我国粮食价格波动研究
|
摘要
粮食为民生之本,粮价乃百价之基。粮食价格问题一直是社会各界关注的热点。随着我国粮食市场的逐步放开,在市场供求规律和外部冲击因素共同作用下,我国粮食价格波动越来越频繁,粮食价格的大起大落不仅影响了生产者的利益和消费者的福利,给国民经济的持续、健康发展也带来很大的负面影响。
本文以小麦为例,借助现代经济学的理论和研究方法,从我国小麦市场供求关系和外部冲击因素出发,建立我国小麦价格波动和影响的分析框架,通过对小麦价格波动成因和机理进行分析,明确各主要影响因素的作用机理、影响方式和影响程度,并在此基础上分析我国小麦价格波动的传递效应和小麦生产者的供给反应行为。通过上述分析,以期为我国粮食价格调控政策的科学制定提供一点可供参考的依据。
为实现上述目标,本文采用定性和定量分析相结合的方法,在对相关文献梳理和价格波动理论把握的基础上,从具体的政策制度环境出发对我国小麦价格波动状况和原因进行了分析回顾,在此基础上运用供求和市场均衡理论,从内生传导和外生冲击角度分析影响我国小麦价格的具体因素及影响程度,同时,运用农产品供给理论和农户行为理论分析了价格波动对农户小麦播种面积决策的影响。
本文的具体研究内容、研究方法和主要结论如下：
第一章为本文选题依据和框架设计。
第二章为文献回顾与理论综述。
第三章在第一、第二章基础上运用时间趋势剔除法界定了我国小麦价格波动周期并分析其成因。分析表明：(1)1978-2009年我国小麦价格经历了7个周期性波动,小麦价格周期性波动特征较为明显,但波动周期没有一定的规律性。(2)分析小麦价格周期性变化原因时发现供求关系仍是主导小麦价格变动的主导因素,生产成本等因素对小麦价格带来相当程度的冲击,同时国家调控政策对小麦价格波动幅度有一定的抑制作用；通过对小麦市场价格波动地区间特征分析表明：我国小麦销区省份和西部省份价格波动变异系数明显高于产区价格波动变异系数。这一定程度上会有小麦销区和西部省份的生产薄弱性在小麦市场种可能会被放大,价格波动幅度会比产区大。
第四章主要从供求关系和外部冲击方面理论分析了我国小麦价格波动的成因和影响机理。分析表明：(1)我国小麦市场价格波动的主要因素还是来自供求关系、成本冲击和政策制度变动等方面因素,多种因素的综合作用导致小麦市场供给需求关系的变化,从而使得市场价格始终处于波动状态；(2)由于分散的、小规模的种植模式、日益上升的生产成本加之与其相关的加工流通体系不完善使得小麦市场供给的基本面稳定受到影响,同时基于消费习惯,我国的小麦需求稳定具有刚性,这往往使得波动的效应扩大化。
第五章在第四章价格波动成因和机理分析基础上,运用供求理论和市场均衡理论和方法,构建小麦价格影响因素模型实证分析供求因素和外部冲击因素对我国小麦价格的影响。分析表明：(1)生产资料价格等成本因素是推动小麦市场价格上涨的主要动力；(2)农户的市场预期也对小麦市场价格波动产生相当大的影响；(3)竞争作物价格变动对小麦市场价格带来显著的正向影响；(4)收入水平变动对小麦市场价格产生一定的正向影响；(5)反映国家粮食市场调控政策的流通体制改革在考察期内对小麦价格产生了正向影响；(6)自然灾害的冲击对小麦市场价格波动也有相当程度的正向影响。
第六章从我国小麦产销分离的现状出发考察我国小麦市场价格波动的传递效应。分析结果表明：(1)我国各地区小麦市场之间存在长期均衡关系,从长期看一个地区价格变动能引起另一地区价格的变动。(2)误差修正模型结果表明,我国小麦各地区市场之间的长期均衡关系制约着短期价格波动,这种偏离长期均衡的误差校正机制能减弱价格之间的偏离,促使价格向均衡调整,并且主产区的调整能普遍大于主销区的调整能力。(3)Granger因果检验结果表明小麦主产区市场价格对主销区市场价格引导作用明显,主销区市场价格对主产区市场价格引导作用比较弱。
第七章根据农产品供给理论和农户行为理论建立我国小麦播种面积的价格反应模型,分析价格波动对农户小麦播种面积的影响,结果表明：(1)在短期内,小麦播种面积对价格变动的反应敏感性不强；长期内小麦供给有弹性,能够针对价格变化做出反应。(2)农户播种决策受固定要素影响较大,短期内播种面积具有较强的刚性。
第八章在总结上述研究结论的基础上提出促进我国小麦市场健康运行,小麦产业稳定发展的政策措施：完善价格调控体系；加大农业基础建设和科研与推广；规范农资市场,稳定农资价格；保证生产者收益；保护耕地资源等方面的政策措施。
Foodstuffs are the basic of people's life and the price of them is the foundation of the price of all the other things. Foodstuffs price has always been the hot spot of people's concern from all walks of life. With the gradual liberalization of China's grain market, and in the common role of the law of supply-demand and external shock factors, the fluctuation of grain prices has been more and more frequent. The volatility in foodstuffs prices not only affects the interests of producers and the welfare of consumers, but also casues great negative impact on the sustainad and healthy development of National economy. Taking the wheat as an example, this paper tends to establish a system framework of the fluctuation and impacts on the wheat price so as to provide the scientific basis for grasping the characteristics of fluctuation, influencing factors, the ripple effect and the implement of regulating policy with the help of the theory and research methods of modern economics and starting from the supply and demand in the wheat market and the environment of our policy and system. This paper tends to provide some referential basis for the scientific establishment of China's grain price control policy through the above analysis.
The specific research contents, method and main conclusions of this paper are as follows:
Chapter III of this paper defines scientifically the fluctuation cycle and analyzes the factors of the price of wheat in China by time-trend remove method, Analysis shows that:(1) The price of wheat in China has experienced seven cyclical fluctuations since1978, wheat prices shows obvious features of cyclical fluctuations, but there is no a certain regularity price fluctuation cycle.(2) To analyze the reasons for the price of wheat was found cyclical changes in supply and demand changes in the price of wheat is still the the dominant factor in production costs and other factors on the price of wheat has brought a considerable degree of impact, while state regulatory policies on the volatility of wheat prices there is a certain inhibition; fluctuations in market prices of wheat through the inter-regional characteristics analysis showed that:China's provinces and sales areas of wheat price fluctuations in the western provinces of the coefficient of variation was significantly higher than the coefficient of variation of price fluctuations areas. This will to some extent, sales areas and western provinces of wheat production in the wheat market, the weak nature of species may be enlarged, the price volatility than larger areas.
The fourth chapter theoretically analyzes the causes and the impact mechanism of wheat price fluctuation from the aspects of supply and demand and external shocks. Analysis shows that:(1) The main causes of the fluctuation of wheat market price are coming from the factors of supply and demand, the macroeconomic situation and policy changes, etc. The combined effect of multiple factors led to the changes of supply and demand in wheat market, making wheat market price in the state of fluctuation;(2) The scattered, small-scale cropping patterns, coupled with the no perfect industrial processing and circulation system and the increasing cost of production affect the fundamental stability in the wheat supply market. The demand of wheat in China has rigid stability because of consumption habits which expands the effect of fluctuation.
Chapter IV empirically analyzes the influence of supply and demand factors and external shocks on wheat market price by the construction of price factor model and the use of supply and demand theory and market equilibrium methods on the basis of the analysis in the fourth chapter. Analysis shows that:(1) Price and other cost factors of production are the main driving force to promote the market price of wheat;(2) Farmers' market expectation is also a factor of price fluctuation;(3) The price fluctuation of competing crops has significantly effect on the market price of wheat;(4) The effect of demanding factors including income levels and population growth rate is not significant;(5) The reform of circulation system which reflects the regulation and control policy of national food market has a significant impact on the price of wheat;(6) The impact of natural disasters on the wheat market prices is significant.
Chapter VI mainly analyzes the transmission effect of market price fluctuation of wheat from the perspectives of both regional markets in China and domestic and international markets. In terms of the transmission effect of domestic market:(1) The wheat markets in China between regions show cointegration relationship, and the price fluctuation price changes in a region can lead to price changes in another area in the long term.(2) The result of the error correction model shows that the long-term equilibrium relationship between the wheat regional markets restricts the short-term price fluctuation. Such an error correction mechanism departure can decrease the deviation between the prices and make the price adjustment to equilibrium. Besides adjustment ability in the production areas could be generally greater than the ability in the sales areas.(3) The results of Granger causality test show that the guiding effect of market price in the wheat-growing areas on the market price in the sales areas is significant, however the guiding effect of market price in the sales areas on the market price in wheat-growing areas is weak.
