服务业国际转移及其溢出效应研究
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摘要
20世纪90年代以来,随着经济全球化进程的加快和产业的国际转移,世界经济正在向服务型经济转型,服务业在世界经济活动中逐渐取得主导地位,也成为衡量一国国际竞争力的重要指标。据世界银行统计,世界服务业增加值占GDP的比重平均已达67%,发达国家更是达到80%以上,服务业就业比重也达到70%-80%的水平。而中国2005年服务业占GDP的比重为40.3%,2006年服务业增加值占GDP的比重比2005年下降了0.5个百分点,2007年比2006年又下降了0.3个百分点。怎样在服务业渐趋开放的背景下抓住服务业国际转移的契机,有效吸引服务业FDI,优化中国服务业结构,促进产业升级,成为具有重大理论和现实意义的重要课题。传统的产业转移理论都是以制造业为研究对象的,其对于服务业国际转移的解释具有很大的局限性。本文结合服务业国际转移的概况,对于传统的产业转移理论进行了丰富和发展。同时,结合中国承接服务业国际转移的情况,对于服务业国际转移对东道国的溢出效应进行了理论和实证分析,提出了一些有助于中国服务业发展的对策建议。
本文共分6个部分:
第1部分,绪论。提出了研究的背景和意义,对于本文的研究对象进行了界定,对国内外研究现状进行了综述,指出了本文的研究方法和创新点及不足之处。
第2部分,国际产业转移理论评析。分析了产业转移动因和转移方式理论,指出传统产业转移理论对于服务业的适用性及不足。
第3部分,服务业国际转移概况。分六个部分分别对服务业国际转移相关情况进行了系统的分析。第一部分介绍了服务业国际转移现状;第二部分分析了服务业国际转移迅速发展的条件;第三部分分析了服务业国际转移的主要影响因素;第四部分指出与制造业国际转移相比较,服务业国际转移具有的特点;第五部分列举了主要的服务业转出国和承接国;第六部分指出了服务业国际转移的发展趋势。
第4部分,服务业国际转移溢出效应。从服务业国际转移对东道国、母国和整个世界影响三个方面进行论述。首先,论述了服务业国际转移对东道国溢出效应。服务业国既?贫远拦哂凶时净?包括物质资本和人力资本)、技术溢出、产业结构升级和改善就业效应。其次,论述了服务业国际转移对母国的溢出效应。服务业国际转移对母国具有促进经济增长、促进贸易和改善就业效应。最后,论述了服务业国际转移对整个世界的溢出效应。服务业国际转移在整个世界范围内促进产业分工、促进贸易和投资、促进全球服务市场整合和企业重组、推动经济全球化发展和进一步调整着发达国家与发展中国家在国际分工中的利益分配。
第5部分,服务业国际转移对中国溢出效应的实证分析。运用因果检验和回归分析等计量工具,结合中国服务业利用外资数据,对服务业国际转移对东道国溢出效应进行了实证检验。同时,结合生产性服务业典型企业——花旗银行和消费性服务业典型企业——麦当劳的实践,进一步分析了服务业国际转移东道国的溢出效应。
第6部分,中国服务业国际转移发展现状和对策。对中国发展服务业国际转移现状进行了说明,结合前文的分析,提出了一些有助于中国服务业发展的对策建议。
本文的可能创新之处:
1.已有的产业转移理论都是建立在制造业国际转移基础之上的,本文指出了这些理论对服务业国际转移的适用之处,并针对服务业国际转移的特点,对现有的理论进行了补充。如:劳动密集型产业转移理论认为成本是影响制造业国际转移的最主要因素,但是服务业国际转移不只是为了节省成本,为全球市场提供差异化的产品也是一个很重要因素,所以服务业也向低成本国家之外的其他国家转移;“中心-外围”理论认为发达国家向发展中国家转让技术的同时攫取了巨额利润,阻碍了发展中国家的资本积累。但是服务业跨国公司用于硬技术研究和开发的投资不多,而以软技术(主要是现代的服务手段和管理方法)见长,服务产品的生产和消费难以分割,所有业务都要通过对客户的服务来实现,从母公司生产中分离出技能相对低的那部分服务的可能性很小,因而很难进行技术保密,服务业跨国公司向海外分支机构转移的技术更安全、更接近母公司水平,能切实帮助发展中国家逐渐达到优质高效的服务水准。因此,本文认为服务业国际转移较制造业转移具有更大的溢出效应。
2.目前大多数研究关注的是产业转移的产业内溢出效应,即发生在同一产业内的外国企业与当地企业之间,尤其是在价值链的环节之间存在分工关系的外国企业与当地企业间各类形式的正式与非杖?亓１疚亩杂诜褚倒首撇导湟绯鲂в辛吮匾乃得鳌！?.明确提出服务业双向转移的概念,对服务业内向转移和外向转移进行了全面分析。国内此前的研究集中于服务业国际转移对承接国的影响,即内向化转移,对于服务业国际转移对转出国的影响研究尚不多见。本文全面分析服务业国际转移对东道国、母国和整个世界的溢出效应。
4.对我国如何利用服务业国际转移的有利时机,发挥自身的比较优势,带动经济全面、协调、可持续的发展提出对策建议。
本文只是从总体上分析了服务业国际转移溢出效应。由于受到本人能力,以及资料和时间的限制,本文未能对服务业各个行业在国际间转移的溢出效应进行具体的针对性分析,有待在以后的研究中加以深入。
Since 1990s,with the acceleration of globalization and the international transfer of industry,the world economy is in transition to service-based economy,and as a key indicator of a country's international competitiveness,the service industry has gradually achieved a leading position in the world economy. According to the statistics of World Bank, the added value of service in the world accounting for the proportion of GDP has reached 67 percent on average. And it is more than 80 percent and the proportion of employment in service is also up to 70%-80% in developed countries. But in China the number is only 40.3% in 2005, the added value of service accounting for the proportion of GDP in 2006 decreases 0.5 percentage than that in 2005 and 0.3 percentage in 2007 than that in 2006. How to seize the chance of the international transfer of service industry in the background of the gradually opening up of service industry,to attract the FDI in service,to optimize the structure of China's service sector and to upgrade industrial structure is to be a major theoretical and practical subject.
