电力系统安全风险评估与应急体系研究
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摘要
近年来,中国经济的持续发展给电力行业的发展注入了新的活力,用电需求不断增加,电网结构和规模日益加大,电力系统的复杂特性也表现得日趋明显。这给现代电力系统的安全稳定控制提出了更高的要求和挑战。在大力发展智能电网的大好前景下,人们对保障电力系统的安全稳定运行更有信心。然而人们不得不面对一个事实——电力系统大面积停电风险是始终存在的。通过对近年来的一系列大面积停电事件的分析,可以看出传统的安全评估方法(包括确定性的稳定分析和概率性的评估方法)都存在不足之处。因此,除了继续完善现有各种安全与风险分析方法外,还必须从实用化的角度寻求更为完备的电力系统安全风险评估体系。同时,建立以政府为主导、电力企业为主体和全社会共同参与的应急体系,从而尽可能地降低突发事件的影响、减少人民的生命财产损失。
本文从反映大面积停电风险的角度,建立了一套基于政府监管的电力系统安全风险评估体系。该体系充分考虑到可能引起大面积停电的根本因素,并结合实际对这些根本因素层层展开,从而建立了一套递阶的四级评估指标体系。该指标体系是联系风险评估理论和风险评估实践的纽带,它给政府监管部门和电力企业联合开展电力系统安全风险评估工作提供了重要依据,更重要的是给电力系统的日常风险管理提供了指导意义。将该安全风险评估体系纳入到电力系统的日常风险管理中,有利于及时地从宏观上把握系统的风险水平、从微观上了解系统的薄弱环节,从而通过完善薄弱环节等可以很好地防范大面积停电的发生。
本文利用所建立的安全风险评估指标体系对广东省电力系统进行安全风险评估论证。首先,结合广东省电力系统的特点,对第四级指标进行了构建和解释,利用层次分析法得出了广东省大面积停电风险。然后,通过对风险评估结果的进一步分析,挖掘出广东省电力系统的薄弱环节,并提出了相应的改善对策。通过与广东省电力系统实际情况相比较,验证了风险评估结果的正确性,从而体现了本文所构建的风险评估体系的合理性和实用性。
电力系统安全风险评估通常是在系统正常运行时进行的。而电力系统的突发事件也是时有发生,而且可能造成较大的影响,这时就必须通过应急处理来降低突发事件的影响。应急体系是否合理和完善,直接关系到应急处理的效率和结果。加强应急体系建设是应急管理的核心,而科学和完善的应急管理机制可以对应急体系建设提供指导。目前国内对电力系统的应急体系研究还不成熟,本文在借鉴国内外现有应急管理经验的基础上,提出了一套完整的电力系统应急体系。该体系包含了应急法律法规体系、应急预案体系、应急组织体系和应急保障体系,从而给应急处理提供了法律保障、预案保障、领导指挥保障和物资队伍保障。在具体的内容方面,重点强调要构建以政府应急指挥中心和电网调度中心为“双核心”的应急指挥模式,以及加强应急通信的建设和提高应急队伍的救援技能。该应急体系将在完善电力系统的应急管理方面发挥了积极的作用。
最后,本文对所取得的成果进行了分析和归纳,并对今后进一步深入研究的工作作了展望。
In recent years, the consistent development of national economy infuses new vitality to the development of electric power industry. As a result, the requirement of electric power has been increasing greatly, and the scale of the power system is becoming larger and larger, all of which make the complex characteristics of power system more and more obvious. The power system in China has become a complex and huge system of which the voltage level is the highest and the scale is the largest in the world with the AC-DC hybrid operation. As a result it leads to higher demands and challenges for the security and stability control of modern power system. People have more confidence in guaranteeing power system to be secure and stable with the promising prospect of smart grid. However they have to face the reality that the large-area-blackout risk always exists. And it can be concluded that the traditional methods for security assessment, including the deterministic stability analysis and probabilistic assessment method, have some shortages by analyzing the recent series of large-area-blackout incidents so that it can not fulfill the development requirements of modern power system. So except for continuing developing the present methods, more comprehensive risk assessment system should be established from the application point of view. At the same time the emergency system in which the government is dominant, power enterprises play the main role and the whole society take part commonly should be made up so that the influence of sudden incidents and the loss of people's life and wealth can be decreased as much as possible.
