旅游购物生态足迹和旅游交通生态足迹四部分。通过改进的旅游生态足迹模型结合旅游生态收入率指标、旅游生态足迹指数定量评价泰安旅游可持续发展水平，以及区域旅游发展变化趋势，判断将来的发展态势，以及将来发展可能的TEC、TEFI、TEF值。通过对2001至2010年时间序列的旅游生态足迹发展状况，利用双重筛选逐步回归分析方法确定影响生态足迹的主要因子以及利用ARIMA模型进行时间序列多情景预测。结果表明：（1）改进的旅游生态足迹考虑了旅游从业人员的生态占用，包括4项分足迹：旅游餐饮生态足迹、旅游住宿生态足迹、旅游交通生态足迹和旅游购物生态足迹。（2）泰安市TEF的逐年提高，餐饮生态足迹所占比重最大，购物生态足迹增长最为迅速。2010年TEF达到540294.27hm~2，比2001年增长8.2倍，而TEFI逐年降低，2010年达到-1.83为“重不可持续发展”。（3）根据时间序列的AIRMA模型分析，在预测TEFI三种情景和TEC三种情景前提下，2015年TEF数值将有9种预测值：395192.97hm~2、379757.7hm~2、372578.2hm~2、787029.8hm~2、756290.3hm~2、741992.3hm~2、614257hm~2、590265.6hm~2、579106.4hm~2。
2、旅游系统能值分析
将能值分析的理论运用到旅游可持续发展评价上，从区域生态经济系统的视角，论述旅游输入能值、旅游输出能值、旅游产出率、旅游可持续发展指标等概念及其测算依据和计算方法，并测算2001-2010年泰安市生态经济系统旅游各项能值指标，对2001-2010年泰安区域生态经济系统内旅游可持续发展水平进行定量评价和趋势分析。运用逐步回归法，分析旅游可持续发展驱动因子，并利用AIRMA模型，对驱动因子进行分析，利用CAR模型，对未来五年旅游可持续发展水平进行多情景预测。结果表明：（1）2010年旅游输出能值达到834.96×1019sej，比2001年增长了9.5倍；旅游输入能值为828.83×1019sej比2001年增长了4.37倍。泰安旅游能值产出率（TEYR）逐年降低，2001年为1.94，2010年降到0.99，旅游的经济效益是低于整个生态经济系统。（2）泰安旅游在2001、2002年还是可持续发展，2003-2005年处在“不可持续发展”状态，2006-2010年，TESI一直处在0.74-0.85之间，是“重不可持续发展”。（3）逐步回归模型分析旅游可持续发展的驱动因子为旅游收入、旅游者逗留天数、旅游者消费系数和旅游人数。（4）根据时间序列的AIRMA模型分析，2015年旅游收入将为436709.09万元，旅游者消费系数为4.37，旅游者逗留天数为2.30天，环境承载率将为2.13。（5）多变量CAR模型：Y(t)=0.0000178X(1,t-1)+2.4948321X(2,t)-1.3137148X(2,t-1)-1.6262495X(4,t)+0.7270254X(4,t-1)。未来的五年泰安旅游将是不可持续发展的。
3、泰安旅游可持续发展对策和旅游形象重定位与策划
通过对泰安市旅游可持续发展的评价，提出泰安旅游可持续发展对策以及开展城市生态旅游是以泰山这一山岳风景名胜区为主要旅游区的城市旅游可持续发展最佳途径。对泰安城市生态旅游进行形象策划和产品设计。
How to objective measure tourism sustainable development condition effectively is oneof the important ways to practice sustainable theory.It is necessary to unify ecosystem andtourism economic system to quantitative analysis tourism ability of sustainable developmentin ec-economic system.First, background and significance of choosing issuewere given in thedissertation, and then, analyzed the technical route and overviewed the current researchingsituation of the two advanced sustainable evaluation method (tourism ecological footprintmethod and the emergy analysis method). It improved tourism ecological footprint model andbased on the theory of the emergy analysis, analyzed the tourism sustainable developmentlevel.Meanwhile, quantitatively analyzed tourism sustainable development of ec-economicsystem in Taian City. Specific content as follows:
1. Improved TEF
Based on the theory of the tourism ecological footprint, the dissertationr improved themodel of TEF, introduced the tourism ecological footprint index. It evaluate tourismsustainable development level quantitatively and analyze its trend from2001to2010in TaianCity，and also forecast the the tourism ecological footprint from various scenarios based onARIMA model. Combining tourism ecological income index and tourism ecological footprintindex, it quantitative evaluated tourism sustainable development level and trend in Taian Cityand forecast the TEC, TEFI, and TEF in the future. Through the time series of tourismecological footprint, using double screening stepwise regression analysis method to determinethe main influencing factors of tourism ecological footprint.It also used ARIMA model tovarious scenarios forecast. The results indicate that:(1) improved tourism ecologicalfootprint considered the ecological footprint of tourism operators, including four pointsfootprint: tourism ecological footprint of accommodation, tourism ecological footprint of food,tourism ecological footprint of traffic and the tourism ecological footprint of shoppingt.