我国粮食贸易中农业资源要素流研究
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摘要
我国是农业资源特别是淡水资源和耕地资源极度贫乏的国家,由于资源问题而引发的粮食安全已经成为实现可持续发展的主要制约因素之一。保障粮食安全,实现粮食供需战略平衡和国内的基本自给,是任何时候都不可动摇的。同时,人多地少的基本国情,又决定了适度进口粮食是必要的。因此,研究粮食贸易中的农业资源要素流的规律及特征,探索节约农业资源的路径,特别是在国际经济分工环境和粮食市场框架下,探索优化配置农业资源的路径和模式,对保障我国粮食安全具有重要理论价值和现实意义。
本文正是基于上述背景和判断,以比较优势、产业内贸易等相关理论为指导,从我国粮食贸易及农业资源利用现状出发,运用实证分析和规范分析相结合为主的方法,对粮食贸易中所隐含的虚拟水、虚拟耕地及虚拟养分三种资源要素流动和转移规律进行系统分析。在此基础上,从实物量和价值量两个角度,单因素和综合分析两个方面对农业资源要素流比较优势与粮食贸易结构进行整合分析,并根据虚拟资源理论和整合分析的结论提出相应的对策建议。
按照逻辑关系与结构,将论文规划为三部分,共八章:
第一部分(包括第一、二章)为研究方案设计及理论推理和分析部分。本部分主要阐述了本文的选题背景、研究目的和意义,对国内外相关研究动态进行较为系统客观的评述。在此基础上,明确了本文的研究思路、确定了研究方法、设计出本文的创新点。从经济学及国际贸易视角,界定了虚拟水、虚拟耕地、虚拟养分等虚拟资源的内涵与外延,构建了以比较优势原理和资源禀赋理论为基础的粮食贸易与农业资源要素流分析的理论框架。
第二部分(包括第三至第七章)为基础分析和系统分析部分,是本文研究的重点部分。首先,运用定性与定量相结合的方法,对我国四种主要粮食作物的生产和对外贸易状况进行系统了分析,并对我国水资源、耕地资源、养分资源等三种农业资源要素的利用现状、效率及特征进行归纳和总结。其次,在确定四种粮食作物单位虚拟资源含量的基础上,根据我国四种粮食作物对外贸易的实物量,分别测定四种粮食作物对外贸易中所隐含的虚拟水、虚拟耕地、虚拟养分的贸易量,并对这三种虚拟资源的贡献进行分析。再次,根据第三、四、五、六章的分析结果,从实物量和价值量结合角度,分别从单因素和综合因素两方面对农业资源要素流比较优势与粮食贸易结构整合进行分析。
第三部分(第八章)为结论和建议部分。经过理论分析与实证研究,本文认为基于我国农业资源要素流比较优势原理,我国目前的粮食贸易结构基本是整合的,而且是合理的。其中大豆、大米和玉米的农业资源要素流比较优势与粮食贸易结构是整合的,整合度分别80%、86.67%、86.67%。小麦的农业资源要素流比较优势与粮食贸易结构是不整合的,整合度仅为26.67%。
论文的主要研究结论为:一是从实物量角度,运用灰色关联度模型评价、得出各虚拟资源贸易量对粮食贸易进口量的影响次序为:虚拟养分(0.8849)>虚拟水>(0.7001)虚拟耕地(0.6778);各虚拟资源贸易量对粮食贸易出口量的影响次序为:虚拟养分(0.9097)>虚拟耕地(0.7018)>虚拟水(0.6766)。表明,我国在粮食进出口时应把虚拟养分资源标准作为第一标准。二是从价值量角度,运用固定效应变截矩面板数据模型,得出我国粮食贸易的合理结构应为进口大豆,出口大米、小麦和玉米。基于综合虚拟资源因素单位出口创汇贡献角度,三种出口作物的出口顺序依次为小麦(1732.26)、大米(1406.99)、玉米(449.50)。针对这些结论,本文提出了4项具体建议。
China is bearing an extreme dearth of agricultural resources, and the drastic shortage of water and cultivated land resources and the effected food safety problems turned to be major restraining factors to the sustainable development of China. The self-evident in-destructive faith at any moment for guaranteeing food safety and balancing crops demand and production is basically to achieve self-sufficiency. Meanwhile, the national condition of large population and limited land urges the necessity for favorable import of overseas grains. Thus, the analysis of agricultural resources elements flow in grain foreign trade is of great theoretical constructive value and practical significance for saving agricultural resources and guaranteeing food safety in China.
Guided by the related principles in international trade and comparative advantage law and integrated with factual situation of grain foreign trade and agri-resources utility in China, this paper conducted systematic research on virtual water, virtual land and virtual nutrition trade in grain foreign trade applying comprehensive methods of empirical and normative analysis, qualitative and quantitative research, economic and management research; it further illustrated confluence univariate and aggregate analysis on agri-resources elements flow comparative advantage and grain foreign trade construction from two variables of physical quantity and quantity of value; and conclusively proposed correspondent policy suggestions based on research findings of virtual resources theory and confluence analysis.
