应用于低温冷害预报的东北玉米区域动力模型的研究
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摘要
针对开展东北玉米低温冷害预报的需求，作为作物模拟模型区域尺度应用的尝试，在前人有关作物模拟模型、春玉米生长发育以及东北低温冷害等方面研究成果的基础上，建立了应用于低温冷害预报的东北玉米区域动力模型。
考虑到东北地区玉米冷害主要是由于生育期内热量不足，发育期延迟，影响生长，最终导致无法正常成熟，造成减产的特点，重点进行了玉米发育期模拟的研究。在有选择地比较了前人几种主要作物发育模型后，改进了“热量单位”法，建立了以日最高气温、日最低气温为因子的修正热量单位发育模型。利用东北地区春玉米91期次的发育期观测资料和部分田间试验资料，确定和调整了作物参数。并依据品种熟性，对模型生长发育的作物参数进行了区域化。玉米发育期利各项生物量模拟检验的结果比较理想。
针对大多数作物模型局限于对单点试验资料的检验或区域平均状况模拟的情况，利用地统计学方法对作物模型所需的逐日气象要素进行空间插值，结合区域化的作物参数和土壤特性参数，进行了作物生长模拟模型区域化解决方案的尝试。利用东北玉米区域动力模型模拟了12站40年东北各地玉米生长发育及产量形成过程。以抽雄期延迟天数为低温冷害指标，逐年模拟了历史低温冷害年及减产情况。模拟了东北地区典型冷害年和40年气候平均的0.25°×0.25°网格点玉米生长发育过程，并应用GIS技术绘制了区域网格点模拟结果分布图。
利用面向对象的VB6.0编程技术和模块化的设计思路编制了东北玉米区域动力模型软件系统。模型分潜在生产和水分胁迫两个水平；由发育、生长、蒸散、土壤水分平衡等几个主要模块组成；以日为时间步长进行模拟。其中作为生长控制的发育过程采用修正的热量单位发育期模型模拟。蒸散模块选择FA01998年推荐的作物参考蒸散最新模型。针对区域模拟和单点模拟的不同需要，系统建有多站点或网格点输入控制模块和由用户干预初始值的单点输入控制模块。
主要结论有：
· 采用抽雄期延迟的天数为冷害指标，评估冷害发生的程度非常符合历史事实。说明玉米发育模型能够较好地模拟玉米发育期和发育期对低温冷害的响应。
· 中熟品种分布区域，模拟的大部分低温冷害年也是减产年，而晚熟品种分布区低温冷害年和减产年的相关不太理想。一方面说明模型已具有一定的模拟玉米生长量对低温冷害响应的能力，另一方面说明，还需要更多的试验数据校正晚熟品种参数，或者需要进一步完善模型。
· 玉米区域动力模型应用于低温冷害预报，比常用的数理统计方法计算量大而复杂，但是更能针对低温对作物影响的详细过程，解释性好，应用性强，是一个正在发展的研究方向。
· 根据气象变量的空间属性特征应用GIS技术空间插值得到格点气象数据，结合区域化的作物参数、土壤参数和管理参数，运行区域作物模型。所得到的区域模拟结果能够更好地分析作物生长发育的空间分布差异。根据所确定的冷害指标可以较好地评估和预测区域低温冷害发生的程度和范围。这种方法是作物模型升尺度应用解决方案的一个尝试。
A scaling-up maize dynamic model applying to low temperature damage prediction in EN, China was established based on studies of predecessors on crop simulation models, spring maize growth and development and low temperature damage in EN. The purpose of this research is to meet to the requirements of maize low temperature damage predictions and to try to crop simulation model scaling-up applications.
The low temperature damage of maize in EN is referred to inadequate thermal condition during growing season, which results in development stage postponed, growth influenced as well as immaturity. Therefore, a focus of this paper is to better simulate the maize development stages. An improved heat unit development model calculated as a function of daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature was established after some selected maize development models were compared with each other. Some crop parameters were derived and readjusted using 91 cases for observed development data and some field experiments data for spring maize in EN, China, and then, the model was validated by these data. The scaling-up regional parameters were mainly determined based on cultivar maturity types. The simulated results of development stages and of dry matter for various oranges were satisfied.
