收入分配与中等收入陷阱的关系研究
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摘要
2001年,我国人均收入水平达到1000美元,并于2010年人均收入顺利增加到4432美元,即将面临“中等收入陷阱”。对于我国如何跨越“中等收入陷阱”,成功步入高收入国家行列,关键还在于我国是否能够顺利解决收入分配问题。
故本文以“收入分配与中等收入陷阱的关系”为题,着重围绕以下几个问题展开研究：1.弄清中等收入陷阱的特征和本质；2.探究落入中等收入陷阱的原因；3.理清收入分配与中等收入陷阱的关系；4.分析收入分配影响—国最终落入中等收入陷阱的机制；5.通过对比陷入中等收入国家与成功跨越中等收入陷阱国家的收入分配基本情况,借鉴这些国家解决收入分配问题的经验,为我国成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”提供参考；最后,基于收入分配视角,对我国面临“中等收入陷阱”进行现实性分析。
为实现上述目标,本文遵循理论分析与实证分析相配合、定性分析与定量分析相呼应,横向分析与纵向比较相融合以及理论研究与政策研究相结合等原则,借鉴收入分配与经济增长的经典理论,考察了收入分配在不同经济发展阶段的影响,探讨了收入分配与“中等收入陷阱”的关系及传导机制和机理。本文主要做了以下工作：运用世界银行提供的数据,按照研究目的,设定样本选择标准,同时采用广义矩估计、Probit和Logit二元选择模型等计量经济学方法,分析了收入分配与中等收入陷阱的关系以及中等收入陷阱影响因素,并对我国跨越“中等收入陷阱”的可能性进行现实分析。
本文的主要研究结论如下：
第一,本文对“中等收入陷阱”特征事实进行陈述后,认为虽然有多种原因导致一国至今陷入“中等收入陷阱”,但最为关键也最为重要的是收入分配问题。通过对成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”和陷入“中等收入陷阱”国家在中等收入阶段时期的收入分配情况进行对比分析后,发现同时期成功国家的基尼系数在0.25-0.37之间,陷入国家的基尼系数都在0.47以上,甚至接近0.6。在随后的数理模型中,利用世界银行的各国宏观经济数据,借助动态面板模型,证实收入分配与经济增长遵循“倒U型”关系的一般原理,但在不同发展阶段,二者的关系不同。在中上等收入阶段,收入分配与经济增长存在负向关系；而在高收入阶段,收入分配与经济增长存在正向关系。
第二,本文通过对“中等收入陷阱”国家的各项经济指标的考察,运用二元选择模型,考察了影响一国至今在中等收入阶段徘徊的原因。结果显示,基尼系数越大,陷入“中等收入陷阱”的概率越高；研发投入越多和人力资本程度越高,则顺利渡过“中等收入陷阱”的可能性越大,而工业化进程和城市化水平的提高也有助于跨越“中等收入陷阱”。
第三,本文在分析收入分配如何导致一国长期陷入中等收入陷阱阶段的传导机制中发现,那些具有较低基尼系数或者成功步入高收入的经济体,其社会稳定程度较高,每十万人口中故意谋杀犯罪率也非常低,而那些陷入中等收入陷阱的经济体则恰好相反。这表明,社会稳定综合指数越高,收入分配通过社会稳定对经济增长的效果越显著,经济增长率越高,反之亦然;另一方面,社会治安状况越差,表明收入分配通过影响社会治安导致经济增长越会受到阻碍。所以,可以从增加话语权和问责制、加强政府效率、提高法规执行品质、坚持法治、加大防治腐败力度等六个方面提高社会稳定的综合情况,从而保持收入分配对经济增长的正向作用。
本文的创新可能有：
(1)本文试图以收入分配与中等收入陷阱的关系为主要研究脉络,系统地阐述了各国在中等收入阶段的收入分配基本情况,并深入分析了收入分配对中等收入陷阱的传导机制以及各国为缩小收入分配差距采取的各项措施。
(2)本文运用世界银行数据库,按照研究目的,设定了研究样本的筛选原则,对收入分配与中等收入陷阱的关系进行计量方法上的科学论证,并说明影响一国落入“中等收入陷阱的原因。
The income per capita of China is$1000in2001and has increased to$4432. Nowadays, China is facing "middle income trap". The key point of how to avoid the "middle income trap" for China is the income inequality gap.
