RTA对FDI影响的第三国效应
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摘要
上世纪90年代,区域贸易协定(RTAs)的数量激增,并呈现出与以往不同的新特色:一是,RTAs涉及的领域不再只局限于货物贸易,而是扩展到投资、服务贸易、知识产权等多个领域;二是,RTAs更多的是在南北型(发展中国家和发达国家)和南南型(发展中国家内)国家间签订;三是,许多新达成的RTAs体现了“双边主义”特点。与此同时,世界FDI流量也迅速增加,甚至超过了世界贸易和GDP的增速。区域经济一体化和国际直接投资已成为世界上最引人瞩目的两大经济现象。许多国家认识到,区域经济合作能引起市场的扩大、竞争程度的加深和政策信誉的提高,这些因素是构成投资的动力机制,而投资是经济增长的一个关键环节,因此RTA的达成被当作一种吸引外国直接投资的方式而备受青睐。然而,更重要的问题是,在全球化的今天,一个国家或地区的发展从来不单纯是其个体行为,而是越来越明显地受到周边国家政策的影响。达成RTA和吸引FDI亦是如此。越来越多的实践表明,一个国家能否吸引FDI、能够吸引多少FDI不仅要取决于自身发展有多快,更重要的是取决于与周边地区相比其发展有多快。这似乎是一个简单的现象和道理,但不幸的是,传统的研究把这一问题忽略掉了。因此本文以知识——物质资本模型为基础,分析了RTA对FDI影响的第三国效应,即考察一国周边经济体的RTA策略对该国吸引FDI的空间影响。
本文共分七章。第一章为导论,简要介绍了本文的研究背景、意义、研究的主要问题、研究方法、创新点和结构安排。第二章主要是对区域经济一体化与国际直接投资理论演变的综述,从投资创造与投资转移、跨国公司直接投资理论、贸易与投资的关系等不同视角归纳和总结了该领域的理论和实证研究。第三章详细分析了RTA与FDI的发展现状、特点及趋势,以及作为国际直接投资主体的跨国公司在区域经济一体化不断深化的过程中,对投资模式、投资战略等做出的调整。并进一步对RTA对FDI的影响机制展开了研究,对RTA与FDI的关系进行了统计分析。第四章回顾了与知识资本模型相关的文献,运用知识资本模型构建了一个3×3×2的知识——物质资本模型,通过对跨国公司投资决策的分析,重点考察了RTA与FDI的第三国效应。第五章以知识物质资本模型为基础,对美国在亚太地区的直接投资进行了空间计量分析,验证了RTA对FDI存在显著的第三国效应。第六章对中国在亚太区域内参与RTA现状及吸引FDI的效果进行了分析,并针对中国参与RTA的特点,对中国如何通过RTA的网络布局吸引FDI提出了相关政策建议。第七章给出了本文的主要结论和对未来研究的展望。
The number of RTAs increased sharply in 1990s, and the new characters of RTAs are different from tradition. Firstly, the scope of RTA not only includes goods trades, but also expands to more wide fields, including investments, service trades, intellectual property, etc. Secondly, more and more RTAs are signed between the developing countries and the developed countries (South-North) or among developing countries(South-South). Finally, a bilateralism aspect appears in a lot of RTAs. At the same time, FDI flows in the world soared too, and exceeded the growth speed of international trade and GDP. Regional economic integration and FDI are very important economic phenomena which are the focus of the world attention. Many countries recognize that regional economic cooperation can lead to larger market, more competitive environment and better reputation of government policy, which are the driver forces to FDI that plays an important role in the economic growth. Thus, RTAs become more popular as a way to attract FDI. However, the more important question is, the development of one country is not only individual activity but also is influenced by the neighbors' policies. The same is RTA or FDI. More and more facts reveal that, whether one country can attract FDI and how much it can attract are decided by its comparative developing speed with neighbors, rather than how fast it develops by itself. It's a simple truth, but unfortunately, the traditional research ignored this. So this thesis analyzes the third-country effects of RTA on FDI, i.e., the spatial effects of one country's neighbors' RTA strategies on its attractiveness to FDI.
The thesis consists of seven chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the research background, meaning, methods and objective of this study, as well as the innovation and the structure of the thesis. Chapter 2 reviews the literatures about regional economic integration and foreign direct investment from different aspects including investment creation and investment transfer, FDI theory of MNC, the relationship between trade and FDI, etc. Chapter 3 analyzes the development, characters and trends of RTA and FDI respectively, as well as MNCs' investment strategies evolving with the progress of regional economic integration. Moreover, we study the mechanism how RTA influence FDI and perform statistical analysis about the relationships between RTA and FDI. Chapter 4 reviews the literatures of knowledge capital model at first, and constructs a knowledge-physical capital model to analyze the investment decisions of MNCs, and focuses on researching the third-country effects of RTA on FDI. In chapter 5, based on the knowledge-physical capital model, spatial econometrics analysis on the United States' FDI in Asia-Pacific verifies that there exist significant third-country effects. Chapter 6 describes our country's participation in RTA and the effects on attracting FDI, and then proposes some advices about China's RTA policy. At last, the thesis summarizes the main conclusions of the study and gives the outline for further research in chapter 7.
