供应链突发事件产生机理与扩散机理研究
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摘要
各种类型的突发事件频繁发生,供应链如同其它市场组织一样,也不可避免地受到突发事件的侵袭,一旦供应链企业遭受突发事件,其影响往往会顺着供应链条扩散给其他企业,进而影响整个网络,对供应链的正常运行造成极大损失。国内外学者对供应链管理从不同角度进行了研究,但到目前为止,关于供应链突发事件的研究大多集中在应急管理及如何建立供应链协调应对机制等领域,对供应链突发事件的产生机理与扩散机理缺乏深入的研究。为了更好地管理供应链,减少突发事件对供应链和社会带来的损失,已经成为现代供应链管理急需解决的一个重问题。因此,致力于供应链突发事件产生机理与扩散机理的研究,可以完善供应链突发事件的机理模型,丰富供应链管理理论体系,为供应链突发事件应急管理提供理论参考和行动依据。
以系统论的观点为主要理论基础,将供应链作为一个大系统进行研究,运用案例研究方法对供应链突发事件案例归纳总结提炼出突发事件的产生机理与扩散机理,运用系统动力学仿真实验方法分析供应链突发事件产生与扩散的影响表现,通过研究得出突发事件产生与扩散的特征,根据对突发事件产生与扩散的仿真分析得到供应链突发事件的应对措施,并通过系统动力学仿真实验验证采用措施的有效性。
对与供应链突发事件相近的概念进行辨析,分析供应链突发事件的涵义,并根据实际案例归纳总结了供应链突发事件的特点和分类。
在机理研究方面,首先从供应链突发事件产生和扩散的原因、方式和过程等方面分析了供应链突发事件的产生机理和扩散机理,并依据统计案例建立供应链突发事件致因要素识别模型,对不同行业供应链突发事件的致因要素特征进行识别。其次运用系统动力学仿真实验进行分析,在供应链突发事件产生阶段,通过仿真模拟突发事件对供应链订单积压和市场需求的作用下供应链订单积压、库存、成本和利润的变化情况,对比无应急措施、采取应急措施及缩短应急时间后突发事件对供应链的影响情况的变化；在供应链突发事件扩散阶段,模拟突发事件扩散的行为、突发事件在供应链中的扩散强度的变化、以及信息延迟对扩散强度的影响,模拟突发事件对供应链扩散的持续时间的影响以及信息延迟后扩散时间长度的变化。最终根据模拟结果得出供应链突发事件产生阶段和扩散阶段的主要特征。
针对供应链突发事件产生机理和扩散机理的分析,提出协同应对策略和信息共享策略为有效应对供应链突发事件的策略。建立了基于系统动力学的协同策略仿真模型与信息共享策略仿真模型,通过仿真分析和对比,证明了两种策略的有效性。
When various emergencies occur frequently, supply chain as other market organizations, also be raided inevitably by emergency, once enterprise in the supply chain suffered from emergency, the influence of which tend to spread to other enterprise along the supply chain, then affect the entire network, which will cause great losses to normal operation of the whole supply chain. Domestic and overseas scholars have studied supply chain management from different angles, but so far, most studies about supply chain emergency focused on disruption management and how to establish coordination mechanism, etc, lack the further research on formation and diffusion mechanism of emergency in supply chain. In order to manage supply chain better, a heavy problem that modern supply chain management needed to resolve is reduce the losses that from emergency to enterprise in supply chain and to social. Therefore, research on formation and diffusion mechanism of emergency in supply chain can help improve the mechanism model of supply chain emergency, rich supply chain management theory system, and instruct the actual disruption management of supply chain, which has important theoretical and practical significance.
The research based on system theory, study supply chain as a large system, and summary the formation and diffusion mechanism of emergency in supply chain by use the case study method to make a induction from supply chain emergency case, using the system dynamics simulation experiment method to analyse the influence and performance of the formation and diffusion mechanism of emergency in supply chain, through research to summary the characteristics of which and put disruption measures.
Discriminate several confusable concepts with emergency in supply chain, then according to case generalizes the characteristics and classification of emergency in supply chain.
In the mechanism research aspects, firstly, from the causes, style and process of emergency in supply chain to analyze the formation and diffusion mechanism. According to statistics case build the causation factor recognition model for emergency in supply chain, to recognize the causation factor characteristics of emergency in supply chain in different industry. Secondly, use system dynamics simulation analyze the changes in formation stage of supply chain emergency, which through simulated under the action of emergency affect on order backlog of supply chain and the market demand, to find the changes of supply chain order backlog, inventory, cost and profit, by contrast without disruption measures, take disruption measures and shortening the time after emergency events on supply chain to study the effect of changes. In the diffusion stage of emergency in supply chain, simulate the behavior of diffusion, the changes of diffusion and effects of information delay on the diffusion strength, simulate the effect on diffusion time of supply chain emergency and the changes of diffusion time after happened information delay. Based on the simulation results, obtain the main feature in formation and diffusion phase of supply chain emergency.