Therefore, this paper is focused on the relationship of income distribution and middle-income trap. It emphases on the following issues:1. Clarify the characteristics and nature of the middle-income trap;2. Explore the reasons for falling into the middle-income trap;3.clarify the relationship between income distribution and middle-income trap;4. Analyze the mechanisms and channels of how income distribution makes a country eventually drop into the middle-income trap;5. Learn lessons of narrowing income gap by comparing the income distribution of developed and developing countries, in order to provide a reference for our country; finally, analyze the potentiality of our country to successfully overcome middle income trap from perspective of income distribution.
In order to reach that objective, this paper mainly examines impact of income distribution on different process of economic growth and discusses the relationship between income distribution and middle-income trap according to the principles of "coordination of theoretical model and empirical analysis","echo of qualitative and quantitative analysis","integration of horizontal analysis and longitudinal comparison", and "combination of theoretical and policy research", and based on theories of income distribution and economic growth. Specifically, using the World Development Indicators (WDI) provided by World Band, this paper sets sample standard on the basis of research objectives, apply to some econometrics methods such as GMM, Probit and Logit, analyzes the relationship between income distribution and middle income trap, discusses determines of middle income trap, and analyze the possibility of our country across the "middle-income trap".
The main conclusions are as follows:
First, the paper finds that although there are several reasons to explain why some countries drop into middle-income trap, yet income distribution is the most critical and important. By comparing the different income distribution situations of developed and developing countries during middle-income periods, the conclusion is drawn that Gini coefficient of countries that are still caught in middle income trap is above0.47and even higher, while that of countries that are successful is between0.25and0.37. With mathematical model and WDI data, this paper confirms that the distribution of income and economic growth to follow the general principle of the inverted U-shaped relationship, but the relationship between them at different stages of economic development is different. It is uncertain to lower middle-income countries, negative to upper middle-income countries, and positive to higher income countries.
Secondly, this paper investigates the factors of affecting a country drops into middle income trap by comparing the economic indicators of different countries and binary models. The results show that the larger Gini coefficient, the higher probability a country is caught by middle income trap. The more R&D input and the higher levels of human capital, the likelihood that a country successfully joined into the ranks of developed countries and the coordination of industrialization and urbanization is helpful to overcome middle income trap.
Third, analyzing the transmission mechanism of how income distribution leads to a country in the middle trap for a long time, this article was found that those countries with a lower Gini coefficient or successfully entered the high-income economies have sound social stability and a low homicide rate, while the economies of those caught in the middle-income trap is just the opposite. This suggests that the higher the social stability index is, the effect of the distribution of income through social stability on economic growth is positive, the higher the rate of economic growth is, and vice versa; On the other hand, the worse the social security situation is, indicating that the effect of income distribution through social law and order on economic growth will be hindered. Therefore, it is necessary to comprehensively improve the social stability. Specificlly, there are six ways, such as increasing the voice and accountability, enhancing government efficiency, improving the quality of execution of laws and regulations, adhering to the rule of law, intensifying the fight against corruption efforts, ect.
This paper may have innovations in the following aspects:
(1) This paper attempts to discuss the relationship between the income distribution and middle-income trap, expounds the basic situation of the countries in the middle-income period, and in-depth analyze the impacts of income distribution on middle-income trap, the common factors affecting income distribution, as well as measures taken by other countries.
(2) According to the research purpose, the paper sets sample selection standard. With the data resource from WDI, this paper makes an econometric proof of the relationship between income distribution and middle income; meanwhile, the paper uses the binary models to explain the factors affecting a country fall into middle income trap.
