后危机时代中国有效金融监管问题研究
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摘要
始于2007年的美国次级贷款风暴引发全球金融危机，导致世界政治经济格局急剧动荡，金融危机的阴霾至今尚未完全散去。危机之后的研究表明，金融危机与金融监管具有内在联系，金融监管的缺位与失职是此次危机的重要原因。痛定思痛，世界各国在危机后更加重视金融监管问题，相约相继推出一系列监管改革措施，中国也就金融监管改革做了一系列制度安排，将全面实施巴塞尔协议Ⅲ。不过从实施效果与现实情况来看，国际金融监管改革仍有待进一步深化，最终实现有效金融监管还任重而道远。
本文主要通过历史考察、横向对比与实证研究，着重对中国金融监管尤其是银行有效监管问题进行探讨。通过对中国金融业发展现状的考察发现，尽管中国金融监管近些年里取得了长足的进步，但是相比国际标准和行业发展要求仍然存在较大差距。首先，监管的微观基础仍然比较薄弱，金融机构在公司治理、风险管理能力、服务与创新能力等方面离监管的要求还有不小的差距；其次，监管者系统性风险监管能力不足，诸多有效的系统性风险防控机制尚未建立起来；第三，宏观经济失衡、法制环境不健全、会计制度执行不到位、市场约束软弱等金融生态问题突出，有的甚至在恶化。针对这些突出问题，本文依照有效银行监管核心原则及评估办法，进行了全面的剖析。如果这些问题不能得到有效解决，中国金融监管的有效性就不能从根本上得到提升。因此，鉴于中国金融正处于增长转段、发展转型和体制转轨过程的国情，本文提出有效监管建设必须与深化银行改革和改善外部环境相结合。根据危机后全球对系统重要性金融机构监管空前关注这一现实，立足于中国银行业近十年具体市场微观主体的改革情况，本文提出加强对系统重要性性银行的监管是实现有效金融监管的关键，并对其进行了实证研究。同时，在对我国金融监管能力建设历程全面回顾的基础上，全面分析了影响我国银行业监管有效性的因素，并进行了实证检验。不仅如此，针对如何实现有效金融监管，本文还从建立可持续平衡的经济金融发展机制、强化金融机构自我约束、改进金融监管治理体系、改善金融监管的外部环境等方面提出了相应的政策建议。
本文的特色主要在于：首先，从监管视角分析了国际金融危机原因，检讨当前金融监管体制的机制性问题，提出需要从更新监管理念、突出监管重点和改进监管方式等方面来增进监管的有效性。其次，在宏观审慎监管的框架下，从有效监管出发界定监管者的责任，将应对市场的非正常波动、给投资者正确的信号和引导、监控市场主要参与者的交易行为、加强对金融机构公司治理与内部控制的监管、建立宏观审慎监管框架及进一步丰富监管工具箱等内容纳入到有效监管的范畴，着眼于整个金融体系，以防范系统性风险为目标，提出完善金融监管的政策建议；第三，强调系统重要性银行的监管。系统重要性银行监管是后危机时代金融监管改革关注的焦点问题，本文利用CoVaR方法，结合分位数回归技术，量化了我国上市银行之间的风险溢出效应及单个银行对整个银行系统的风险贡献率，在对系统重要性金融机构进行识别基础上，有针对性的提出了相应的监管建议；第四，从宏观经济效应、行业效果以及监管效率三个方面给出了关于有效监管的具体的标准，构造了衡量监管有效性的综合指标体系，使用门限回归方法对我国金融监管的有效性进行实证分析，从时间维度对我国银行业的监管的有效性做出了客观评价。
本文一共分为七章，每章具体内容如下：
第一章，绪论。提出研究的背景、思路和方法，界定相关概念并对现有的研究进行了相关梳理、总结与评价。
第二章，金融监管理论的流派与最新发展进行综述。对学术界有关金融监管理论演进进行了陈述，同时梳理了危机后金融监管理论的新发展，并就金融危机与金融监管的反思进行了简要总结。
第三章，美国金融危机的反思与金融监管改革。这一章回顾了美国金融危机的形成和演进过程及其反思。在反思的基础上，本章得出了后危机时代加强和改进有效监管的诸多启示。
第四章，后危机时代中国金融监管面临的突出问题。对照巴塞尔协议有效银行监管核心原则及其评估办法，分析了中国银行业有效监管存在的问题与差距，以此作为深化我国有效银行监管体系建设的现实出发点。
第五章，中国金融市场微观主体改革与系统重要性银行监管。本章对中国金融机构改革与重组的实践进行了梳理，提出系统重要性银行的监管是实现有效金融监管，防范和化解金融系统性风险的关键。基于实证研究，这一章对我国的系统重要性银行进行了识别，并提出了相应的监管建议。
第六章，中国金融监管能力建设与监管有效性的实证分析。本章首先对中国银行业改革发展与监管成效这一问题做了全面分析。在定性分析的基础上，本章提出了我国银行业有效监管的评价标准，并做了实证检验。
第七章，从更广泛的视角考虑中国有效银行监管新框架的建设问题，提出了一系列加强和改进金融有效监管的政策建议。
The global financial crisis which is aroused by U.S. subprime mortgage turmoilfrom2007has made the pattern of world political and economic turbulence. Therefore,till now, the shadow of the financial crisis is not fully dispersed. The post-crisisinvestigation shows, there is inner connection between financial crisis and financialregulation, and the absence and negligence of financial supervision is one major causeof this crisis. Learn from this crisis, all countries paid more attention on financialsupervision, and a series of supervision reformation has been brought out. But,according to the analysis of these measures and the evaluation of the implementationeffect, the reformation of financial regulation remains to be further deepened. Aftercrisis, China has made a series institutional arrangement on financial supervision, andour country would fully implement Basel III. However, practically there still a longway to the ultimate realization of effective financial supervision.
