中国外汇储备适度规模研究
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摘要
外汇储备是国际金融领域的重要问题,是一国国际储备的核心。它决定了一国调节国际收支和稳定货币汇率的能力,一直受到国际金融机构和各国政府的普遍关注。在经济持续快速增长,相对稳定的汇率政策和良好的国际收支状况等诸多因素的共同作用下,近年来我国的外汇储备量高速增加。特别是加入WTO后的几年,我国外汇储备的增长速度令人惊叹,今年上半年已超过2万亿美元,达到21316.06万亿美元的巨额数量。面对如此巨额外汇储备,也引发了学术界对其规模适度性以及相关管理等方面的讨论。外汇储备不可否认会对国家经济运行以及国际经济贸易等方面起到积极作用,但不合理的外汇储备规模也有其消极的一面。
本文从外汇储备规模的基本理论入手,致力于当前我国适度外汇储备规模的确定。论文首先对一些相关概念进行解释,并对国内外各相关理论进行文献综述：然后分析了我国外汇储备的基本情况和近期外汇储备持续激增的原因,并从绝对量和相对量上对我国外汇储备规模和他国储备规模进行比较,得出了我国外汇储备从绝对量上和相对量上都高于绝大多数国家的结论；之后采用了比率分析法、因素分析法、成本收益分析法以及回归分析法分别测算出我国2008年底的适度储备水平,得出了我国实际外汇储备规模过量的结论；最后针对我国外汇储备的管理问题提出了政策性建议。
全文分为以下四个部分：
第一部分,主要说明本文的理论和现实意义所在,同时就文章所用的主要经济概念做出说明。
第二部分,首先简要介绍了我国外汇储备管理的发展历程和近期储备量持续激增的成因。然后就中国与其他国家的若干外汇储备比例指标进行比较,得出中国各项比例指标普遍偏高的结论,为引出我国外汇储备是否过量及测算适度规模做好铺垫。
第三部分,采用回归分析法等测算方法对我国外汇储备规模进行实证分析,测算出我国2008年底的外汇储备适度规模范围区间,并得出我国外汇储备过量的结论。
第四部分,针对于我国外汇储备现状以及存在的些许问题在管理方面提出相关政策建议。
本文的创新之处主要表现在：
1、在考察适度储备规模理论模型时,注重区分发达国家与发展中国家的外汇储备需求。并在此基础上,根据我国的具体国情重新评价西方相关理论。
2、在分析我国外汇储备相关指标时,以前的学者仅仅将我国当期的指标值与外国当期的指标值进行横向比较,没有给出我国各期的储备比例指标。本文不仅进行了我国与外国各期储备比例指标的横向比较,还对我国历年的储备指标进行了纵向分析,对我国各期的外汇储备额的理解更加深刻,也使我国外汇储备演变过程的脉络更加清晰。
3、以前学者在用回归法测算我国的适度储备规模时,用的都是时间序列数据,但是没有进行必要的协整检验,使得结论存在虚假回归的可能性。本文通过对时间序列数据进行单位根检验和协整检验避免了虚假回归,使结论更加有说服性。
4、国内学者在用因素法对适度储备规模进行测算时,考虑的因素较少,而且都没有将持汇成本和特殊需要的外汇储备考虑在内,从而使得出的模型不够完善。而本文不仅将持汇回成本考虑在内,更重要的是加入了满足我国特殊需要的外汇储备这一因素,使得出的储备模型更加切合我国的实际情况。
Foreign exchange reserve is important to the international finance and is the core of the international reserve of a country. It decides the capacity of a country to control the international payments and stabilize the exchange rate and the international financial organizations and governments are paying continued attention to it. China's foreign exchange reserve is keeping growing with high speed for the relatively stable exchange rate and the good international payments and many other factors. The speed of growth is unbelievable especially after we took part in WTO. In the first half of this year, the volume of our foreign exchange reserve has exceed 2 trillion. The adequate reserve can play an active role in the international trade, but we should recoganize that the foreign international exchange isn't the more the better.Too much reserve will make a loss of the resources and the economic well-being. At the same time, there will be some negative impact in the progress of one country go after the high-level reserve unbalanced. So it is necessary to get a clear understanding of China's foreign exchange reserve and determine and keep a proper scale of it.
This paper follows a line of considering China's foreign exchange reserve in macro-economy and tries to study the relations between exchange reserve and the individual variables affecting its supply and demand. This paper mainly deals with the question of whether China's foreign exchange reserve can meet the requirement for the Chinese economic development., or in other terms, what is the appropriate level of Chinese foreign exchange reserve. Apart from the introduction and conclusion part, this paper falls mainly into four parts:
In the first part, explaining the theoretical and practical significance, and making explanations of the main economic concepts.
