开放经济条件下的金融风险分析
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摘要
20世纪80年代以来，许多国家金融体系都出现严重问题，金融风险与金融危机问题已经成为无论是发达国家，还是发展中国家都需要动用大量经济资源才能解决的难题。随着世界各国经济总体开放程度日益提高，金融风险形成原因之复杂，影响程度之深也与日俱增，对金融风险的深入探讨，不仅具有重要的理论意义，而且具有深刻的现实意义。
作为对开放经济条件下金融风险的一个系统探讨，从信息经济学角度来看，风险源于信息的不完全和不对称，信息不完全引发外生性金融风险，而信息不对称引发内生性金融风险。而在经济领域内考虑风险的理论意义，则须上溯至分工与分工的演进，分工及私人信息的产生是经济领域内信息不对称的根源。随着现代经济的发展，做为其基本标志和主要基石，金融逐步在经济中占据了“操纵”地位，风险进一步向金融风险的演进。同时，金融自身的演进导致金融风险，随着经济金融化的发展和金融自发演进的加剧，金融风险日益在风险的世界里占据主要地位。
开放性是现代经济的另一大特征，在开放经济条件下，资源可以得到更优的配置，而开放经济下的金融开放也使得金融效率得以提高；但是，在开放经济条件下，金融风险——无论外生性的，还是内生性的——都将显著增加。同时，在开放经济条件下，国际资本流动也表现出新的特征。
金融风险具有显著的扩散性和传染性，其在金融主体之间的传递具有一些共性特征，这就是金融风险的传导机制：信息不对称程度的增加使金融市场上的逆向选择与道德风险增加，造成金融资产价格的波动。而金融资产的价格有一种逐步偏离均衡价格的自促成机制。价格的偏离，无论是过高还是过低，容易形成过于乐观或者过于悲观的预期，由于羊群效应及从众心理，形成突然性的、穿透起始点的回归过程，危机爆发。在开放经济条件下，金融危机又会通过贸易、资本流动以及预期等因素，向其他国家扩散。这一机制可以在上世纪日本金融危机当中得到验证。对金融风险传导机制的研究是防范和化解金融风险的主要理论基础，深入理解金融风险如何形成、如何传导才能对症下药，构建合理的金融防范控制体系，因而，对金融风险传导机制的研究是文章的主体，也是其主要创新点所在。
我国处于经济转轨的特殊时期，这一过程中金融风险的形成和演进具有一些新的特征，面对着金融业的完全开放，对金融风险的防范更是我国经济工作的重中之重。对我国金融风险的防范，要从我国的具体情况出发，因地制宜，探索一条具有中国特色的金融安全道路。
From 1980's, serious problems occurred in financial systems of many countries. Financial risk and financial crisis have become a problem that cost a great amount of economic resource to deal with, and the situation exists in not only developing countries but also developed countries. With the gradually increasing of economic opening degree in worldwide, complexity of forming cause and influence of financial risk are enhancing. As a result, the study on financial risk is of significance not only on theoretic level but also on practical level.
As a systemic analysis of financial risk on the condition of open economy, in the angle of information economics, risk roots from inadequacy and asymmetry of information. Inadequacy of information arises of exogenous risk, and asymmetry of information arises of endogenetic risk. Considering theoretic meanings of risk in economy field, division of labor and its evolvement are involved. Occurrence of division of labor and private information are the root of asymmetry of information in economic field. With the development of modern economy, as its symbol and foundation, finance occupies "control" position, and risk father evolves into financial risk. At the same time, finance evolving by itself result in financial risk also. With the development of economic financiation and enhancement of finance evolving by itself, financial risk occupies chief position in risk world increasingly.
Opening is another character of modern economy. On the condition of open economy, resource can gain a better distribution, and financial opening can improve financial efficiency; However , on the condition of open economy, financial risk, whether exogenous risk or endogenetic risk, increases observably.
