所得税改革对资本结构的影响及市场反应
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摘要
所得税改革是当前我国税收改革政策中的一个重要方面,所得税改革对上市公司资本结构的影响及市场反应是一个值得研究的问题。本文基于2007年3月16日审议通过的所得税改革法案,研究这一政策变动对上市公司资本结构的影响以及公司股价在市场上的反应。通过对835家上市公司资本结构进行研究发现,相比于税率不变、税率降低的公司,税改导致公司所得税提高的公司会提高财务杠杆,这一研究结论为资本结构理论在中国的适用性提供了现实基础。此外,对财务杠杆提高的原因进行了进一步探讨发现,财务杠杆提高主要是通过负债增加而不是所有者权益减少,这一结果与吴联生等(2006)对我国“先征后返”所得税优惠政策取消对资本结构变动的研究结论一致。另外,回归模型的结果显示,公司成长性(GROWTH)、规模(SIZE)与资本结构变动显著正相关,公司业绩(ROA)、折旧变动(DDEP)与资本结构变动显著负相关;而托宾Q(TQ)、交易所状态(Exchange)等变量与资本结构变动没有显著的关系。通过对769家公司股价在市场上的反应的研究发现,相比于税率不变、税率提高的公司,市场对税率降低的公司给予正的反应;然而相比于税率不变的公司,税率提高的公司的市场表现没有显著地负面效应。
The Income Tax Reform is an important aspect in China's current tax reform policy, and its influence to capital structure of listed companies and the market reaction is an issue that deserves research. Based on March 16, 2007 passed the tax reform act, we research the influence to the capital structure of listed companies and the company's stock market reaction. Through the 835 listed companies capital structure study,we found that, compared with the tax rate unchanged & reduced companies, tax reform leading to corporate income tax increased companies will improve financial leverage, which provides basis for the capital structure theory in China's suitability in reality. In addition, the reason of financial leverage improving is primarily through debt increased rather than owners' equity reduced, which is consistent to this research conclusion of Wu LianSheng (2006) to our country "first levied then returned" income tax preferential policies to lift its capital of the structural changes. Meanwhile, the regression model results show that company growth (GROWTH), scale (SIZE) are significantly positive with the capital structure change, and the company performance (ROA), depreciation changes (DDEP) are significantly negative with the capital structure change. While tobin Q (TQ) and exchange state (Exchange) variables have no significant correlation with the capital structure changes. Through the 769 company's share prices in the market's reaction study, we found that, compared with the tax rate unchanged & increased companies, the tax rate reduced companies will perform a positive response in market. However, compared to the constant tax rate companies, the improving companies’market performances isn’t a significantly adverse effect.
The Income Tax Reform is an important aspect in China's current tax reform policy, and its influence to capital structure of listed companies and the market reaction is an issue that deserves research. Based on March 16, 2007 passed the tax reform act, we research the influence to the capital structure of listed companies and the company's stock market reaction. Through the 835 listed companies capital structure study,we found that, compared with the tax rate unchanged & reduced companies, tax reform leading to corporate income tax increased companies will improve financial leverage, which provides basis for the capital structure theory in China's suitability in reality. In addition, the reason of financial leverage improving is primarily through debt increased rather than owners' equity reduced, which is consistent to this research conclusion of Wu LianSheng (2006) to our country "first levied then returned" income tax preferential policies to lift its capital of the structural changes. Meanwhile, the regression model results show that company growth (GROWTH), scale (SIZE) are significantly positive with the capital structure change, and the company performance (ROA), depreciation changes (DDEP) are significantly negative with the capital structure change. While tobin Q (TQ) and exchange state (Exchange) variables have no significant correlation with the capital structure changes. Through the 769 company's share prices in the market's reaction study, we found that, compared with the tax rate unchanged & increased companies, the tax rate reduced companies will perform a positive response in market. However, compared to the constant tax rate companies, the improving companies’market performances isn’t a significantly adverse effect.
引文
[1] Ahmed Belkaoui, 1975, "A Canadian Survey of Financial Structure", Financial Management , Spring :74 -79.