This paper emphatically discusses the effective regulation on China’s banking,mainly through historical review, horizontal compare, and empirical study. Byinvestigating the present situation of China’s financial development, although Chinahas made great progress on financial effective supervision, compared to internationalstandards there are still some significant gaps. First of all, the micro foundation ofregulation is still weak, and commercial banks still have great gaps from regulatoryrequirements in corporate governance, risk management capabilities, service andinnovation ability; besides, regulators’ capability of systemic risk regulation isinsufficient, and some effective systemic risk prevention mechanism has not beenestablished; what’s more, there are some highlight financial ecological problems asmacroeconomic imbalance, unsound legal environment, the lacking of implementationof the accounting system, as well as weak market constraints. Specific to theseproblems, this paper makes a full analysis in accordance with core principles andassessment methods of effective banking supervision. The effectiveness of China’sfinancial supervision cannot be fundamentally improved if these problems cannot besolved effectively. Meanwhile, thinking that China’s financial system is in the processof transition, this paper proposes that effective supervision must be combined withdeepening bank reformation and promoting external environment. Based on the factorthat supervision of systemically important financial institutions has been of unprecedented global attention after crisis as well as the circumstances of the reformof specific market microstructure in China's banking sector in a decade, this paperproposes that the effective supervision of the systemic important bank is the key toeffective financial supervision along with its empirical study. Meanwhile, based onthe comprehensive review of financial supervision capability construction process,this paper makes a full analysis of the impact element on banking regulationeffectiveness in our country as well its empirical study. Otherwise, aim on how torealize effective financial supervision, this paper proposes several political advices onhow to set up financial system which is sustainable balanced, how to reinforce theself-discipline of financial institutions, how to improve financial supervision systemand the external circumstance of it.