本文共分七章。第一章为导论,简要介绍了本文的研究背景、意义、研究的主要问题、研究方法、创新点和结构安排。第二章主要是对区域经济一体化与国际直接投资理论演变的综述,从投资创造与投资转移、跨国公司直接投资理论、贸易与投资的关系等不同视角归纳和总结了该领域的理论和实证研究。第三章详细分析了RTA与FDI的发展现状、特点及趋势,以及作为国际直接投资主体的跨国公司在区域经济一体化不断深化的过程中,对投资模式、投资战略等做出的调整。并进一步对RTA对FDI的影响机制展开了研究,对RTA与FDI的关系进行了统计分析。第四章回顾了与知识资本模型相关的文献,运用知识资本模型构建了一个3×3×2的知识——物质资本模型,通过对跨国公司投资决策的分析,重点考察了RTA与FDI的第三国效应。第五章以知识物质资本模型为基础,对美国在亚太地区的直接投资进行了空间计量分析,验证了RTA对FDI存在显著的第三国效应。第六章对中国在亚太区域内参与RTA现状及吸引FDI的效果进行了分析,并针对中国参与RTA的特点,对中国如何通过RTA的网络布局吸引FDI提出了相关政策建议。第七章给出了本文的主要结论和对未来研究的展望。
The number of RTAs increased sharply in 1990s, and the new characters of RTAs are different from tradition. Firstly, the scope of RTA not only includes goods trades, but also expands to more wide fields, including investments, service trades, intellectual property, etc. Secondly, more and more RTAs are signed between the developing countries and the developed countries (South-North) or among developing countries(South-South). Finally, a bilateralism aspect appears in a lot of RTAs. At the same time, FDI flows in the world soared too, and exceeded the growth speed of international trade and GDP. Regional economic integration and FDI are very important economic phenomena which are the focus of the world attention. Many countries recognize that regional economic cooperation can lead to larger market, more competitive environment and better reputation of government policy, which are the driver forces to FDI that plays an important role in the economic growth. Thus, RTAs become more popular as a way to attract FDI. However, the more important question is, the development of one country is not only individual activity but also is influenced by the neighbors' policies. The same is RTA or FDI. More and more facts reveal that, whether one country can attract FDI and how much it can attract are decided by its comparative developing speed with neighbors, rather than how fast it develops by itself. It's a simple truth, but unfortunately, the traditional research ignored this. So this thesis analyzes the third-country effects of RTA on FDI, i.e., the spatial effects of one country's neighbors' RTA strategies on its attractiveness to FDI.
The thesis consists of seven chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the research background, meaning, methods and objective of this study, as well as the innovation and the structure of the thesis. Chapter 2 reviews the literatures about regional economic integration and foreign direct investment from different aspects including investment creation and investment transfer, FDI theory of MNC, the relationship between trade and FDI, etc. Chapter 3 analyzes the development, characters and trends of RTA and FDI respectively, as well as MNCs' investment strategies evolving with the progress of regional economic integration. Moreover, we study the mechanism how RTA influence FDI and perform statistical analysis about the relationships between RTA and FDI. Chapter 4 reviews the literatures of knowledge capital model at first, and constructs a knowledge-physical capital model to analyze the investment decisions of MNCs, and focuses on researching the third-country effects of RTA on FDI. In chapter 5, based on the knowledge-physical capital model, spatial econometrics analysis on the United States' FDI in Asia-Pacific verifies that there exist significant third-country effects. Chapter 6 describes our country's participation in RTA and the effects on attracting FDI, and then proposes some advices about China's RTA policy. At last, the thesis summarizes the main conclusions of the study and gives the outline for further research in chapter 7.