The traditional theoretical studies on industry transfer are based on manufacturing sector and there is great limitation of their explanation for the international transfer of service sector. This paper enriches and develops the traditional theories on transfer of industry combined with the situation of international transfer of service. At the same time,it analyzes the spillover effects of international transfer of service to the host country theoretically and empirically and proposes s??countermeasures being favor to China combined with the situation in China.
This paper is divided into six parts:
Part one, introduction. In this part, it introduces the background and significance of research, defines the object of research in this paper, summarizes the research progress home and abroad and points out the research methods and innovative points and shortcomings.
Part two, analysis of the theory of international industrial transfer. In this part, it analyzes the theory of the reason and way of industrial transfer and points out applicability and shortcoming of traditional theories for service industry.
Part three, profile of the international transfer of service industry. In this part, it analyzes systematically the situation related to the international transfer of service from six parts. The first part describes the current status of the international transfer of service industry; The second part analyzes the conditions of rapid development of the international transfer of service industry; The third part analyzes main factors affecting the international transfer of service industry; The fourth part points out the international transfer of service industry has higher requirements compared with the manufacturing industry; The fifth part lists the major countries transferring and taking in service; The sixth part points out the trend of the international transfer of service industry.
Part four, the spillover effects of the international transfer of service industry. In this part, it demonstrates the impact from three aspects of host country, home country and the whole world. First of all, it demonstrates the spillover effects of the international transfer of service industry to the host country, including the effects of capital accumulation (including physical capital and human capital), technology spillovers, industrial upgrading and improving employment. Secondly, it demonstrates the spillover effects of the international transfer of service industry to the home country, including the effects of promoting economic growth and trade and improving employment. Finally, it demonstrates the spillover effects of the international transfer of service industry to the whole world, including the effects of promoting industrial division, trade and investment, global market integration and corporate restructuring, the development of economic globalizatio??d further adjustment of the distribution of benefits between the developed and developing countries in international division.