Eight chapters of the paper are generated into three parts according to logic and structure, they are:
Part I (chapter 1 to 2) diagramed research schema and founded theoretical basis. It focused on the illustration of topic selection, research aims and significance, completely and concretely reviewed the related research status home and abroad, diagramed the research schema, research methodology and major innovative work of the dissertation, pronounced scientifically the definition and features of virtual resources including virtual water, virtual land and virtual nutrition with normative analysis, and founded theoretical structure to the analysis of agricultural resources elements flow in grain foreign trade based on comparative advantage law and resources endowment principles.
Part II (chapter 3 to 7), the keynote of the paper, is for fundamental and systematic analysis. Firstly, this part applied qualitative and quantitative systematic analysis over grain industry in China and the production and foreign trade of four major crops, summarized the utilizing situations and features of agri-resources elements including water, land and nutrition resources; furthermore, based on the confirmed virtual resources content per unit of the four major crops, the paper figured out the trade volume of virtual water, land and resources inherited in the foreign trade of the four major crops respectively and analyzed the contributive effects of the three virtual resources. To conclude, this part conducted confluence univariate and aggregate analysis on agri-resources elements flow comparative advantage and grain foreign trade construction from two variables of physical quantity and quantity of value founded by the analysis findings in chapter 3,4,5and 6.
Part III(chapter 8) is to draw sound conclusion and propose countermeasures. From the theoretical analysis and empirical study above, the paper demonstrated that the grain foreign trade structure in China by far is conformable and reasonable integrated with the comparative advantage law of agriculture resources elements flow. Among them soybean, maize and rice boasted of conformable structure between their agri-resources elements flow and grain trade with their integration to be 80%, 86.67% and 86.67% respectively, while wheat encountered a low confluence structure of 26.67%. major research findings concluded include: firstly, the physical quantity grey reational analysis model suggested that the effect of virtual nutrition (0.8849) and virtual water (0.7001) trade volume to grain import are higher than that of virtual land (0.6778), and the effect to the export of virtual nutrition (0.9097), virtual land (0.7018) higher than that of virtual water (0.6766) . The model ultimately advocated the priority of virtual nutrition resources criterion in grain import and export in China. Secondly, the value quantity fixed effect intercept panel data model attained that the reasonable import and of soybean and export of rice, wheat and maize should be the grain trade guiding structure, and the unit foreign exchange-earning capacity of the virtual resources proclaimed more wheat (1732.26) and rice (1406.99) export should be undertaken than that of maize (449.50). Four concrete countermeasures were also recommended in the paper strictly following the research findings.
本文正是基于上述背景和判断,以比较优势、产业内贸易等相关理论为指导,从我国粮食贸易及农业资源利用现状出发,运用实证分析和规范分析相结合为主的方法,对粮食贸易中所隐含的虚拟水、虚拟耕地及虚拟养分三种资源要素流动和转移规律进行系统分析。在此基础上,从实物量和价值量两个角度,单因素和综合分析两个方面对农业资源要素流比较优势与粮食贸易结构进行整合分析,并根据虚拟资源理论和整合分析的结论提出相应的对策建议。
按照逻辑关系与结构,将论文规划为三部分,共八章:
第一部分(包括第一、二章)为研究方案设计及理论推理和分析部分。本部分主要阐述了本文的选题背景、研究目的和意义,对国内外相关研究动态进行较为系统客观的评述。在此基础上,明确了本文的研究思路、确定了研究方法、设计出本文的创新点。从经济学及国际贸易视角,界定了虚拟水、虚拟耕地、虚拟养分等虚拟资源的内涵与外延,构建了以比较优势原理和资源禀赋理论为基础的粮食贸易与农业资源要素流分析的理论框架。
第二部分(包括第三至第七章)为基础分析和系统分析部分,是本文研究的重点部分。首先,运用定性与定量相结合的方法,对我国四种主要粮食作物的生产和对外贸易状况进行系统了分析,并对我国水资源、耕地资源、养分资源等三种农业资源要素的利用现状、效率及特征进行归纳和总结。其次,在确定四种粮食作物单位虚拟资源含量的基础上,根据我国四种粮食作物对外贸易的实物量,分别测定四种粮食作物对外贸易中所隐含的虚拟水、虚拟耕地、虚拟养分的贸易量,并对这三种虚拟资源的贡献进行分析。再次,根据第三、四、五、六章的分析结果,从实物量和价值量结合角度,分别从单因素和综合因素两方面对农业资源要素流比较优势与粮食贸易结构整合进行分析。
第三部分(第八章)为结论和建议部分。经过理论分析与实证研究,本文认为基于我国农业资源要素流比较优势原理,我国目前的粮食贸易结构基本是整合的,而且是合理的。其中大豆、大米和玉米的农业资源要素流比较优势与粮食贸易结构是整合的,整合度分别80%、86.67%、86.67%。小麦的农业资源要素流比较优势与粮食贸易结构是不整合的,整合度仅为26.67%。
论文的主要研究结论为:一是从实物量角度,运用灰色关联度模型评价、得出各虚拟资源贸易量对粮食贸易进口量的影响次序为:虚拟养分(0.8849)>虚拟水>(0.7001)虚拟耕地(0.6778);各虚拟资源贸易量对粮食贸易出口量的影响次序为:虚拟养分(0.9097)>虚拟耕地(0.7018)>虚拟水(0.6766)。表明,我国在粮食进出口时应把虚拟养分资源标准作为第一标准。二是从价值量角度,运用固定效应变截矩面板数据模型,得出我国粮食贸易的合理结构应为进口大豆,出口大米、小麦和玉米。基于综合虚拟资源因素单位出口创汇贡献角度,三种出口作物的出口顺序依次为小麦(1732.26)、大米(1406.99)、玉米(449.50)。针对这些结论,本文提出了4项具体建议。
