城市区域火灾风险评估理论及应用
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摘要
随着我国经济建设迅猛发展,国家综合实力不断加强,城市化进程逐步加快,一大批高层建筑、大型地下工程、公共聚集场所大量涌现。人口密度和建筑、财富总量不断增加的同时,城市灾害也日益显出,其中,火灾被列为中国城市的头号威胁。因此,研究火灾发生机理、构建城市区域火灾风险评判体系、预测火灾发展事态、对区域火灾风险进行信息化管理,是国内外众多安全工作者研究的重要课题。
本文以城市区域火灾风险评估理论的研究为题,在充分查询、统计、分析1990年～2007年我国火灾四项统计指标数据及十大火灾原因比照数据的基础之上,借助概率论及数理统计、消防工程学、系统安全理论与灰色系统理论,分析了我国城市区域消防安全的严峻形势及火灾的危害特征,辨识出城市区域火灾的主要危险源,通过数学建模,建立火灾风险评估模型及火灾发展事态预测模型,研究开发了“城市区域火灾风险管理系统”软件。论文的创新性研究成果如下:
1.分析出我国城市区域火灾的主要特征及原因,在比照、研究了目前国内外城市区域火灾已有的研究成果及存在弊端基础之上,归纳总结出城市区域火灾风险评估的宽泛内涵;
2.在区域火灾风险评估及发展事态预测上,论文通过对区域火灾风险的定义、分类和准则研究,构建了区域火灾风险评估的基本原则和方法:以区域火灾风险发生的可能性(单体建筑存在火灾危险源)和区域火灾风险发生的严重性趋势(人员、财产密度、建筑结构特征、区域消防布局及消防力量)为研究对象,分析了相关火灾风险的分级、评估模型;从理论上建立了区域火灾风险的评估方法和火灾起数、人员伤亡、财产损失的预测方法。
3.为方便城市区域火灾风险的动态管理,论文分析出火灾风险管理的要素,重点通过delphi程序设计,开发出区域火灾风险管理可视化系统软件,该软件界面友好,人机对话方便,操作简单,方便了火灾基础数据的统计与查询、火灾风险评价、火灾趋势预测、重点单位消防地图查询。
以湘潭市某人员密集区域为例进行模型验证,结果表明:针对我国区域火灾风险评估理论的研究及应用是一项全面、系统的研究工作,不仅在理论上具有相当重要的价值,在实践中也取得了富有实效和重要推广价值的科研成果。
With the rapid development of economic construction of our country, reinforcement of national overall strength, and with the gradually quickening of urbanizing process, a large set of high buildings, underground engineering and public gathered places have sprung up. While population density and wealthy gross are increasing, the urban disaster are also increasingly raying, among then, fire is the top menace. Therefore, researches of fire mechanism, construction of risk evaluation system for urban area, prediction of fire development situation, Carry on information-based management to the district fire are the important research subjects for home and abroad safety works.
In this paper, fire risk evaluation theory of urban area is made as the title, based on full inquiries, statistics and analysis of four project statistical index data of our country from 1990 to 2007, and on the basis of comparison data of ten causes of fires, by the aid of probability and mathematical statistics, fire engineering, system safety theory and grey system theory, serious fire safety situation and injurious features of fire are analyzed, and main dangerous sources of urban area fire are differentiated. Through mathematical modeling, the model of fire risk evaluation and the predicting model macro fire development are established, and a fire risk management system in urban area are programmed:
1. Analytical main characteristic and reason of the district fire of our country city, induce to tally up the breadth suffused content of fire risk valuation of a city district based on contrast, studied the research result and the irregularity currently of fire risk valuation at home and abroad currently.
2. As to area fire, based on the risk evaluation and prediction of development situation, through the research on definition, sort and rules of risk, the basic principles and methods to evaluate risk are established. On the ground of that, taking occurrence probability and serious trend of area fire risk as research objects, the classification and evaluation model of correlative fire risk are analyzed, the evaluation method of area fire risk and predicting method of fire casualty and property loss are established in theory.
3. To facilitate dynamic management of urban area fire risk, the elements of fire risk management are analyzed; visualization system soft of area fire risk management is developed through Delphi programming design, this soft has friendly interface, convenient man-machine conversation and simple operation, it facilitates statistical inquiry of basic fire data, fire risk evaluation, fire trend prediction and fire controlling spatial query of important units.