[2] Auerbach, A., 1985, "Real Determinants of Corporate Leverage",in B. Friedman (ed.), Corporate Capital Structures in the US., National Bureau of Economic Research, Washington, D.C.
[3] Chaplinsky, S., 1987, "The Effect of Taxes on Capital Structure",working paper, The University of Michigan.
[4] Dammon, R., and L. Senbet, 1988, "The Effect of Taxes and Depreciation on Corporate Investment and Financial Leverage", Journal of Finance, 43, 357-373.
[5] David F Scott and John D Martin, 1975, "Industry Influence on Financial Structure", Financial Management, Spring :67 -73.
[6] DeAngelo, H., and R. Masulis, 1980, "Optimal Capital Structure under Corporate and Personal Taxation", Journal of Financial Economics, 8, 3-29.
[7] Dotan, A., and A. Ravid, 1985, "On the Interaction of Real and Financial Decisions of the Firm Under Uncertainty", Journsal of Finance, 40, 501-517.
[8] Downs , Thomas , Hendershott , Patrick H., 1987, "Stock Policy and Stock Prices", National Tax Journal , 40 (2) : 183 -190.
[9] Easton , Peter D. , Harris , Trevor S., 1991, "Earnings as an Explanatory Variable for Returns", Journal of Accounting Research , 29 (1) :19-36.
[10] Eli Schwartz and J Richard Aronson, 1967, "Some Surrogate Evidence in Support of the Concept of Optimal Financial Structuer", Journal of Finance, 22 (1) :10-18.
[11] Farrar, Donald E. and Lee L. Selwyn, 1967, "Taxes,Corporate Financial Policy and Return to Investors", NationalTax Journal, 20, pp.444-454.
[12] Givoly, D., Hahn, C., Ofer, A., Sarig, O. H., 1992, "Taxes and capital structure: Evidence from firms' response to the Tax Reform Act of 1986", Review of Financial Studies 5, pp.331-355.
[13] Givoly , D. , Hayn , C., 1991,"The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 on Firm Valuation", Journal of Business , 64(3) : 363 -392.
[14] Graham, J. R., 2003, "Taxes and corporate finance: A review", Review of Financial Studies 16, pp.1075-1129.
[15] Harris, M., Raviv, A., 1991, "The Theory of Capital Structure", Journal of Finance, 46, pp.297-355.
[16] Haugen, R., and L. Senbet, 1986, "Corporate Finance and Taxes: A Review," FinancialManagement,15, 5-21.
[17] J Markham Collins and William S Sekely, 1983, "The Relationship of Headquarters Country and Industry Classsification to Financial Struture", Financial Management, Autumn : 45 -51.
[18] John R. Graham and Alan L. Tucker, 2006, "Tax shelters and corporate debt policy",Journal of Financial Economics, 81, 563-594
[19] Julian Alworth and Giampaolo Arachi, 2001, "The Effect of Taxes on Corporate Financing Decisions: Evidence from a Panel of Italian Firms",International Tax and Public Finance, 8, 353-376.
[20] Kim, E., W. Lewellen, and J. McConnell, 1979, "Financial Leverage Clienteles: Theory and Evidence,"Journal of Financial Economics, 7, 83-109.
[21] Leland, H.E., Pyle, D.H., 1977, "Informational Asymmetries,Financial Structure and Financial Intermediation", Journal of Finance, 32, pp.371-387.
[22] Michelle Hanlon and Joel Slemrod, 2009, "What does tax aggressiveness signal? Evidence from stock price reactions to news about tax shelter involvement",Journal of Public Economics, 126-141.
[23] Mike Sibley ,1991, "The Search for Industry Financing Patterns", American Business Review, January : 85-91.
[24] Miller, M., 1977, "Debt and Taxes," Journal of Finance, 32, 261-275.
[25] Modigliani, F., and M. Miller, 1958, "The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment", American Economic Review, 48, 261-297.
[26] Modigliani, F., and M. Miller, 1963, "Corporate Income Taxes and the Cost of Capital: A Correction", American Economic Review, 53, 433-443.
[27] Myers, S., 1977, "The Determinants of Corporate Borrowing", Journal of Financial Economics, 5,147-175.