Chapter VII analyzes the impact of price fluctuation on the production and supply of wheat, starting from the characteristics of production price reaction of the wheat by establishing the price of production response model according to the theory of supply of agricultural products and assumption of farmers' rational decision-making. The results show that:(1) The reflection of wheat production to the price fluctuation is insensitive in short order, while it is flexible of the supply of wheat and there is reflection of wheat production to the price fluctuation in long order;(2) The seeded areas in short order show strong rigidity because farmers planting decisions are influenced by the fixed elements.
Chapter VIII puts forward some policy measures to promote the health operation and stable development of the wheat market on the basis of the above research conclusions from the aspects of completing price control system, strengthening agricultural infrastructure and R&D and promotion, standarizing the agricultural market, ensuring the
本文以小麦为例,借助现代经济学的理论和研究方法,从我国小麦市场供求关系和外部冲击因素出发,建立我国小麦价格波动和影响的分析框架,通过对小麦价格波动成因和机理进行分析,明确各主要影响因素的作用机理、影响方式和影响程度,并在此基础上分析我国小麦价格波动的传递效应和小麦生产者的供给反应行为。通过上述分析,以期为我国粮食价格调控政策的科学制定提供一点可供参考的依据。
为实现上述目标,本文采用定性和定量分析相结合的方法,在对相关文献梳理和价格波动理论把握的基础上,从具体的政策制度环境出发对我国小麦价格波动状况和原因进行了分析回顾,在此基础上运用供求和市场均衡理论,从内生传导和外生冲击角度分析影响我国小麦价格的具体因素及影响程度,同时,运用农产品供给理论和农户行为理论分析了价格波动对农户小麦播种面积决策的影响。
本文的具体研究内容、研究方法和主要结论如下：
第一章为本文选题依据和框架设计。
第二章为文献回顾与理论综述。
第三章在第一、第二章基础上运用时间趋势剔除法界定了我国小麦价格波动周期并分析其成因。分析表明：(1)1978-2009年我国小麦价格经历了7个周期性波动,小麦价格周期性波动特征较为明显,但波动周期没有一定的规律性。(2)分析小麦价格周期性变化原因时发现供求关系仍是主导小麦价格变动的主导因素,生产成本等因素对小麦价格带来相当程度的冲击,同时国家调控政策对小麦价格波动幅度有一定的抑制作用；通过对小麦市场价格波动地区间特征分析表明：我国小麦销区省份和西部省份价格波动变异系数明显高于产区价格波动变异系数。这一定程度上会有小麦销区和西部省份的生产薄弱性在小麦市场种可能会被放大,价格波动幅度会比产区大。
第四章主要从供求关系和外部冲击方面理论分析了我国小麦价格波动的成因和影响机理。分析表明：(1)我国小麦市场价格波动的主要因素还是来自供求关系、成本冲击和政策制度变动等方面因素,多种因素的综合作用导致小麦市场供给需求关系的变化,从而使得市场价格始终处于波动状态；(2)由于分散的、小规模的种植模式、日益上升的生产成本加之与其相关的加工流通体系不完善使得小麦市场供给的基本面稳定受到影响,同时基于消费习惯,我国的小麦需求稳定具有刚性,这往往使得波动的效应扩大化。
第五章在第四章价格波动成因和机理分析基础上,运用供求理论和市场均衡理论和方法,构建小麦价格影响因素模型实证分析供求因素和外部冲击因素对我国小麦价格的影响。分析表明：(1)生产资料价格等成本因素是推动小麦市场价格上涨的主要动力；(2)农户的市场预期也对小麦市场价格波动产生相当大的影响；(3)竞争作物价格变动对小麦市场价格带来显著的正向影响；(4)收入水平变动对小麦市场价格产生一定的正向影响；(5)反映国家粮食市场调控政策的流通体制改革在考察期内对小麦价格产生了正向影响；(6)自然灾害的冲击对小麦市场价格波动也有相当程度的正向影响。
第六章从我国小麦产销分离的现状出发考察我国小麦市场价格波动的传递效应。分析结果表明：(1)我国各地区小麦市场之间存在长期均衡关系,从长期看一个地区价格变动能引起另一地区价格的变动。(2)误差修正模型结果表明,我国小麦各地区市场之间的长期均衡关系制约着短期价格波动,这种偏离长期均衡的误差校正机制能减弱价格之间的偏离,促使价格向均衡调整,并且主产区的调整能普遍大于主销区的调整能力。(3)Granger因果检验结果表明小麦主产区市场价格对主销区市场价格引导作用明显,主销区市场价格对主产区市场价格引导作用比较弱。
第七章根据农产品供给理论和农户行为理论建立我国小麦播种面积的价格反应模型,分析价格波动对农户小麦播种面积的影响,结果表明：(1)在短期内,小麦播种面积对价格变动的反应敏感性不强；长期内小麦供给有弹性,能够针对价格变化做出反应。(2)农户播种决策受固定要素影响较大,短期内播种面积具有较强的刚性。
第八章在总结上述研究结论的基础上提出促进我国小麦市场健康运行,小麦产业稳定发展的政策措施：完善价格调控体系；加大农业基础建设和科研与推广；规范农资市场,稳定农资价格；保证生产者收益；保护耕地资源等方面的政策措施。
Foodstuffs are the basic of people's life and the price of them is the foundation of the price of all the other things. Foodstuffs price has always been the hot spot of people's concern from all walks of life. With the gradual liberalization of China's grain market, and in the common role of the law of supply-demand and external shock factors, the fluctuation of grain prices has been more and more frequent. The volatility in foodstuffs prices not only affects the interests of producers and the welfare of consumers, but also casues great negative impact on the sustainad and healthy development of National economy. Taking the wheat as an example, this paper tends to establish a system framework of the fluctuation and impacts on the wheat price so as to provide the scientific basis for grasping the characteristics of fluctuation, influencing factors, the ripple effect and the implement of regulating policy with the help of the theory and research methods of modern economics and starting from the supply and demand in the wheat market and the environment of our policy and system. This paper tends to provide some referential basis for the scientific establishment of China's grain price control policy through the above analysis.
The specific research contents, method and main conclusions of this paper are as follows:
Chapter III of this paper defines scientifically the fluctuation cycle and analyzes the factors of the price of wheat in China by time-trend remove method, Analysis shows that:(1) The price of wheat in China has experienced seven cyclical fluctuations since1978, wheat prices shows obvious features of cyclical fluctuations, but there is no a certain regularity price fluctuation cycle.(2) To analyze the reasons for the price of wheat was found cyclical changes in supply and demand changes in the price of wheat is still the the dominant factor in production costs and other factors on the price of wheat has brought a considerable degree of impact, while state regulatory policies on the volatility of wheat prices there is a certain inhibition; fluctuations in market prices of wheat through the inter-regional characteristics analysis showed that:China's provinces and sales areas of wheat price fluctuations in the western provinces of the coefficient of variation was significantly higher than the coefficient of variation of price fluctuations areas. This will to some extent, sales areas and western provinces of wheat production in the wheat market, the weak nature of species may be enlarged, the price volatility than larger areas.
The fourth chapter theoretically analyzes the causes and the impact mechanism of wheat price fluctuation from the aspects of supply and demand and external shocks. Analysis shows that:(1) The main causes of the fluctuation of wheat market price are coming from the factors of supply and demand, the macroeconomic situation and policy changes, etc. The combined effect of multiple factors led to the changes of supply and demand in wheat market, making wheat market price in the state of fluctuation;(2) The scattered, small-scale cropping patterns, coupled with the no perfect industrial processing and circulation system and the increasing cost of production affect the fundamental stability in the wheat supply market. The demand of wheat in China has rigid stability because of consumption habits which expands the effect of fluctuation.
Chapter IV empirically analyzes the influence of supply and demand factors and external shocks on wheat market price by the construction of price factor model and the use of supply and demand theory and market equilibrium methods on the basis of the analysis in the fourth chapter. Analysis shows that:(1) Price and other cost factors of production are the main driving force to promote the market price of wheat;(2) Farmers' market expectation is also a factor of price fluctuation;(3) The price fluctuation of competing crops has significantly effect on the market price of wheat;(4) The effect of demanding factors including income levels and population growth rate is not significant;(5) The reform of circulation system which reflects the regulation and control policy of national food market has a significant impact on the price of wheat;(6) The impact of natural disasters on the wheat market prices is significant.