Take some member in pond district of Xiangtan as an example to carry on the model identification, it indicate that studies and application on theory of area fire risk evaluation is a comprehensive and systematical work, it not only has quite importance in theory, but also it gets scientific research achievements of actual effect and popularization value in practice.
本文以城市区域火灾风险评估理论的研究为题,在充分查询、统计、分析1990年～2007年我国火灾四项统计指标数据及十大火灾原因比照数据的基础之上,借助概率论及数理统计、消防工程学、系统安全理论与灰色系统理论,分析了我国城市区域消防安全的严峻形势及火灾的危害特征,辨识出城市区域火灾的主要危险源,通过数学建模,建立火灾风险评估模型及火灾发展事态预测模型,研究开发了“城市区域火灾风险管理系统”软件。论文的创新性研究成果如下:
1.分析出我国城市区域火灾的主要特征及原因,在比照、研究了目前国内外城市区域火灾已有的研究成果及存在弊端基础之上,归纳总结出城市区域火灾风险评估的宽泛内涵;
2.在区域火灾风险评估及发展事态预测上,论文通过对区域火灾风险的定义、分类和准则研究,构建了区域火灾风险评估的基本原则和方法:以区域火灾风险发生的可能性(单体建筑存在火灾危险源)和区域火灾风险发生的严重性趋势(人员、财产密度、建筑结构特征、区域消防布局及消防力量)为研究对象,分析了相关火灾风险的分级、评估模型;从理论上建立了区域火灾风险的评估方法和火灾起数、人员伤亡、财产损失的预测方法。
3.为方便城市区域火灾风险的动态管理,论文分析出火灾风险管理的要素,重点通过delphi程序设计,开发出区域火灾风险管理可视化系统软件,该软件界面友好,人机对话方便,操作简单,方便了火灾基础数据的统计与查询、火灾风险评价、火灾趋势预测、重点单位消防地图查询。
以湘潭市某人员密集区域为例进行模型验证,结果表明:针对我国区域火灾风险评估理论的研究及应用是一项全面、系统的研究工作,不仅在理论上具有相当重要的价值,在实践中也取得了富有实效和重要推广价值的科研成果。
With the rapid development of economic construction of our country, reinforcement of national overall strength, and with the gradually quickening of urbanizing process, a large set of high buildings, underground engineering and public gathered places have sprung up. While population density and wealthy gross are increasing, the urban disaster are also increasingly raying, among then, fire is the top menace. Therefore, researches of fire mechanism, construction of risk evaluation system for urban area, prediction of fire development situation, Carry on information-based management to the district fire are the important research subjects for home and abroad safety works.
In this paper, fire risk evaluation theory of urban area is made as the title, based on full inquiries, statistics and analysis of four project statistical index data of our country from 1990 to 2007, and on the basis of comparison data of ten causes of fires, by the aid of probability and mathematical statistics, fire engineering, system safety theory and grey system theory, serious fire safety situation and injurious features of fire are analyzed, and main dangerous sources of urban area fire are differentiated. Through mathematical modeling, the model of fire risk evaluation and the predicting model macro fire development are established, and a fire risk management system in urban area are programmed:
1. Analytical main characteristic and reason of the district fire of our country city, induce to tally up the breadth suffused content of fire risk valuation of a city district based on contrast, studied the research result and the irregularity currently of fire risk valuation at home and abroad currently.
2. As to area fire, based on the risk evaluation and prediction of development situation, through the research on definition, sort and rules of risk, the basic principles and methods to evaluate risk are established. On the ground of that, taking occurrence probability and serious trend of area fire risk as research objects, the classification and evaluation model of correlative fire risk are analyzed, the evaluation method of area fire risk and predicting method of fire casualty and property loss are established in theory.
3. To facilitate dynamic management of urban area fire risk, the elements of fire risk management are analyzed; visualization system soft of area fire risk management is developed through Delphi programming design, this soft has friendly interface, convenient man-machine conversation and simple operation, it facilitates statistical inquiry of basic fire data, fire risk evaluation, fire trend prediction and fire controlling spatial query of important units.
Take some member in pond district of Xiangtan as an example to carry on the model identification, it indicate that studies and application on theory of area fire risk evaluation is a comprehensive and systematical work, it not only has quite importance in theory, but also it gets scientific research achievements of actual effect and popularization value in practice.
引文
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[18]伍爱友,肖国清.性能化设计方法在高层建筑防火设计中的应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2006,16(1):74-78.
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