In the second part, a contrast of foreign international reserve between China and some other countries is made, and finding that China's indicators is higher than normal and paving the way for the measurement of reserve.
In the third part, a empirical analysis and some other model analysis of the scale of foreign exchange reserve is made. Based on the foregoing analysis, the conclusion that China's reserve is exceed can be reached.
In the last part, some policy recommendations are proposed.
本文从外汇储备规模的基本理论入手,致力于当前我国适度外汇储备规模的确定。论文首先对一些相关概念进行解释,并对国内外各相关理论进行文献综述：然后分析了我国外汇储备的基本情况和近期外汇储备持续激增的原因,并从绝对量和相对量上对我国外汇储备规模和他国储备规模进行比较,得出了我国外汇储备从绝对量上和相对量上都高于绝大多数国家的结论；之后采用了比率分析法、因素分析法、成本收益分析法以及回归分析法分别测算出我国2008年底的适度储备水平,得出了我国实际外汇储备规模过量的结论；最后针对我国外汇储备的管理问题提出了政策性建议。
全文分为以下四个部分：
第一部分,主要说明本文的理论和现实意义所在,同时就文章所用的主要经济概念做出说明。
第二部分,首先简要介绍了我国外汇储备管理的发展历程和近期储备量持续激增的成因。然后就中国与其他国家的若干外汇储备比例指标进行比较,得出中国各项比例指标普遍偏高的结论,为引出我国外汇储备是否过量及测算适度规模做好铺垫。
第三部分,采用回归分析法等测算方法对我国外汇储备规模进行实证分析,测算出我国2008年底的外汇储备适度规模范围区间,并得出我国外汇储备过量的结论。
第四部分,针对于我国外汇储备现状以及存在的些许问题在管理方面提出相关政策建议。
本文的创新之处主要表现在：
1、在考察适度储备规模理论模型时,注重区分发达国家与发展中国家的外汇储备需求。并在此基础上,根据我国的具体国情重新评价西方相关理论。
2、在分析我国外汇储备相关指标时,以前的学者仅仅将我国当期的指标值与外国当期的指标值进行横向比较,没有给出我国各期的储备比例指标。本文不仅进行了我国与外国各期储备比例指标的横向比较,还对我国历年的储备指标进行了纵向分析,对我国各期的外汇储备额的理解更加深刻,也使我国外汇储备演变过程的脉络更加清晰。
3、以前学者在用回归法测算我国的适度储备规模时,用的都是时间序列数据,但是没有进行必要的协整检验,使得结论存在虚假回归的可能性。本文通过对时间序列数据进行单位根检验和协整检验避免了虚假回归,使结论更加有说服性。
4、国内学者在用因素法对适度储备规模进行测算时,考虑的因素较少,而且都没有将持汇成本和特殊需要的外汇储备考虑在内,从而使得出的模型不够完善。而本文不仅将持汇回成本考虑在内,更重要的是加入了满足我国特殊需要的外汇储备这一因素,使得出的储备模型更加切合我国的实际情况。
Foreign exchange reserve is important to the international finance and is the core of the international reserve of a country. It decides the capacity of a country to control the international payments and stabilize the exchange rate and the international financial organizations and governments are paying continued attention to it. China's foreign exchange reserve is keeping growing with high speed for the relatively stable exchange rate and the good international payments and many other factors. The speed of growth is unbelievable especially after we took part in WTO. In the first half of this year, the volume of our foreign exchange reserve has exceed 2 trillion. The adequate reserve can play an active role in the international trade, but we should recoganize that the foreign international exchange isn't the more the better.Too much reserve will make a loss of the resources and the economic well-being. At the same time, there will be some negative impact in the progress of one country go after the high-level reserve unbalanced. So it is necessary to get a clear understanding of China's foreign exchange reserve and determine and keep a proper scale of it.
This paper follows a line of considering China's foreign exchange reserve in macro-economy and tries to study the relations between exchange reserve and the individual variables affecting its supply and demand. This paper mainly deals with the question of whether China's foreign exchange reserve can meet the requirement for the Chinese economic development., or in other terms, what is the appropriate level of Chinese foreign exchange reserve. Apart from the introduction and conclusion part, this paper falls mainly into four parts:
In the first part, explaining the theoretical and practical significance, and making explanations of the main economic concepts.
In the second part, a contrast of foreign international reserve between China and some other countries is made, and finding that China's indicators is higher than normal and paving the way for the measurement of reserve.
