粮食直接补贴政策实施效果研究
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摘要
粮食是人类不可或缺的生活资料,除了是最基本的口粮、饲料粮、工业用粮和种子用粮外,还是最重要的战略物资。我国既是农业大国又是人口大国,2009年有农民7.1亿,占我国人口总数的53.4%,农业收入仍然是农民收入的主要来源。农业是弱质产业,比较利益低下,和其它产业相比明显缺乏竞争力。从2006年下半年到2008年上半年,世界粮食价格剧烈波动,进而引发了一系列的政治问题,使得各国政府更加关注本国的粮食安全问题。粮食是国家生存的根本,因而我国政府应提高农民种粮积极性,增加农民种粮收入,并将其作为我国促进粮食生产、保障粮食安全的重中之重。
虽然国家逐年加大对种粮农民的补贴力度,2004年以前实行的是对流通环节进行补贴的间接补贴,2004年开始对种粮农民直接补贴,但是2004年实施直接补贴后,农资价格也一路上涨,农资价格的大幅上涨增加了农民的种植成本,部分抵消了惠农政策给农民带来的实惠,因而农资价格上涨在多大程度上挤占了农民收益是很值得研究的一个问题。文章以全国商品粮基地县山西洪洞县为例,通过分析粮食直接补贴对农户粮食产量、种植面积和家庭经营性收入的影响,主要得出了两个结论：
一是粮食直接补贴政策调动了农民的种粮积极性,具体表现在粮食产量和种植面积的增加。通过建立粮食产量生产函数模型和粮食种植面积Logit模型,运用EVIEWS5.0和SPSS17.0软件进行分析,得出了粮食直接补贴政策对粮食产量和种植面积都有正的显著的影响。
二是粮食直接补贴增加了农民收入,但由于农业生产资料价格上涨,扣除农业生产资料价格上涨因素,粮食直接补贴政策促进农民增加家庭经营性收入的效果并不显著。通过分析发现粮食直接补贴政策对农民家庭经营性收入有正的显著的影响；农民所得粮食直接补贴占农民家庭经营性收入的8%左右；粮食价格上涨使农民所得受益的48.9%被农业生产资料价格上涨所挤占。
本文的创新点主要有三个方面：一是观点的创新,现有研究大多从实证的角度进行分析,本文既从实证上对粮食直接补贴政策的实施效果进行了分析,义从理论上用经济学方法对粮食直接补贴政策进行了分析；二是将粮食直接补贴作为一个政策变量引入到计量模型中,分析粮食直接补贴政策对农户粮食产量、播种面积、收入的影响,从而判断其实施的效果；三是已有的研究基本上都是从整体着手,研究大范围内的政策实施效果,而对较小区域的研究很少,因而本文对商品粮基地县的研究很有代表性和可行性。
本文也存在如下不足之处：一是只分析了粮食直接补贴政策对农户粮食产量、播种面积、收入的影响,没有分析良种补贴、农机具购置补贴等其他惠农政策的实施效果；二是没有分析粮食直接补贴对不同种植规模、不同地理位置、不同灌溉方式农户的影响。这些都需要后面进行进一步的研究。
Grain is an indispensable livelihood, which can be used as the basic ration, feed grain, industrial food and seeds food, it also is the most important strategic materials.China is a country of both large agricultural and large population, there are 710 million farmers, accounting for 53.4 percent of the total population in 2009, farm income is still the main source of farmer's income. Agriculture is a weak industry, relatively low interest, and the apparent lack of competitiveness compared to other industries. From the second half of 2006 to the first half of 2008, volatility in world food prices, triggering a series of political issue, makes governments pay more attention to their food security. Grain is the basic national survival, so our government should encourage farmers to grow grain, increase the income of grain farmers, and make it the top priority to promote grain production and ensure food security.
Although the country gradually increase subsidies to grain farmers, it is indirect subsidies to subsidize circulation before 2004, it subsidies to grain farmers directly from 2004. With the implementation of direct subsidies in 2004, the price of agricultural production material have been rocketing,it rose so sharply that increases farmers planting costs, partially offset by the benefits of agricultural policies brought tangible benefits to farmers. It is an issue worthy of studying the relations of agricultural production material's price and farms' income. The article as an example of commodity grain base county of Shanxi Hongdong County, by analyzing the effect of direct subsidies to farmers' grain yield, plant areas and operating income of the family, mainly get two conclusions:
Firstly, grain direct subsidy policy mobilizes farmers to grow grain, specifically in the grain production and increased acreage. By the establishment of food production and food production function model of acreage Logit model, using the EVIEWS5.0 and SPSS17.0 software analysis, grain direct subsidy policy for grain production and planting area has a significant positive impact.
Secondly, grain direct subsidy policy increases farmers income, but the rising prices of agricultural production material, deducting price factors of agricultural production material, the effect of grain direct subsidy policy to increase families operating income is not significant. The analysis shows that grain direct subsidy policy to families operating income is a significant impact; agricultural production material price crowds 48.9% of the benefit which is received from the food rising price; farmer's profit from grain direct subsidy policy is account about 8% of families operating income.
The innovation of this paper there are three aspects:First, the innovative of view, existing studies mostly from the perspective of empirical analysis, this paper is not only from empirical implementation, but also from the theory of economics method; the second is making the grain direct subsidy as a policy variable introduced into the econometric model, analysising the effect of grain direct subsidy to farmers grain production, acreage, families operating income, in order to determine the carryout effect; Third, the research has been basically proceed from the overall research policy implementation within a wide range of effects, but little research on the small area, so this research on the commodity grain base counties are very representative and feasibility.