China is bearing an extreme dearth of agricultural resources, and the drastic shortage of water and cultivated land resources and the effected food safety problems turned to be major restraining factors to the sustainable development of China. The self-evident in-destructive faith at any moment for guaranteeing food safety and balancing crops demand and production is basically to achieve self-sufficiency. Meanwhile, the national condition of large population and limited land urges the necessity for favorable import of overseas grains. Thus, the analysis of agricultural resources elements flow in grain foreign trade is of great theoretical constructive value and practical significance for saving agricultural resources and guaranteeing food safety in China.
Guided by the related principles in international trade and comparative advantage law and integrated with factual situation of grain foreign trade and agri-resources utility in China, this paper conducted systematic research on virtual water, virtual land and virtual nutrition trade in grain foreign trade applying comprehensive methods of empirical and normative analysis, qualitative and quantitative research, economic and management research; it further illustrated confluence univariate and aggregate analysis on agri-resources elements flow comparative advantage and grain foreign trade construction from two variables of physical quantity and quantity of value; and conclusively proposed correspondent policy suggestions based on research findings of virtual resources theory and confluence analysis.
Eight chapters of the paper are generated into three parts according to logic and structure, they are:
Part I (chapter 1 to 2) diagramed research schema and founded theoretical basis. It focused on the illustration of topic selection, research aims and significance, completely and concretely reviewed the related research status home and abroad, diagramed the research schema, research methodology and major innovative work of the dissertation, pronounced scientifically the definition and features of virtual resources including virtual water, virtual land and virtual nutrition with normative analysis, and founded theoretical structure to the analysis of agricultural resources elements flow in grain foreign trade based on comparative advantage law and resources endowment principles.
Part II (chapter 3 to 7), the keynote of the paper, is for fundamental and systematic analysis. Firstly, this part applied qualitative and quantitative systematic analysis over grain industry in China and the production and foreign trade of four major crops, summarized the utilizing situations and features of agri-resources elements including water, land and nutrition resources; furthermore, based on the confirmed virtual resources content per unit of the four major crops, the paper figured out the trade volume of virtual water, land and resources inherited in the foreign trade of the four major crops respectively and analyzed the contributive effects of the three virtual resources. To conclude, this part conducted confluence univariate and aggregate analysis on agri-resources elements flow comparative advantage and grain foreign trade construction from two variables of physical quantity and quantity of value founded by the analysis findings in chapter 3,4,5and 6.
Part III(chapter 8) is to draw sound conclusion and propose countermeasures. From the theoretical analysis and empirical study above, the paper demonstrated that the grain foreign trade structure in China by far is conformable and reasonable integrated with the comparative advantage law of agriculture resources elements flow. Among them soybean, maize and rice boasted of conformable structure between their agri-resources elements flow and grain trade with their integration to be 80%, 86.67% and 86.67% respectively, while wheat encountered a low confluence structure of 26.67%. major research findings concluded include: firstly, the physical quantity grey reational analysis model suggested that the effect of virtual nutrition (0.8849) and virtual water (0.7001) trade volume to grain import are higher than that of virtual land (0.6778), and the effect to the export of virtual nutrition (0.9097), virtual land (0.7018) higher than that of virtual water (0.6766) . The model ultimately advocated the priority of virtual nutrition resources criterion in grain import and export in China. Secondly, the value quantity fixed effect intercept panel data model attained that the reasonable import and of soybean and export of rice, wheat and maize should be the grain trade guiding structure, and the unit foreign exchange-earning capacity of the virtual resources proclaimed more wheat (1732.26) and rice (1406.99) export should be undertaken than that of maize (449.50). Four concrete countermeasures were also recommended in the paper strictly following the research findings.
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