网络零售条件下的易逝品动态定价研究
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摘要
随着互联网的普及,网络零售迅速崛起,预计2010年中国网络零售总额超过5000亿,占社会零售总额的3%。易逝品的网络零售的定价研究就显得越来越重要。本文介绍了网络零售带给易逝品动态定价的新变化,从广义和狭义两个方面界定了易逝品的范畴,分别对国内外传统易逝品动态定价和网络经济条件下产品定价做了综述。在细化分析易逝品感知价值衰减对厂商期望收益影响的基础上建立了网络零售条件下寡头垄断厂商面对策略消费者的一般动态定价模型,并以指数分布保留价格和双寡头垄断为特定条件对模型进行了求解。
本文主要的研究工作及结果包括以下两个方面:
(1)细化分析了易逝品感知价值衰减对厂商动态定价和期望收益的影响。分别建立了连续和离散连个情况下,策略消费者对易逝品感知价值衰减对厂商期望收益影响的评价模型,并以连续模型为基准分析了价格改变次数对厂商期望收益的影响。数值算例显示,消费者感知价值衰减时,即使厂商采取相应的最优定价策略,厂商期望收益下降幅度仍然可能达到30%;如果厂商忽略消费者感知价值衰减,其损失可能高达60%;这充分说明了消费者策略行为的重要性,为后文进一步建立网络零售条件下考虑消费者策略行为和寡头垄断竞争的的动态定价模型提供了理论基础。
(2)在建立网络零售条件下寡头垄断厂商面对异质的策略消费者的一般动态定价模型的基础上,进一步构建双寡头垄断厂商面对同质的策略消费者且消费者保留价格随时间衰减时的易逝品动态定价模型,并求得最优定价策略。
最后本文从库存优化、产品替代性、非完全市场信息和需求学习的角度展望了未来研究的方向。
With the rapid growing of Internet user numbers, E-commerce is thriving. The research of dynamic pricing of perishable goods selling on internet is becoming more and more important. We gave a brief introduction of the changes brought about by internet retailing in the fields of dynamic pricing of perishable goods in the beginning, made the definition of perishable goods both in a generalized and limited sense, and present the key factors in the construction of dynamic pricing model for perishable goods. We summarized the pricing strategy in E-commerce as well. Several dynamic pricing models were built respectively to analyze the effect of reserve price depreciation on firms’expected revenue in a detailed way and get the optimal pricing strategy for oligopolistic firms selling differentiated perishable goods to multiple groups of strategic consumers
Our focus includes two parts as follows:
(1) We analyze the effects of the consumer reserve price depreciation on firms’expected revenue, we designed both continuous time and discrete model incorporating goods’depreciation and showed how much losses sellers would experience when ignoring the goods’ depreciation through numeric experiments. Continuous time model was used as a benchmark and the relation between number of price changes and sellers’expected revenue was also studied through numeric experiments in this paper, that is, losses experienced by sellers may be up to 60% when ignoring the decline of customers’reservation price. To some extent this finding provides theoretical foundation for the next research.
(2) We formulated generalized dynamic pricing model for oligopolistic firms selling differentiated perishable goods to strategic consumers and to further our study, we present the dynamic pricing model for duopolistic firms facing homogeneous strategic consumers with time-based declining reserve prices and derived the optimal pricing strategy.
In the end we proposed several promising areas for further study, like inventory optimization, products substitute, non-perfect information markets and demand learning.
本文主要的研究工作及结果包括以下两个方面:
(1)细化分析了易逝品感知价值衰减对厂商动态定价和期望收益的影响。分别建立了连续和离散连个情况下,策略消费者对易逝品感知价值衰减对厂商期望收益影响的评价模型,并以连续模型为基准分析了价格改变次数对厂商期望收益的影响。数值算例显示,消费者感知价值衰减时,即使厂商采取相应的最优定价策略,厂商期望收益下降幅度仍然可能达到30%;如果厂商忽略消费者感知价值衰减,其损失可能高达60%;这充分说明了消费者策略行为的重要性,为后文进一步建立网络零售条件下考虑消费者策略行为和寡头垄断竞争的的动态定价模型提供了理论基础。
(2)在建立网络零售条件下寡头垄断厂商面对异质的策略消费者的一般动态定价模型的基础上,进一步构建双寡头垄断厂商面对同质的策略消费者且消费者保留价格随时间衰减时的易逝品动态定价模型,并求得最优定价策略。
最后本文从库存优化、产品替代性、非完全市场信息和需求学习的角度展望了未来研究的方向。
With the rapid growing of Internet user numbers, E-commerce is thriving. The research of dynamic pricing of perishable goods selling on internet is becoming more and more important. We gave a brief introduction of the changes brought about by internet retailing in the fields of dynamic pricing of perishable goods in the beginning, made the definition of perishable goods both in a generalized and limited sense, and present the key factors in the construction of dynamic pricing model for perishable goods. We summarized the pricing strategy in E-commerce as well. Several dynamic pricing models were built respectively to analyze the effect of reserve price depreciation on firms’expected revenue in a detailed way and get the optimal pricing strategy for oligopolistic firms selling differentiated perishable goods to multiple groups of strategic consumers
Our focus includes two parts as follows:
(1) We analyze the effects of the consumer reserve price depreciation on firms’expected revenue, we designed both continuous time and discrete model incorporating goods’depreciation and showed how much losses sellers would experience when ignoring the goods’ depreciation through numeric experiments. Continuous time model was used as a benchmark and the relation between number of price changes and sellers’expected revenue was also studied through numeric experiments in this paper, that is, losses experienced by sellers may be up to 60% when ignoring the decline of customers’reservation price. To some extent this finding provides theoretical foundation for the next research.