Financial risk has evident diffusibility and infectivity. There is common feature in the way by which financial risk spreads in financial field, and that is financial risk conducting mechanism: asymmetry of information enhance adverse selection and moral hazard in financial market, which result in fluctuation of financial asset price. Price of financial assets has a self-inducing mechanism which make it depart equilibrium level. Price departure , whether overhigh or overlow, might lead to overoptimistic expectation or overpessimistic expectation. Due to flock effect and herd behavior, price regression occurs, which usually happens suddenly and penetrates start point. Consequently, crisis breaks out. On the condition of open economy, financial crisis spreads to other countries through international trade, capital flow and expectation. The mechanism can be illustrated by financial crisis in Japan in the end of 20 century. The study on financial risk conducting mechanism is the main basis of financial risk prevention. To know how financial risk to form, conduct is necessary to build reasonable financial prevention system. So, the study on financial risk conducting mechanism is the key part and main creativity of this paper.
Our country is in a special term of economic shunt, so forming and evolvement of financial risk have some new features. Faced with complete opening of financial industry, financial risk prevention is of more importance in economic work of our country. To prevent financial risk in our country, we should stand on the objective situation of our country, explore a China-characteristic road.
作为对开放经济条件下金融风险的一个系统探讨，从信息经济学角度来看，风险源于信息的不完全和不对称，信息不完全引发外生性金融风险，而信息不对称引发内生性金融风险。而在经济领域内考虑风险的理论意义，则须上溯至分工与分工的演进，分工及私人信息的产生是经济领域内信息不对称的根源。随着现代经济的发展，做为其基本标志和主要基石，金融逐步在经济中占据了“操纵”地位，风险进一步向金融风险的演进。同时，金融自身的演进导致金融风险，随着经济金融化的发展和金融自发演进的加剧，金融风险日益在风险的世界里占据主要地位。
开放性是现代经济的另一大特征，在开放经济条件下，资源可以得到更优的配置，而开放经济下的金融开放也使得金融效率得以提高；但是，在开放经济条件下，金融风险——无论外生性的，还是内生性的——都将显著增加。同时，在开放经济条件下，国际资本流动也表现出新的特征。
金融风险具有显著的扩散性和传染性，其在金融主体之间的传递具有一些共性特征，这就是金融风险的传导机制：信息不对称程度的增加使金融市场上的逆向选择与道德风险增加，造成金融资产价格的波动。而金融资产的价格有一种逐步偏离均衡价格的自促成机制。价格的偏离，无论是过高还是过低，容易形成过于乐观或者过于悲观的预期，由于羊群效应及从众心理，形成突然性的、穿透起始点的回归过程，危机爆发。在开放经济条件下，金融危机又会通过贸易、资本流动以及预期等因素，向其他国家扩散。这一机制可以在上世纪日本金融危机当中得到验证。对金融风险传导机制的研究是防范和化解金融风险的主要理论基础，深入理解金融风险如何形成、如何传导才能对症下药，构建合理的金融防范控制体系，因而，对金融风险传导机制的研究是文章的主体，也是其主要创新点所在。
我国处于经济转轨的特殊时期，这一过程中金融风险的形成和演进具有一些新的特征，面对着金融业的完全开放，对金融风险的防范更是我国经济工作的重中之重。对我国金融风险的防范，要从我国的具体情况出发，因地制宜，探索一条具有中国特色的金融安全道路。
From 1980's, serious problems occurred in financial systems of many countries. Financial risk and financial crisis have become a problem that cost a great amount of economic resource to deal with, and the situation exists in not only developing countries but also developed countries. With the gradually increasing of economic opening degree in worldwide, complexity of forming cause and influence of financial risk are enhancing. As a result, the study on financial risk is of significance not only on theoretic level but also on practical level.