[28] Myers, S., and N. Majluf, 1984, "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have Information That Investors Do Not Have", Journal of Financial Economics, 13, 187-221.
[29] Nevins D. Baxter, 1967, "Leverage, Risk of Ruin and the Cost of Capital", Journal of Finance, 22, pp. 395-403
[30] Raj Aggarwal, 1990, "Capital Structure Differences among Large Asian Companies", ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 7 (1) : 39-53.
[31] Rajan, R., Zingales, L., 1995, "What do we know about capital structure?Some evidence from international data", The Journal of Finance 50,pp. 1421-1460.
[32] Robert M Bowen , et al , 1982, "Evidence on The Existence and Determinants of Inter2Industry Differences in Leverage", FinancialManagement, Winter : 10-20.
[33] Roger H. Gordon, Young Lee, 2001, "Do taxes affect corporate debt policy? Evidence from U.S. corporate tax return data",Journal of Public Economics, 82, 195-224.
[34] Ross, S.A.,1977, "The Determination of Financial Structure:the Incentive Signaling Approach", Bell Journal of Economics,8, pp.1-32.
[35] Scholes, M., and M. Wolfson, 1990, "The Effects of Changes in Tax Laws on Corporate Reorganization Activity", Journal of Business, 63, 141-165.
[36] Stiglitz, J. E., 1974, "Incentives and risk sharing in sharecropping", Review of Economic Studies, (April),pp. 219-55.
[37] Tao Zeng, 2006, "Tax Effect on Firm Valuation under Clean Surplus Accounting", Journal of American Academy of Business , 9(2): 300 -306.
[38] Titman, S., and R. Wessels, 1988, "The Determinants of Capital Structure Choice", Journal of Finance, 43, 1-19.
[39] Welch, Ivo, 2004, "Capital Structure and Stock Returns", Journal of Political Economy, 112, 106-131.
[40]陈小悦、李晨:《上海股市的收益与资本结构关系实证研究》,《北京大学学报》(哲学社会科学版),1995年第1期。
[41]郭鹏飞、孙培源:《资本结构的行业特征:基于中国上市公司的实证研究》,《经济研究》,2003年第5期。
[42]洪锡熙、沈艺峰:《我国上市公司资本结构影响因素的实证分析》,《厦门大学学报》(哲学社会科学版),2000年第3期。
[43]吕长江、韩慧博:《上市公司资本结构特点的实证分析》,《南开管理评论》,2001年第5期。
[44]吕长江、王克敏:《上市公司资本结构、股利分配及管理股权比例相互作用机制研究》,《会计研究》,2002年第3期。
[45]陆正飞:《企业适度负债的理论分析与实证研究》,《经济研究》,1996年第2期。
[46]陆正飞、辛宇:《上市公司资本结构主要影响因素之实证分析》,《会计研究》,1998年第8期。
[47]唐国正、刘力:《利率管制对我国上市公司资本结构的影响》,《管理世界》,2005年第1期。
[48]唐国正、刘力:《公司资本结构理论回顾与展望》,《管理世界》,2006年第5期。
[49]童盼、陆正飞:《负债融资、负债来源与企业投资行为》,《经济研究》,2005年第5期。
[50]吴联生、岳衡:《税率调整和资本结构变动基于我国取消先征后返所得税优惠政策的研究》,《管理世界》,2006年第11期。
[51]王素荣、张新民:《资本结构和所得税税负关系实证研究》,《中国工业经济》,2006年第12期。
[52]王延明:《上市公司所得税率变化的敏感性分析》,《经济研究》,2002年第9期。
[53]王延明:《上市公司所得税负担研究来自规模、地区和行业的经验证据》,《管理世界》,2003年第1期。
[54]王延明、李韬:《不同地区上市公司所得税优惠的实证分析》,《税务研究》,2003年第4期。
[55]王跃堂、王亮亮、贡彩萍:《所得税改革、盈余管理及其经济后果》,《经济研究》,2009年第3期。
[56]肖作平:《资本结构影响因素和双向效应动态模型来自中国上市公司面板数据的证据》,《会计研究》,2004年第2期。
[2] Auerbach, A., 1985, "Real Determinants of Corporate Leverage",in B. Friedman (ed.), Corporate Capital Structures in the US., National Bureau of Economic Research, Washington, D.C.