Chapter VI mainly analyzes the transmission effect of market price fluctuation of wheat from the perspectives of both regional markets in China and domestic and international markets. In terms of the transmission effect of domestic market:(1) The wheat markets in China between regions show cointegration relationship, and the price fluctuation price changes in a region can lead to price changes in another area in the long term.(2) The result of the error correction model shows that the long-term equilibrium relationship between the wheat regional markets restricts the short-term price fluctuation. Such an error correction mechanism departure can decrease the deviation between the prices and make the price adjustment to equilibrium. Besides adjustment ability in the production areas could be generally greater than the ability in the sales areas.(3) The results of Granger causality test show that the guiding effect of market price in the wheat-growing areas on the market price in the sales areas is significant, however the guiding effect of market price in the sales areas on the market price in wheat-growing areas is weak.
Chapter VII analyzes the impact of price fluctuation on the production and supply of wheat, starting from the characteristics of production price reaction of the wheat by establishing the price of production response model according to the theory of supply of agricultural products and assumption of farmers' rational decision-making. The results show that:(1) The reflection of wheat production to the price fluctuation is insensitive in short order, while it is flexible of the supply of wheat and there is reflection of wheat production to the price fluctuation in long order;(2) The seeded areas in short order show strong rigidity because farmers planting decisions are influenced by the fixed elements.
Chapter VIII puts forward some policy measures to promote the health operation and stable development of the wheat market on the basis of the above research conclusions from the aspects of completing price control system, strengthening agricultural infrastructure and R&D and promotion, standarizing the agricultural market, ensuring the
引文
[1]A.M.Bayes, K.A. Parton and R.R.Piggott. Combined Price Support and Fertilizer Subsidy Policies for Food Self-sufficiency:A Case Study of Rice in Bangladesh. Food Policy. Volume 10, Issue 3, August 1985, Pages 225-236
[2]Agriculture and Rural Development Department of World Bank, Managing Food Price Risks and Instability in an Environment of Market Liberalization.2006. World Bank, Washington, DC.
[3]Agriculture and Rural Development Department of World Bank, Managing Food Price Risks and Instability in an Environment of Market Liberalization.2006. World Bank, Washington, DC.
[4]Alexander H. Sarris, Has World Cereal Market Instability Increased?, Food Policy 25 (2000) Pages 337-350
[5]Asfaha, T.A. and Jooste, A.:The Effect of Monetary Changes on Relative Agricultural Prices, Agrekon,46(4),2007.
[6]Benjamin Senauer, A Protectionist Foodgrain Price Policy:The Case of Rice in Panama, Food Policy. Volume 10, Issue 4, November 1985,352-364
[8]BERGSON, A. A Reformulation of Certain Aspects of Welfare Economics [J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1938,52(2)
[9]Blume,L., D. Rubinfeld and P. Shapiro., "The Taking of Land:When Should Compensation Be Paid?", Quart. J. Econ.99(February),1984, Pages 71-92
[10]Booth, G. G., Brockman, P., and Tse, Y., "The Relationship Between US and Canadian Wheat Futures ", Applied Financial Economics,1998 (8).
[11]C Peter Timmer. Food Price Policy:The Rationale for Government Intervention. Food Policy, Volume 14, Issue 1, February 1989, Pages 17-27
[12]Chen Li-Hsueh,Finney M., Lai Kon S.. A Threshold Cointegration Analysis of Asymmetric Price Transmission From Crude Oil to Gasoline Prices. Economic Letters,2005(89):233-239
[13]Christopher B. Barrett on Price Risk and the Inverse Farm Size-productivity Relationship. Journal of Development Economics, Volume 51, Issue 2, December 1996, Pages 193-215
[14]Chung Ming Wong. Welfare Implications of Commodity Price Stabilization Under Export Restrictions. Journal of Development Economics, Volume 32, Issue 1, January 1990, Pages 93-112
[15]Claes Berg, Lars Jonung. Pioneering Price Level Targeting:The Swedish Experience 1931-1937. Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 43, Issue 3, June 1999, Pages 525-551
[16]Colin Poulton, Jonathan Kydd, Steve Wiggins, Andrew Dorward. State Intervention for Food Price Stabilisation in Africa:Can it Work?. Food Policy, Volume 31, Issue 4, August 2006, Pages 342-356
[17]Cramer, G. L., Wailes E. J. and Shui, S,1993. "Impacts of Liberalizing Trade in the World Rice Market", American Journal of Agriculture Econamics,75(1):219-226.
[18]Derek Byerlee, T.S. Jayne, Robert J. Myers. Managing Food Price Risks and Instability in a Liberalizing Market Environment:Overview and Policy Options. Food Policy, Volume 31, Issue 4, August 2006, Pages 275-287
[19]Donald Mitchell, A Note on Rising Food Prices, The World Bank,Development Prospects Group, JULY 2008, http://econ.worldbank.org
[20]Douglas J. M., Hayenga M. L. Price Cycle and Asymmetric Price Transmission in the U. S. Pork Market. American Journal of Agricultural Econamics,2001(3):551-562
[21]FAO, "Crop Prospects and Food Situation," February 2008
[22]FAO, "Growing Demand on Agriculture and Rising Prices of Commodities," February 2008.http://www.ifad.org/events/gc/31/roundtable/food.pdf
[23]Fischel, W., and P. Shapiro,1989. "A Constitutional Choice Model of Compensation for Taking", Reviews of Law and Econ, (9):115-128.
[24]Frank Ellis, Piyadasa Senanayake, Marisol Smith. Food price policy in Sri Lanka. Food Policy, Volume 22, Issue 1, February 1997, Pages 81-96
[25]Gardner, B., "The Farm-Retail Price Spread in a Competitive Food Industry", American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1975,57 (3),399-409.
[26]Gong, W.;Parton, K.;Cox, R.J.and Zhou, Z.:Transaction Costs and Cattle Farmers'Choice of Marketing Channels in China:A Tobit Analysis, Management Research News, Vol.30,2007.
[27]Gonzalez-Rivera. G., Helfand. S. M., The Extern, Pattern, and Degree of Market Integration:A Multivariate Approach for the Brazillian Rice Market, American Journal of Agricultural Econamics,2001 Vol.83:576-592
[28]IFPRI, von Braun, J. "The World Food Situation:New Driving Forces and Required Actions," IFPRI, December 2007. http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/fpr/pr18.pdf
[29]Joachim von Braun, "The World Food Situation, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C., December 2007
[30]Johnson, Gale and Song, Guoqing:Inflation and the Real Price of Grain, Food Security and Economic Reform, McMillan Press,1999.
[31]Johnson, M.B.,1977. "Planning Without Prices:A Discussion of Land Use Regulation Without Compensation. Planning Without Prices." B. Siegan, ed. Lexington MA, Lexington Books.
[32]Lana Halla and Turner Price, Price Policies and the SAM:A wheat-maize Comparison, Food Policy, Volume 7, Issue 4, November 1982, Pages:302-314
[33]Lin, Yifu; Song, Guoqing et al.:China's Grain Marketing and Price Volatility, an Unpublished Report Submitted to World Bank,1997.
[34]McCorriston, S., C.Morgan, and A.Rayner, "Processing Technology,Market Structure and Price Transmission", Journal of Agricultural Economics,1998,49,185-201.
[35]Orden, David and Fackler, Paul L.:Identifying Monetary Impacts on Agricultural Prices in VAR Models, American Agricultural Economics Association,71(2),1989.
[36]Otsuka K. and Hayami Y,1985. "Goals and Consequences of Rice Policy in Japan,1965-80", American Journal of Agricultural Economics,67(3):529-538.
[37]R.F. Engle, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation, Econometrica 50 (1982) Pages 987-1007
[38]Renan ZHUANG&Philip ABBOTT, Price Elasticities of Key Agricultural Commodities in China, China Economic Review,2007(18) Pages 155-169
[39]Richard Just, Ernst Lutz, Andrew Schmitz, Stephen Turnovsky. The Distribution of Welfare Gains from Price Stabilization:An International Perspective. Journal of International Economics, Volume 8, Issue 4, November 1978, Pages 551-563
[40]Ronald Trostle,2008 Global Agricultural Supply and Demand:Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices.
[41]Saghaian, Sayed H.; Reed, Michael R.; Marchant, Mary A.:Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in an Open Economy, American Journal of Agricultural Economics,84(1), 2002.
[42]SAH.R, J.STIGLIT. The Economics ofPrice Scissors[J]. The American Economic Review,1984, 74(1)
[43]Shahidur Rashid 2007, Food Price Stabilization Policies in a Globalizing World, Food Policy for Developing Countries:the Role of Government in the Global Food System,2007, Cornell University, New York.