As a systemic analysis of financial risk on the condition of open economy, in the angle of information economics, risk roots from inadequacy and asymmetry of information. Inadequacy of information arises of exogenous risk, and asymmetry of information arises of endogenetic risk. Considering theoretic meanings of risk in economy field, division of labor and its evolvement are involved. Occurrence of division of labor and private information are the root of asymmetry of information in economic field. With the development of modern economy, as its symbol and foundation, finance occupies "control" position, and risk father evolves into financial risk. At the same time, finance evolving by itself result in financial risk also. With the development of economic financiation and enhancement of finance evolving by itself, financial risk occupies chief position in risk world increasingly.
Opening is another character of modern economy. On the condition of open economy, resource can gain a better distribution, and financial opening can improve financial efficiency; However , on the condition of open economy, financial risk, whether exogenous risk or endogenetic risk, increases observably.
Financial risk has evident diffusibility and infectivity. There is common feature in the way by which financial risk spreads in financial field, and that is financial risk conducting mechanism: asymmetry of information enhance adverse selection and moral hazard in financial market, which result in fluctuation of financial asset price. Price of financial assets has a self-inducing mechanism which make it depart equilibrium level. Price departure , whether overhigh or overlow, might lead to overoptimistic expectation or overpessimistic expectation. Due to flock effect and herd behavior, price regression occurs, which usually happens suddenly and penetrates start point. Consequently, crisis breaks out. On the condition of open economy, financial crisis spreads to other countries through international trade, capital flow and expectation. The mechanism can be illustrated by financial crisis in Japan in the end of 20 century. The study on financial risk conducting mechanism is the main basis of financial risk prevention. To know how financial risk to form, conduct is necessary to build reasonable financial prevention system. So, the study on financial risk conducting mechanism is the key part and main creativity of this paper.
Our country is in a special term of economic shunt, so forming and evolvement of financial risk have some new features. Faced with complete opening of financial industry, financial risk prevention is of more importance in economic work of our country. To prevent financial risk in our country, we should stand on the objective situation of our country, explore a China-characteristic road.
引文
1 Paul Krugman. A Model of Balance Payment Crisis. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking Vol.11
2 David de Meza, David C. Webb. Risk , Adverse Selection and Capital Market Failure. The Economic Journal. 1990; 100(399)
3 Joseph E.Stiglitz, Andrew Weiss . Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information. The American Economic Review. 1981;71(3)
4 J.PH. Bouchaud. Elements for a theory of financial risks . NBER Working Paper
5 Kelso Ptrick, R.duman, Barry L. a veblenian view of Minsky financial crises theory. international journal of social economics
6 Joshua Aizenman. Capital mobility in a Second best world-moral hazard with costly financial intermediation. NBER Working Paper
7 Robert C. Feenstra, Tzu-Han Yang and Gary G.Hamilton . Business groups and product variety in trade evidence from South Korea, Taiwan and Japan. Journal of International Economics 48. 1999
8 Frederic S.Mishkin. understanding financial crises: a developing country perspective. NBER Working Paper
9 Kee-Hong Bae, G. Andrew Karolyi, Rene M.Stuiz . a new approach to measuring financial contagion . NBERWorking Paper
10 Masson. P. Contagion — Monsoonal Effects , spillovers and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria . IMF Working Paper No 142
11 Bhagwati, Jagdish. Why Free Capital Mobility May be Hazardous to Your Health: Lessons from the Latest Financial Crisis . IMF Financial Development. June 1996.
12 Garber.P. Sand In the Wheels of Foreign Exchange Markets: A Skeptical Note . The Economic Journal. Vol. 105, 1995
13 Yoshitomi.M, Ohno.K. Capital Account Crisis and Cedit Contraction. ADB Institute Working Paper . 2000
14 Michael Taylor, Alex Fleming. Integrated Financial Supervision: lessons from Northen European Experience. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Novenber 1999.
