农业科技园技术扩散的农户采用行为研究
摘要
农业科技园具有技术集成、研发与扩散功能,承担着带动区域农业发展的重任。农户是农业技术的最终采用者,是农业科技成果转化为农业生产力的执行者。对农业科技园技术扩散下农户技术采用行为的研究,不仅可以指导农户的技术认知、采用决策与生产要素安排,还能为科技园技术研发与扩散提供重要参考。因此,论文基于目前对农户技术采用特点及规律认识不足的现状,通过规范研究与实证研究,定性研究与定量研究相结合的方法,将农户纳入“科技园-辐射区”的系统框架下研究其技术采用过程与特点。以期能为科技园的技术扩散和农户的技术采用提供有益借鉴,并开拓经济地理学园区经济研究的新视角,丰富传播学理论在农业技术扩散中的运用。
本文遵循“理论构建-实证分析-对策建议”的研究逻辑,以甘肃定西国家农业科技园及其辐射区为对象进行研究。首先借鉴人文-经济地理学、行为地理学、农业经济学及传播学等相关学科理论,对农户技术采用前、中、后三个阶段进行了相关概念界定和研究模型设定,构建实证研究的理论框架；继而采用GIS空间可视化表达、结构方程模型、Logit模型、DEA模型及SFA模型等方法,对辐射区马铃薯种植技术优势度,农户技术感知及其采用倾向影响,技术需求与决策影响因素,技术效率及农户生计效应等进行实证分析,总结出农户技术采用不同阶段的规律及特征；最后对以农户为中心的科技园技术扩散系统进行探讨并提出促进技术扩散的对策,主要研究内容和结论如下：
(1)对农户的技术采用过程进行理论探讨。提出农户技术感知的概念并对其测量维度进行设计,对传统的农户技术采用影响变量进行修正,将技术效率和生计框架理论引入到农户的技术采用效应分析中,构建从技术采用前、中、后三个视角进行全过程研究的理论框架,并进行相关模型设定和检验方法选择。
(2)对案例区技术扩散源、扩散区域和技术类型进行典型性分析。结果表明：定西国家农业科技园在科技研发和创新能力、种植技术、旱作农业技术和龙头企业带动区域农业发展方面都已取得显著成就；由全国和甘肃省两个尺度上的马铃薯种植格局演变分析可知,案例区为我国马铃薯主产区之一,区域优势度不断提升；定西国家农业科技园已经形成较为成熟的马铃薯种植成套技术。
(3)对农户技术感知的相关维度进行测度,并运用结构方程模型验证技术感知对技术采用倾向的影响。结果表明：6个潜变量和21个测量变量得分均值存在显著差异,各潜变量得分排序为感知价值、采用意愿、技术风险、感知利益、感知成本和健康风险感知；影响农户技术感知价值和技术采用倾向大小的主要因素为技术收益,而技术成本、技术风险及使用过程中的健康风险对上述两者的影响极为有限；农户的性别、年龄、学历等个人属性特征,其所在区域的地形、园区辐射圈层以及是否参加合作社(龙头企业基地)等变量在通过验证的6条路径上也各有不同的显著性影响。
(4)对农户的技术需求优先度和采用后担心因素,影响农户技术采用决策的技术与非技术因素进行分析。结果显示：农户在最需要的技术和使用后的担心因素方面具有较高的一致性；技术属性本身对农户技术采用有一定影响；决策者的年龄、学历、风险偏好等个体特质,家庭耕地面积、劳动力和收入状况等家庭农业生产禀赋条件,是否有补贴及所处地形条件等因素对偏中间性的脱毒薯种技术和偏商品性的地膜覆盖技术采用的影响存在较大差异。
(5)采用数据包络和随机前沿生产函数两种方法对农户的技术采用效率进行测度,进而运用田野调查法分析技术采用的农户生计效应。结果表明：样本农户马铃薯种植的综合技术效率、纯技术效率和规模效率都存在较大的优化空间；56.72%的农户处于规模报酬递增阶段,可通过增加种植规模实现技术效率的提升；各投入要素都存在一定的冗余现象；资本、劳动力和土地三项投入对技术效率均有正向贡献；种植规模和所处辐射圈层对技术效率有显著影响；技术效率损失受决策者学历水平、家庭劳动力数量、人均耕地面积、是否为龙头企业基地户和机会成本等多因素的影响；两种方法的效率均值差异表明,案例区农户技术效率存在一定的“低水平陷阱”现象；技术采用的农户生计效应分析表明,农户生计模式已形成较强的技术路径依赖效应。
(6)本文的实证研究表明,农业技术扩散符合地理学的创新空间扩散与距离衰减规律理论。目前案例区地域空间内,已经形成由定西国家农业科技园及其次级园区为技术核心区,周边农业生产区为外围区的农业技术扩散“核心-外围”结构。不同辐射圈层农户的技术采用过程分析也表明,科技园的技术扩散具有较显著的距离衰减规律效应。
(7)在前文研究的基础上,提出了促进定西国家农业科技园技术扩散及农户技术采用的举措。主要围绕扩散系统重构、农户技术感知教育与测度、技术市场监管、技术服务效率、农户人力资本投入、农业生产组织化和规模化、技术采用效应及农业技术服务节点空间布局等八个方面展开探讨。
Agricultural science and technology parks have the functions of technology integration, research, design and diffusion, undertaking the responsibility to lead the development of the region. Farmers are the final adopters of agricultural technologies and the exercisers of the transformation of agricultural technology into productivity. Therefore, research on the farmers' technical adoptions under the background of agricultural science and technology parks' technical diffusions is very important, it can guide farmers' technical perceptions, technical adoption and arrangements of productive essentials, and also can provide important references to the agricultural science and technology parks on agricultural technologies' researching and diffusing. Thus, based on the lack of realization about farmers' technical adoption's