[44]Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, Martin Uribe, Price level Determinacy and Monetary Policy under a Balanced-budget Requirement. Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 45, Issue 1, February 2000, Pages 211-246
[45]T. Bollerslev, Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity, Journal of Econometrics 31 (1986)Pages 307-327
[46]Thomas C. Pinckney. Is Market Liberalization Compatible with Food Security?:Storage, Trade and Price Policies for Maize in Southern Africa. Food Policy, Volume 18, Issue 4, August 1993, Pages 325-333
[47]U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), "Agricultural Projections to 2017," 2008a. February. http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/OCE081/OCE20081.pdf
[48]Ulrich A. and W.H. Furtan and Andrew Schmitz.,1987. "The Cost of a Licensing System Regulation:An Example from Canadian Praire Agriculture", Journal of Political Economy (95):160-178.
[49]USDA, "Grain:World Markets and Trade," October 2007
[50]USDA,2008. "Grain:World Markets and Trade," March 2008
[51]Weldegebriel, H., "Imperfect Price Transmission:Is market Power Really to Blame? " Journal of Agricultural Economics,2004,55 (1),101-114.
[52]卜轶彪.中国小麦市场流通的变化与趋势[D].中国农业科学院硕士学位论文,2004
[53]蔡荣.农产品市场价格形成机制理论与实证分析[D].华中农业大学博士学位论文,2008.
[54]陈艳飞.从粮价上涨看控制CPI的艰巨性——粮食价格上涨对CPI影响实证分析[J].中国统计,2008(11)：33-35.
[55]程国强,徐雪高.改革开放以来我国农产品价格波动的回顾[J].改革开放以来我国农产品价格波动的回顾,2009 vo123(4)：1-3.
[56]程国强.粮价异常波动亟须综合调控[J]中国发展观察,2010(6)：5-6.
[57]程杰,武拉平.我国主要粮食作物生产波动周期研究：1949-2006年[J].农业技术经济,2007(5)：80-87.
[58]程瑞芳.我国农产品价格形成机制及波动效应分析[J].中国流通经济,2007(3)：22-24.
[59]程漱兰.论粮食流通体制改革的政府动力机制[J].经济研究,1997(8)：56-66.
[60]戴春芳,贺小斌,冷崇总.改革开放以来我国粮食价格波动分析[J].价格月刊,2008(6)：5-12.
[61]丁声俊.论国家粮食储备和粮食价格[J].粮食科技与经济,2008(3)：9-13.
[62]丁守海.国际粮价波动对我国粮价的影响分析[J].经济科学,2009(2)：60-71.
[63]丁文斌.我国玉米期货价格影响因素与波动特征分析[D].华中农业大学博士学位论文,2009.
[64]董国新.我国粮食供求区域均衡状况及其变化趋势研究——基于粮食生产者和消费者行为分析[D].浙江大学博士学位论文,2007.
[65]董进.宏观经济波动周期的测度[J].经济研究,2006(7)：41-48.
[66]董克伟.外资参与竞争性收购影响粮价波动[N].中国改革报,2010年7月26日第002版.
[67]董玲.我国猪肉价格波动研究[D].内蒙古农业大学博士学位论文,2010.
[68]董全海.农产品价格与产量波动趋势之供求分析一兼与陈志国、李惠茹二同志商榷[J].经济研 究,1996(6)：54-61.
[69]董晓霞,许世卫,李哲敏,李干琼.完全竞争条件下的中国生鲜农产品市场价格传导——以西红柿为例.[J].中国农村经济,2011(2)：22-32
[70]董晓霞,许世卫,李哲敏,李干琼.中国肉鸡养殖业的价格传导机制研究——基于FDL模型的实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2011(3)：21-30
[71]杜为长,科尔曼.中国农作物播种面积对价格变化反应的实证分析[J].中国农村观察,1997(2)：33-38.
[72]方鸿.中国粮食最低收购价合理确定机制研究[J].经济与管理,2009(4)：20-25.
[73]方湖柳.人民币升值对农产品价格的影响[J].农业经济问题,2009(7)：84-90.
[74]冯云.中国粮食价格波动的实证分析[J].价格月刊,2008(2)：41-44.
[75]傅晓,牛宝俊.国际农产品价格波动的特点、规律与趋势[J].中国农村经济,2009(5)：87-96.
[76]高小蒙,向宁.中国农业价格政策分析.杭州：浙江人民出版社,1992.
[77]高瑛.基于粮食安全保障的我国粮食产销利益协调机制研究[D].南京农业大学博士学位论文,2006.
[78]顾国达,方晨靓.农产品价格波动的国内传导路径及其非对称性研究[J].农业技术经济,2011(3)：12-20
[79]郭劲光.粮食价格波动对人口福利变动的影响评估[J]中国人口科学,2009(6)：49-58.
[80]郭劲光.政府救济政策制定的时序结构与制度安排：基于大宗粮食商品价格波动的视角[J].农业经济问题,2010(12)：25-29.
[81]郭忠兴.制度和政策因素对粮食供给的影响：以江苏为例[D].南京农业大学博士学位论文,1999.
[82]韩胜飞.市场整合研究方法与传达的信息[J].经济学(季刊),2007 vol6(4)：1359-1372.
[83]韩艳旗,王红玲.新形势下农资价格大幅上涨对“三农”的影响分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2008(6)：39-43.
[84]韩一军,赵玉田.粮食主销区市场放开后的效果、问题与政策建议——浙江、广东、海南三省粮食流通体制改革的调查报告[J].中国农村经济,2002(2)：55-61.
[85]何蒲明,黎东升,王雅鹏.储备粮运作与粮食价格变动关系的实证分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2010.vol31(4)：17-22.
[86]何蒲明,黎东升.基于粮食安全的粮食产量和价格波动实证研究[J].农业技术经济,2009(2)：85-92.
[87]胡冰川,徐枫,董晓霞.国际农产品价格波动因素分析——基于时间序列的经济计量模型[J].中国农村经济,2009(7)：86-97.
[88]胡锋.1990年以来的粮食价格水平波动研究[J].中国粮食经济,2008(5)：23-25.
[89]胡华平,李崇光.农产品垂直价格传递与纵向市场联结[J].农业经济问题,2010(1)：10-17
[90]胡雪梅.我国棉农棉花播种面积决策——基于价格变化视角的研究[D].南京农业大学博士学位论文,2008.
[91]华仁海,陈百助.国内、国际期货市场期货价格之间的关联研究[J].经济学(季刊),2004vo13(3)：727-742.
[92]黄季焜,Scott Rozelle,解玉平,张敏.从农产品价格保护程度和市场整合看入世对中国农业的影响[J].管理世界,2002(9)：84-94
[93]黄季焜,杨军,仇焕广,徐志刚.本轮粮食价格的大起大落：主要原因及未来走势[J].管理世界,2009(1)：72-78.
[94]冀名峰.国有粮食企业行为研究[D].中国农业大学博士学位论文,2003.
[95]姜楠,方天堃,聂凤英.开放经济体系下汇率变动对农产品价格的影响[J]农业技术经济,2006(5)：50-53.
[96]蒋乃华.价格因素对我国粮食生产影响的实证分析[J1.中国农村观察,1998(5)：14-20.
[97]蒋乃华.我国粮食市场价格波动的成因及其稳定对策[J].农业经济,1999(8)：10-12.
[98]蒋乃华.中国粮食生产与价格波动研究[D].南京农业大学博士学位论文,1998.
[99]金和辉.计划、市场和中国农民的粮食供给行为[J].经济研究,1990(9)：62-69.
[100]敬艳辉.我国市场粮价波动影响因素的实证研究[D].西南财经大学硕士学位论文,2007.
[101]柯柄生.我国粮食市场上的价格信号问题[J].中国农村经济,1991(6)：23-27.
[102]柯柄生.再论我国粮食市场上的价格问题[J].中国农村经济,1992(6)：19-25.
[103]柯炳生.中国粮食市场与政策[M].北京：中国农业出版社,1995
[104]雷钦礼.中国粮食生产的价格作用机制分析[J].统计研究,2005(3)：24-28.
[105]冷崇总.我国粮食价格波动问题研究[J].价格与市场,2008(7)：22-28.
[106]李国祥.2003年以来中国农产品价格上涨分析[J].中国农村经济,2011(2)：11-20
[107]李晖.粮食价格波动与政府调控[J]农村经济,2004(11)：39-40.
[108]李敬辉,范志勇.利率调整和通货膨胀预期对大宗商品价格波动的影响——基于中国市场粮价和通货膨胀关系的经验研究[J].经济研究,2005(6)：61-68.
[109]李琴,孙良媛.棉花价格、进口及库存的互动关系[J].中国农村经济,2005(7)：71-77.
