亚洲新兴经济体国际资本流动管理研究
摘要
国际资本流动管理是当前国际经济领域研究的热点问题，但关注点始终局限于某一具体政策，尤其是资本管制。但实际上，国际资本流动管理是一个系统性工作，除资本管制外，还涉及宏观领域和金融领域，即世界上并没有一项政策能够单独成为应对资本流入激增的灵丹妙药。本文选择国际资本流动管理的政策框架作为新视角，结合亚洲各国的具体情况，分别从宏观经济政策调整、金融体系改革以及资本管制等几个方面，考察了1997年金融危机后亚洲各国的国际资本流动管理措施，以期为亚洲以及我国在未来制定国际资本流动管理政策提供借鉴。
首先，国际资本流动管理是有其理论支撑的，那便是对国际资本流动的影响机制以及产生的风险的认识。国际资本流入对东道国经济的影响机制包括汇率机制、资产价格机制、财富效应机制、声誉机制和政策效应机制。国际资本流入在给东道国带来各种经济利益的同时，也会给东道国宏观经济和金融稳定带来诸多风险。如果风险没有得到恰当管理，那么经济体系的风险会不断积聚，一旦外部冲击到来或者仅仅是由于预期的突然改变，积累于经济体系内的风险会集中释放，最终引发系统性的金融危机。
其次，结合亚洲各国的具体情况，分别从宏观经济政策调整、金融体系改革以及资本管制等几个方面，考察了1997年金融危机后亚洲各国的国际资本流动管理措施，并着重探讨了各项治理措施的成效。在国际资本大规模流入时，各国短期内都优先采用冲销干预，长期依靠推行更有弹性的汇率制度、加强宏观经济政策和完善金融体系等。但由于冲销干预的成本会不断攀升，且容易陷入内外均衡的两难选择—选择稳定利率还是选择稳定汇率，而汇率制度、完善金融体系等改革往往需要较长的时期才能收到效果，因此，各国会在中短期内使用资本管制措施弥补以上两种措施的不足。亚洲新兴经济体的经验表明，资本流动管理并没有“放之四海而皆准”的且一成不变的固定模式，而且几乎每一项资本流动管理政策都有其局限性。资本流动管理要想达到预期效果，就必须要根据各国具体情况（包括政策目标、资本流入的原因和持续性、资本流动管理工具使用的政治及其他局限性）进行适当权衡，以决定应对资本流入的合适的政策体系。亚洲新兴经济体的经验还告诉我们，资本流动管理要想达到预期效果不仅仅需要对各种政策工具的开发和利用，更需要政策制定者的智慧与勇气。
最后，本文对全球金融危机后国际资本流动管理的挑战及其未来努力方向做出了分析。全球金融危机对亚洲进出口贸易造成冲击，进而影响其经济增长，再加上外部经济条件的不确定性给亚洲国际资本流动管理提出挑战。亚洲各国除继续强化前期措施外，还应积极利用财政政策和努力推动经济增长，在全球和区域层面推动集体合作。
The management of international capital flows is a key issue of internationaleconomic. But the studies are limited in certain policy, especially in capital controls. Infact, the management of international capital flows is a system. Besides the capitalcontrols, it refers to the macroeconomic and the finance. So it is impossible to find asingle policy to manage the surge of the capital inflows effectively. Based on the policyframework of the management of international capital flows, the thesis, which considersthe specific situation of Asian countries, focuses on the management measures ofinternational capital flows after1997financial crisis among the Asian countries. It refersto the adjustment of macroeconomic policy, the reform of financial system and capitalcontrols. The thesis tries to provide some references on Capital Flow measures to Chinaand the whole Asia.
Firstly, there are theories on the management of international capital flows, whichare the influence mechanism of the international capital flows and the understanding ofits risk. The influence mechanism includes the exchange rate mechanism, the asset pricemechanism, the wealth effect mechanism, the reputation mechanism and the policy effectmechanism. The international capital inflow brings host countries not only the economicbenefits, but also the risks of the macroeconomic and financial stable. If the risks are notmanaged appropriately, the risk of the economy will be accumulated. Once the externalshocks or the sudden change of the expectation, the accumulated risks of the economywill release, which may lead to systemic financial crisis.
Secondly, considering the specific situation of Asian countries, the thesis focuses onthe management measures of international capital flows after1997financial crisis amongthe Asian countries, especially the effect of the measures. When the international capitalinflows are massive, each country may sterilize in short term; and in long-term, they willcarry out flexible exchange rate regime, enhance the macroeconomic policies and perfectfinancial system. But as the cost of sterilization will increase, it is easy to have thedilemma—to keep stable interest rate or stable exchange rate. However, the reform ofexchange rate and perfecting financial system needs a long-term to see the effect, so each country may use capital control measures in short and medium term to make up theshortfall of the two measures. The experience of Asian emerging economies shows thatthere are no such capital flow managements that fit all and fix a certain form, and nearlyall the policies have their limitation. To achieve the desired result, the capital flowmanagements should be adjusted according to the specific situation of the country,including policy objectives, the cause and persistent of the capital inflow, the politicalenvironment of the capital flow management and some other limitations. At the sametime, the experience of Asian emerging economies indicates that it is important todevelop and apply the policy tools, and the intelligence and courage of the policy makersare also vital for achieving the expected results.