引文
1 Yeyati E.L.,Stein E.,Daude C.,2003.The FTAA and the Location of FDI,www.utdt.edu/departamentos/empresarial/cif/cif.htm。
3 考虑的因素包括:集聚效应、劳动力成本和质量、投资环境、开放度、其他(时间效应、自然禀赋、税收等)。
4 WTO,The Changing Landscape of Regional Trade Agreements,2005.
5 WTO,The changing landscope of Regional Trade Agreement,2005.
6 从联合国2006年出版的资料分析,对EIA没有比较准确的定义,联合国出版的文件也承认这一点,但从联合国出版物的统计表可以看出EIA涉及的具体内容,即服务贸易自由化。WTO的统计往往将EIA与FTA 或者与CU统计在一起,可以看出FTA、CU是E1A的基础,唯一的一个例外是《欧洲经济区》(European Economic Area,EEA),这一EIA是孤立存在的。
7 根据WTO网站数据整理而得。
10 双边是指两个经济体之间,经济体可以理解为国家/地区或区域集团。
11 WTO,The changing landscape of Regional Trade Agreement:2006 update。
26 UNCTAD.Trade and Development Report 2007.
27 东盟成立初期共有六个成员国即马来西亚、印度尼西亚、新加坡、泰国、菲律宾、文莱,之后,1995年越南加入东盟,1997年缅甸、老挝、柬埔寨加入东盟;目前东盟共十个成员国。
28 李荣林,宫占奎,孟夏.《中国与东盟自由贸易区研究》.天津:天津大学出版社.2007年4月出版。
36 UNCTAD,Trade and Development Report,2007.
37 UNCTAD,Trade and Developmem Report,2007.
41 经验研究中经常采用高中以上教育的总入学率作为知识资本的替代变量。但在本文的样本国家中,这一指标可得数据非常少。因此,我们采用高技术出口在整个出口中所占比重作为知识资本的替代变量。可以合理的认为,这一指标与知识资本的相关性是比较高的。
42 网址为http://www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/bdd/distances.htm。
47 网址为http://www.govindicators.org。
48 从因子载荷来看,其他主成分分别体现了政府治理指标的不同维度。比如,在第二、三、四、五主成分的因子载荷中,VA、PV、RQ、GE分别占据绝对比重(载荷为0.9285、0.8103、0.6378、0.6283)。
49 网址为http://www.heritage.org/index。
52 《温家宝:中国欢迎区域外国家与东亚合作联系》,http://news.phoenixtv.com/20051214
53 《温家宝:中国绝不会在东亚地区谋求支配地位》,http://news.phoenixtv.com/20051214
55 中华人民共和国商务部,2007中国对外贸易形势报告。
56 陆建人,论中国的区域合作政策,《当代亚太》,2005年第10期。
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3 考虑的因素包括:集聚效应、劳动力成本和质量、投资环境、开放度、其他(时间效应、自然禀赋、税收等)。
4 WTO,The Changing Landscape of Regional Trade Agreements,2005.
5 WTO,The changing landscope of Regional Trade Agreement,2005.
6 从联合国2006年出版的资料分析,对EIA没有比较准确的定义,联合国出版的文件也承认这一点,但从联合国出版物的统计表可以看出EIA涉及的具体内容,即服务贸易自由化。WTO的统计往往将EIA与FTA 或者与CU统计在一起,可以看出FTA、CU是E1A的基础,唯一的一个例外是《欧洲经济区》(European Economic Area,EEA),这一EIA是孤立存在的。
7 根据WTO网站数据整理而得。
10 双边是指两个经济体之间,经济体可以理解为国家/地区或区域集团。
11 WTO,The changing landscape of Regional Trade Agreement:2006 update。
26 UNCTAD.Trade and Development Report 2007.
27 东盟成立初期共有六个成员国即马来西亚、印度尼西亚、新加坡、泰国、菲律宾、文莱,之后,1995年越南加入东盟,1997年缅甸、老挝、柬埔寨加入东盟;目前东盟共十个成员国。
28 李荣林,宫占奎,孟夏.《中国与东盟自由贸易区研究》.天津:天津大学出版社.2007年4月出版。
36 UNCTAD,Trade and Development Report,2007.
37 UNCTAD,Trade and Developmem Report,2007.
41 经验研究中经常采用高中以上教育的总入学率作为知识资本的替代变量。但在本文的样本国家中,这一指标可得数据非常少。因此,我们采用高技术出口在整个出口中所占比重作为知识资本的替代变量。可以合理的认为,这一指标与知识资本的相关性是比较高的。
42 网址为http://www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/bdd/distances.htm。
47 网址为http://www.govindicators.org。
48 从因子载荷来看,其他主成分分别体现了政府治理指标的不同维度。比如,在第二、三、四、五主成分的因子载荷中,VA、PV、RQ、GE分别占据绝对比重(载荷为0.9285、0.8103、0.6378、0.6283)。
49 网址为http://www.heritage.org/index。
52 《温家宝:中国欢迎区域外国家与东亚合作联系》,http://news.phoenixtv.com/20051214
53 《温家宝:中国绝不会在东亚地区谋求支配地位》,http://news.phoenixtv.com/20051214
55 中华人民共和国商务部,2007中国对外贸易形势报告。
56 陆建人,论中国的区域合作政策,《当代亚太》,2005年第10期。
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