Aimed at the analysis of formation and diffusion mechanism, proposed collaborative strategy and information sharing strategy as effectively disruption strategies deal with emergency in supply chain. Established coordination strategy simulation model and information sharing strategy simulation model based on system dynamics, through the simulation analysis and contrast, proved the validity of two strategies.
以系统论的观点为主要理论基础,将供应链作为一个大系统进行研究,运用案例研究方法对供应链突发事件案例归纳总结提炼出突发事件的产生机理与扩散机理,运用系统动力学仿真实验方法分析供应链突发事件产生与扩散的影响表现,通过研究得出突发事件产生与扩散的特征,根据对突发事件产生与扩散的仿真分析得到供应链突发事件的应对措施,并通过系统动力学仿真实验验证采用措施的有效性。
对与供应链突发事件相近的概念进行辨析,分析供应链突发事件的涵义,并根据实际案例归纳总结了供应链突发事件的特点和分类。
在机理研究方面,首先从供应链突发事件产生和扩散的原因、方式和过程等方面分析了供应链突发事件的产生机理和扩散机理,并依据统计案例建立供应链突发事件致因要素识别模型,对不同行业供应链突发事件的致因要素特征进行识别。其次运用系统动力学仿真实验进行分析,在供应链突发事件产生阶段,通过仿真模拟突发事件对供应链订单积压和市场需求的作用下供应链订单积压、库存、成本和利润的变化情况,对比无应急措施、采取应急措施及缩短应急时间后突发事件对供应链的影响情况的变化；在供应链突发事件扩散阶段,模拟突发事件扩散的行为、突发事件在供应链中的扩散强度的变化、以及信息延迟对扩散强度的影响,模拟突发事件对供应链扩散的持续时间的影响以及信息延迟后扩散时间长度的变化。最终根据模拟结果得出供应链突发事件产生阶段和扩散阶段的主要特征。
针对供应链突发事件产生机理和扩散机理的分析,提出协同应对策略和信息共享策略为有效应对供应链突发事件的策略。建立了基于系统动力学的协同策略仿真模型与信息共享策略仿真模型,通过仿真分析和对比,证明了两种策略的有效性。
When various emergencies occur frequently, supply chain as other market organizations, also be raided inevitably by emergency, once enterprise in the supply chain suffered from emergency, the influence of which tend to spread to other enterprise along the supply chain, then affect the entire network, which will cause great losses to normal operation of the whole supply chain. Domestic and overseas scholars have studied supply chain management from different angles, but so far, most studies about supply chain emergency focused on disruption management and how to establish coordination mechanism, etc, lack the further research on formation and diffusion mechanism of emergency in supply chain. In order to manage supply chain better, a heavy problem that modern supply chain management needed to resolve is reduce the losses that from emergency to enterprise in supply chain and to social. Therefore, research on formation and diffusion mechanism of emergency in supply chain can help improve the mechanism model of supply chain emergency, rich supply chain management theory system, and instruct the actual disruption management of supply chain, which has important theoretical and practical significance.
The research based on system theory, study supply chain as a large system, and summary the formation and diffusion mechanism of emergency in supply chain by use the case study method to make a induction from supply chain emergency case, using the system dynamics simulation experiment method to analyse the influence and performance of the formation and diffusion mechanism of emergency in supply chain, through research to summary the characteristics of which and put disruption measures.
Discriminate several confusable concepts with emergency in supply chain, then according to case generalizes the characteristics and classification of emergency in supply chain.
In the mechanism research aspects, firstly, from the causes, style and process of emergency in supply chain to analyze the formation and diffusion mechanism. According to statistics case build the causation factor recognition model for emergency in supply chain, to recognize the causation factor characteristics of emergency in supply chain in different industry. Secondly, use system dynamics simulation analyze the changes in formation stage of supply chain emergency, which through simulated under the action of emergency affect on order backlog of supply chain and the market demand, to find the changes of supply chain order backlog, inventory, cost and profit, by contrast without disruption measures, take disruption measures and shortening the time after emergency events on supply chain to study the effect of changes. In the diffusion stage of emergency in supply chain, simulate the behavior of diffusion, the changes of diffusion and effects of information delay on the diffusion strength, simulate the effect on diffusion time of supply chain emergency and the changes of diffusion time after happened information delay. Based on the simulation results, obtain the main feature in formation and diffusion phase of supply chain emergency.
Aimed at the analysis of formation and diffusion mechanism, proposed collaborative strategy and information sharing strategy as effectively disruption strategies deal with emergency in supply chain. Established coordination strategy simulation model and information sharing strategy simulation model based on system dynamics, through the simulation analysis and contrast, proved the validity of two strategies.
引文
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