(2) We formulated generalized dynamic pricing model for oligopolistic firms selling differentiated perishable goods to strategic consumers and to further our study, we present the dynamic pricing model for duopolistic firms facing homogeneous strategic consumers with time-based declining reserve prices and derived the optimal pricing strategy.
In the end we proposed several promising areas for further study, like inventory optimization, products substitute, non-perfect information markets and demand learning.
引文
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[2]Tsiros M., Heilman.The Effect of Expiration Dates and Perceived Risk on Purchasing Behavior in Grocery Store Perishable Categories[J]. Journal of Marketing. 2005, 69, 114-129.
[3]Litwak David. So Many Programs, So Little Data.Supermarket Business [J].1997, 52 (9):165–69.
[4]Smith Stephen, Achabal Dale.Clearance Pricing and Inventory Policies for Retail Chains [J]. Management Science. 1998, 44:285-300.
[5]曹洪,周江.季节性产品动态定价研究[J],数量经济技术经济研究, 2004, 3:122-125. [ 6 ]Weatherford L., S. Bodily. A Taxonomy and Research Overview of Perishable-asset Revenue Management: Yield Management, Overbooking and Pricing[J]. Operation Research. 1992,40 (5):831-844.
[7]Feng Y., G. Gallego. Optimal Starting Times for End-of-season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares[J]. Management Science. 1995, 41(8): 1371-1391.
[8]Bitran G. R., H. K. Wadhwa. Some Structural Properties of The Seasonal Product Pricing Problem .Working paper, MIT Sloan School of Management. 1996:1-33. [ 9 ]Lazear E.P. Retail Pricing and Clearance Sales[J]. American. Economy. Review.1986, 76(1): 14-32.
[10]Elmaghraby W., P. Keskinocak.Dynamic Pricing in the Presence of Inventory Considerations: Research Overview, Current Practices and Future Directions[J]. Management Science. 2003, 49(10):1287-1309.
[11] W.M. Kincaid, D.A. Darling..An Inventory Pricing Problem[J]. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Application. 1963, 7:183-208.
[12]Gallego G., G. van Ryzin.Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand Over Finite Horizons [J]. Management Science.1994, 40(8): 999-1020.
[13]Feng Y., G. Gallego.Optimal Starting Times for End-of-season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares [J]. Management Science. 1995, 41(8): 1371-1391.
[14]Bitran G., S. V. Mondschein. Periodic Pricing of Seasonal Products in Retailing[J]. Management Science. 1997, 43: 63-79.
[15]Bitran G., R. Caldentey, S. Mondschein..Coordinating clearance markdown sales of seasonal products in retail chains[J]. Operations Research. 1998, 46(5): 609-624.
[16] Feng Y., G. Gallego.Perishable asset revenue management with Markovian time dependent demand intensities [J]. Management Science. 2000, 46(7): 941-956. [ 17 ]Feng Y., B. Xiao. Optimal policies of yield management with multiple predetermined prices[J]. Operations Research. 2000(a), 48(2): 332-343.
[18]Feng Y., B. Xiao. A continuous-time yield management model with multiple prices and reversible price changes [J]. Management Science, 2000(b), 46(5): 644-657 [ 19 ]Zhao Y.S., Zheng. Optimal dynamic pricing for perishable assets with nonhomogeneous demand[J]. Management Science. 2000, 46(3):375-388.
[20]R.E. Chatwin. Optimal dynamic pricing of perishable products with stochastic demand and a finite set of prices[J]. European Journal of Operational Research. 2000, 125:149-174. [ 21 ]McGill J., G. van Ryzin. Revenue management: research overview and prospects[J]. Transportation Science. 1999, 33:233-256. [ 22 ]Bitran G., R Caldentey. An overview of pricing models for revenue management[J]. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2003, 5(3): 203-229.
[23]Erdem T., M.P. Keane. Decision-making Under Uncertainty: Capturing Dynamic Brand Choice Processes in Turbulent Consumer Goods Markets[J]. Marketing Science 1996,15(1):1-20.