[110]李圣君,李素芳,孔祥智.农业产业链条价格传递机制的实证分析[J].技术经济,2010vo129(1)：108-122
[111]李伟克,马晓河.中国农产品价格季节变动的分析[J].中国农村观察,1998(2)：26-31.
[112]李文,李兴平,汪三贵.农产品价格变化对贫困地区农户收入的影响[J].中国农村经济,2003(12)：18-21.
[113]李先德,王士海.国际粮食市场波动对中国的影响及政策思考[J]农业经济问题,2009(9)：9-15.
[114]刘刚.外资进入我国粮食流通领域产生的影响及应对措施[J].中国外资,2008(11)：44-45.
[115]刘家富,李秉龙,李孝忠.基于VAR模型的国产大豆和豆油市场价格传导研究[J].农业技术经济,2010(8)：33-38.
[116]刘喜明.国际粮食价格波动对中国经济的影响[D].浙江大学博士学位论文,2009.
[117]刘晓雪,李书友.中国粮食市场60年发展历程与变迁特点[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版),2010 vo125(2)：1-5.
[118]刘颖.市场化形势下我国粮食流通体制改革研究[D].华中农业大学博士学位论文,2006.
[119]卢波.中央储备粮管理机制研究[D]新疆农业大学博士学位论文,2006.
[120]卢锋,彭凯翔.我国长期米价研究(1644-2000)[J].经济学(季刊),2005 voM(2)：427-459.
[121]卢锋,彭凯翔.中国粮价与通货膨胀关系(1987-1999)[J].经济学(季刊),2007 voll(4)：821-833.
[122]卢锋,谢亚.我国粮食供求与价格走势(1980-2007)——粮价波动、宏观稳定及粮食安全问题探讨[J].管理世界,2008(3)：70-80.
[123]陆文聪,西爱琴.农户农业生产的风险反应：以浙江为例的MOTAD模型分析[J].中国农村经济,2005(12)：68-75.
[124]吕东辉,杨印生,吕洪建.投机力量主导下的粮价波动：来自期货市场的实证研究[J].农业技术经济,2009(2)：92-95.
[125]罗锋,牛宝俊.国际农产品价格波动对国内农产品价格的传递效应——基于VAR模型的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2009(6)：16-22.
[126]罗锋,牛宝俊.国际农产品价格波动对国内农产品价格的传递效应——基于VAR模型的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2009(6)：16-22.
[127]罗万纯,刘锐.中国粮食价格波动分析：基于ARCH类模型[J].中国农村经济,2010(4)：30-37.
[128]罗孝玲.基于粮食价格的我国粮食安全问题研究[D].中南大学博士学位论文,2005.
[129]马九杰,张传宗.中国粮食储备规模模拟优化与政策分析[J].管理世界,2002(9)：95-105,113.
[130]马文杰.我国粮食综合生产能力研究[D].华中农业大学博士学位论文,2006.
[131]马晓河.当前农产品价格上涨成因分析与走势利断[J].中国物价,2008(4)：3-6.
[132]梅燕.中国粮食供求区域均衡变化研究——模型构建与模拟分析[D].浙江大学,2008.
[133]苗齐,钟甫宁.我国粮食储备规模的变动及其对供应和价格的影响[J].农业经济问题,2006(11)：9-14.
[134]祁民.国际视野下的农产品价格风险管理研究[D].华东师范大学博士学位论文,2008.
[135]邵鲁.我国粮食供求、价格波动与安全问题的实证分析[D].吉林大学博士学位论文,2009.
[136]石敏俊,王妍,朱杏珍.能源价格波动与粮食价格波动对城乡经济关系的影响——基于城乡投入产出模型[J].中国农村经济,2009(5)：4-13.
[137]司伟,王秀清.中国糖料的供给反应[J].中国农村观察2006(4)
[138]宋一君.库存变化与粮食价格波动关系研究[D].南京农业大学硕士学位论文,2009年6月.
[139]孙杭生,顾焕章.我国粮食收购保护价政策及定价机制研究[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2002vol2(1)：11-17.
[140]孙希芳,牟春胜.通货膨胀_真实利率与农户粮食库存1980_2003年中国农户存粮行为的实证分析[J].中国农村观察,2004(6)：23-33.
[141]谭砚文.中国棉花生产波动研究[D].华中农业大学博士学位论文,2004.
[142]陶昌盛.中国粮食定价机制研究[D].复旦大学博士学位论文,2004.
[143]田彩云,郭心义.我国玉米期货市场发现价格功能的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2006(6)：52-57,71.
[144]万广华,周章跃,陈良彪.我国水稻市场整合程度研究[J].中国农村经济,1997(8)：45-51.
[145]万广华,周章跃,陈良彪.我国水稻市场整合程度研究[J].中国农村经济,1997(8)：45-51.
[146]王德文,黄季焜.双轨制度下中国农户粮食供给反应分析[J].经济研究,2001(12)：55-65.
[147]王德文.中国粮食双轨制度的政治经济学分析[D].南京农业大学博士学位论文,2000.
[148]王芳,陈俊安.中国养猪业价格波动的传导机制分析[J].中国农村经济,2009(7)：31-41.
[149]王济明.我国的大豆经济：供给与需求的重点分析[D].中国农业科学院博士学位论文,2000.
[150]王健.我国粮食流通体制改革中的期货市场利用问题研究[D].浙江大学博士学位论文,2004.
[151]王莉.农户粮食种植面积与粮价的相关性研究——基于全国农村固定观察点的农户调查数据[J].农业技术经济,2010(9)：90-96.
[152]王龙飞,吕嘉林.中国粮食进出口对粮食价格影响实证研究[J].改革与开放,2009(11)：76-77.
[153]王宁,司伟,王秀清.我国北方小麦收购市场与面粉零售市场的整合研究[J].农业经济问题,2008(6)：33-37.
[154]王文斌,戴金平.国际粮食价格与其产量、消费和库存——基于时间序列的实证研究：1980-2007年[J].国际贸易问题,2009(5)：35-40.
[155]王秀清,钱小平.1981-2000年中国农产品价格上涨的波及效应[J].中国农村经济,2004(2)：12-16.
[156]王艺明.外部金融冲击下的稳定政策与农产品价格[J].厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2009(12)：88-93.
[157]王志彬.中国粮价波动及稳定机制研究[D].华中科技大学博士学位论文,2007.
[158]卫龙宝,许伟良.开放市场条件下粮食生产者价格风险的管理手段与选择[J].农业经济问题,2003(2)：67-71.
[159]温厉,温铁军.中国粮食供给周期与价格比较分析[J].管理世界,1997(4)：169-176.
[160]温厉,温铁军.中国粮食供给周期与价格比较分析[J].中国农村观察,1997(5)：40-44.
[161]吴强.贸易自由化下的中国农产品贸易政策变动之影响分析[D].南京农业大学博士学位论文,2008.
[162]武拉平.国内外粮食市场相互影响的地区和品种差异分析[J].农业技术经济,2001(2)：55-60.
[163]武拉平.农产品地区差价和地区间价格波动规律研究——以小麦、玉米和生猪市场为例[J].农业经济问题,2000(10)：54-58.
[164]武拉平.我国小麦、玉米和生猪收购市场整合程度研究[J].中国农村观察,1999(4)：23-29
[165]颜加勇.国家储备粮保障体系建设研究[D].南京农业大学博士学位论文,2006.
[166]仰炬,王新奎,耿洪洲.我国粮食市场政府管制有效性：基于小麦的实证研究[J].经济研究,2008(8)：42-50.
[167]叶兴庆.改粮食保护价收购为直接补贴农民——我国农业保护政策的重大调整[J].中国农村经济,2002(7)：4-8.
[168]余贤.粮食市场与宏观调控——近期粮食问题研究评述[J]中国农村经济,1994(7)：3-7.
[169]喻闻、黄季焜.从大米市场整合程度看我国粮食市场改革[J].经济研究,1998(3)：50-57
[170]曾华,赵爽.关于我国货币政策传导机制的探讨[J].东北大学学报(社会科学版),2006v019(1)：27-30.
[171]张正,吕杰,姜楠.我国禽肉价格波动及影响因素分析[J].农业技术经济,2006(1)：76-78.
[172]张治华.价格对我国粮食生产影响的实证分析及政策建议[J].中国农村经济,1997(9)：11-18.
[173]赵勇,陈雨生,赵荣.中国玉米价格波动根源分析[J].中国物价,2009(2)：25-28
[174]郑毓盛,曾澎基,陈文鸿.中国农业生产在双轨制下的价格反应[J].经济研究,1993(3)：16-25.