15 Neil Courtis. How countries Supervise Their Banks, Insures and Securities Markets. Central Banking Publication Ltd. 1999
16 Lawrence J. White.. The Role of Financial Regulation in a World of Deregulation and Market Forces. Stern School of Business New York University. November 1999
17 Kose John, Anthony Saunders, Lemma.W.Senbet. A Theory of Regulation and Management Compensation. The Review of Financial Studies. Vol. 13, 2000
18 Sachs J.and Radelets. The on set of The East Asian Financial Crisis. NBER Working Paper
19 Fabio Canova. The sources of financial crises, Per-and post-fed evidence. international economics review. August 1999
20 Flood.R.and Nancy Marison. Perspectives on The Recent Currency Crisis Literature. NBER Working.Paper No.6380
21 高伟．当前我国金融风险总体评估报告．北方经济．2005(6)
22 黄宗远．国家金融风险的形成及防范．经济问题2005(2)
23 陈延喜，杨小安．宏观调控中金融风险隐患及防范．金融理论与实践．2005(1)
24 中国人民银行南宁中心支行金融稳定课题组．建立金融风险预警机制的若干构想．南方金融．2005(2)
25 张韶明．金融危机传导的示范效应与竞争性贬值效应分析．世界经济研究．2003(3)
26 郑鸣．开放经济条件下中国金融安全问题．统计与预测．2003(2)
27 张晓琴，冯莉．论金融创新与金融风险管理．商业研究．2005(2)
28 胡松明．论开放经济环境下我国宏观金融调控的有效性．北京师范大学学报(人文社会科学版)．2002(1)
29 段敏芳．上世纪九十年代以来我国金融风险的实证研究．武汉金融．2005(1)
30 任碧云．我国系统性金融风险隐患加重原因探析．现代财经．2005(1)
31 张博．系统性金融风险的防范与控制．理论导刊．2005(1)
32 中国人民银行研究局国际金融研究处．重要国家和地区金融业务和监管体系的发展和演变(上)．金融参考．2000(4)
33 项卫星，傅立文．金融监管中的信息与激励——对现代金融监管理论发展的一个综述．国际金融研究．2005(4)
34 傅立文，何卫江．现代金融监管理论的发展与发展中国家的监管制度选择．上海金融．2005(4)
35 (日)中村岳．从保险业的角度分析美国金融制度改革与金融服务法．安田综合研究所研究报告．1998
36 (日)内藤启介．日本版大爆炸后的金融法制．富士综合研究所研究报告．1998
37 杨小凯．经济学原理．中国社会科学出版社．1998
38 杨小凯．分工与专业化——文献综述．商务印书馆．1999
39 陈郁．《企业制度与市场组织——交易费用经济学文选》．上海三联出版社，上海人民出版社．1996
40 自黄淳，何伟．信息经济学．经济科学出版社．1998
41 (美)A．诺思等．西方世界的兴起．华夏出版社．1999
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44 世界银行．世界经济展望．中国财政经济出版社．1999
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46 (美)尼古拉斯·R·拉迪．中国未完成的经济改革．中国发展出版社．1999
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48 刘立峰．宏观金融风险．中国发展出版社．2000
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50 孔祥毅等．百年金融制度变迁与金融协调．中国社会科学出版社．2002
51 霍再强．现代金融风险管理．科学出版社．2004
52 刘锡良．中国经济转轨时期金融安全问题研究．中国金融出版社．2004
53 董保民，王勇．信息经济学讲义．中国人民大学出版社．2005
54 (美)约瑟夫P·丹尼尔斯，戴维D·范卢斯．国际货币与金融经济学．机械工业出版社．2003
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56 (美)保罗·克鲁格曼，茅瑞斯·奥博斯法尔德．国际经济学．中国人民出版社．2003
2 David de Meza, David C. Webb. Risk , Adverse Selection and Capital Market Failure. The Economic Journal. 1990; 100(399)
3 Joseph E.Stiglitz, Andrew Weiss . Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information. The American Economic Review. 1981;71(3)
4 J.PH. Bouchaud. Elements for a theory of financial risks . NBER Working Paper
5 Kelso Ptrick, R.duman, Barry L. a veblenian view of Minsky financial crises theory. international journal of social economics
6 Joshua Aizenman. Capital mobility in a Second best world-moral hazard with costly financial intermediation. NBER Working Paper
7 Robert C. Feenstra, Tzu-Han Yang and Gary G.Hamilton . Business groups and product variety in trade evidence from South Korea, Taiwan and Japan. Journal of International Economics 48. 1999
8 Frederic S.Mishkin. understanding financial crises: a developing country perspective. NBER Working Paper
9 Kee-Hong Bae, G. Andrew Karolyi, Rene M.Stuiz . a new approach to measuring financial contagion . NBERWorking Paper
10 Masson. P. Contagion — Monsoonal Effects , spillovers and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria . IMF Working Paper No 142
11 Bhagwati, Jagdish. Why Free Capital Mobility May be Hazardous to Your Health: Lessons from the Latest Financial Crisis . IMF Financial Development. June 1996.
