移动商务风险要素分析与规避策略研究
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摘要
随着移动终端设备的发展和普及,包括移动支付、移动股市、移动银行与移动办公等在内的各种移动服务开始走入大众生活。而面对移动商务经营环境的不断变化,每一项新移动服务的开发和经营都面临着如何在价值链层面开展合作、服务推广成本核算和未来收益分析等一系列精细化风险评估过程。虽然目前文献中对移动商务所涉及各方面的风险有一部分研究工作,但缺乏对移动商务进行系统风险评估、模拟和规避的流程和框架。
在总结前人对移动商务风险研究的基础上,系统分析了移动商务的各类风险要素,将模糊推理技术、实物期权理论、供应链风险管理理论、投资组合理论应用于移动商务领域,为移动商务风险评估与规避引入了新的工具和方法,实现了学术研究的跨领域交叉。主要工作和创新点具体如下：
首先运用Delphi法调查得出了移动商务风险的10大要素,按照SCP模型将风险要素划分为宏观环境、行业环境和企业运营三个层面,其中宏观环境风险包括经济环境风险、政策环境风险、技术环境风险和文化环境风险,产业环境风险包括同行业竞争风险、服务提供商合作风险和设备制造商合作风险,企业运营风险包括成本管理风险、内部融合风险和客户流失风险。对各风险要素按照重要性程度进行了排序并画出了风险坐标图,并与安永全球电信业风险审计报告的风险要素进行了对比。
在风险要素调查的基础上,运用模糊认知影响图构建了移动商务风险要素关联模型。分析了短期价格策略、短期促销策略、网络建设投入和长期价格策略的联合风险控制效果。在模糊认知影响图的专家经验提取和模拟分析基础上,得出了如何有效平衡短期收益、短期风险、长期收益和长期风险的四类有代表性的风险控制策略。
借鉴投资组合理论,提出了在风险对冲条件下不同风险特征的移动服务组合优化模型。按照风险是否可分散将移动商务风险划分为系统风险和非系统风险,分析了不同移动服务的消费者采纳、定价方式、成本构成和生命周期特征等特征差异,基于风险分散原理构建了移动服务组合对冲优化模型,实现了不同移动服务风险相互间更好的自然对冲。得出了不同风险容忍度下面移动服务组合预期收益的变化曲线,为运营商和服务提供商提供了移动服务组合的有效边界。
在移动商务价值链合作层面具体的风险规避策略上,运用实物期权理论提出了移动商务风险分担的帕累托改进方法。通过实物期权协议,运营商能够购买服务提供商所开发移动服务未来收益的期权,从而实现了根据市场变化对移动服务生命周期内收益和风险价值链双方分担比例的动态调整,因此能够有效降低运营商和服务提供商的价值链合作风险、市场前景风险和成本管理风险。最后通过手机电视实例进行了风险规避有效性验证和灵敏度分析。
As the development and popularization of the mobile terminal equipment, various mobile service began to come into people's life, including mobile payment, mobile marketing, mobile banking and mobile office automation, But when facing with the constant changing of business environment, the development and management of every new mobile service is accompanied with a series of risk problems, such as the value chain cooperation, market promotion cost and forecasting the future profit. The current literatures have studied some aspects of mobile commerce risk. However, still we could find the lack of systematic analysis, evaluation and simulation framework for mobile commerce risk management.
Based on the literature review of mobile commerce risk analysis, this study conducted a systematic analysis of all kinds of mobile commerce risk factors, with the application of the fuzzy reasoning method, real option theory, supply chain risk management theory and portfolio theory in mobile commerce fields, introducing new tools and methods for the mobile commerce risk assessment and avoidance, achieved the interdisciplinary intersect research for mobile commerce. The main work and highlights of this research can be listed as follows:
First, this paper used the Delphi method to examine the top 10 risk factors of mobile commerce, which can be categorized into three dimensions of macro-environment risk, industrial risk and operational risk according to the SCP model. The dimensions of macro-environment risk are economic risk, political risk, technological risk and social & cultural risk; The dimension of industrial risk includes competition with other MNOs, cooperation with SPs and cooperation with manufacturers; The operational risk dimension includes cost management risk, consolidation risk and market risk. Then we calculated the risk exposure and risk matrix for each risk factor, comparing with Ernst & Young global telecommunication risk report.
Based on the survey results of risk factors, using fuzzy cognitive influence diagram, this paper constructed a correlation analysis for mobile commerce risk factors. The risk control tactics using the combination of short-term price strategy, short-term promotion strategy, network construction strategy and long-term price strategy. Using the fuzzy cognitive influence diagram expert experience are extracted and simulation analysis are conducted, from this four types of typical risk control strategy are concluded to make a balance between short-term profit, short-term risk, long-term profit and the long-term risk.
According to the portfolio theory, this paper categorized the mobile service into four types. According to whether it is diversifiable the mobile commerce risk could be separated into system risk and idiosyncratic risk, we analyzed the features of different mobile service from consumer adoption, pricing, the cost composition and life-cycle characteristic. Then we proposed a mobile service portfolio optimization model based on the risk diversification methodology, thus the best hedging of risk factors can be realized, the curves of profit under the different risk tolerance for the mobile service combination then can be drawn, providing the theoretical basis for the mobile network operators and service providers to achieve a better mobile service portfolio.
For the specific risk avoidance strategies in the mobile commerce value chain, this paper achieved pareto improvement by the dynamic sharing of mobile commerce risk using real option theory. With the real option contract, the mobile network operators could purchase the option of a mobile service from service providers, thus the dynamic adjustment of returns and risk sharing can be achieved according to market changes in the life cycle of mobile service. So it can effectively reduce the value chain cooperation risk, market risk and cost management risk for both the mobile network operators and service providers. Finally, the risk avoidance effect is proved through mobile TV numerical example and sensitivity analysis is conducted.
