工程项目实施阶段的风险管理
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摘要
本文认为项目风险管理就是一个在信息不断进入的多阶段活动中进行优化决策的过程，其关键在于对风险应对方案的选择。本文采用规范研究的方法，以系统理论为指导，将期权定价理论与项目风险管理理论相结合，分析工程项目实施阶段的管理过程，在与相关文献对比的基础上分析工程项目实施阶段活动。在建立分析框架的基础上重点分析风险条件下的应对方案的选择这一决策问题。
由于应对方案的实施会改变项目结果的分布，简单地采用项目原折现率对期望值折现来对应对方案进行评价已不再适用。通过对应对方案的性质的分析并结合实物期权的理论，本文认为风险应对方案应该看作是一种衍生于项目的实物期权，应该使用期权定价方法对其投入进行衡量。在对实物期权法的计算过程进行分析的基础上，指出由于未考虑活动引起的成本变化而无法实现其所计算的项目价值增加。在分析期权定价原理的基础上，提出以单位风险价格作为应对方案的评价指标，并证明在某些特定的市场条件下，应用实物期权的分析方法确实可以发现一个最优的应对方案。
本文对指导工程项目的投资者／管理者如何在项目实施阶段建立一个风险管理体系并正确作出风险决策有一定的参考价值。
This paper regards project risk management as a procedure of optimism and decision, in which information will come out gradually in the multistage construction. The key to the risk management is how to select the risk response plan. Directed by the system theory and combined the theory of option pricing and project risk management, this paper adopts criterion method to analyze the management and activity in the stage of engineering project implement on the base of comparison to relative documents. This paper emphatically argues the choice of response plans under the condition of risks according to the established analysis frame.
These forecasts are hypotheses abstract from the similar project performed before, whether they are actual or not will hugely affect the success of project The implement stage means project period from the location to product whose target is transform the plan to real and mark the aims. The implement stage occupies the most period of project, has huge work, consume the most resource. What is worth to mind is that the implement stage is a process not only to form the real propriety but also product information, for example, the knowledge of field status and the capability of contractor can only be obtained form implement. So in order to mark the target, the manager must test the hypotheses and use the new information assess the status of influence element, choose the best response plan
according to the condition.
This paper has value in instructing the project investor/manager in how to establish a risk management configuration and making decision under risk condition in the implement stage of construction project.
由于应对方案的实施会改变项目结果的分布，简单地采用项目原折现率对期望值折现来对应对方案进行评价已不再适用。通过对应对方案的性质的分析并结合实物期权的理论，本文认为风险应对方案应该看作是一种衍生于项目的实物期权，应该使用期权定价方法对其投入进行衡量。在对实物期权法的计算过程进行分析的基础上，指出由于未考虑活动引起的成本变化而无法实现其所计算的项目价值增加。在分析期权定价原理的基础上，提出以单位风险价格作为应对方案的评价指标，并证明在某些特定的市场条件下，应用实物期权的分析方法确实可以发现一个最优的应对方案。
本文对指导工程项目的投资者／管理者如何在项目实施阶段建立一个风险管理体系并正确作出风险决策有一定的参考价值。
This paper regards project risk management as a procedure of optimism and decision, in which information will come out gradually in the multistage construction. The key to the risk management is how to select the risk response plan. Directed by the system theory and combined the theory of option pricing and project risk management, this paper adopts criterion method to analyze the management and activity in the stage of engineering project implement on the base of comparison to relative documents. This paper emphatically argues the choice of response plans under the condition of risks according to the established analysis frame.
These forecasts are hypotheses abstract from the similar project performed before, whether they are actual or not will hugely affect the success of project The implement stage means project period from the location to product whose target is transform the plan to real and mark the aims. The implement stage occupies the most period of project, has huge work, consume the most resource. What is worth to mind is that the implement stage is a process not only to form the real propriety but also product information, for example, the knowledge of field status and the capability of contractor can only be obtained form implement. So in order to mark the target, the manager must test the hypotheses and use the new information assess the status of influence element, choose the best response plan
according to the condition.
This paper has value in instructing the project investor/manager in how to establish a risk management configuration and making decision under risk condition in the implement stage of construction project.