characteristics and laws, this dissertation takes farmers into the consideration of the systemic frame of'agricultural science and technology parks-radiation districts' to research the process and characteristics of farmers'adoption, through normative and demonstrative researches combining with quantities and qualities researches, aimed to provide references of technical adoption and diffusion to the parks, extend the perspective of park economic research in economic geography, and advance the application of communication theory in agricultural technology diffusion.
This dissertation follows the logic of'theory construction-demonstration analyze-strategy', and take Dingxi agricultural science and technology park as object to carry out this research. First, this dissertation adopts human-economic geography, behavioural geography, agricultural geography and communication theory, design the models and the concepts in the pre-during-post phases of farmers' adoption, and constructs the theoretic frame of demonstration research. Then, adopts GIS visional show, structural equation model, Logit model, DEA model,SFA model and other methods, analyzes the peasants' technology perception and their trend influences, technological demands, technological-deciding factors, technological efficiency and farm-living effects, summarizes the laws and characteristics of different phases of adoptions. At last, it discusses the parks'technological diffusion system and provides the strategies to technological diffusion. The main contents and conclusions are as follows:
(1) The discussion about the farmers'technological adoption. This dissertation puts forward the concept of farmers'technological perception and designs its'measuring dimension, modifies the traditional variables of farmers'technological adoption, introduces technological efficiency and living frame theory into analysis of farmers'technological adoption effects, constructs the whole-process research frame of pre-during-post views about technological adoption, and then sets relative models and chooses the testing methods.
(2) Typical analysis of technological center, spread districts and technological types in case study area. It shows that Dingxi agricultural science and technology park has got a lot of achievement on the technology research and diffusion, such as technological research and innovation, farming technologies, dry farming technologies and leading enterprises driving the development of regional agriculture. It can be seen clearly from potato farming patterns' evolution in Gansu province and the whole nation, this case area is an important potato production district in our country, and its dominance has been higher and higher. Dingxi agricultural science and technology park has developed a series of relatively muturing potato farming technologies.