12 Garber.P. Sand In the Wheels of Foreign Exchange Markets: A Skeptical Note . The Economic Journal. Vol. 105, 1995
13 Yoshitomi.M, Ohno.K. Capital Account Crisis and Cedit Contraction. ADB Institute Working Paper . 2000
14 Michael Taylor, Alex Fleming. Integrated Financial Supervision: lessons from Northen European Experience. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Novenber 1999.
15 Neil Courtis. How countries Supervise Their Banks, Insures and Securities Markets. Central Banking Publication Ltd. 1999
16 Lawrence J. White.. The Role of Financial Regulation in a World of Deregulation and Market Forces. Stern School of Business New York University. November 1999
17 Kose John, Anthony Saunders, Lemma.W.Senbet. A Theory of Regulation and Management Compensation. The Review of Financial Studies. Vol. 13, 2000
18 Sachs J.and Radelets. The on set of The East Asian Financial Crisis. NBER Working Paper
19 Fabio Canova. The sources of financial crises, Per-and post-fed evidence. international economics review. August 1999
20 Flood.R.and Nancy Marison. Perspectives on The Recent Currency Crisis Literature. NBER Working.Paper No.6380
21 高伟．当前我国金融风险总体评估报告．北方经济．2005(6)
22 黄宗远．国家金融风险的形成及防范．经济问题2005(2)
23 陈延喜，杨小安．宏观调控中金融风险隐患及防范．金融理论与实践．2005(1)
24 中国人民银行南宁中心支行金融稳定课题组．建立金融风险预警机制的若干构想．南方金融．2005(2)
25 张韶明．金融危机传导的示范效应与竞争性贬值效应分析．世界经济研究．2003(3)
26 郑鸣．开放经济条件下中国金融安全问题．统计与预测．2003(2)
27 张晓琴，冯莉．论金融创新与金融风险管理．商业研究．2005(2)
28 胡松明．论开放经济环境下我国宏观金融调控的有效性．北京师范大学学报(人文社会科学版)．2002(1)
29 段敏芳．上世纪九十年代以来我国金融风险的实证研究．武汉金融．2005(1)
30 任碧云．我国系统性金融风险隐患加重原因探析．现代财经．2005(1)
31 张博．系统性金融风险的防范与控制．理论导刊．2005(1)
32 中国人民银行研究局国际金融研究处．重要国家和地区金融业务和监管体系的发展和演变(上)．金融参考．2000(4)
33 项卫星，傅立文．金融监管中的信息与激励——对现代金融监管理论发展的一个综述．国际金融研究．2005(4)
34 傅立文，何卫江．现代金融监管理论的发展与发展中国家的监管制度选择．上海金融．2005(4)
35 (日)中村岳．从保险业的角度分析美国金融制度改革与金融服务法．安田综合研究所研究报告．1998
36 (日)内藤启介．日本版大爆炸后的金融法制．富士综合研究所研究报告．1998
37 杨小凯．经济学原理．中国社会科学出版社．1998
38 杨小凯．分工与专业化——文献综述．商务印书馆．1999
39 陈郁．《企业制度与市场组织——交易费用经济学文选》．上海三联出版社，上海人民出版社．1996
40 自黄淳，何伟．信息经济学．经济科学出版社．1998
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