The character of this paper lies on: firstly, it analyzes the cause of theinternational financial crisis from the view of regulation, reviews the currentmechanism problem of the financial regulatory system, and proposes that theimprovement of effective regulation should start from changing the idea, focus andmethod of regulation. Secondly, under the framework of macro-prudential supervision,it defines the responsibility of regulators from the point of effective regulation.Dealing with non-normal fluctuations of the market, giving investors the right signalsand guidance, monitoring trading behavior of the major players in the market,strengthening the supervision of financial institutions and the internal control ofcorporate governance, and establishing the framework and tools of macro-prudentialregulation should be incorporated into the scope of effective regulation. And, in orderto prevent against systemic risk in the financial system as a whole, it proposes policyrecommendations to improve the financial regulatory. Thirdly, it stresses theregulation of systemically important banks. Supervision of systemically importantbank is the focus of financial regulatory reform of the post-crisis era, therefore thispaper uses CoVaR methods combined quantile regression to quantify the effect of riskspillover between China's listed banks and the risk contribution rate of individualbank contribute to the whole banking system, and makes the targeted regulatoryproposals on the basis of identification of systemically important financial institutions.Fourthly, it gives the specific criteria about effective supervision frommacroeconomic effects, industry effects as well as supervision efficiency, constructs acomprehensive measurement of regulatory effectiveness index system, and makes anempirical analysis of the effectiveness of China's financial regulation by usingthreshold regression method, while makes an objective evaluation on the effectiveness of China's banking regulation from time dimension.
本文主要通过历史考察、横向对比与实证研究，着重对中国金融监管尤其是银行有效监管问题进行探讨。通过对中国金融业发展现状的考察发现，尽管中国金融监管近些年里取得了长足的进步，但是相比国际标准和行业发展要求仍然存在较大差距。首先，监管的微观基础仍然比较薄弱，金融机构在公司治理、风险管理能力、服务与创新能力等方面离监管的要求还有不小的差距；其次，监管者系统性风险监管能力不足，诸多有效的系统性风险防控机制尚未建立起来；第三，宏观经济失衡、法制环境不健全、会计制度执行不到位、市场约束软弱等金融生态问题突出，有的甚至在恶化。针对这些突出问题，本文依照有效银行监管核心原则及评估办法，进行了全面的剖析。如果这些问题不能得到有效解决，中国金融监管的有效性就不能从根本上得到提升。因此，鉴于中国金融正处于增长转段、发展转型和体制转轨过程的国情，本文提出有效监管建设必须与深化银行改革和改善外部环境相结合。根据危机后全球对系统重要性金融机构监管空前关注这一现实，立足于中国银行业近十年具体市场微观主体的改革情况，本文提出加强对系统重要性性银行的监管是实现有效金融监管的关键，并对其进行了实证研究。同时，在对我国金融监管能力建设历程全面回顾的基础上，全面分析了影响我国银行业监管有效性的因素，并进行了实证检验。不仅如此，针对如何实现有效金融监管，本文还从建立可持续平衡的经济金融发展机制、强化金融机构自我约束、改进金融监管治理体系、改善金融监管的外部环境等方面提出了相应的政策建议。
本文的特色主要在于：首先，从监管视角分析了国际金融危机原因，检讨当前金融监管体制的机制性问题，提出需要从更新监管理念、突出监管重点和改进监管方式等方面来增进监管的有效性。其次，在宏观审慎监管的框架下，从有效监管出发界定监管者的责任，将应对市场的非正常波动、给投资者正确的信号和引导、监控市场主要参与者的交易行为、加强对金融机构公司治理与内部控制的监管、建立宏观审慎监管框架及进一步丰富监管工具箱等内容纳入到有效监管的范畴，着眼于整个金融体系，以防范系统性风险为目标，提出完善金融监管的政策建议；第三，强调系统重要性银行的监管。系统重要性银行监管是后危机时代金融监管改革关注的焦点问题，本文利用CoVaR方法，结合分位数回归技术，量化了我国上市银行之间的风险溢出效应及单个银行对整个银行系统的风险贡献率，在对系统重要性金融机构进行识别基础上，有针对性的提出了相应的监管建议；第四，从宏观经济效应、行业效果以及监管效率三个方面给出了关于有效监管的具体的标准，构造了衡量监管有效性的综合指标体系，使用门限回归方法对我国金融监管的有效性进行实证分析，从时间维度对我国银行业的监管的有效性做出了客观评价。
本文一共分为七章，每章具体内容如下：
第一章，绪论。提出研究的背景、思路和方法，界定相关概念并对现有的研究进行了相关梳理、总结与评价。
第二章，金融监管理论的流派与最新发展进行综述。对学术界有关金融监管理论演进进行了陈述，同时梳理了危机后金融监管理论的新发展，并就金融危机与金融监管的反思进行了简要总结。
第三章，美国金融危机的反思与金融监管改革。这一章回顾了美国金融危机的形成和演进过程及其反思。在反思的基础上，本章得出了后危机时代加强和改进有效监管的诸多启示。
第四章，后危机时代中国金融监管面临的突出问题。对照巴塞尔协议有效银行监管核心原则及其评估办法，分析了中国银行业有效监管存在的问题与差距，以此作为深化我国有效银行监管体系建设的现实出发点。
第五章，中国金融市场微观主体改革与系统重要性银行监管。本章对中国金融机构改革与重组的实践进行了梳理，提出系统重要性银行的监管是实现有效金融监管，防范和化解金融系统性风险的关键。基于实证研究，这一章对我国的系统重要性银行进行了识别，并提出了相应的监管建议。