(3) Measurement of variable dimensions about farmers'technological perception, and verification of technological perception's effects on technological adoption preferences based on structure equation model. It shows that the6potential variables and the21measuring variables have significant differences on score average. Those potential variables'rank is perceptional values, adoption intention, technological risks, perceptional interests, perceptional costs and health risk perception. The main factors which effect farmers' perceptional values and technological adoption intendance is technological profits. While technological cost, technological risks and health risks during using have very limited effects. Farmers'genders, ages, education level and other personal characteristics, the living area topography, the park's radiation zones and whether to participate in the cooperatives (the leading enterprises base) and other variables also have different significant effects on the6methods which past verification.
(4) Analysis of farmers'technological demand preference and worry factors after adoption, and the technological and non-technological factors which effect farmers'technological adoption. It shows that there is high accordance on farmers between the most demanding technologies and the worry factors after adoption; technological properties itself has some effects on farmers' technological adoption; decision makers' ages, education level, risk preferences and other personalities, family farmland, quantity of labour force, income and family production and nature endowments, allowance and the landforms are all have different effects on the adoption of intermediate non-poison potato farming technology and more commercial film laminating technology.
(5) The measurements of farmers' technological efficiency through DEA and SFA methods, and analyze farmers'living effects on technological adoption through field research method. It indicates that there is a large improving space of complex farming efficiency, pure technological efficiency and scale efficiency of sample farmers;56.72%farmers are in scale increasing return stage, and can improve efficiency by increasing farming scale; there is over-input of all factors; capital, labours and field have positive effects on technical efficiency; farming scale and radiation circle have significant effects on technical efficiency; decision makers'education level, family labours, family average farmland, whether is in leading enterprises base, choosing cost all have significant effects. The differences between average efficiency of the2methods suggests that there is low-level trap of farmers' technological efficiency in case district. Farmers'living effects of technological adoption indicates, farmers' living form has formed technological path-dependence effects.
(6) The empirical study indicates that, technological diffusion of Dingxi agricultural science and technology park conform to theory about innovation spatial diffusion and distance attenuation rule in geography. Now in the spatial system which is composed of the park and it's radiation area, have already formed an primary'core-peripheral'structure, the park and it's secondary parks as the core elementary, and the surrounding agricultural production area as the peripheral area. The analysis about farmers'adoption of agricultural technology in different radiation circle also shows that, technological diffusion of the park has significant distance attenuation rule.