引文
[1]C．小阿瑟．威廉斯，风险管理与保险[M]，经济科学出版社[2000]，P5
[2]詹姆斯．德阿克，企业的泛风险管理[M]，吉林人民出版社[2001]，P71
[3]阎长俊，建设项目风险研究综述[J]，沈阳建筑工业学报，vol18，[2002]，P35-P38
[4]R.J.Chapman, The controlling influence on effective risk identification and assessment for construction design management [J], International Journal of Project, vol19, [2001], P147-160
[5]C.M. Tam, Non-structural fuzzy decision support system for evaluation of construction safety management system [J], International Journal of Project, vol20, [2002],P303-313
[6]Prasant. Kumar. Dey, Decision support system for risk management: a case study [J], Management Decision, vol39, No18, [2001],p639-649
[7]John．M．Nicholas，面向商务和技术的项目管理，清华大学出版社[2000]，P307-334
[8]R.J. Chapman, The controlling influence on effective risk identification and assessment for construction design management [J], International Journal of Project, vol19, [2001],P147-160
[9]V.M. Rao. Tummala, Applying a Risk Management Process (RMP) to manage cost risk of EHV transmission line project, vol17, No4, [1999], P223-235.
[10]John．M．Nicholas，面向商务和技术的项目管理，清华大学出版社[2000]，P307-334
[11]钟登华，基于AHP的工程项目风险分析方法[J]，天津大学学报，vol35．NO2，[2002]，P162-165
[12]C.M. Tam, Non-structural fuzzy decision support system for evaluation of construction safety management system [J], International Journal of Project, vol20, [2002],P303-313
[13]Prasant. Kumar. Dey, Decision support system for risk management: a case study [J], Management Decision, vol39, No18, [2001],p639-649
[14]郭宇，应用蒙特卡罗法改进项目成本风险分析[J]，天津大学学报，vol35．NO3，[2002]，P199-203
[15]徐哲，网络计划进度的风险分析[J]，系统工程理论与实践[2000]，No3，p46—49．
[16]Neil. Hardie, The predication and control of project duration: a recursive model
[J], International Journal of Project, vol19, [2001],p401-409.
[17]Dorota. Kuckta, Use of fuzzy members in project risk (criticality) assessment [J], International Journal of Project, vol19, [2001],P305-310.
[18]V.M. Rao. Tummala, Applying a Risk Management Process (RMP) to manage cost risk of EHV transmission line project, vol17, No4, [1999], P223-235.
[19]Sherif.Mohammed, Modeling project investment decision under uncertainty using possibility theory [J], International Journal of Project, vol19, [2001], P231-241.
[20]David. N. Ford, Achieving multiple project object through contingency management, Journal of Construction engineering management [J], Vol28, No1, p30-39.
[21]S.C. Ward, Assessing and managing important risk [J], International Journal of Project, vol17, No6, [1999], P223-235.
[22]张瑞清，不完整信息条件下决策分析的理论与应用[CA]，中国国家图书馆，1998／C939／1
[23]中国项目管理委员会，中国项目管理体系与国际项目管理专业资质认证标准[M]，机械工业出版社[2001]，p71
[24]周直，大型工程项目实施阶段风险分析[CA]，中国国家图书馆，1998／C934／1
[25]赵振宇，一种确定建设项目风险预备费的新方法[J]，基建优化，Vol23，No2，[2002]，p25-27
[26]范龙振，胡畏，金融工程学[M]，上海人民出版社[2002]，p134．
[27]李建伟，土木工程项目管理[M]，同济大学出版社[2002]，p4-24．
[28]Ming-The Wang, Risk allocation and handing of highway projects in Taiwan [J], Journal of Management in engineering, vol19, No2, [2003],P60-68.
[29]Daud. Nasir, Evaluating risk in construction-schedule model (ERIC-S): construction schedule risk model [J], Journal of construction engineering and management, vol129, No5, [2003],P518-527.