故本文以“收入分配与中等收入陷阱的关系”为题,着重围绕以下几个问题展开研究：1.弄清中等收入陷阱的特征和本质；2.探究落入中等收入陷阱的原因；3.理清收入分配与中等收入陷阱的关系；4.分析收入分配影响—国最终落入中等收入陷阱的机制；5.通过对比陷入中等收入国家与成功跨越中等收入陷阱国家的收入分配基本情况,借鉴这些国家解决收入分配问题的经验,为我国成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”提供参考；最后,基于收入分配视角,对我国面临“中等收入陷阱”进行现实性分析。
为实现上述目标,本文遵循理论分析与实证分析相配合、定性分析与定量分析相呼应,横向分析与纵向比较相融合以及理论研究与政策研究相结合等原则,借鉴收入分配与经济增长的经典理论,考察了收入分配在不同经济发展阶段的影响,探讨了收入分配与“中等收入陷阱”的关系及传导机制和机理。本文主要做了以下工作：运用世界银行提供的数据,按照研究目的,设定样本选择标准,同时采用广义矩估计、Probit和Logit二元选择模型等计量经济学方法,分析了收入分配与中等收入陷阱的关系以及中等收入陷阱影响因素,并对我国跨越“中等收入陷阱”的可能性进行现实分析。
本文的主要研究结论如下：
第一,本文对“中等收入陷阱”特征事实进行陈述后,认为虽然有多种原因导致一国至今陷入“中等收入陷阱”,但最为关键也最为重要的是收入分配问题。通过对成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”和陷入“中等收入陷阱”国家在中等收入阶段时期的收入分配情况进行对比分析后,发现同时期成功国家的基尼系数在0.25-0.37之间,陷入国家的基尼系数都在0.47以上,甚至接近0.6。在随后的数理模型中,利用世界银行的各国宏观经济数据,借助动态面板模型,证实收入分配与经济增长遵循“倒U型”关系的一般原理,但在不同发展阶段,二者的关系不同。在中上等收入阶段,收入分配与经济增长存在负向关系；而在高收入阶段,收入分配与经济增长存在正向关系。
第二,本文通过对“中等收入陷阱”国家的各项经济指标的考察,运用二元选择模型,考察了影响一国至今在中等收入阶段徘徊的原因。结果显示,基尼系数越大,陷入“中等收入陷阱”的概率越高；研发投入越多和人力资本程度越高,则顺利渡过“中等收入陷阱”的可能性越大,而工业化进程和城市化水平的提高也有助于跨越“中等收入陷阱”。
第三,本文在分析收入分配如何导致一国长期陷入中等收入陷阱阶段的传导机制中发现,那些具有较低基尼系数或者成功步入高收入的经济体,其社会稳定程度较高,每十万人口中故意谋杀犯罪率也非常低,而那些陷入中等收入陷阱的经济体则恰好相反。这表明,社会稳定综合指数越高,收入分配通过社会稳定对经济增长的效果越显著,经济增长率越高,反之亦然;另一方面,社会治安状况越差,表明收入分配通过影响社会治安导致经济增长越会受到阻碍。所以,可以从增加话语权和问责制、加强政府效率、提高法规执行品质、坚持法治、加大防治腐败力度等六个方面提高社会稳定的综合情况,从而保持收入分配对经济增长的正向作用。
本文的创新可能有：
(1)本文试图以收入分配与中等收入陷阱的关系为主要研究脉络,系统地阐述了各国在中等收入阶段的收入分配基本情况,并深入分析了收入分配对中等收入陷阱的传导机制以及各国为缩小收入分配差距采取的各项措施。
(2)本文运用世界银行数据库,按照研究目的,设定了研究样本的筛选原则,对收入分配与中等收入陷阱的关系进行计量方法上的科学论证,并说明影响一国落入“中等收入陷阱的原因。
The income per capita of China is$1000in2001and has increased to$4432. Nowadays, China is facing "middle income trap". The key point of how to avoid the "middle income trap" for China is the income inequality gap.