[3] Chaplinsky, S., 1987, "The Effect of Taxes on Capital Structure",working paper, The University of Michigan.
[4] Dammon, R., and L. Senbet, 1988, "The Effect of Taxes and Depreciation on Corporate Investment and Financial Leverage", Journal of Finance, 43, 357-373.
[5] David F Scott and John D Martin, 1975, "Industry Influence on Financial Structure", Financial Management, Spring :67 -73.
[6] DeAngelo, H., and R. Masulis, 1980, "Optimal Capital Structure under Corporate and Personal Taxation", Journal of Financial Economics, 8, 3-29.
[7] Dotan, A., and A. Ravid, 1985, "On the Interaction of Real and Financial Decisions of the Firm Under Uncertainty", Journsal of Finance, 40, 501-517.
[8] Downs , Thomas , Hendershott , Patrick H., 1987, "Stock Policy and Stock Prices", National Tax Journal , 40 (2) : 183 -190.
[9] Easton , Peter D. , Harris , Trevor S., 1991, "Earnings as an Explanatory Variable for Returns", Journal of Accounting Research , 29 (1) :19-36.
[10] Eli Schwartz and J Richard Aronson, 1967, "Some Surrogate Evidence in Support of the Concept of Optimal Financial Structuer", Journal of Finance, 22 (1) :10-18.
[11] Farrar, Donald E. and Lee L. Selwyn, 1967, "Taxes,Corporate Financial Policy and Return to Investors", NationalTax Journal, 20, pp.444-454.
[12] Givoly, D., Hahn, C., Ofer, A., Sarig, O. H., 1992, "Taxes and capital structure: Evidence from firms' response to the Tax Reform Act of 1986", Review of Financial Studies 5, pp.331-355.
[13] Givoly , D. , Hayn , C., 1991,"The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 on Firm Valuation", Journal of Business , 64(3) : 363 -392.
[14] Graham, J. R., 2003, "Taxes and corporate finance: A review", Review of Financial Studies 16, pp.1075-1129.
[15] Harris, M., Raviv, A., 1991, "The Theory of Capital Structure", Journal of Finance, 46, pp.297-355.
[16] Haugen, R., and L. Senbet, 1986, "Corporate Finance and Taxes: A Review," FinancialManagement,15, 5-21.
[17] J Markham Collins and William S Sekely, 1983, "The Relationship of Headquarters Country and Industry Classsification to Financial Struture", Financial Management, Autumn : 45 -51.
[18] John R. Graham and Alan L. Tucker, 2006, "Tax shelters and corporate debt policy",Journal of Financial Economics, 81, 563-594
[19] Julian Alworth and Giampaolo Arachi, 2001, "The Effect of Taxes on Corporate Financing Decisions: Evidence from a Panel of Italian Firms",International Tax and Public Finance, 8, 353-376.
[20] Kim, E., W. Lewellen, and J. McConnell, 1979, "Financial Leverage Clienteles: Theory and Evidence,"Journal of Financial Economics, 7, 83-109.
[21] Leland, H.E., Pyle, D.H., 1977, "Informational Asymmetries,Financial Structure and Financial Intermediation", Journal of Finance, 32, pp.371-387.
[22] Michelle Hanlon and Joel Slemrod, 2009, "What does tax aggressiveness signal? Evidence from stock price reactions to news about tax shelter involvement",Journal of Public Economics, 126-141.
[23] Mike Sibley ,1991, "The Search for Industry Financing Patterns", American Business Review, January : 85-91.
[24] Miller, M., 1977, "Debt and Taxes," Journal of Finance, 32, 261-275.
[25] Modigliani, F., and M. Miller, 1958, "The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment", American Economic Review, 48, 261-297.
[26] Modigliani, F., and M. Miller, 1963, "Corporate Income Taxes and the Cost of Capital: A Correction", American Economic Review, 53, 433-443.
[27] Myers, S., 1977, "The Determinants of Corporate Borrowing", Journal of Financial Economics, 5,147-175.