Finally, the thesis gives analysis to the challenges and future of the internationalcapital flow management after the global financial crisis. The financial crisis has greatimpact on Asian import and export trade, and it also affects the economic growth. Withthe uncertainty of the external economic conditions, the management of internationalcapital flows in Asia confronts many challenges. In addition doing more of what has beentried before, Asian countries ought to apply fiscal policy more actively and try topromote economic growth. What’s more, they ought to improve the cooperation in theregion and the whole world.
首先，国际资本流动管理是有其理论支撑的，那便是对国际资本流动的影响机制以及产生的风险的认识。国际资本流入对东道国经济的影响机制包括汇率机制、资产价格机制、财富效应机制、声誉机制和政策效应机制。国际资本流入在给东道国带来各种经济利益的同时，也会给东道国宏观经济和金融稳定带来诸多风险。如果风险没有得到恰当管理，那么经济体系的风险会不断积聚，一旦外部冲击到来或者仅仅是由于预期的突然改变，积累于经济体系内的风险会集中释放，最终引发系统性的金融危机。
其次，结合亚洲各国的具体情况，分别从宏观经济政策调整、金融体系改革以及资本管制等几个方面，考察了1997年金融危机后亚洲各国的国际资本流动管理措施，并着重探讨了各项治理措施的成效。在国际资本大规模流入时，各国短期内都优先采用冲销干预，长期依靠推行更有弹性的汇率制度、加强宏观经济政策和完善金融体系等。但由于冲销干预的成本会不断攀升，且容易陷入内外均衡的两难选择—选择稳定利率还是选择稳定汇率，而汇率制度、完善金融体系等改革往往需要较长的时期才能收到效果，因此，各国会在中短期内使用资本管制措施弥补以上两种措施的不足。亚洲新兴经济体的经验表明，资本流动管理并没有“放之四海而皆准”的且一成不变的固定模式，而且几乎每一项资本流动管理政策都有其局限性。资本流动管理要想达到预期效果，就必须要根据各国具体情况（包括政策目标、资本流入的原因和持续性、资本流动管理工具使用的政治及其他局限性）进行适当权衡，以决定应对资本流入的合适的政策体系。亚洲新兴经济体的经验还告诉我们，资本流动管理要想达到预期效果不仅仅需要对各种政策工具的开发和利用，更需要政策制定者的智慧与勇气。
最后，本文对全球金融危机后国际资本流动管理的挑战及其未来努力方向做出了分析。全球金融危机对亚洲进出口贸易造成冲击，进而影响其经济增长，再加上外部经济条件的不确定性给亚洲国际资本流动管理提出挑战。亚洲各国除继续强化前期措施外，还应积极利用财政政策和努力推动经济增长，在全球和区域层面推动集体合作。
The management of international capital flows is a key issue of internationaleconomic. But the studies are limited in certain policy, especially in capital controls. Infact, the management of international capital flows is a system. Besides the capitalcontrols, it refers to the macroeconomic and the finance. So it is impossible to find asingle policy to manage the surge of the capital inflows effectively. Based on the policyframework of the management of international capital flows, the thesis, which considersthe specific situation of Asian countries, focuses on the management measures ofinternational capital flows after1997financial crisis among the Asian countries. It refersto the adjustment of macroeconomic policy, the reform of financial system and capitalcontrols. The thesis tries to provide some references on Capital Flow measures to Chinaand the whole Asia.
Firstly, there are theories on the management of international capital flows, whichare the influence mechanism of the international capital flows and the understanding ofits risk. The influence mechanism includes the exchange rate mechanism, the asset pricemechanism, the wealth effect mechanism, the reputation mechanism and the policy effectmechanism. The international capital inflow brings host countries not only the economicbenefits, but also the risks of the macroeconomic and financial stable. If the risks are notmanaged appropriately, the risk of the economy will be accumulated. Once the externalshocks or the sudden change of the expectation, the accumulated risks of the economywill release, which may lead to systemic financial crisis.
Secondly, considering the specific situation of Asian countries, the thesis focuses onthe management measures of international capital flows after1997financial crisis amongthe Asian countries, especially the effect of the measures. When the international capitalinflows are massive, each country may sterilize in short term; and in long-term, they willcarry out flexible exchange rate regime, enhance the macroeconomic policies and perfectfinancial system. But as the cost of sterilization will increase, it is easy to have thedilemma—to keep stable interest rate or stable exchange rate. However, the reform ofexchange rate and perfecting financial system needs a long-term to see the effect, so each country may use capital control measures in short and medium term to make up theshortfall of the two measures. The experience of Asian emerging economies shows thatthere are no such capital flow managements that fit all and fix a certain form, and nearlyall the policies have their limitation. To achieve the desired result, the capital flowmanagements should be adjusted according to the specific situation of the country,including policy objectives, the cause and persistent of the capital inflow, the politicalenvironment of the capital flow management and some other limitations. At the sametime, the experience of Asian emerging economies indicates that it is important todevelop and apply the policy tools, and the intelligence and courage of the policy makersare also vital for achieving the expected results.
Finally, the thesis gives analysis to the challenges and future of the internationalcapital flow management after the global financial crisis. The financial crisis has greatimpact on Asian import and export trade, and it also affects the economic growth. Withthe uncertainty of the external economic conditions, the management of internationalcapital flows in Asia confronts many challenges. In addition doing more of what has beentried before, Asian countries ought to apply fiscal policy more actively and try topromote economic growth. What’s more, they ought to improve the cooperation in theregion and the whole world.
引文
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