A government-supervisor-based power system security risk assessment system is established from the large-area-blackout risk point of view in this thesis. In this system the fundmental factors that can cause large-area-blackout are considered fully. And the fundmental factors are divided into several layers based on the practical situations so that a hierarchical assessment index system with four levels is established. The index system is the bridge connecting risk assessment theory and practice. It provides an important basis for the government supervisory departments and electric power enterprises to carry out the work of power system security risk assessment together. More importantly, it can give guidance to the daily risk management of power system. What's more, it is good to master the risk level of the whole system in time from the macroscopic point and find out the weak places of the system from the microscopic point if taking this security risk assessment system into the daily risk management of power system. As a result that the large-area-blackout risk can be decreased greatly by eliminating the weak places.
The proposed security risk assessment index system has been checked and verified by the risk assessment work of Guangdong power system. Firstly, based on the characteristics of Guangdong power system, the fourth-level indeices is constructed and explained, and the total large-area-blackout risk of Guangdong power system is calculated out with the hierarchical analysis method. And then, by further analysis of the results of risk assessment, the weak places of Guangdong power system are found out and some countermeasures to eliminating the weak places are put forward. By comparing with the real situations of Guangdong power system, it proves that the results of risk assessment are right, and the reasonability and practicality of the proposed assessment system are also verfificated.
Generally the work of power system security risk assessment is carried out during the system's normal operation period. As we know that the sudden incidents in power system may occur momentarily and have great and bad influences on power system and society. So in this situation, only by emergency disposal can the bad influences be reduced. And it has a direct impact on the efficiency and result of emergency disposal whether the emergency system is reasonable and comprehensive or not. Emphasizing the construction of emergency system is the key part of emergencey management. At the same time, a scientific and comprehensive emergency management mechanism can guide the construction of emergency system. Now the domestic research on power system emergency system is not mature. So great efford on the study of emergency system of power system has been made and a comprehensive emergency system is brought up based on the existing emergency management experiences in chapter 5 of this thesis. The proposed emergency system is made up by emergency laws and regulations system, emergency prediction scheme system, emergency organization system and emergency indemnification system. So it provides laws indemnification, prediction scheme indemnification, conduct indemnification goods and people indemnification. And it is emphasized most importantly that not only the "double-core" emergency conduct mode which includes the government emergency conduct center and power grid dispatch center should be established, but also the constructiong of emergency communication and the improvement of rescue technology for emergency groups should be strengthen. Above all the proposed emergency system will play an important role in the development of power system emergency management.
Finally the whole works of this thesis are summarized and the future prospect on the development of power system security risk assessment and emergency system is highlighted.
本文从反映大面积停电风险的角度,建立了一套基于政府监管的电力系统安全风险评估体系。该体系充分考虑到可能引起大面积停电的根本因素,并结合实际对这些根本因素层层展开,从而建立了一套递阶的四级评估指标体系。该指标体系是联系风险评估理论和风险评估实践的纽带,它给政府监管部门和电力企业联合开展电力系统安全风险评估工作提供了重要依据,更重要的是给电力系统的日常风险管理提供了指导意义。将该安全风险评估体系纳入到电力系统的日常风险管理中,有利于及时地从宏观上把握系统的风险水平、从微观上了解系统的薄弱环节,从而通过完善薄弱环节等可以很好地防范大面积停电的发生。
本文利用所建立的安全风险评估指标体系对广东省电力系统进行安全风险评估论证。首先,结合广东省电力系统的特点,对第四级指标进行了构建和解释,利用层次分析法得出了广东省大面积停电风险。然后,通过对风险评估结果的进一步分析,挖掘出广东省电力系统的薄弱环节,并提出了相应的改善对策。通过与广东省电力系统实际情况相比较,验证了风险评估结果的正确性,从而体现了本文所构建的风险评估体系的合理性和实用性。
电力系统安全风险评估通常是在系统正常运行时进行的。而电力系统的突发事件也是时有发生,而且可能造成较大的影响,这时就必须通过应急处理来降低突发事件的影响。应急体系是否合理和完善,直接关系到应急处理的效率和结果。加强应急体系建设是应急管理的核心,而科学和完善的应急管理机制可以对应急体系建设提供指导。目前国内对电力系统的应急体系研究还不成熟,本文在借鉴国内外现有应急管理经验的基础上,提出了一套完整的电力系统应急体系。该体系包含了应急法律法规体系、应急预案体系、应急组织体系和应急保障体系,从而给应急处理提供了法律保障、预案保障、领导指挥保障和物资队伍保障。在具体的内容方面,重点强调要构建以政府应急指挥中心和电网调度中心为“双核心”的应急指挥模式,以及加强应急通信的建设和提高应急队伍的救援技能。该应急体系将在完善电力系统的应急管理方面发挥了积极的作用。
最后,本文对所取得的成果进行了分析和归纳,并对今后进一步深入研究的工作作了展望。