[28] Myers, S., and N. Majluf, 1984, "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have Information That Investors Do Not Have", Journal of Financial Economics, 13, 187-221.
[29] Nevins D. Baxter, 1967, "Leverage, Risk of Ruin and the Cost of Capital", Journal of Finance, 22, pp. 395-403
[30] Raj Aggarwal, 1990, "Capital Structure Differences among Large Asian Companies", ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 7 (1) : 39-53.
[31] Rajan, R., Zingales, L., 1995, "What do we know about capital structure?Some evidence from international data", The Journal of Finance 50,pp. 1421-1460.
[32] Robert M Bowen , et al , 1982, "Evidence on The Existence and Determinants of Inter2Industry Differences in Leverage", FinancialManagement, Winter : 10-20.
[33] Roger H. Gordon, Young Lee, 2001, "Do taxes affect corporate debt policy? Evidence from U.S. corporate tax return data",Journal of Public Economics, 82, 195-224.
[34] Ross, S.A.,1977, "The Determination of Financial Structure:the Incentive Signaling Approach", Bell Journal of Economics,8, pp.1-32.
[35] Scholes, M., and M. Wolfson, 1990, "The Effects of Changes in Tax Laws on Corporate Reorganization Activity", Journal of Business, 63, 141-165.
[36] Stiglitz, J. E., 1974, "Incentives and risk sharing in sharecropping", Review of Economic Studies, (April),pp. 219-55.
[37] Tao Zeng, 2006, "Tax Effect on Firm Valuation under Clean Surplus Accounting", Journal of American Academy of Business , 9(2): 300 -306.
[38] Titman, S., and R. Wessels, 1988, "The Determinants of Capital Structure Choice", Journal of Finance, 43, 1-19.
[39] Welch, Ivo, 2004, "Capital Structure and Stock Returns", Journal of Political Economy, 112, 106-131.
[40]陈小悦、李晨:《上海股市的收益与资本结构关系实证研究》,《北京大学学报》(哲学社会科学版),1995年第1期。
[41]郭鹏飞、孙培源:《资本结构的行业特征:基于中国上市公司的实证研究》,《经济研究》,2003年第5期。
[42]洪锡熙、沈艺峰:《我国上市公司资本结构影响因素的实证分析》,《厦门大学学报》(哲学社会科学版),2000年第3期。
[43]吕长江、韩慧博:《上市公司资本结构特点的实证分析》,《南开管理评论》,2001年第5期。
[44]吕长江、王克敏:《上市公司资本结构、股利分配及管理股权比例相互作用机制研究》,《会计研究》,2002年第3期。
[45]陆正飞:《企业适度负债的理论分析与实证研究》,《经济研究》,1996年第2期。
[46]陆正飞、辛宇:《上市公司资本结构主要影响因素之实证分析》,《会计研究》,1998年第8期。
[47]唐国正、刘力:《利率管制对我国上市公司资本结构的影响》,《管理世界》,2005年第1期。
[48]唐国正、刘力:《公司资本结构理论回顾与展望》,《管理世界》,2006年第5期。
[49]童盼、陆正飞:《负债融资、负债来源与企业投资行为》,《经济研究》,2005年第5期。
[50]吴联生、岳衡:《税率调整和资本结构变动基于我国取消先征后返所得税优惠政策的研究》,《管理世界》,2006年第11期。
[51]王素荣、张新民:《资本结构和所得税税负关系实证研究》,《中国工业经济》,2006年第12期。
[52]王延明:《上市公司所得税率变化的敏感性分析》,《经济研究》,2002年第9期。
[53]王延明:《上市公司所得税负担研究来自规模、地区和行业的经验证据》,《管理世界》,2003年第1期。
[54]王延明、李韬:《不同地区上市公司所得税优惠的实证分析》,《税务研究》,2003年第4期。
[55]王跃堂、王亮亮、贡彩萍:《所得税改革、盈余管理及其经济后果》,《经济研究》,2009年第3期。
[56]肖作平:《资本结构影响因素和双向效应动态模型来自中国上市公司面板数据的证据》,《会计研究》,2004年第2期。