In the third part, a empirical analysis and some other model analysis of the scale of foreign exchange reserve is made. Based on the foregoing analysis, the conclusion that China's reserve is exceed can be reached.
In the last part, some policy recommendations are proposed.
引文
1.阎冶,外汇储备适度规模理论及评述,金融经济,2009(8)
2.武剑,我国外汇储备规模的分析和界定,经济研究,1998(6)
3.刘斌,人民币自由兑换的外汇储备要求,财经研究,2000(11)
4.吴志明,我国外汇储备规模问题国内研究国内研究状况介评,求索,2006(8)
5.王国林,我国外汇储备适度状况分析,中国外汇管理,2001(7)
6.孙迎芬,我国外汇储备的适度规模分析,江苏经贸职业技术学院学报,2007(3)
7.刘凌云,中国外汇储备适度规模区间和货币结构研究,中国博士学位论文全文数据库
8.卢晓丽,我国外汇储备的适度规模—基于Agarwal模型的实证,世界经济情况,2008(12)
9.王国里,外汇储备的国际比较分析,国际金融研究,2003(7)
10.段志多,对我国外债管理的分析及对策建议,国际商务—对外经济贸易大学学报,2007(3)
11.黄长安,邱敏欣,外汇储备适度规模研究的国内外文献综述,2007(12)
12.张博,浅析我国外汇储备的适度性规模,时代金融,2008(9)
13.邹文理,我国外汇储备适度规模研究,现代商贸工业,2008(1)
14.孔立平,我国外汇储备适度规模研究—基于因素分析法的测算,河南金融管理干部学院学报,2008(6)
15.洪加兴,中国外汇储备适度规模的实证分析,南方经济,2008(8)
16.李斌、李岸潮,中国外汇储备适度规模问题的实证研究,统计与决策,2009(5)
17、吴丽华,我国外汇储备适度规模的分析和测算,厦门大学学报,2009(2)
18.王国林、牛晓健,外汇储备币种结构分析,上海金融,2006(9)
19.许承明,对我国外汇储备的比例分析及其国际比较,数量经济技术经济研究,2002(12)
20.马之騆,再论我国外汇储备的适度规模,国际金融研究,1996(3)
21.管豪,我国外汇储备规模问题研究文献综述,惠州学院学报,2009(1)
22.魏晓琴、尤元宝,对阿格沃尔模型的改进及运用,世界经济研究,2004(8)
23.王群林,基于修正的阿格沃尔模型的适度外汇储备规模估算,统计与决策,2008(18)
24.刘莉亚、任若恩,我国外汇储备适度规模的测算与分析,财贸经2004(5)
25.王圣达,我国外汇储备币种结构的优化分析,经济论坛,2009(5)
26.杨柳沁,金融危机背景下的中国外汇储备：结构失衡与主动管理,西南金融,2009(5)
27.王云霞,完善我国外汇储备管理体制的构想,宏观经济研究,2009(3)
28.许承明,世界外汇储备结构变化的原因分析,世界经济文汇,2001(4)
29.郑红,外汇储备管理体制改革的国际趋势,中国金融,2008(14)
30.崔丽丽,对加强政府外债管理的几点建议,现代审计与经济,2007(4)
31. Bahmani-Oskooee, M.& Brown, F. (2002). Demand for international reserves:Review Article. [J],2002(34),1209-1226.
32. Ford, J. L.& Huang, G. (1994). The demand for international reserves in China:an ECM model with domestic monetary disequilibrium. [J],1994(61), 379-97.
33. Harald Badinger. (2004). Austria's Demand for International Reserves and Monetary Disequilibrium:The Case of a small open Economy with a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime. [J],2004(71),39-55.
34. Elbadawi,I.A.(1990). The Sudan demand for international reserves:A case of a labor exporting country. [J],1990(57),73-89.
35. Frenkel, J. A.& Jovanovic, B. (1981). Optimal international reserves:A stochastic Framework. [J],1981(91),507-14.
36. Huang, T.-H.& Shen, C.-H. (1999). Applying the seasonal error correction model to the demand for international reserves in Taiwan. [J],1999 (18), 107-31.
38. Olivier Jeanne & Romain Ranciere. (2006).The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries:Formulas and Applications. IMF Working Paper, (06),229.
39. Joshua Aizenman and Jaewoo Lee. (2006). International Reserves:Precautionary versus Mercantilist View,Theory and Evidence. [J], Forthcoming, Open Economies Review, (10).
40. Flanders,M.J. (1971). The demand for international reserves[J]. Princeton Studies in International Finance, (27).
41. Frenkel.J.A. (1973). The Demand for International Reserves by Developed and Less Developed Countries[J]. Economic, (41),14-24.