Part five, Empirical analysis of the spillover effects of China taking in the international transfer of service industry. In this part, it examines empirically the spillover effects of the international transfer of service industry to the host country using the tools of causality test and regression analysis, combined with the data of Chinese service industry using foreign capital. At the same time, it carries out further analysis of the spillover effects of the international transfer of service industry to the host country combined with the practice of the typical producer service enterprise (Citibank) and consumer services enterprise (McDonald’s).
Part six, the situation and countermeasures of China's developing of the international transfer of service industry. In this part, it describes the situation of China's developing of the international transfer of service industry and puts forward some countermeasures and proposals of China's development of the international transfer of service industry combined with the analysis above.
In this paper, the possible innovations are as follows:
1. The existing theories on industrial transfer are based on manufacturing sector. This paper points out the applicability of these theories for service and supplements these theories according to the characteristics of the international transfer of service. Such as: the theory on transfer of labor-intensive industries holds that cost is the most important factor affecting the industrial transfer. The international transfer of service is not only for cost savings, but for providing differentiated products for the global market. So service also transfers outside low-cost countries;“Center– periphery”theory considers that developed countries seize the huge profits at the same time of transferring technology to developing countries, hindering the accumulation of capital in developing countries. The research and development of service multinational enterprises using for hard technology is not too much but they are good at soft technology (mainly the means of modern services and management methods). The goods and production of service is difficult to separate, so all business is realized by servicing the customers. It is hard to separate relatively low skills from the production of the parent company. Thus it is difficult to carry out technological security. The technology transferred by service transnational corporations to overseas subsidiaries is more secure, close to the level??parent company, which can effectively help developing countries to gradually achieve high quality and high standards of service. Therefore, this paper argues that the international transfer of service has a greater spillover effects than that of manufacturing sector.
2. Nowadays most of the research is concerned about the spillovers of transfer of industry within the industry, namely occurring in the same industry between foreign enterprises and local enterprises, especially all kinds of formal and informal linkages between foreign companies and local enterprises with relationship of division in the value chain of links. This paper carries out necessary analysis on the spillover effects of industrial transfer among industries.
3. This paper puts forward clearly the concept of two-way transfer of service and analyzes comprehensively the inward and outward transfer of service. The former domestic research focuses on the impact of international transfer of service on host countries, namely inward transfer, and the research on the impact of international transfer of service on home countries is still rare. This paper analyzes the spillover effects of the international transfer of service to host and home countries and the world as a whole comprehensively.
4. This paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for China making full use of the favorable opportunity of the international transfer of service, exerting its own comparative advantage and promoting economic comprehensive, harmonious and sustainable development.