(2) TEF is growing rapidly in Taian City, and up to540294.27hm~2in2010, Increased by8.2times more than2001. Tourism ecological footprint index reduced year by year and it upto-1.83in2010. The sustainable development level change from “sustainable development” in2001to “heavy unsustainable development” in2010.(3) According to the time sequence ofAIRMA model analysis, under the forecast premise of the tourism ecological footprint indexand the tourism ecological capacity,the TEF will have9predictions in2015:395192.97hm~2,379757.7hm~2,372578.2hm~2,787029.8hm~2,756290.3hm~2,741992.3hm~2,614257hm~2,590265.6hm~2,579106.4hm~2.
2. Tourism emergy analysis
Based on the theory of the emergy analysis, the dissertation analyzed the tourismsustainable development level. From the regional ec-economic system,it discussed theconcept, measurement basis and calculation method of tourism emergy from income (Emti)，tourism emergy from tourist consume(Emto),tourism emergy yield ratio(TEYR)，tourismEmergy sustainable indices(TESI),and quantitatively analyze tourism sustainabledevelopment of ec-economic system in Taian City from2001-2010. Using stepwiseregression method, it analyzed tourism sustainable development driving factors, and usedAIRMA model to forecast the next five years development level of driving factors. It usedCAR model to multi-scenes prediction of tourism sustainable development level from2011to2015. The results indicate that:(1) tourism emergy from income(Emti) of ec-economic systemin Taian was828.831019sej, the tourism emergy from tourist consume(Emto) was about834.961019se.The TEYR declined gradually, tourism emergy wealth began to negativeaccumulation in2010. And compared ec-economic system of EYR, TEYR always lower thanEYR, it show that the economic benefits of tourism is lower than the ecological economicsystemwhile tourism emergy yield ratio(TEYR) was0.99.(2) Tourism was sustainabledevelopment, in2001and2002and it was " unsustainable "state from~2003to2005.it has been“heavy unsustainable development" state from2006to2010,because TESI has beenfrom0.74to0.85.(3) Based on stepwise regression analysis model, the driving factors oftourism sustainable development is tourist income， tourism residence time， touristconsumption coefficient and tourist.（4）Based on AIRMA model of time series, the touristincome will be4.3670909billion yuan, tourist consumption coefficient will be4.37, tourismresidence time will be2.30days, and ELR will be2.13.（5）The CAR model of TEYR is:Y(t)=0.0000178X(1,t-1)+2.4948321X(2,t)-1.3137148X(2,t-1)-1.6262495X(4,t)+0.7270254X(4,t-1).
3. Image Designing and market positioning
According to evaluation results of two methods, the dissertation put forward somecountermeasures and suggestions.It also gave image designing and market positioning oftourism in Taian City.