[175]钟甫宁,周曙东.市场条件下保障粮食供应与稳定粮价的政策选择[J].农业经济问题,1993(11)：41-44.
[176]钟甫宁.稳定的政策和统一的市场对我国粮食安全的影响[J].中国农村经济,1995(7)：44-47.
[177]周力,周应恒.国际粮食市场的可依赖性研究[J].国际贸易问题,2010(7)：26-34.
[178]周应恒,邹林刚.中国大豆期货市场与国际大豆期货市场价格关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2007(1)：55-62.
[179]周章跃,万广华.论市场整合研究方法——兼评喻闻、黄季《从大米市场整合程度看我国粮食市场改革》一文[J].经济研究,1999(3)：73-79.
[180]朱晶,钟甫宁.市场整合、储备规模与粮食安全[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2004vo14(3)：19-23.
[181]朱晶.贸易、波动、可获性与粮食安全[D].南京农业大学博士学位论文,2000.
[2]Agriculture and Rural Development Department of World Bank, Managing Food Price Risks and Instability in an Environment of Market Liberalization.2006. World Bank, Washington, DC.
[3]Agriculture and Rural Development Department of World Bank, Managing Food Price Risks and Instability in an Environment of Market Liberalization.2006. World Bank, Washington, DC.
[4]Alexander H. Sarris, Has World Cereal Market Instability Increased?, Food Policy 25 (2000) Pages 337-350
[5]Asfaha, T.A. and Jooste, A.:The Effect of Monetary Changes on Relative Agricultural Prices, Agrekon,46(4),2007.
[6]Benjamin Senauer, A Protectionist Foodgrain Price Policy:The Case of Rice in Panama, Food Policy. Volume 10, Issue 4, November 1985,352-364
[8]BERGSON, A. A Reformulation of Certain Aspects of Welfare Economics [J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1938,52(2)
[9]Blume,L., D. Rubinfeld and P. Shapiro., "The Taking of Land:When Should Compensation Be Paid?", Quart. J. Econ.99(February),1984, Pages 71-92
[10]Booth, G. G., Brockman, P., and Tse, Y., "The Relationship Between US and Canadian Wheat Futures ", Applied Financial Economics,1998 (8).
[11]C Peter Timmer. Food Price Policy:The Rationale for Government Intervention. Food Policy, Volume 14, Issue 1, February 1989, Pages 17-27
[12]Chen Li-Hsueh,Finney M., Lai Kon S.. A Threshold Cointegration Analysis of Asymmetric Price Transmission From Crude Oil to Gasoline Prices. Economic Letters,2005(89):233-239
[13]Christopher B. Barrett on Price Risk and the Inverse Farm Size-productivity Relationship. Journal of Development Economics, Volume 51, Issue 2, December 1996, Pages 193-215
[14]Chung Ming Wong. Welfare Implications of Commodity Price Stabilization Under Export Restrictions. Journal of Development Economics, Volume 32, Issue 1, January 1990, Pages 93-112
[15]Claes Berg, Lars Jonung. Pioneering Price Level Targeting:The Swedish Experience 1931-1937. Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 43, Issue 3, June 1999, Pages 525-551
[16]Colin Poulton, Jonathan Kydd, Steve Wiggins, Andrew Dorward. State Intervention for Food Price Stabilisation in Africa:Can it Work?. Food Policy, Volume 31, Issue 4, August 2006, Pages 342-356
[17]Cramer, G. L., Wailes E. J. and Shui, S,1993. "Impacts of Liberalizing Trade in the World Rice Market", American Journal of Agriculture Econamics,75(1):219-226.
[18]Derek Byerlee, T.S. Jayne, Robert J. Myers. Managing Food Price Risks and Instability in a Liberalizing Market Environment:Overview and Policy Options. Food Policy, Volume 31, Issue 4, August 2006, Pages 275-287
[19]Donald Mitchell, A Note on Rising Food Prices, The World Bank,Development Prospects Group, JULY 2008, http://econ.worldbank.org
[20]Douglas J. M., Hayenga M. L. Price Cycle and Asymmetric Price Transmission in the U. S. Pork Market. American Journal of Agricultural Econamics,2001(3):551-562
[21]FAO, "Crop Prospects and Food Situation," February 2008
[22]FAO, "Growing Demand on Agriculture and Rising Prices of Commodities," February 2008.http://www.ifad.org/events/gc/31/roundtable/food.pdf
[23]Fischel, W., and P. Shapiro,1989. "A Constitutional Choice Model of Compensation for Taking", Reviews of Law and Econ, (9):115-128.
[24]Frank Ellis, Piyadasa Senanayake, Marisol Smith. Food price policy in Sri Lanka. Food Policy, Volume 22, Issue 1, February 1997, Pages 81-96
[25]Gardner, B., "The Farm-Retail Price Spread in a Competitive Food Industry", American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1975,57 (3),399-409.
[26]Gong, W.;Parton, K.;Cox, R.J.and Zhou, Z.:Transaction Costs and Cattle Farmers'Choice of Marketing Channels in China:A Tobit Analysis, Management Research News, Vol.30,2007.
[27]Gonzalez-Rivera. G., Helfand. S. M., The Extern, Pattern, and Degree of Market Integration:A Multivariate Approach for the Brazillian Rice Market, American Journal of Agricultural Econamics,2001 Vol.83:576-592
[28]IFPRI, von Braun, J. "The World Food Situation:New Driving Forces and Required Actions," IFPRI, December 2007. http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/fpr/pr18.pdf
[29]Joachim von Braun, "The World Food Situation, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C., December 2007
[30]Johnson, Gale and Song, Guoqing:Inflation and the Real Price of Grain, Food Security and Economic Reform, McMillan Press,1999.
[31]Johnson, M.B.,1977. "Planning Without Prices:A Discussion of Land Use Regulation Without Compensation. Planning Without Prices." B. Siegan, ed. Lexington MA, Lexington Books.
[32]Lana Halla and Turner Price, Price Policies and the SAM:A wheat-maize Comparison, Food Policy, Volume 7, Issue 4, November 1982, Pages:302-314
[33]Lin, Yifu; Song, Guoqing et al.:China's Grain Marketing and Price Volatility, an Unpublished Report Submitted to World Bank,1997.
[34]McCorriston, S., C.Morgan, and A.Rayner, "Processing Technology,Market Structure and Price Transmission", Journal of Agricultural Economics,1998,49,185-201.
[35]Orden, David and Fackler, Paul L.:Identifying Monetary Impacts on Agricultural Prices in VAR Models, American Agricultural Economics Association,71(2),1989.
[36]Otsuka K. and Hayami Y,1985. "Goals and Consequences of Rice Policy in Japan,1965-80", American Journal of Agricultural Economics,67(3):529-538.
[37]R.F. Engle, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation, Econometrica 50 (1982) Pages 987-1007
[38]Renan ZHUANG&Philip ABBOTT, Price Elasticities of Key Agricultural Commodities in China, China Economic Review,2007(18) Pages 155-169
[39]Richard Just, Ernst Lutz, Andrew Schmitz, Stephen Turnovsky. The Distribution of Welfare Gains from Price Stabilization:An International Perspective. Journal of International Economics, Volume 8, Issue 4, November 1978, Pages 551-563
[40]Ronald Trostle,2008 Global Agricultural Supply and Demand:Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices.
[41]Saghaian, Sayed H.; Reed, Michael R.; Marchant, Mary A.:Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in an Open Economy, American Journal of Agricultural Economics,84(1), 2002.
[42]SAH.R, J.STIGLIT. The Economics ofPrice Scissors[J]. The American Economic Review,1984, 74(1)
[43]Shahidur Rashid 2007, Food Price Stabilization Policies in a Globalizing World, Food Policy for Developing Countries:the Role of Government in the Global Food System,2007, Cornell University, New York.
[44]Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, Martin Uribe, Price level Determinacy and Monetary Policy under a Balanced-budget Requirement. Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 45, Issue 1, February 2000, Pages 211-246
[45]T. Bollerslev, Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity, Journal of Econometrics 31 (1986)Pages 307-327
[46]Thomas C. Pinckney. Is Market Liberalization Compatible with Food Security?:Storage, Trade and Price Policies for Maize in Southern Africa. Food Policy, Volume 18, Issue 4, August 1993, Pages 325-333
[47]U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), "Agricultural Projections to 2017," 2008a. February. http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/OCE081/OCE20081.pdf
[48]Ulrich A. and W.H. Furtan and Andrew Schmitz.,1987. "The Cost of a Licensing System Regulation:An Example from Canadian Praire Agriculture", Journal of Political Economy (95):160-178.