This paper also has shortcomings:First, just analysing the carryover effect of grain direct subsidy policy, not analysing the seed subsidies, farm machinery purchase subsidy and other favorable policies; the second is not analysis the effect of grain direct subsidy policy to grain growing on different scales, different geographical location, the impact of different irrigation farmers. These need further study later.
虽然国家逐年加大对种粮农民的补贴力度,2004年以前实行的是对流通环节进行补贴的间接补贴,2004年开始对种粮农民直接补贴,但是2004年实施直接补贴后,农资价格也一路上涨,农资价格的大幅上涨增加了农民的种植成本,部分抵消了惠农政策给农民带来的实惠,因而农资价格上涨在多大程度上挤占了农民收益是很值得研究的一个问题。文章以全国商品粮基地县山西洪洞县为例,通过分析粮食直接补贴对农户粮食产量、种植面积和家庭经营性收入的影响,主要得出了两个结论：
一是粮食直接补贴政策调动了农民的种粮积极性,具体表现在粮食产量和种植面积的增加。通过建立粮食产量生产函数模型和粮食种植面积Logit模型,运用EVIEWS5.0和SPSS17.0软件进行分析,得出了粮食直接补贴政策对粮食产量和种植面积都有正的显著的影响。
二是粮食直接补贴增加了农民收入,但由于农业生产资料价格上涨,扣除农业生产资料价格上涨因素,粮食直接补贴政策促进农民增加家庭经营性收入的效果并不显著。通过分析发现粮食直接补贴政策对农民家庭经营性收入有正的显著的影响；农民所得粮食直接补贴占农民家庭经营性收入的8%左右；粮食价格上涨使农民所得受益的48.9%被农业生产资料价格上涨所挤占。
本文的创新点主要有三个方面：一是观点的创新,现有研究大多从实证的角度进行分析,本文既从实证上对粮食直接补贴政策的实施效果进行了分析,义从理论上用经济学方法对粮食直接补贴政策进行了分析；二是将粮食直接补贴作为一个政策变量引入到计量模型中,分析粮食直接补贴政策对农户粮食产量、播种面积、收入的影响,从而判断其实施的效果；三是已有的研究基本上都是从整体着手,研究大范围内的政策实施效果,而对较小区域的研究很少,因而本文对商品粮基地县的研究很有代表性和可行性。
本文也存在如下不足之处：一是只分析了粮食直接补贴政策对农户粮食产量、播种面积、收入的影响,没有分析良种补贴、农机具购置补贴等其他惠农政策的实施效果；二是没有分析粮食直接补贴对不同种植规模、不同地理位置、不同灌溉方式农户的影响。这些都需要后面进行进一步的研究。
Grain is an indispensable livelihood, which can be used as the basic ration, feed grain, industrial food and seeds food, it also is the most important strategic materials.China is a country of both large agricultural and large population, there are 710 million farmers, accounting for 53.4 percent of the total population in 2009, farm income is still the main source of farmer's income. Agriculture is a weak industry, relatively low interest, and the apparent lack of competitiveness compared to other industries. From the second half of 2006 to the first half of 2008, volatility in world food prices, triggering a series of political issue, makes governments pay more attention to their food security. Grain is the basic national survival, so our government should encourage farmers to grow grain, increase the income of grain farmers, and make it the top priority to promote grain production and ensure food security.
Although the country gradually increase subsidies to grain farmers, it is indirect subsidies to subsidize circulation before 2004, it subsidies to grain farmers directly from 2004. With the implementation of direct subsidies in 2004, the price of agricultural production material have been rocketing,it rose so sharply that increases farmers planting costs, partially offset by the benefits of agricultural policies brought tangible benefits to farmers. It is an issue worthy of studying the relations of agricultural production material's price and farms' income. The article as an example of commodity grain base county of Shanxi Hongdong County, by analyzing the effect of direct subsidies to farmers' grain yield, plant areas and operating income of the family, mainly get two conclusions:
Firstly, grain direct subsidy policy mobilizes farmers to grow grain, specifically in the grain production and increased acreage. By the establishment of food production and food production function model of acreage Logit model, using the EVIEWS5.0 and SPSS17.0 software analysis, grain direct subsidy policy for grain production and planting area has a significant positive impact.
Secondly, grain direct subsidy policy increases farmers income, but the rising prices of agricultural production material, deducting price factors of agricultural production material, the effect of grain direct subsidy policy to increase families operating income is not significant. The analysis shows that grain direct subsidy policy to families operating income is a significant impact; agricultural production material price crowds 48.9% of the benefit which is received from the food rising price; farmer's profit from grain direct subsidy policy is account about 8% of families operating income.
The innovation of this paper there are three aspects:First, the innovative of view, existing studies mostly from the perspective of empirical analysis, this paper is not only from empirical implementation, but also from the theory of economics method; the second is making the grain direct subsidy as a policy variable introduced into the econometric model, analysising the effect of grain direct subsidy to farmers grain production, acreage, families operating income, in order to determine the carryout effect; Third, the research has been basically proceed from the overall research policy implementation within a wide range of effects, but little research on the small area, so this research on the commodity grain base counties are very representative and feasibility.
This paper also has shortcomings:First, just analysing the carryover effect of grain direct subsidy policy, not analysing the seed subsidies, farm machinery purchase subsidy and other favorable policies; the second is not analysis the effect of grain direct subsidy policy to grain growing on different scales, different geographical location, the impact of different irrigation farmers. These need further study later.
引文
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