1、改进旅游生态足迹
改进传统的旅游生态足迹模型，增加旅游从业人员的生态足迹。改进后的旅游生态足迹模型包括：旅游餐饮生态足迹、旅游住宿生态足迹、旅游购物生态足迹和旅游交通生态足迹四部分。通过改进的旅游生态足迹模型结合旅游生态收入率指标、旅游生态足迹指数定量评价泰安旅游可持续发展水平，以及区域旅游发展变化趋势，判断将来的发展态势，以及将来发展可能的TEC、TEFI、TEF值。通过对2001至2010年时间序列的旅游生态足迹发展状况，利用双重筛选逐步回归分析方法确定影响生态足迹的主要因子以及利用ARIMA模型进行时间序列多情景预测。结果表明：（1）改进的旅游生态足迹考虑了旅游从业人员的生态占用，包括4项分足迹：旅游餐饮生态足迹、旅游住宿生态足迹、旅游交通生态足迹和旅游购物生态足迹。（2）泰安市TEF的逐年提高，餐饮生态足迹所占比重最大，购物生态足迹增长最为迅速。2010年TEF达到540294.27hm~2，比2001年增长8.2倍，而TEFI逐年降低，2010年达到-1.83为“重不可持续发展”。（3）根据时间序列的AIRMA模型分析，在预测TEFI三种情景和TEC三种情景前提下，2015年TEF数值将有9种预测值：395192.97hm~2、379757.7hm~2、372578.2hm~2、787029.8hm~2、756290.3hm~2、741992.3hm~2、614257hm~2、590265.6hm~2、579106.4hm~2。
2、旅游系统能值分析
将能值分析的理论运用到旅游可持续发展评价上，从区域生态经济系统的视角，论述旅游输入能值、旅游输出能值、旅游产出率、旅游可持续发展指标等概念及其测算依据和计算方法，并测算2001-2010年泰安市生态经济系统旅游各项能值指标，对2001-2010年泰安区域生态经济系统内旅游可持续发展水平进行定量评价和趋势分析。运用逐步回归法，分析旅游可持续发展驱动因子，并利用AIRMA模型，对驱动因子进行分析，利用CAR模型，对未来五年旅游可持续发展水平进行多情景预测。结果表明：（1）2010年旅游输出能值达到834.96×1019sej，比2001年增长了9.5倍；旅游输入能值为828.83×1019sej比2001年增长了4.37倍。泰安旅游能值产出率（TEYR）逐年降低，2001年为1.94，2010年降到0.99，旅游的经济效益是低于整个生态经济系统。（2）泰安旅游在2001、2002年还是可持续发展，2003-2005年处在“不可持续发展”状态，2006-2010年，TESI一直处在0.74-0.85之间，是“重不可持续发展”。（3）逐步回归模型分析旅游可持续发展的驱动因子为旅游收入、旅游者逗留天数、旅游者消费系数和旅游人数。（4）根据时间序列的AIRMA模型分析，2015年旅游收入将为436709.09万元，旅游者消费系数为4.37，旅游者逗留天数为2.30天，环境承载率将为2.13。（5）多变量CAR模型：Y(t)=0.0000178X(1,t-1)+2.4948321X(2,t)-1.3137148X(2,t-1)-1.6262495X(4,t)+0.7270254X(4,t-1)。未来的五年泰安旅游将是不可持续发展的。
3、泰安旅游可持续发展对策和旅游形象重定位与策划
通过对泰安市旅游可持续发展的评价，提出泰安旅游可持续发展对策以及开展城市生态旅游是以泰山这一山岳风景名胜区为主要旅游区的城市旅游可持续发展最佳途径。对泰安城市生态旅游进行形象策划和产品设计。
How to objective measure tourism sustainable development condition effectively is oneof the important ways to practice sustainable theory.It is necessary to unify ecosystem andtourism economic system to quantitative analysis tourism ability of sustainable developmentin ec-economic system.First, background and significance of choosing issuewere given in thedissertation, and then, analyzed the technical route and overviewed the current researchingsituation of the two advanced sustainable evaluation method (tourism ecological footprintmethod and the emergy analysis method). It improved tourism ecological footprint model andbased on the theory of the emergy analysis, analyzed the tourism sustainable developmentlevel.Meanwhile, quantitatively analyzed tourism sustainable development of ec-economicsystem in Taian City. Specific content as follows:
1. Improved TEF
Based on the theory of the tourism ecological footprint, the dissertationr improved themodel of TEF, introduced the tourism ecological footprint index. It evaluate tourismsustainable development level quantitatively and analyze its trend from2001to2010in TaianCity，and also forecast the the tourism ecological footprint from various scenarios based onARIMA model. Combining tourism ecological income index and tourism ecological footprintindex, it quantitative evaluated tourism sustainable development level and trend in Taian Cityand forecast the TEC, TEFI, and TEF in the future. Through the time series of tourismecological footprint, using double screening stepwise regression analysis method to determinethe main influencing factors of tourism ecological footprint.It also used ARIMA model tovarious scenarios forecast. The results indicate that:(1) improved tourism ecologicalfootprint considered the ecological footprint of tourism operators, including four pointsfootprint: tourism ecological footprint of accommodation, tourism ecological footprint of food,tourism ecological footprint of traffic and the tourism ecological footprint of shoppingt.