This paper analyzes the spillover effects of the international transfer of service as a whole. As a result of the restriction of my ability, as well as information and time, this paper fails to target analyze all sectors of the service sector in the international transfer, to be in later study in depth.
本文共分6个部分:
第1部分,绪论。提出了研究的背景和意义,对于本文的研究对象进行了界定,对国内外研究现状进行了综述,指出了本文的研究方法和创新点及不足之处。
第2部分,国际产业转移理论评析。分析了产业转移动因和转移方式理论,指出传统产业转移理论对于服务业的适用性及不足。
第3部分,服务业国际转移概况。分六个部分分别对服务业国际转移相关情况进行了系统的分析。第一部分介绍了服务业国际转移现状;第二部分分析了服务业国际转移迅速发展的条件;第三部分分析了服务业国际转移的主要影响因素;第四部分指出与制造业国际转移相比较,服务业国际转移具有的特点;第五部分列举了主要的服务业转出国和承接国;第六部分指出了服务业国际转移的发展趋势。
第4部分,服务业国际转移溢出效应。从服务业国际转移对东道国、母国和整个世界影响三个方面进行论述。首先,论述了服务业国际转移对东道国溢出效应。服务业国既?贫远拦哂凶时净?包括物质资本和人力资本)、技术溢出、产业结构升级和改善就业效应。其次,论述了服务业国际转移对母国的溢出效应。服务业国际转移对母国具有促进经济增长、促进贸易和改善就业效应。最后,论述了服务业国际转移对整个世界的溢出效应。服务业国际转移在整个世界范围内促进产业分工、促进贸易和投资、促进全球服务市场整合和企业重组、推动经济全球化发展和进一步调整着发达国家与发展中国家在国际分工中的利益分配。
第5部分,服务业国际转移对中国溢出效应的实证分析。运用因果检验和回归分析等计量工具,结合中国服务业利用外资数据,对服务业国际转移对东道国溢出效应进行了实证检验。同时,结合生产性服务业典型企业——花旗银行和消费性服务业典型企业——麦当劳的实践,进一步分析了服务业国际转移东道国的溢出效应。
第6部分,中国服务业国际转移发展现状和对策。对中国发展服务业国际转移现状进行了说明,结合前文的分析,提出了一些有助于中国服务业发展的对策建议。
本文的可能创新之处:
1.已有的产业转移理论都是建立在制造业国际转移基础之上的,本文指出了这些理论对服务业国际转移的适用之处,并针对服务业国际转移的特点,对现有的理论进行了补充。如:劳动密集型产业转移理论认为成本是影响制造业国际转移的最主要因素,但是服务业国际转移不只是为了节省成本,为全球市场提供差异化的产品也是一个很重要因素,所以服务业也向低成本国家之外的其他国家转移;“中心-外围”理论认为发达国家向发展中国家转让技术的同时攫取了巨额利润,阻碍了发展中国家的资本积累。但是服务业跨国公司用于硬技术研究和开发的投资不多,而以软技术(主要是现代的服务手段和管理方法)见长,服务产品的生产和消费难以分割,所有业务都要通过对客户的服务来实现,从母公司生产中分离出技能相对低的那部分服务的可能性很小,因而很难进行技术保密,服务业跨国公司向海外分支机构转移的技术更安全、更接近母公司水平,能切实帮助发展中国家逐渐达到优质高效的服务水准。因此,本文认为服务业国际转移较制造业转移具有更大的溢出效应。
2.目前大多数研究关注的是产业转移的产业内溢出效应,即发生在同一产业内的外国企业与当地企业之间,尤其是在价值链的环节之间存在分工关系的外国企业与当地企业间各类形式的正式与非杖?亓１疚亩杂诜褚倒首撇导湟绯鲂в辛吮匾乃得鳌！?.明确提出服务业双向转移的概念,对服务业内向转移和外向转移进行了全面分析。国内此前的研究集中于服务业国际转移对承接国的影响,即内向化转移,对于服务业国际转移对转出国的影响研究尚不多见。本文全面分析服务业国际转移对东道国、母国和整个世界的溢出效应。
4.对我国如何利用服务业国际转移的有利时机,发挥自身的比较优势,带动经济全面、协调、可持续的发展提出对策建议。
本文只是从总体上分析了服务业国际转移溢出效应。由于受到本人能力,以及资料和时间的限制,本文未能对服务业各个行业在国际间转移的溢出效应进行具体的针对性分析,有待在以后的研究中加以深入。
Since 1990s,with the acceleration of globalization and the international transfer of industry,the world economy is in transition to service-based economy,and as a key indicator of a country's international competitiveness,the service industry has gradually achieved a leading position in the world economy. According to the statistics of World Bank, the added value of service in the world accounting for the proportion of GDP has reached 67 percent on average. And it is more than 80 percent and the proportion of employment in service is also up to 70%-80% in developed countries. But in China the number is only 40.3% in 2005, the added value of service accounting for the proportion of GDP in 2006 decreases 0.5 percentage than that in 2005 and 0.3 percentage in 2007 than that in 2006. How to seize the chance of the international transfer of service industry in the background of the gradually opening up of service industry,to attract the FDI in service,to optimize the structure of China's service sector and to upgrade industrial structure is to be a major theoretical and practical subject.
The traditional theoretical studies on industry transfer are based on manufacturing sector and there is great limitation of their explanation for the international transfer of service sector. This paper enriches and develops the traditional theories on transfer of industry combined with the situation of international transfer of service. At the same time,it analyzes the spillover effects of international transfer of service to the host country theoretically and empirically and proposes s??countermeasures being favor to China combined with the situation in China.
This paper is divided into six parts:
Part one, introduction. In this part, it introduces the background and significance of research, defines the object of research in this paper, summarizes the research progress home and abroad and points out the research methods and innovative points and shortcomings.