[30]Chaochi. charoengam, Contractual risk and liability sharing in hydropower construction [J], International Journal of Project, vol17, [1999],P29-37
[31]王蔚松，工程建设项目战略灵活性的实物期权评价[J]，基建优化，Vol24，No5，[2003]
[32]王蔚松，工程项目风险管理的实物期权方法[J]，基建优化，Vol24，No4，[2003]
[33]冯蔚东，虚拟企业中的风险管理与控制研究，管理科学学报[J]，Vol4，No3，[2001]
[34]John．C．Cox，期权市场[M]，清华大学出版社[2001]，p185-196
[35]郁洪良，金融期权与实物期权[M]，上海财经大学出版社[2003]，p108-141
[36]杨春繁，实物期权及其应用[M]，复旦大学出版社[2003]，p51-57
[37]Amram，M．and N．Kulatilaka著，张维译，实物期权[M]，机械工业出版社[2001]．
[38]Dixit，Pindyck著，朱勇译，不确定条件下的投资[M]，中国人民大学出版社[2002]，
[39]威廉．夏普著，胡坚译，投资组合理论与资本市场[M]，机械工业出版社[2001]．
[40]邱蔻华，现代项目风险管理[M]，科学出版社[2003]。
[41]戚安邦，项目管理十大风险[M]，中国经济出版社[2003]。
[42]贾晓霞，基于资源约束的项目区域风险回应策略选择研究[J]，系统工程，VOL123，NO3，2004，p7-10．
[43]彼得．伯恩斯坦著，毛二万译，与天为敌—风险探索传奇[M]，清华大学出版社，2001，P221
[44]Amram，M．and N．Kulatilaka著，张维译，实物期权[M]，机械工业出版社[2001]．P10—11
[45]刘凤芹，不完全合约与履约障碍[J]，经济研究，2003，NO4，P22—30
[46]吴玲，企业对利益相关者实施分类管理的定量模式研究[J]，中国工业经济，2003，NO6，P70-76。
[47]刘尚希，财政风险：一个分析框架[J]，经济研究，2003，NO5，P23-31。
[48]赵世强，房地产开发风险管理[M]，中国建材出版社，[2003]，P17。
[49]中国项目管理委员会，中国项目管理体系与国际项目管理专业资质认证标准[M]，机械工业出版社[2001]，p198
[50]杨春繁，实物期权及其应用[M]，复旦大学出版社[2003]，p5-10
[51]邓光军，实物期权及其在IT投资中的应用评介[J]，预测，2004，VOL23，NO2，P35-40
[52]左立，房地产投资决策中的实物期权分析方法[J]，重庆建筑大学学报，2004，VOL26，NO1，P115-118。
[53]Steven. P. Peinstein. A better understanding of how NPV undervalues managerial flexibility. [J].The engineering economist, [2002], vol47, NO4, p418-435
[54]王虎林，正确评估风险的指标运用[J]，经济科学，1998，NO2 P76～81
[55]邹辉文，关于风险的若干问题及其在风险投资中的应用[J]，同济大学学报，2002．
[2]詹姆斯．德阿克，企业的泛风险管理[M]，吉林人民出版社[2001]，P71
[3]阎长俊，建设项目风险研究综述[J]，沈阳建筑工业学报，vol18，[2002]，P35-P38
[4]R.J.Chapman, The controlling influence on effective risk identification and assessment for construction design management [J], International Journal of Project, vol19, [2001], P147-160
[5]C.M. Tam, Non-structural fuzzy decision support system for evaluation of construction safety management system [J], International Journal of Project, vol20, [2002],P303-313
[6]Prasant. Kumar. Dey, Decision support system for risk management: a case study [J], Management Decision, vol39, No18, [2001],p639-649
[7]John．M．Nicholas，面向商务和技术的项目管理，清华大学出版社[2000]，P307-334
[8]R.J. Chapman, The controlling influence on effective risk identification and assessment for construction design management [J], International Journal of Project, vol19, [2001],P147-160
[9]V.M. Rao. Tummala, Applying a Risk Management Process (RMP) to manage cost risk of EHV transmission line project, vol17, No4, [1999], P223-235.
[10]John．M．Nicholas，面向商务和技术的项目管理，清华大学出版社[2000]，P307-334
[11]钟登华，基于AHP的工程项目风险分析方法[J]，天津大学学报，vol35．NO2，[2002]，P162-165
[12]C.M. Tam, Non-structural fuzzy decision support system for evaluation of construction safety management system [J], International Journal of Project, vol20, [2002],P303-313
[13]Prasant. Kumar. Dey, Decision support system for risk management: a case study [J], Management Decision, vol39, No18, [2001],p639-649
[14]郭宇，应用蒙特卡罗法改进项目成本风险分析[J]，天津大学学报，vol35．NO3，[2002]，P199-203
[15]徐哲，网络计划进度的风险分析[J]，系统工程理论与实践[2000]，No3，p46—49．
[16]Neil. Hardie, The predication and control of project duration: a recursive model
[J], International Journal of Project, vol19, [2001],p401-409.
[17]Dorota. Kuckta, Use of fuzzy members in project risk (criticality) assessment [J], International Journal of Project, vol19, [2001],P305-310.
[18]V.M. Rao. Tummala, Applying a Risk Management Process (RMP) to manage cost risk of EHV transmission line project, vol17, No4, [1999], P223-235.