(2) TEF is growing rapidly in Taian City, and up to540294.27hm~2in2010, Increased by8.2times more than2001. Tourism ecological footprint index reduced year by year and it upto-1.83in2010. The sustainable development level change from “sustainable development” in2001to “heavy unsustainable development” in2010.(3) According to the time sequence ofAIRMA model analysis, under the forecast premise of the tourism ecological footprint indexand the tourism ecological capacity,the TEF will have9predictions in2015:395192.97hm~2,379757.7hm~2,372578.2hm~2,787029.8hm~2,756290.3hm~2,741992.3hm~2,614257hm~2,590265.6hm~2,579106.4hm~2.
2. Tourism emergy analysis
Based on the theory of the emergy analysis, the dissertation analyzed the tourismsustainable development level. From the regional ec-economic system,it discussed theconcept, measurement basis and calculation method of tourism emergy from income (Emti)，tourism emergy from tourist consume(Emto),tourism emergy yield ratio(TEYR)，tourismEmergy sustainable indices(TESI),and quantitatively analyze tourism sustainabledevelopment of ec-economic system in Taian City from2001-2010. Using stepwiseregression method, it analyzed tourism sustainable development driving factors, and usedAIRMA model to forecast the next five years development level of driving factors. It usedCAR model to multi-scenes prediction of tourism sustainable development level from2011to2015. The results indicate that:(1) tourism emergy from income(Emti) of ec-economic systemin Taian was828.831019sej, the tourism emergy from tourist consume(Emto) was about834.961019se.The TEYR declined gradually, tourism emergy wealth began to negativeaccumulation in2010. And compared ec-economic system of EYR, TEYR always lower thanEYR, it show that the economic benefits of tourism is lower than the ecological economicsystemwhile tourism emergy yield ratio(TEYR) was0.99.(2) Tourism was sustainabledevelopment, in2001and2002and it was " unsustainable "state from~2003to2005.it has been“heavy unsustainable development" state from2006to2010,because TESI has beenfrom0.74to0.85.(3) Based on stepwise regression analysis model, the driving factors oftourism sustainable development is tourist income， tourism residence time， touristconsumption coefficient and tourist.（4）Based on AIRMA model of time series, the touristincome will be4.3670909billion yuan, tourist consumption coefficient will be4.37, tourismresidence time will be2.30days, and ELR will be2.13.（5）The CAR model of TEYR is:Y(t)=0.0000178X(1,t-1)+2.4948321X(2,t)-1.3137148X(2,t-1)-1.6262495X(4,t)+0.7270254X(4,t-1).
3. Image Designing and market positioning
According to evaluation results of two methods, the dissertation put forward somecountermeasures and suggestions.It also gave image designing and market positioning oftourism in Taian City.
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