[49]USDA, "Grain:World Markets and Trade," October 2007
[50]USDA,2008. "Grain:World Markets and Trade," March 2008
[51]Weldegebriel, H., "Imperfect Price Transmission:Is market Power Really to Blame? " Journal of Agricultural Economics,2004,55 (1),101-114.
[52]卜轶彪.中国小麦市场流通的变化与趋势[D].中国农业科学院硕士学位论文,2004
[53]蔡荣.农产品市场价格形成机制理论与实证分析[D].华中农业大学博士学位论文,2008.
[54]陈艳飞.从粮价上涨看控制CPI的艰巨性——粮食价格上涨对CPI影响实证分析[J].中国统计,2008(11)：33-35.
[55]程国强,徐雪高.改革开放以来我国农产品价格波动的回顾[J].改革开放以来我国农产品价格波动的回顾,2009 vo123(4)：1-3.
[56]程国强.粮价异常波动亟须综合调控[J]中国发展观察,2010(6)：5-6.
[57]程杰,武拉平.我国主要粮食作物生产波动周期研究：1949-2006年[J].农业技术经济,2007(5)：80-87.
[58]程瑞芳.我国农产品价格形成机制及波动效应分析[J].中国流通经济,2007(3)：22-24.
[59]程漱兰.论粮食流通体制改革的政府动力机制[J].经济研究,1997(8)：56-66.
[60]戴春芳,贺小斌,冷崇总.改革开放以来我国粮食价格波动分析[J].价格月刊,2008(6)：5-12.
[61]丁声俊.论国家粮食储备和粮食价格[J].粮食科技与经济,2008(3)：9-13.
[62]丁守海.国际粮价波动对我国粮价的影响分析[J].经济科学,2009(2)：60-71.
[63]丁文斌.我国玉米期货价格影响因素与波动特征分析[D].华中农业大学博士学位论文,2009.
[64]董国新.我国粮食供求区域均衡状况及其变化趋势研究——基于粮食生产者和消费者行为分析[D].浙江大学博士学位论文,2007.
[65]董进.宏观经济波动周期的测度[J].经济研究,2006(7)：41-48.
[66]董克伟.外资参与竞争性收购影响粮价波动[N].中国改革报,2010年7月26日第002版.
[67]董玲.我国猪肉价格波动研究[D].内蒙古农业大学博士学位论文,2010.
[68]董全海.农产品价格与产量波动趋势之供求分析一兼与陈志国、李惠茹二同志商榷[J].经济研 究,1996(6)：54-61.
[69]董晓霞,许世卫,李哲敏,李干琼.完全竞争条件下的中国生鲜农产品市场价格传导——以西红柿为例.[J].中国农村经济,2011(2)：22-32
[70]董晓霞,许世卫,李哲敏,李干琼.中国肉鸡养殖业的价格传导机制研究——基于FDL模型的实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2011(3)：21-30
[71]杜为长,科尔曼.中国农作物播种面积对价格变化反应的实证分析[J].中国农村观察,1997(2)：33-38.
[72]方鸿.中国粮食最低收购价合理确定机制研究[J].经济与管理,2009(4)：20-25.
[73]方湖柳.人民币升值对农产品价格的影响[J].农业经济问题,2009(7)：84-90.
[74]冯云.中国粮食价格波动的实证分析[J].价格月刊,2008(2)：41-44.
[75]傅晓,牛宝俊.国际农产品价格波动的特点、规律与趋势[J].中国农村经济,2009(5)：87-96.
[76]高小蒙,向宁.中国农业价格政策分析.杭州：浙江人民出版社,1992.
[77]高瑛.基于粮食安全保障的我国粮食产销利益协调机制研究[D].南京农业大学博士学位论文,2006.
[78]顾国达,方晨靓.农产品价格波动的国内传导路径及其非对称性研究[J].农业技术经济,2011(3)：12-20
[79]郭劲光.粮食价格波动对人口福利变动的影响评估[J]中国人口科学,2009(6)：49-58.
[80]郭劲光.政府救济政策制定的时序结构与制度安排：基于大宗粮食商品价格波动的视角[J].农业经济问题,2010(12)：25-29.
[81]郭忠兴.制度和政策因素对粮食供给的影响：以江苏为例[D].南京农业大学博士学位论文,1999.
[82]韩胜飞.市场整合研究方法与传达的信息[J].经济学(季刊),2007 vol6(4)：1359-1372.
[83]韩艳旗,王红玲.新形势下农资价格大幅上涨对“三农”的影响分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2008(6)：39-43.
[84]韩一军,赵玉田.粮食主销区市场放开后的效果、问题与政策建议——浙江、广东、海南三省粮食流通体制改革的调查报告[J].中国农村经济,2002(2)：55-61.
[85]何蒲明,黎东升,王雅鹏.储备粮运作与粮食价格变动关系的实证分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2010.vol31(4)：17-22.
[86]何蒲明,黎东升.基于粮食安全的粮食产量和价格波动实证研究[J].农业技术经济,2009(2)：85-92.
[87]胡冰川,徐枫,董晓霞.国际农产品价格波动因素分析——基于时间序列的经济计量模型[J].中国农村经济,2009(7)：86-97.
[88]胡锋.1990年以来的粮食价格水平波动研究[J].中国粮食经济,2008(5)：23-25.
[89]胡华平,李崇光.农产品垂直价格传递与纵向市场联结[J].农业经济问题,2010(1)：10-17
[90]胡雪梅.我国棉农棉花播种面积决策——基于价格变化视角的研究[D].南京农业大学博士学位论文,2008.
[91]华仁海,陈百助.国内、国际期货市场期货价格之间的关联研究[J].经济学(季刊),2004vo13(3)：727-742.
[92]黄季焜,Scott Rozelle,解玉平,张敏.从农产品价格保护程度和市场整合看入世对中国农业的影响[J].管理世界,2002(9)：84-94
[93]黄季焜,杨军,仇焕广,徐志刚.本轮粮食价格的大起大落：主要原因及未来走势[J].管理世界,2009(1)：72-78.
[94]冀名峰.国有粮食企业行为研究[D].中国农业大学博士学位论文,2003.
[95]姜楠,方天堃,聂凤英.开放经济体系下汇率变动对农产品价格的影响[J]农业技术经济,2006(5)：50-53.
[96]蒋乃华.价格因素对我国粮食生产影响的实证分析[J1.中国农村观察,1998(5)：14-20.
[97]蒋乃华.我国粮食市场价格波动的成因及其稳定对策[J].农业经济,1999(8)：10-12.
[98]蒋乃华.中国粮食生产与价格波动研究[D].南京农业大学博士学位论文,1998.
[99]金和辉.计划、市场和中国农民的粮食供给行为[J].经济研究,1990(9)：62-69.
[100]敬艳辉.我国市场粮价波动影响因素的实证研究[D].西南财经大学硕士学位论文,2007.
[101]柯柄生.我国粮食市场上的价格信号问题[J].中国农村经济,1991(6)：23-27.
[102]柯柄生.再论我国粮食市场上的价格问题[J].中国农村经济,1992(6)：19-25.
[103]柯炳生.中国粮食市场与政策[M].北京：中国农业出版社,1995
[104]雷钦礼.中国粮食生产的价格作用机制分析[J].统计研究,2005(3)：24-28.
[105]冷崇总.我国粮食价格波动问题研究[J].价格与市场,2008(7)：22-28.
[106]李国祥.2003年以来中国农产品价格上涨分析[J].中国农村经济,2011(2)：11-20
[107]李晖.粮食价格波动与政府调控[J]农村经济,2004(11)：39-40.
[108]李敬辉,范志勇.利率调整和通货膨胀预期对大宗商品价格波动的影响——基于中国市场粮价和通货膨胀关系的经验研究[J].经济研究,2005(6)：61-68.
[109]李琴,孙良媛.棉花价格、进口及库存的互动关系[J].中国农村经济,2005(7)：71-77.
[110]李圣君,李素芳,孔祥智.农业产业链条价格传递机制的实证分析[J].技术经济,2010vo129(1)：108-122
[111]李伟克,马晓河.中国农产品价格季节变动的分析[J].中国农村观察,1998(2)：26-31.
[112]李文,李兴平,汪三贵.农产品价格变化对贫困地区农户收入的影响[J].中国农村经济,2003(12)：18-21.
[113]李先德,王士海.国际粮食市场波动对中国的影响及政策思考[J]农业经济问题,2009(9)：9-15.
[114]刘刚.外资进入我国粮食流通领域产生的影响及应对措施[J].中国外资,2008(11)：44-45.
[115]刘家富,李秉龙,李孝忠.基于VAR模型的国产大豆和豆油市场价格传导研究[J].农业技术经济,2010(8)：33-38.