42. Heiier,Robert. (1996). Optimal International Reserve. [J], Economic Journal,(76).
2.武剑,我国外汇储备规模的分析和界定,经济研究,1998(6)
3.刘斌,人民币自由兑换的外汇储备要求,财经研究,2000(11)
4.吴志明,我国外汇储备规模问题国内研究国内研究状况介评,求索,2006(8)
5.王国林,我国外汇储备适度状况分析,中国外汇管理,2001(7)
6.孙迎芬,我国外汇储备的适度规模分析,江苏经贸职业技术学院学报,2007(3)
7.刘凌云,中国外汇储备适度规模区间和货币结构研究,中国博士学位论文全文数据库
8.卢晓丽,我国外汇储备的适度规模—基于Agarwal模型的实证,世界经济情况,2008(12)
9.王国里,外汇储备的国际比较分析,国际金融研究,2003(7)
10.段志多,对我国外债管理的分析及对策建议,国际商务—对外经济贸易大学学报,2007(3)
11.黄长安,邱敏欣,外汇储备适度规模研究的国内外文献综述,2007(12)
12.张博,浅析我国外汇储备的适度性规模,时代金融,2008(9)
13.邹文理,我国外汇储备适度规模研究,现代商贸工业,2008(1)
14.孔立平,我国外汇储备适度规模研究—基于因素分析法的测算,河南金融管理干部学院学报,2008(6)
15.洪加兴,中国外汇储备适度规模的实证分析,南方经济,2008(8)
16.李斌、李岸潮,中国外汇储备适度规模问题的实证研究,统计与决策,2009(5)
17、吴丽华,我国外汇储备适度规模的分析和测算,厦门大学学报,2009(2)
18.王国林、牛晓健,外汇储备币种结构分析,上海金融,2006(9)
19.许承明,对我国外汇储备的比例分析及其国际比较,数量经济技术经济研究,2002(12)
20.马之騆,再论我国外汇储备的适度规模,国际金融研究,1996(3)
21.管豪,我国外汇储备规模问题研究文献综述,惠州学院学报,2009(1)
22.魏晓琴、尤元宝,对阿格沃尔模型的改进及运用,世界经济研究,2004(8)
23.王群林,基于修正的阿格沃尔模型的适度外汇储备规模估算,统计与决策,2008(18)
24.刘莉亚、任若恩,我国外汇储备适度规模的测算与分析,财贸经2004(5)
25.王圣达,我国外汇储备币种结构的优化分析,经济论坛,2009(5)
26.杨柳沁,金融危机背景下的中国外汇储备：结构失衡与主动管理,西南金融,2009(5)
27.王云霞,完善我国外汇储备管理体制的构想,宏观经济研究,2009(3)
28.许承明,世界外汇储备结构变化的原因分析,世界经济文汇,2001(4)
29.郑红,外汇储备管理体制改革的国际趋势,中国金融,2008(14)
30.崔丽丽,对加强政府外债管理的几点建议,现代审计与经济,2007(4)
31. Bahmani-Oskooee, M.& Brown, F. (2002). Demand for international reserves:Review Article. [J],2002(34),1209-1226.
32. Ford, J. L.& Huang, G. (1994). The demand for international reserves in China:an ECM model with domestic monetary disequilibrium. [J],1994(61), 379-97.
33. Harald Badinger. (2004). Austria's Demand for International Reserves and Monetary Disequilibrium:The Case of a small open Economy with a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime. [J],2004(71),39-55.
34. Elbadawi,I.A.(1990). The Sudan demand for international reserves:A case of a labor exporting country. [J],1990(57),73-89.
35. Frenkel, J. A.& Jovanovic, B. (1981). Optimal international reserves:A stochastic Framework. [J],1981(91),507-14.
36. Huang, T.-H.& Shen, C.-H. (1999). Applying the seasonal error correction model to the demand for international reserves in Taiwan. [J],1999 (18), 107-31.
38. Olivier Jeanne & Romain Ranciere. (2006).The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries:Formulas and Applications. IMF Working Paper, (06),229.
39. Joshua Aizenman and Jaewoo Lee. (2006). International Reserves:Precautionary versus Mercantilist View,Theory and Evidence. [J], Forthcoming, Open Economies Review, (10).
40. Flanders,M.J. (1971). The demand for international reserves[J]. Princeton Studies in International Finance, (27).
41. Frenkel.J.A. (1973). The Demand for International Reserves by Developed and Less Developed Countries[J]. Economic, (41),14-24.
42. Heiier,Robert. (1996). Optimal International Reserve. [J], Economic Journal,(76).