第六章，中国金融监管能力建设与监管有效性的实证分析。本章首先对中国银行业改革发展与监管成效这一问题做了全面分析。在定性分析的基础上，本章提出了我国银行业有效监管的评价标准，并做了实证检验。
第七章，从更广泛的视角考虑中国有效银行监管新框架的建设问题，提出了一系列加强和改进金融有效监管的政策建议。
The global financial crisis which is aroused by U.S. subprime mortgage turmoilfrom2007has made the pattern of world political and economic turbulence. Therefore,till now, the shadow of the financial crisis is not fully dispersed. The post-crisisinvestigation shows, there is inner connection between financial crisis and financialregulation, and the absence and negligence of financial supervision is one major causeof this crisis. Learn from this crisis, all countries paid more attention on financialsupervision, and a series of supervision reformation has been brought out. But,according to the analysis of these measures and the evaluation of the implementationeffect, the reformation of financial regulation remains to be further deepened. Aftercrisis, China has made a series institutional arrangement on financial supervision, andour country would fully implement Basel III. However, practically there still a longway to the ultimate realization of effective financial supervision.
This paper emphatically discusses the effective regulation on China’s banking,mainly through historical review, horizontal compare, and empirical study. Byinvestigating the present situation of China’s financial development, although Chinahas made great progress on financial effective supervision, compared to internationalstandards there are still some significant gaps. First of all, the micro foundation ofregulation is still weak, and commercial banks still have great gaps from regulatoryrequirements in corporate governance, risk management capabilities, service andinnovation ability; besides, regulators’ capability of systemic risk regulation isinsufficient, and some effective systemic risk prevention mechanism has not beenestablished; what’s more, there are some highlight financial ecological problems asmacroeconomic imbalance, unsound legal environment, the lacking of implementationof the accounting system, as well as weak market constraints. Specific to theseproblems, this paper makes a full analysis in accordance with core principles andassessment methods of effective banking supervision. The effectiveness of China’sfinancial supervision cannot be fundamentally improved if these problems cannot besolved effectively. Meanwhile, thinking that China’s financial system is in the processof transition, this paper proposes that effective supervision must be combined withdeepening bank reformation and promoting external environment. Based on the factorthat supervision of systemically important financial institutions has been of unprecedented global attention after crisis as well as the circumstances of the reformof specific market microstructure in China's banking sector in a decade, this paperproposes that the effective supervision of the systemic important bank is the key toeffective financial supervision along with its empirical study. Meanwhile, based onthe comprehensive review of financial supervision capability construction process,this paper makes a full analysis of the impact element on banking regulationeffectiveness in our country as well its empirical study. Otherwise, aim on how torealize effective financial supervision, this paper proposes several political advices onhow to set up financial system which is sustainable balanced, how to reinforce theself-discipline of financial institutions, how to improve financial supervision systemand the external circumstance of it.