[19]Sherif.Mohammed, Modeling project investment decision under uncertainty using possibility theory [J], International Journal of Project, vol19, [2001], P231-241.
[20]David. N. Ford, Achieving multiple project object through contingency management, Journal of Construction engineering management [J], Vol28, No1, p30-39.
[21]S.C. Ward, Assessing and managing important risk [J], International Journal of Project, vol17, No6, [1999], P223-235.
[22]张瑞清，不完整信息条件下决策分析的理论与应用[CA]，中国国家图书馆，1998／C939／1
[23]中国项目管理委员会，中国项目管理体系与国际项目管理专业资质认证标准[M]，机械工业出版社[2001]，p71
[24]周直，大型工程项目实施阶段风险分析[CA]，中国国家图书馆，1998／C934／1
[25]赵振宇，一种确定建设项目风险预备费的新方法[J]，基建优化，Vol23，No2，[2002]，p25-27
[26]范龙振，胡畏，金融工程学[M]，上海人民出版社[2002]，p134．
[27]李建伟，土木工程项目管理[M]，同济大学出版社[2002]，p4-24．
[28]Ming-The Wang, Risk allocation and handing of highway projects in Taiwan [J], Journal of Management in engineering, vol19, No2, [2003],P60-68.
[29]Daud. Nasir, Evaluating risk in construction-schedule model (ERIC-S): construction schedule risk model [J], Journal of construction engineering and management, vol129, No5, [2003],P518-527.
[30]Chaochi. charoengam, Contractual risk and liability sharing in hydropower construction [J], International Journal of Project, vol17, [1999],P29-37
[31]王蔚松，工程建设项目战略灵活性的实物期权评价[J]，基建优化，Vol24，No5，[2003]
[32]王蔚松，工程项目风险管理的实物期权方法[J]，基建优化，Vol24，No4，[2003]
[33]冯蔚东，虚拟企业中的风险管理与控制研究，管理科学学报[J]，Vol4，No3，[2001]
[34]John．C．Cox，期权市场[M]，清华大学出版社[2001]，p185-196
[35]郁洪良，金融期权与实物期权[M]，上海财经大学出版社[2003]，p108-141
[36]杨春繁，实物期权及其应用[M]，复旦大学出版社[2003]，p51-57
[37]Amram，M．and N．Kulatilaka著，张维译，实物期权[M]，机械工业出版社[2001]．
[38]Dixit，Pindyck著，朱勇译，不确定条件下的投资[M]，中国人民大学出版社[2002]，
[39]威廉．夏普著，胡坚译，投资组合理论与资本市场[M]，机械工业出版社[2001]．
[40]邱蔻华，现代项目风险管理[M]，科学出版社[2003]。
[41]戚安邦，项目管理十大风险[M]，中国经济出版社[2003]。
[42]贾晓霞，基于资源约束的项目区域风险回应策略选择研究[J]，系统工程，VOL123，NO3，2004，p7-10．
[43]彼得．伯恩斯坦著，毛二万译，与天为敌—风险探索传奇[M]，清华大学出版社，2001，P221
[44]Amram，M．and N．Kulatilaka著，张维译，实物期权[M]，机械工业出版社[2001]．P10—11
[45]刘凤芹，不完全合约与履约障碍[J]，经济研究，2003，NO4，P22—30
[46]吴玲，企业对利益相关者实施分类管理的定量模式研究[J]，中国工业经济，2003，NO6，P70-76。
[47]刘尚希，财政风险：一个分析框架[J]，经济研究，2003，NO5，P23-31。
[48]赵世强，房地产开发风险管理[M]，中国建材出版社，[2003]，P17。
[49]中国项目管理委员会，中国项目管理体系与国际项目管理专业资质认证标准[M]，机械工业出版社[2001]，p198
[50]杨春繁，实物期权及其应用[M]，复旦大学出版社[2003]，p5-10
[51]邓光军，实物期权及其在IT投资中的应用评介[J]，预测，2004，VOL23，NO2，P35-40
[52]左立，房地产投资决策中的实物期权分析方法[J]，重庆建筑大学学报，2004，VOL26，NO1，P115-118。
[53]Steven. P. Peinstein. A better understanding of how NPV undervalues managerial flexibility. [J].The engineering economist, [2002], vol47, NO4, p418-435
[54]王虎林，正确评估风险的指标运用[J]，经济科学，1998，NO2 P76～81
[55]邹辉文，关于风险的若干问题及其在风险投资中的应用[J]，同济大学学报，2002．