As most of crop models were limited to validate for experiments data on plot or to simulate the mean response in a given regional area, the resolution to crop growth simulation model for scaling-up application was tried, using the spatial interpolation of daily weather data by geo-statistics principles combining scaling-up crop and soil parameters. The development and growth processes were simulated for 12 stations using daily weather data for 40 years (1961~2000). The index for low temperature damage was defined by the days of tasseling postponed. The years with low temperature damage and the related reduction of yield were analyzed using the index. Using scaling-up regional crop parameters and daily weather data in grids the development and growth processes in grids with 0.25' Q.25' were simulated for the year with typical low temperature damage and for mean climate condition in 40 years, respectively, and the spatial distribution on grids for simulated outputs in the study area was drawn by GIS tools.
The model software system was developed by object orientated VB6.0 programming technology and based on module designed thought. There are potential and water-limited production levels in the model. The model with one day step includes development, growth, evapotranspiration, soil water balance et al. modules. The development process controls the growth process. An improved heat unit development module and an update evapotranspiration equation recommended by FAO in 1998 were
applied to the model. A development stage index calculated module, a suitable sowing day calculated module, aimed at different requirements for simulation and application an alternative control module for more stations or for grids and or for single station was added. The main conclusions in this study are as follows:
Using the index for low temperature damage defined by the days of tasseling postponed, the degree of low temperature damage was estimated. The results are very well and are conformed by historical cases. The model of development stage well simulates maize development stages and the response of development stages to low temperature damage.
In most of the years occurring low temperature damage the yield decreased in planting medium-maturity cultivars areas, but the relations between the year with low temperature damage and the year with low yield was not dependent so well in planting late-maturity cultivars areas. One hand, in some degree the model can basically simulate responses of maize biomass to low temperature damage; on the other hand, it means that the parameters of late-maturity cultivar should be calibrated by more experiment measured data, and that the model will be modified further.
Compared with ordinary statistical models, the method for
考虑到东北地区玉米冷害主要是由于生育期内热量不足，发育期延迟，影响生长，最终导致无法正常成熟，造成减产的特点，重点进行了玉米发育期模拟的研究。在有选择地比较了前人几种主要作物发育模型后，改进了“热量单位”法，建立了以日最高气温、日最低气温为因子的修正热量单位发育模型。利用东北地区春玉米91期次的发育期观测资料和部分田间试验资料，确定和调整了作物参数。并依据品种熟性，对模型生长发育的作物参数进行了区域化。玉米发育期利各项生物量模拟检验的结果比较理想。
针对大多数作物模型局限于对单点试验资料的检验或区域平均状况模拟的情况，利用地统计学方法对作物模型所需的逐日气象要素进行空间插值，结合区域化的作物参数和土壤特性参数，进行了作物生长模拟模型区域化解决方案的尝试。利用东北玉米区域动力模型模拟了12站40年东北各地玉米生长发育及产量形成过程。以抽雄期延迟天数为低温冷害指标，逐年模拟了历史低温冷害年及减产情况。模拟了东北地区典型冷害年和40年气候平均的0.25°×0.25°网格点玉米生长发育过程，并应用GIS技术绘制了区域网格点模拟结果分布图。
利用面向对象的VB6.0编程技术和模块化的设计思路编制了东北玉米区域动力模型软件系统。模型分潜在生产和水分胁迫两个水平；由发育、生长、蒸散、土壤水分平衡等几个主要模块组成；以日为时间步长进行模拟。其中作为生长控制的发育过程采用修正的热量单位发育期模型模拟。蒸散模块选择FA01998年推荐的作物参考蒸散最新模型。针对区域模拟和单点模拟的不同需要，系统建有多站点或网格点输入控制模块和由用户干预初始值的单点输入控制模块。
主要结论有：
· 采用抽雄期延迟的天数为冷害指标，评估冷害发生的程度非常符合历史事实。说明玉米发育模型能够较好地模拟玉米发育期和发育期对低温冷害的响应。
· 中熟品种分布区域，模拟的大部分低温冷害年也是减产年，而晚熟品种分布区低温冷害年和减产年的相关不太理想。一方面说明模型已具有一定的模拟玉米生长量对低温冷害响应的能力，另一方面说明，还需要更多的试验数据校正晚熟品种参数，或者需要进一步完善模型。
· 玉米区域动力模型应用于低温冷害预报，比常用的数理统计方法计算量大而复杂，但是更能针对低温对作物影响的详细过程，解释性好，应用性强，是一个正在发展的研究方向。
· 根据气象变量的空间属性特征应用GIS技术空间插值得到格点气象数据，结合区域化的作物参数、土壤参数和管理参数，运行区域作物模型。所得到的区域模拟结果能够更好地分析作物生长发育的空间分布差异。根据所确定的冷害指标可以较好地评估和预测区域低温冷害发生的程度和范围。这种方法是作物模型升尺度应用解决方案的一个尝试。