In recent years, the consistent development of national economy infuses new vitality to the development of electric power industry. As a result, the requirement of electric power has been increasing greatly, and the scale of the power system is becoming larger and larger, all of which make the complex characteristics of power system more and more obvious. The power system in China has become a complex and huge system of which the voltage level is the highest and the scale is the largest in the world with the AC-DC hybrid operation. As a result it leads to higher demands and challenges for the security and stability control of modern power system. People have more confidence in guaranteeing power system to be secure and stable with the promising prospect of smart grid. However they have to face the reality that the large-area-blackout risk always exists. And it can be concluded that the traditional methods for security assessment, including the deterministic stability analysis and probabilistic assessment method, have some shortages by analyzing the recent series of large-area-blackout incidents so that it can not fulfill the development requirements of modern power system. So except for continuing developing the present methods, more comprehensive risk assessment system should be established from the application point of view. At the same time the emergency system in which the government is dominant, power enterprises play the main role and the whole society take part commonly should be made up so that the influence of sudden incidents and the loss of people's life and wealth can be decreased as much as possible.
A government-supervisor-based power system security risk assessment system is established from the large-area-blackout risk point of view in this thesis. In this system the fundmental factors that can cause large-area-blackout are considered fully. And the fundmental factors are divided into several layers based on the practical situations so that a hierarchical assessment index system with four levels is established. The index system is the bridge connecting risk assessment theory and practice. It provides an important basis for the government supervisory departments and electric power enterprises to carry out the work of power system security risk assessment together. More importantly, it can give guidance to the daily risk management of power system. What's more, it is good to master the risk level of the whole system in time from the macroscopic point and find out the weak places of the system from the microscopic point if taking this security risk assessment system into the daily risk management of power system. As a result that the large-area-blackout risk can be decreased greatly by eliminating the weak places.
The proposed security risk assessment index system has been checked and verified by the risk assessment work of Guangdong power system. Firstly, based on the characteristics of Guangdong power system, the fourth-level indeices is constructed and explained, and the total large-area-blackout risk of Guangdong power system is calculated out with the hierarchical analysis method. And then, by further analysis of the results of risk assessment, the weak places of Guangdong power system are found out and some countermeasures to eliminating the weak places are put forward. By comparing with the real situations of Guangdong power system, it proves that the results of risk assessment are right, and the reasonability and practicality of the proposed assessment system are also verfificated.
Generally the work of power system security risk assessment is carried out during the system's normal operation period. As we know that the sudden incidents in power system may occur momentarily and have great and bad influences on power system and society. So in this situation, only by emergency disposal can the bad influences be reduced. And it has a direct impact on the efficiency and result of emergency disposal whether the emergency system is reasonable and comprehensive or not. Emphasizing the construction of emergency system is the key part of emergencey management. At the same time, a scientific and comprehensive emergency management mechanism can guide the construction of emergency system. Now the domestic research on power system emergency system is not mature. So great efford on the study of emergency system of power system has been made and a comprehensive emergency system is brought up based on the existing emergency management experiences in chapter 5 of this thesis. The proposed emergency system is made up by emergency laws and regulations system, emergency prediction scheme system, emergency organization system and emergency indemnification system. So it provides laws indemnification, prediction scheme indemnification, conduct indemnification goods and people indemnification. And it is emphasized most importantly that not only the "double-core" emergency conduct mode which includes the government emergency conduct center and power grid dispatch center should be established, but also the constructiong of emergency communication and the improvement of rescue technology for emergency groups should be strengthen. Above all the proposed emergency system will play an important role in the development of power system emergency management.
Finally the whole works of this thesis are summarized and the future prospect on the development of power system security risk assessment and emergency system is highlighted.
引文
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