Part two, analysis of the theory of international industrial transfer. In this part, it analyzes the theory of the reason and way of industrial transfer and points out applicability and shortcoming of traditional theories for service industry.
Part three, profile of the international transfer of service industry. In this part, it analyzes systematically the situation related to the international transfer of service from six parts. The first part describes the current status of the international transfer of service industry; The second part analyzes the conditions of rapid development of the international transfer of service industry; The third part analyzes main factors affecting the international transfer of service industry; The fourth part points out the international transfer of service industry has higher requirements compared with the manufacturing industry; The fifth part lists the major countries transferring and taking in service; The sixth part points out the trend of the international transfer of service industry.
Part four, the spillover effects of the international transfer of service industry. In this part, it demonstrates the impact from three aspects of host country, home country and the whole world. First of all, it demonstrates the spillover effects of the international transfer of service industry to the host country, including the effects of capital accumulation (including physical capital and human capital), technology spillovers, industrial upgrading and improving employment. Secondly, it demonstrates the spillover effects of the international transfer of service industry to the home country, including the effects of promoting economic growth and trade and improving employment. Finally, it demonstrates the spillover effects of the international transfer of service industry to the whole world, including the effects of promoting industrial division, trade and investment, global market integration and corporate restructuring, the development of economic globalizatio??d further adjustment of the distribution of benefits between the developed and developing countries in international division.
Part five, Empirical analysis of the spillover effects of China taking in the international transfer of service industry. In this part, it examines empirically the spillover effects of the international transfer of service industry to the host country using the tools of causality test and regression analysis, combined with the data of Chinese service industry using foreign capital. At the same time, it carries out further analysis of the spillover effects of the international transfer of service industry to the host country combined with the practice of the typical producer service enterprise (Citibank) and consumer services enterprise (McDonald’s).
Part six, the situation and countermeasures of China's developing of the international transfer of service industry. In this part, it describes the situation of China's developing of the international transfer of service industry and puts forward some countermeasures and proposals of China's development of the international transfer of service industry combined with the analysis above.
In this paper, the possible innovations are as follows:
1. The existing theories on industrial transfer are based on manufacturing sector. This paper points out the applicability of these theories for service and supplements these theories according to the characteristics of the international transfer of service. Such as: the theory on transfer of labor-intensive industries holds that cost is the most important factor affecting the industrial transfer. The international transfer of service is not only for cost savings, but for providing differentiated products for the global market. So service also transfers outside low-cost countries;“Center– periphery”theory considers that developed countries seize the huge profits at the same time of transferring technology to developing countries, hindering the accumulation of capital in developing countries. The research and development of service multinational enterprises using for hard technology is not too much but they are good at soft technology (mainly the means of modern services and management methods). The goods and production of service is difficult to separate, so all business is realized by servicing the customers. It is hard to separate relatively low skills from the production of the parent company. Thus it is difficult to carry out technological security. The technology transferred by service transnational corporations to overseas subsidiaries is more secure, close to the level??parent company, which can effectively help developing countries to gradually achieve high quality and high standards of service. Therefore, this paper argues that the international transfer of service has a greater spillover effects than that of manufacturing sector.
2. Nowadays most of the research is concerned about the spillovers of transfer of industry within the industry, namely occurring in the same industry between foreign enterprises and local enterprises, especially all kinds of formal and informal linkages between foreign companies and local enterprises with relationship of division in the value chain of links. This paper carries out necessary analysis on the spillover effects of industrial transfer among industries.
3. This paper puts forward clearly the concept of two-way transfer of service and analyzes comprehensively the inward and outward transfer of service. The former domestic research focuses on the impact of international transfer of service on host countries, namely inward transfer, and the research on the impact of international transfer of service on home countries is still rare. This paper analyzes the spillover effects of the international transfer of service to host and home countries and the world as a whole comprehensively.
4. This paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for China making full use of the favorable opportunity of the international transfer of service, exerting its own comparative advantage and promoting economic comprehensive, harmonious and sustainable development.
This paper analyzes the spillover effects of the international transfer of service as a whole. As a result of the restriction of my ability, as well as information and time, this paper fails to target analyze all sectors of the service sector in the international transfer, to be in later study in depth.
引文
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