在总结前人对移动商务风险研究的基础上,系统分析了移动商务的各类风险要素,将模糊推理技术、实物期权理论、供应链风险管理理论、投资组合理论应用于移动商务领域,为移动商务风险评估与规避引入了新的工具和方法,实现了学术研究的跨领域交叉。主要工作和创新点具体如下：
首先运用Delphi法调查得出了移动商务风险的10大要素,按照SCP模型将风险要素划分为宏观环境、行业环境和企业运营三个层面,其中宏观环境风险包括经济环境风险、政策环境风险、技术环境风险和文化环境风险,产业环境风险包括同行业竞争风险、服务提供商合作风险和设备制造商合作风险,企业运营风险包括成本管理风险、内部融合风险和客户流失风险。对各风险要素按照重要性程度进行了排序并画出了风险坐标图,并与安永全球电信业风险审计报告的风险要素进行了对比。
在风险要素调查的基础上,运用模糊认知影响图构建了移动商务风险要素关联模型。分析了短期价格策略、短期促销策略、网络建设投入和长期价格策略的联合风险控制效果。在模糊认知影响图的专家经验提取和模拟分析基础上,得出了如何有效平衡短期收益、短期风险、长期收益和长期风险的四类有代表性的风险控制策略。
借鉴投资组合理论,提出了在风险对冲条件下不同风险特征的移动服务组合优化模型。按照风险是否可分散将移动商务风险划分为系统风险和非系统风险,分析了不同移动服务的消费者采纳、定价方式、成本构成和生命周期特征等特征差异,基于风险分散原理构建了移动服务组合对冲优化模型,实现了不同移动服务风险相互间更好的自然对冲。得出了不同风险容忍度下面移动服务组合预期收益的变化曲线,为运营商和服务提供商提供了移动服务组合的有效边界。
在移动商务价值链合作层面具体的风险规避策略上,运用实物期权理论提出了移动商务风险分担的帕累托改进方法。通过实物期权协议,运营商能够购买服务提供商所开发移动服务未来收益的期权,从而实现了根据市场变化对移动服务生命周期内收益和风险价值链双方分担比例的动态调整,因此能够有效降低运营商和服务提供商的价值链合作风险、市场前景风险和成本管理风险。最后通过手机电视实例进行了风险规避有效性验证和灵敏度分析。
As the development and popularization of the mobile terminal equipment, various mobile service began to come into people's life, including mobile payment, mobile marketing, mobile banking and mobile office automation, But when facing with the constant changing of business environment, the development and management of every new mobile service is accompanied with a series of risk problems, such as the value chain cooperation, market promotion cost and forecasting the future profit. The current literatures have studied some aspects of mobile commerce risk. However, still we could find the lack of systematic analysis, evaluation and simulation framework for mobile commerce risk management.
Based on the literature review of mobile commerce risk analysis, this study conducted a systematic analysis of all kinds of mobile commerce risk factors, with the application of the fuzzy reasoning method, real option theory, supply chain risk management theory and portfolio theory in mobile commerce fields, introducing new tools and methods for the mobile commerce risk assessment and avoidance, achieved the interdisciplinary intersect research for mobile commerce. The main work and highlights of this research can be listed as follows:
First, this paper used the Delphi method to examine the top 10 risk factors of mobile commerce, which can be categorized into three dimensions of macro-environment risk, industrial risk and operational risk according to the SCP model. The dimensions of macro-environment risk are economic risk, political risk, technological risk and social & cultural risk; The dimension of industrial risk includes competition with other MNOs, cooperation with SPs and cooperation with manufacturers; The operational risk dimension includes cost management risk, consolidation risk and market risk. Then we calculated the risk exposure and risk matrix for each risk factor, comparing with Ernst & Young global telecommunication risk report.
Based on the survey results of risk factors, using fuzzy cognitive influence diagram, this paper constructed a correlation analysis for mobile commerce risk factors. The risk control tactics using the combination of short-term price strategy, short-term promotion strategy, network construction strategy and long-term price strategy. Using the fuzzy cognitive influence diagram expert experience are extracted and simulation analysis are conducted, from this four types of typical risk control strategy are concluded to make a balance between short-term profit, short-term risk, long-term profit and the long-term risk.
According to the portfolio theory, this paper categorized the mobile service into four types. According to whether it is diversifiable the mobile commerce risk could be separated into system risk and idiosyncratic risk, we analyzed the features of different mobile service from consumer adoption, pricing, the cost composition and life-cycle characteristic. Then we proposed a mobile service portfolio optimization model based on the risk diversification methodology, thus the best hedging of risk factors can be realized, the curves of profit under the different risk tolerance for the mobile service combination then can be drawn, providing the theoretical basis for the mobile network operators and service providers to achieve a better mobile service portfolio.
For the specific risk avoidance strategies in the mobile commerce value chain, this paper achieved pareto improvement by the dynamic sharing of mobile commerce risk using real option theory. With the real option contract, the mobile network operators could purchase the option of a mobile service from service providers, thus the dynamic adjustment of returns and risk sharing can be achieved according to market changes in the life cycle of mobile service. So it can effectively reduce the value chain cooperation risk, market risk and cost management risk for both the mobile network operators and service providers. Finally, the risk avoidance effect is proved through mobile TV numerical example and sensitivity analysis is conducted.
引文
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