[24]Gonul F., K. Srinivasan. Estimating the Impact of Consumer Expectations of Coupons on Purchase Behavior: A Dynamic Structural Model[J]. Marketing Science. 1996,15(3): 262-279.
[25]Shen Z., X. Su. Customer behavior modeling in revenue management and auctions: A review and new research opportunities[J]. Production Operariont Management. 2007, 16(6):713-728.
[26]Y.P. Zhou, M. Fan, M. Cho..On the threshold purchasing behavior of customers facing dynamically priced perishable products. Working paper. University ofWashinton. 2005.
[27]X. Xu, W.J. Hopp..Implications of strategic customer behavior for revenue management[J]. Working paper. The State University of New Jersey. 2005.
[28]Su, X. Intertemporal pricing with strategic customer behavior[J]. Management Science. 2007, 53(5): 726-741.
[29]Aviv Y., A. Pazgal. Optimal pricing of seasonal products in the presence of forward-looking customers[J]. Manufacturing Service Operation Management. 2008, 10(3): 339-359.
[30]Sriram Dasu, Chunyang Tong, Dynamic pricing when consumers are strategic: Analysis of Posted and contingent pricing schemes[J], European Journal of Operation Research, 2009 204(2010) 662-671.
[31]Levin Y., J. McGill, M. Nediak. Optimal dynamic pricing of perishable items by a monopolist facing strategic consumers[J]. Production and Operation Management 2010, 19(1):40-60.
[32]Levin Y., J. McGill, M. Nediak. Dynamic pricing in the presence of strategic consumers and oligopolistic competition[J]. Management Sciendce. 2009, 55: 32-46.
[33]刘晓蜂,黄沛.网络环境下动态定价机制与消费者购买行为的实证分析,2009, 2009年JMS中国营销科学学术年会暨博士生论坛.
[34]Granot D., F. Granot, A Dynamic Pricing Model under Duopoly Competition, Working paper, Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia. 2007.
[35]Gallego G., M. Hu. Finite horizon dynamic pricing of perishable assets under competition. Working paper, Columbia University, New York. 2007.
[36]Lin K., S. Sibdari. Dynamic price competition with discrete customer choices[J]. European Journal of Operation Research. 2009, 197(3):969-980.
[37]Dong L., P. Kouvelis, Z. Tian. Dynamic pricing and inventory control of substitute products[J]. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management. 2009, 11: 317-339.
[38]Ancarani F,Shankar v. Price Levels and Price Dispersion Within and Across Multiple Retailer Types:Further Evidence and Extension.Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science,2004,32(2):176-187.
[39]王华.网络经济下零售商价格竞争问题研究[学位论文].中国农业大学. 2006.
[40]Bakos Y. Reducing Buyer Search Costs:Implications for Electronic Marketplaces. Management Science. 1997, 43(12):1676-1692.
[41]Pan X, Ratchford B T, Shankar V. Price Competition between Pure PIay E-tailer and Bricks-and-Clicks E-taiter[J]. Applied Microeconomic. 2003, 11: 29-61.
[42]Scholten P, Smith S A.Price Dispersion Then and Now: Evidence from Retail and E-tail Markets. Advances in Applied Microeconomics. 2002, 11: 63-88.
[43]Brynjolfsson E, Smith MD. Frictionless Commerce? A Comparison of Intemet and Conventional Retailers. Management Science. 2000, 46(4): 563-587.
[44]Sorensen A. Equilibrium Price Dispersion in Retail Markets for Prescription Drugs. Journal of Political Economy. 2000, 108(4): 833-850.
[45]Chevalier J, Goolsbee A. Measuring Prices and Price Competition Online: Amazon and Barnes and Noble. Working Papers, Yale School of Management’s Accounting Research Network. April 2003: 1-27.
[46]Lee H G. Do Electronic Marketplaces Lower the Price of Goods. Communication of the ACM. 1998, 41(1): 73-80.
[47]Bailey J P. Electronic Commerce: Price and Consumer Issues for Three Products: Books, Compact Discs and Software. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. 1998, 18-32.
[48]Tang F F, Lu D. Pricing Patterns in the Online CD Markets:An Empirical study[J]. Electronic Markets. 2001, 11(3): 171-185.
[49]陈耀刚.互联网商务主体的参与决策和竞争行为研究[博士学位论文].清华大学. 2003.
[50]Qingqiang Meng, Xue Han, Dongmin Yu. An E-commerce Dynamic Pricing Strategy for C2C and B2C Modes[J]. Information Management and Engineering. 2010, 2: 460-470.
[51]Anna Karpowicz, Krzysztof Szajowski. Double Optimal Stopping Times and Dynamic Pricing Problem: Description of the Mathematical Model[J]. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research. 2007, 66(2): 235–253.
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