[116]刘喜明.国际粮食价格波动对中国经济的影响[D].浙江大学博士学位论文,2009.
[117]刘晓雪,李书友.中国粮食市场60年发展历程与变迁特点[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版),2010 vo125(2)：1-5.
[118]刘颖.市场化形势下我国粮食流通体制改革研究[D].华中农业大学博士学位论文,2006.
[119]卢波.中央储备粮管理机制研究[D]新疆农业大学博士学位论文,2006.
[120]卢锋,彭凯翔.我国长期米价研究(1644-2000)[J].经济学(季刊),2005 voM(2)：427-459.
[121]卢锋,彭凯翔.中国粮价与通货膨胀关系(1987-1999)[J].经济学(季刊),2007 voll(4)：821-833.
[122]卢锋,谢亚.我国粮食供求与价格走势(1980-2007)——粮价波动、宏观稳定及粮食安全问题探讨[J].管理世界,2008(3)：70-80.
[123]陆文聪,西爱琴.农户农业生产的风险反应：以浙江为例的MOTAD模型分析[J].中国农村经济,2005(12)：68-75.
[124]吕东辉,杨印生,吕洪建.投机力量主导下的粮价波动：来自期货市场的实证研究[J].农业技术经济,2009(2)：92-95.
[125]罗锋,牛宝俊.国际农产品价格波动对国内农产品价格的传递效应——基于VAR模型的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2009(6)：16-22.
[126]罗锋,牛宝俊.国际农产品价格波动对国内农产品价格的传递效应——基于VAR模型的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2009(6)：16-22.
[127]罗万纯,刘锐.中国粮食价格波动分析：基于ARCH类模型[J].中国农村经济,2010(4)：30-37.
[128]罗孝玲.基于粮食价格的我国粮食安全问题研究[D].中南大学博士学位论文,2005.
[129]马九杰,张传宗.中国粮食储备规模模拟优化与政策分析[J].管理世界,2002(9)：95-105,113.
[130]马文杰.我国粮食综合生产能力研究[D].华中农业大学博士学位论文,2006.
[131]马晓河.当前农产品价格上涨成因分析与走势利断[J].中国物价,2008(4)：3-6.
[132]梅燕.中国粮食供求区域均衡变化研究——模型构建与模拟分析[D].浙江大学,2008.
[133]苗齐,钟甫宁.我国粮食储备规模的变动及其对供应和价格的影响[J].农业经济问题,2006(11)：9-14.
[134]祁民.国际视野下的农产品价格风险管理研究[D].华东师范大学博士学位论文,2008.
[135]邵鲁.我国粮食供求、价格波动与安全问题的实证分析[D].吉林大学博士学位论文,2009.
[136]石敏俊,王妍,朱杏珍.能源价格波动与粮食价格波动对城乡经济关系的影响——基于城乡投入产出模型[J].中国农村经济,2009(5)：4-13.
[137]司伟,王秀清.中国糖料的供给反应[J].中国农村观察2006(4)
[138]宋一君.库存变化与粮食价格波动关系研究[D].南京农业大学硕士学位论文,2009年6月.
[139]孙杭生,顾焕章.我国粮食收购保护价政策及定价机制研究[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2002vol2(1)：11-17.
[140]孙希芳,牟春胜.通货膨胀_真实利率与农户粮食库存1980_2003年中国农户存粮行为的实证分析[J].中国农村观察,2004(6)：23-33.
[141]谭砚文.中国棉花生产波动研究[D].华中农业大学博士学位论文,2004.
[142]陶昌盛.中国粮食定价机制研究[D].复旦大学博士学位论文,2004.
[143]田彩云,郭心义.我国玉米期货市场发现价格功能的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2006(6)：52-57,71.
[144]万广华,周章跃,陈良彪.我国水稻市场整合程度研究[J].中国农村经济,1997(8)：45-51.
[145]万广华,周章跃,陈良彪.我国水稻市场整合程度研究[J].中国农村经济,1997(8)：45-51.
[146]王德文,黄季焜.双轨制度下中国农户粮食供给反应分析[J].经济研究,2001(12)：55-65.
[147]王德文.中国粮食双轨制度的政治经济学分析[D].南京农业大学博士学位论文,2000.
[148]王芳,陈俊安.中国养猪业价格波动的传导机制分析[J].中国农村经济,2009(7)：31-41.
[149]王济明.我国的大豆经济：供给与需求的重点分析[D].中国农业科学院博士学位论文,2000.
[150]王健.我国粮食流通体制改革中的期货市场利用问题研究[D].浙江大学博士学位论文,2004.
[151]王莉.农户粮食种植面积与粮价的相关性研究——基于全国农村固定观察点的农户调查数据[J].农业技术经济,2010(9)：90-96.
[152]王龙飞,吕嘉林.中国粮食进出口对粮食价格影响实证研究[J].改革与开放,2009(11)：76-77.
[153]王宁,司伟,王秀清.我国北方小麦收购市场与面粉零售市场的整合研究[J].农业经济问题,2008(6)：33-37.
[154]王文斌,戴金平.国际粮食价格与其产量、消费和库存——基于时间序列的实证研究：1980-2007年[J].国际贸易问题,2009(5)：35-40.
[155]王秀清,钱小平.1981-2000年中国农产品价格上涨的波及效应[J].中国农村经济,2004(2)：12-16.
[156]王艺明.外部金融冲击下的稳定政策与农产品价格[J].厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2009(12)：88-93.
[157]王志彬.中国粮价波动及稳定机制研究[D].华中科技大学博士学位论文,2007.
[158]卫龙宝,许伟良.开放市场条件下粮食生产者价格风险的管理手段与选择[J].农业经济问题,2003(2)：67-71.
[159]温厉,温铁军.中国粮食供给周期与价格比较分析[J].管理世界,1997(4)：169-176.
[160]温厉,温铁军.中国粮食供给周期与价格比较分析[J].中国农村观察,1997(5)：40-44.
[161]吴强.贸易自由化下的中国农产品贸易政策变动之影响分析[D].南京农业大学博士学位论文,2008.
[162]武拉平.国内外粮食市场相互影响的地区和品种差异分析[J].农业技术经济,2001(2)：55-60.
[163]武拉平.农产品地区差价和地区间价格波动规律研究——以小麦、玉米和生猪市场为例[J].农业经济问题,2000(10)：54-58.
[164]武拉平.我国小麦、玉米和生猪收购市场整合程度研究[J].中国农村观察,1999(4)：23-29
[165]颜加勇.国家储备粮保障体系建设研究[D].南京农业大学博士学位论文,2006.
[166]仰炬,王新奎,耿洪洲.我国粮食市场政府管制有效性：基于小麦的实证研究[J].经济研究,2008(8)：42-50.
[167]叶兴庆.改粮食保护价收购为直接补贴农民——我国农业保护政策的重大调整[J].中国农村经济,2002(7)：4-8.
[168]余贤.粮食市场与宏观调控——近期粮食问题研究评述[J]中国农村经济,1994(7)：3-7.
[169]喻闻、黄季焜.从大米市场整合程度看我国粮食市场改革[J].经济研究,1998(3)：50-57
[170]曾华,赵爽.关于我国货币政策传导机制的探讨[J].东北大学学报(社会科学版),2006v019(1)：27-30.
[171]张正,吕杰,姜楠.我国禽肉价格波动及影响因素分析[J].农业技术经济,2006(1)：76-78.
[172]张治华.价格对我国粮食生产影响的实证分析及政策建议[J].中国农村经济,1997(9)：11-18.
[173]赵勇,陈雨生,赵荣.中国玉米价格波动根源分析[J].中国物价,2009(2)：25-28
[174]郑毓盛,曾澎基,陈文鸿.中国农业生产在双轨制下的价格反应[J].经济研究,1993(3)：16-25.
[175]钟甫宁,周曙东.市场条件下保障粮食供应与稳定粮价的政策选择[J].农业经济问题,1993(11)：41-44.
[176]钟甫宁.稳定的政策和统一的市场对我国粮食安全的影响[J].中国农村经济,1995(7)：44-47.
[177]周力,周应恒.国际粮食市场的可依赖性研究[J].国际贸易问题,2010(7)：26-34.
[178]周应恒,邹林刚.中国大豆期货市场与国际大豆期货市场价格关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2007(1)：55-62.
[179]周章跃,万广华.论市场整合研究方法——兼评喻闻、黄季《从大米市场整合程度看我国粮食市场改革》一文[J].经济研究,1999(3)：73-79.
[180]朱晶,钟甫宁.市场整合、储备规模与粮食安全[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2004vo14(3)：19-23.
[181]朱晶.贸易、波动、可获性与粮食安全[D].南京农业大学博士学位论文,2000.