(7) Based on the previous study, this dissertation puts forward the countermeasures to promote the technology diffusion of the park and doption of the farmers. The main contents as follows:reconstruction of diffusion system, education and measurement of farmers' technical conception, regulation of technology market, efficiency of technical service, investment to the farmers'human capital, organization and scale of agricultural production, effect of technology adoption, arrangement about the technology service node, etc.
本文遵循“理论构建-实证分析-对策建议”的研究逻辑,以甘肃定西国家农业科技园及其辐射区为对象进行研究。首先借鉴人文-经济地理学、行为地理学、农业经济学及传播学等相关学科理论,对农户技术采用前、中、后三个阶段进行了相关概念界定和研究模型设定,构建实证研究的理论框架；继而采用GIS空间可视化表达、结构方程模型、Logit模型、DEA模型及SFA模型等方法,对辐射区马铃薯种植技术优势度,农户技术感知及其采用倾向影响,技术需求与决策影响因素,技术效率及农户生计效应等进行实证分析,总结出农户技术采用不同阶段的规律及特征；最后对以农户为中心的科技园技术扩散系统进行探讨并提出促进技术扩散的对策,主要研究内容和结论如下：
(1)对农户的技术采用过程进行理论探讨。提出农户技术感知的概念并对其测量维度进行设计,对传统的农户技术采用影响变量进行修正,将技术效率和生计框架理论引入到农户的技术采用效应分析中,构建从技术采用前、中、后三个视角进行全过程研究的理论框架,并进行相关模型设定和检验方法选择。
(2)对案例区技术扩散源、扩散区域和技术类型进行典型性分析。结果表明：定西国家农业科技园在科技研发和创新能力、种植技术、旱作农业技术和龙头企业带动区域农业发展方面都已取得显著成就；由全国和甘肃省两个尺度上的马铃薯种植格局演变分析可知,案例区为我国马铃薯主产区之一,区域优势度不断提升；定西国家农业科技园已经形成较为成熟的马铃薯种植成套技术。
(3)对农户技术感知的相关维度进行测度,并运用结构方程模型验证技术感知对技术采用倾向的影响。结果表明：6个潜变量和21个测量变量得分均值存在显著差异,各潜变量得分排序为感知价值、采用意愿、技术风险、感知利益、感知成本和健康风险感知；影响农户技术感知价值和技术采用倾向大小的主要因素为技术收益,而技术成本、技术风险及使用过程中的健康风险对上述两者的影响极为有限；农户的性别、年龄、学历等个人属性特征,其所在区域的地形、园区辐射圈层以及是否参加合作社(龙头企业基地)等变量在通过验证的6条路径上也各有不同的显著性影响。
(4)对农户的技术需求优先度和采用后担心因素,影响农户技术采用决策的技术与非技术因素进行分析。结果显示：农户在最需要的技术和使用后的担心因素方面具有较高的一致性；技术属性本身对农户技术采用有一定影响；决策者的年龄、学历、风险偏好等个体特质,家庭耕地面积、劳动力和收入状况等家庭农业生产禀赋条件,是否有补贴及所处地形条件等因素对偏中间性的脱毒薯种技术和偏商品性的地膜覆盖技术采用的影响存在较大差异。
(5)采用数据包络和随机前沿生产函数两种方法对农户的技术采用效率进行测度,进而运用田野调查法分析技术采用的农户生计效应。结果表明：样本农户马铃薯种植的综合技术效率、纯技术效率和规模效率都存在较大的优化空间；56.72%的农户处于规模报酬递增阶段,可通过增加种植规模实现技术效率的提升；各投入要素都存在一定的冗余现象；资本、劳动力和土地三项投入对技术效率均有正向贡献；种植规模和所处辐射圈层对技术效率有显著影响；技术效率损失受决策者学历水平、家庭劳动力数量、人均耕地面积、是否为龙头企业基地户和机会成本等多因素的影响；两种方法的效率均值差异表明,案例区农户技术效率存在一定的“低水平陷阱”现象；技术采用的农户生计效应分析表明,农户生计模式已形成较强的技术路径依赖效应。
(6)本文的实证研究表明,农业技术扩散符合地理学的创新空间扩散与距离衰减规律理论。目前案例区地域空间内,已经形成由定西国家农业科技园及其次级园区为技术核心区,周边农业生产区为外围区的农业技术扩散“核心-外围”结构。不同辐射圈层农户的技术采用过程分析也表明,科技园的技术扩散具有较显著的距离衰减规律效应。
(7)在前文研究的基础上,提出了促进定西国家农业科技园技术扩散及农户技术采用的举措。主要围绕扩散系统重构、农户技术感知教育与测度、技术市场监管、技术服务效率、农户人力资本投入、农业生产组织化和规模化、技术采用效应及农业技术服务节点空间布局等八个方面展开探讨。
Agricultural science and technology parks have the functions of technology integration, research, design and diffusion, undertaking the responsibility to lead the development of the region. Farmers are the final adopters of agricultural technologies and the exercisers of the transformation of agricultural technology into productivity. Therefore, research on the farmers' technical adoptions under the background of agricultural science and technology parks' technical diffusions is very important, it can guide farmers' technical perceptions, technical adoption and arrangements of productive essentials, and also can provide important references to the agricultural science and technology parks on agricultural technologies' researching and diffusing. Thus, based on the lack of realization about farmers' technical adoption's characteristics and laws, this dissertation takes farmers into the consideration of the systemic frame of'agricultural science and technology parks-radiation districts' to research the process and characteristics of farmers'adoption, through normative and demonstrative researches combining with quantities and qualities researches, aimed to provide references of technical adoption and diffusion to the parks, extend the perspective of park economic research in economic geography, and advance the application of communication theory in agricultural technology diffusion.