A scaling-up maize dynamic model applying to low temperature damage prediction in EN, China was established based on studies of predecessors on crop simulation models, spring maize growth and development and low temperature damage in EN. The purpose of this research is to meet to the requirements of maize low temperature damage predictions and to try to crop simulation model scaling-up applications.
The low temperature damage of maize in EN is referred to inadequate thermal condition during growing season, which results in development stage postponed, growth influenced as well as immaturity. Therefore, a focus of this paper is to better simulate the maize development stages. An improved heat unit development model calculated as a function of daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature was established after some selected maize development models were compared with each other. Some crop parameters were derived and readjusted using 91 cases for observed development data and some field experiments data for spring maize in EN, China, and then, the model was validated by these data. The scaling-up regional parameters were mainly determined based on cultivar maturity types. The simulated results of development stages and of dry matter for various oranges were satisfied.
As most of crop models were limited to validate for experiments data on plot or to simulate the mean response in a given regional area, the resolution to crop growth simulation model for scaling-up application was tried, using the spatial interpolation of daily weather data by geo-statistics principles combining scaling-up crop and soil parameters. The development and growth processes were simulated for 12 stations using daily weather data for 40 years (1961~2000). The index for low temperature damage was defined by the days of tasseling postponed. The years with low temperature damage and the related reduction of yield were analyzed using the index. Using scaling-up regional crop parameters and daily weather data in grids the development and growth processes in grids with 0.25' Q.25' were simulated for the year with typical low temperature damage and for mean climate condition in 40 years, respectively, and the spatial distribution on grids for simulated outputs in the study area was drawn by GIS tools.
The model software system was developed by object orientated VB6.0 programming technology and based on module designed thought. There are potential and water-limited production levels in the model. The model with one day step includes development, growth, evapotranspiration, soil water balance et al. modules. The development process controls the growth process. An improved heat unit development module and an update evapotranspiration equation recommended by FAO in 1998 were
applied to the model. A development stage index calculated module, a suitable sowing day calculated module, aimed at different requirements for simulation and application an alternative control module for more stations or for grids and or for single station was added. The main conclusions in this study are as follows:
Using the index for low temperature damage defined by the days of tasseling postponed, the degree of low temperature damage was estimated. The results are very well and are conformed by historical cases. The model of development stage well simulates maize development stages and the response of development stages to low temperature damage.
In most of the years occurring low temperature damage the yield decreased in planting medium-maturity cultivars areas, but the relations between the year with low temperature damage and the year with low yield was not dependent so well in planting late-maturity cultivars areas. One hand, in some degree the model can basically simulate responses of maize biomass to low temperature damage; on the other hand, it means that the parameters of late-maturity cultivar should be calibrated by more experiment measured data, and that the model will be modified further.
Compared with ordinary statistical models, the method for
引文
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