Therefore, this paper is focused on the relationship of income distribution and middle-income trap. It emphases on the following issues:1. Clarify the characteristics and nature of the middle-income trap;2. Explore the reasons for falling into the middle-income trap;3.clarify the relationship between income distribution and middle-income trap;4. Analyze the mechanisms and channels of how income distribution makes a country eventually drop into the middle-income trap;5. Learn lessons of narrowing income gap by comparing the income distribution of developed and developing countries, in order to provide a reference for our country; finally, analyze the potentiality of our country to successfully overcome middle income trap from perspective of income distribution.
In order to reach that objective, this paper mainly examines impact of income distribution on different process of economic growth and discusses the relationship between income distribution and middle-income trap according to the principles of "coordination of theoretical model and empirical analysis","echo of qualitative and quantitative analysis","integration of horizontal analysis and longitudinal comparison", and "combination of theoretical and policy research", and based on theories of income distribution and economic growth. Specifically, using the World Development Indicators (WDI) provided by World Band, this paper sets sample standard on the basis of research objectives, apply to some econometrics methods such as GMM, Probit and Logit, analyzes the relationship between income distribution and middle income trap, discusses determines of middle income trap, and analyze the possibility of our country across the "middle-income trap".
The main conclusions are as follows:
First, the paper finds that although there are several reasons to explain why some countries drop into middle-income trap, yet income distribution is the most critical and important. By comparing the different income distribution situations of developed and developing countries during middle-income periods, the conclusion is drawn that Gini coefficient of countries that are still caught in middle income trap is above0.47and even higher, while that of countries that are successful is between0.25and0.37. With mathematical model and WDI data, this paper confirms that the distribution of income and economic growth to follow the general principle of the inverted U-shaped relationship, but the relationship between them at different stages of economic development is different. It is uncertain to lower middle-income countries, negative to upper middle-income countries, and positive to higher income countries.
Secondly, this paper investigates the factors of affecting a country drops into middle income trap by comparing the economic indicators of different countries and binary models. The results show that the larger Gini coefficient, the higher probability a country is caught by middle income trap. The more R&D input and the higher levels of human capital, the likelihood that a country successfully joined into the ranks of developed countries and the coordination of industrialization and urbanization is helpful to overcome middle income trap.
Third, analyzing the transmission mechanism of how income distribution leads to a country in the middle trap for a long time, this article was found that those countries with a lower Gini coefficient or successfully entered the high-income economies have sound social stability and a low homicide rate, while the economies of those caught in the middle-income trap is just the opposite. This suggests that the higher the social stability index is, the effect of the distribution of income through social stability on economic growth is positive, the higher the rate of economic growth is, and vice versa; On the other hand, the worse the social security situation is, indicating that the effect of income distribution through social law and order on economic growth will be hindered. Therefore, it is necessary to comprehensively improve the social stability. Specificlly, there are six ways, such as increasing the voice and accountability, enhancing government efficiency, improving the quality of execution of laws and regulations, adhering to the rule of law, intensifying the fight against corruption efforts, ect.
This paper may have innovations in the following aspects:
(1) This paper attempts to discuss the relationship between the income distribution and middle-income trap, expounds the basic situation of the countries in the middle-income period, and in-depth analyze the impacts of income distribution on middle-income trap, the common factors affecting income distribution, as well as measures taken by other countries.
(2) According to the research purpose, the paper sets sample selection standard. With the data resource from WDI, this paper makes an econometric proof of the relationship between income distribution and middle income; meanwhile, the paper uses the binary models to explain the factors affecting a country fall into middle income trap.
引文
1 亚当·斯密.国富论.樊冰译.山西经济出版社[M].第八章：劳动工资.38页.
2 亚当·斯密.国富论.樊冰译.山西经济出版社[M].第九章：资本利润.52页.
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