This dissertation follows the logic of'theory construction-demonstration analyze-strategy', and take Dingxi agricultural science and technology park as object to carry out this research. First, this dissertation adopts human-economic geography, behavioural geography, agricultural geography and communication theory, design the models and the concepts in the pre-during-post phases of farmers' adoption, and constructs the theoretic frame of demonstration research. Then, adopts GIS visional show, structural equation model, Logit model, DEA model,SFA model and other methods, analyzes the peasants' technology perception and their trend influences, technological demands, technological-deciding factors, technological efficiency and farm-living effects, summarizes the laws and characteristics of different phases of adoptions. At last, it discusses the parks'technological diffusion system and provides the strategies to technological diffusion. The main contents and conclusions are as follows:
(1) The discussion about the farmers'technological adoption. This dissertation puts forward the concept of farmers'technological perception and designs its'measuring dimension, modifies the traditional variables of farmers'technological adoption, introduces technological efficiency and living frame theory into analysis of farmers'technological adoption effects, constructs the whole-process research frame of pre-during-post views about technological adoption, and then sets relative models and chooses the testing methods.
(2) Typical analysis of technological center, spread districts and technological types in case study area. It shows that Dingxi agricultural science and technology park has got a lot of achievement on the technology research and diffusion, such as technological research and innovation, farming technologies, dry farming technologies and leading enterprises driving the development of regional agriculture. It can be seen clearly from potato farming patterns' evolution in Gansu province and the whole nation, this case area is an important potato production district in our country, and its dominance has been higher and higher. Dingxi agricultural science and technology park has developed a series of relatively muturing potato farming technologies.
(3) Measurement of variable dimensions about farmers'technological perception, and verification of technological perception's effects on technological adoption preferences based on structure equation model. It shows that the6potential variables and the21measuring variables have significant differences on score average. Those potential variables'rank is perceptional values, adoption intention, technological risks, perceptional interests, perceptional costs and health risk perception. The main factors which effect farmers' perceptional values and technological adoption intendance is technological profits. While technological cost, technological risks and health risks during using have very limited effects. Farmers'genders, ages, education level and other personal characteristics, the living area topography, the park's radiation zones and whether to participate in the cooperatives (the leading enterprises base) and other variables also have different significant effects on the6methods which past verification.
(4) Analysis of farmers'technological demand preference and worry factors after adoption, and the technological and non-technological factors which effect farmers'technological adoption. It shows that there is high accordance on farmers between the most demanding technologies and the worry factors after adoption; technological properties itself has some effects on farmers' technological adoption; decision makers' ages, education level, risk preferences and other personalities, family farmland, quantity of labour force, income and family production and nature endowments, allowance and the landforms are all have different effects on the adoption of intermediate non-poison potato farming technology and more commercial film laminating technology.
(5) The measurements of farmers' technological efficiency through DEA and SFA methods, and analyze farmers'living effects on technological adoption through field research method. It indicates that there is a large improving space of complex farming efficiency, pure technological efficiency and scale efficiency of sample farmers;56.72%farmers are in scale increasing return stage, and can improve efficiency by increasing farming scale; there is over-input of all factors; capital, labours and field have positive effects on technical efficiency; farming scale and radiation circle have significant effects on technical efficiency; decision makers'education level, family labours, family average farmland, whether is in leading enterprises base, choosing cost all have significant effects. The differences between average efficiency of the2methods suggests that there is low-level trap of farmers' technological efficiency in case district. Farmers'living effects of technological adoption indicates, farmers' living form has formed technological path-dependence effects.
(6) The empirical study indicates that, technological diffusion of Dingxi agricultural science and technology park conform to theory about innovation spatial diffusion and distance attenuation rule in geography. Now in the spatial system which is composed of the park and it's radiation area, have already formed an primary'core-peripheral'structure, the park and it's secondary parks as the core elementary, and the surrounding agricultural production area as the peripheral area. The analysis about farmers'adoption of agricultural technology in different radiation circle also shows that, technological diffusion of the park has significant distance attenuation rule.
(7) Based on the previous study, this dissertation puts forward the countermeasures to promote the technology diffusion of the park and doption of the farmers. The main contents as follows:reconstruction of diffusion system, education and measurement of farmers' technical conception, regulation of technology market, efficiency of technical service, investment to the farmers'human capital, organization and scale of agricultural production, effect of technology adoption, arrangement about the technology service node, etc.
引文
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