The character of this paper lies on: firstly, it analyzes the cause of theinternational financial crisis from the view of regulation, reviews the currentmechanism problem of the financial regulatory system, and proposes that theimprovement of effective regulation should start from changing the idea, focus andmethod of regulation. Secondly, under the framework of macro-prudential supervision,it defines the responsibility of regulators from the point of effective regulation.Dealing with non-normal fluctuations of the market, giving investors the right signalsand guidance, monitoring trading behavior of the major players in the market,strengthening the supervision of financial institutions and the internal control ofcorporate governance, and establishing the framework and tools of macro-prudentialregulation should be incorporated into the scope of effective regulation. And, in orderto prevent against systemic risk in the financial system as a whole, it proposes policyrecommendations to improve the financial regulatory. Thirdly, it stresses theregulation of systemically important banks. Supervision of systemically importantbank is the focus of financial regulatory reform of the post-crisis era, therefore thispaper uses CoVaR methods combined quantile regression to quantify the effect of riskspillover between China's listed banks and the risk contribution rate of individualbank contribute to the whole banking system, and makes the targeted regulatoryproposals on the basis of identification of systemically important financial institutions.Fourthly, it gives the specific criteria about effective supervision frommacroeconomic effects, industry effects as well as supervision efficiency, constructs acomprehensive measurement of regulatory effectiveness index system, and makes anempirical analysis of the effectiveness of China's financial regulation by usingthreshold regression method, while makes an objective evaluation on the effectiveness of China's banking regulation from time dimension.
引文
①邓小平同志1991年1月视察上海时的讲话，《邓小平文选》第三卷第366页
①沈联涛：《监管——谁来保护我投资》，江苏出版集团2010年版
①20国集团（G20）伦敦峰会公报，人民日报海外版，2009-04-03
①胡怀邦，《银行监管的国际规则与中国实践》，中国金融出版社，2007年8月
①Udaibir S. Das, Marc Quintyn,和Kina Chenard，Does Regulatory Governance Matter for Financial SystemStability? An Empirical Analysis，International Monetary Fund WP/04/89，IMF Working Paper，Monetary和Financial Systems Department，May2004
①《美国金融危机调查报告》美国金融危机调查委员会/著中信出版社，2012年8月
①《金融的变革》，谢平等主编，中国经济出版社，2011年4月
①《国际金融危机与金融监管改革》，王胜邦编译，中国金融出版社，2013年4月
①.温家宝在2013年3月5日十二届全国人大一次会议《政府工作报告》。
①马一佳.提高我国银行监管有效性探讨［D］.北京工业大学硕士学位论文，2005年5月.
②泽尔达.话说金融生态［J］.《中国金融家》，2010（4）.
①张威.中国银行监管的问题与对策研究［D］.天津财经大学博士学位论文，20080501.
①胡怀邦著.银行监管：国际经验与中国实践[M].北京：中国金融出版社，2008年7月第1版，P117
①吴晓灵：《让金融回归服务业》，2011年11月5日《新世纪》.
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①沈联涛：《监管——谁来保护我投资》，江苏出版集团2010年版
①20国集团（G20）伦敦峰会公报，人民日报海外版，2009-04-03
①胡怀邦，《银行监管的国际规则与中国实践》，中国金融出版社，2007年8月
①Udaibir S. Das, Marc Quintyn,和Kina Chenard，Does Regulatory Governance Matter for Financial SystemStability? An Empirical Analysis，International Monetary Fund WP/04/89，IMF Working Paper，Monetary和Financial Systems Department，May2004
①《美国金融危机调查报告》美国金融危机调查委员会/著中信出版社，2012年8月
①《金融的变革》，谢平等主编，中国经济出版社，2011年4月
①《国际金融危机与金融监管改革》，王胜邦编译，中国金融出版社，2013年4月
①.温家宝在2013年3月5日十二届全国人大一次会议《政府工作报告》。
①马一佳.提高我国银行监管有效性探讨［D］.北京工业大学硕士学位论文，2005年5月.
②泽尔达.话说金融生态［J］.《中国金融家》，2010（4）.
①张威.中国银行监管的问题与对策研究［D］.天津财经大学博士学位论文，20080501.
①胡怀邦著.银行监管：国际经验与中国实践[M].北京：中国金融出版社，2008年7月第1版，P117
①吴晓灵：《让金融回归服务业》，2011年11月5日《新世纪》.
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