东北地区水稻生产潜力及发展战略研究
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摘要
我国粮食增产潜力与供求趋势,一直是国内外关注的重点问题。经济持续高速增长和人口增加,使得粮食需求的刚性增长与耕地面积减少并存,粮食供求平衡的压力持续加大。粮食增产潜力及其转化,直接关系到我国粮食供求平衡能力和国家粮食安全。东北地区是我国水稻的重要生产和商品粮基地,具有稳定的商品粮供给能力,在国家粮食安全中有着举足轻重的地位。本论文以东北地区水稻为研究对象,分析了东北水稻生产发展的现状、水稻生产潜力及开发的技术途径,并对东北水稻竞争力、产业经济及其发展战略进行了探讨,提出了东北水稻生产可持续发展的技术体系和战略对策。研究所取得的主要结论有以下几点:
1、对建国后到2007年共59年的东北地区水稻生产发展状况、生产特点、水稻类型及分布和水稻生产发展态势进行了全面系统地分析,进一步明确了东北地区水稻生产在全国粮食生产中的战略地位,通过分析东北地区水稻的生产自然条件好、稻米品质优、产量持续增长、商品率高等优势,明确了东北地区是我国水稻的重要生产基地,也论证了挖掘东北地区水稻生产潜力是实现我国水稻生产可持续发展的重要基础。
2、运用1949—2007年东北水稻面积、单产和产量数据,长期波动趋势线和短期波动趋势线,结果表明水稻产量提高的可能性较大;平均波峰值小于波谷值,表明促进东北水稻持续、稳定增产难,而减产则较为容易;单产提高或下降的幅度极大,带来相应年份产量波动的幅度加大,表明东北水稻受某些特殊条件的影响程度大,在实际生产中必须重视这些极端因素的影响。
3、应用FAO的生态区域法研究了东北地区水稻生产潜力,特别对光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力的开发程度进行了系统评测;光温生产潜力反映了最高投入水平下特定作物在一个地区的灌溉农田可能达到的产量上限,可以看出东北地区水稻的光温生产潜力理论值在14135.13—15978.05公斤/公顷,平均值为15321公斤/公顷;气候生产潜力反映了现阶段某地区水稻最大的生产能力,具有很大的现实生产价值,东北地区水稻的气候生产潜力理论值在7655.76—14792.46公斤/公顷,平均值为11890.55公斤/公顷;黑龙江省水稻光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力的理论值均最大、吉林均最小、辽宁均居中;根据水稻生产开发难度系数,提出了相应的开发与增进技术途径和措施。
4、分析了气象、水资源、耕地资源、经济条件和种植效益,比较准确地测算了我国东北地区水稻生产的比较优势和竞争优势,分析了东北水稻增产潜力的主要影响因素,评价了各种因素的影响程度。在全球气候变暖的大背景下,极端性天气发生频率会更高,气象灾害对农作物生产的影响会更大,尤其旱、涝灾害发生将更频繁。
5、通过对东北水稻的比较优势、竞争力及产业经济进行系统分析,结果表明东北水稻具有较强的比较优势。同时由于需求量大,市场前景广阔,东北水稻具有较强的优势和市场竞争潜力。东北地区水稻生产必须转变增长方式,稳定面积,降低单产波动幅度,最终实现稳定发展。从发展趋势看,开垦湿地、扩张稻田已没有可能性,挖掘现有耕地生产能力,改造中低产田是东北地区土地资源可持续利用的主要发展方向。
6、针对目前东北地区水稻生产的现状以及存在的问题,构建了东北水稻可持续发展的技术支撑体系及政策支撑体系。提出了以培育及推广优质高产新品种为核心,科学的耕作栽培技术为关键的水稻可持续发展的技术支撑体系;研究提出了东北水稻可持续发展的社会、环境、技术以及生产和贸易保护的政策建议。
The grain production potential and the balance trend between demand and supply of China have already become hot issues. Economic development and population growth causes the coexistence of grain demand growth and reduction of the cultivated area, and difficulty in balance in demand and supply. Grain production potential and its transfer mean a lot to the balance between demand and supply and the national food security. The Northeast area was the grain main production area, and is also important rice production base which has stable commodity grain supplies ability, compared with the complete food production system. The Northeast area has the pivotal status in the national grain supplies. Therefore, this paper took the Northeast area rice production development as the object, and analyzed the present situation of Northeast rice production development, the rice productive potential and the technical development approach, meanwhile, carried on the discussion on the Northeast rice competitive power and the industrial economy and the developmental strategy, proposed the technical system and the strategic measures for the sustainable development of Northeast rice production.
Primary conclusions include following aspects:
1. Investigate rice production development condition, production characteristics, rice distribution and rice production development in Northeast area from 1949 to 2007. Then obtain the rice production in Northeast area to recognize the important strategic positions in the national food production, simultaneously discover that the rice productive potential in Northeast area is the base to produce the sustainable development.
2. Rice yield potential was large based on rice growed area, single yield datas, long term and short term fluctuation trendline from 1949 to 2007. It was difficult to improve rice yield sustainably and stably and it was easy to decrease rice yield. Some especial factors could affect rice yield remarkably in northeast China. We must pay attention to these extreme factors in rice yield.
3. Conduct the research using the FAO ecology region method to analyze rice productive potential in Northeast area. Specially carry on the system evaluation to the development degree of light warm productive potential and the climate productive potential development, put forward the corresponding technical ways and measures according to the coefficient of rice production development difficulty.
4. Through meteorology, water resources, cultivated land resources, current economic condition, planter benefit comparisons, survey the rice production in Northeast area to accurate the comparison superiority and the competitive advantage. Analyze the major effect factors in rice production in Northeast area which increase the potential and then appraise the influence of each kind of factors.
5. Through the rice's comparison superiority, the competitive power and the industrial economy in Northeast area, indicate that the rice in Northeast area has strong comparison superiority. Simultaneously considering the sufficient demand and the broad market, it has strong superiority and market competition potential.
6. In view of the present situation of rice production in Northeast area as well as the existed question, construct the rice sustainable development technical support system and the policy support system. Construct the promoted good quality and high output new variety, scientific cultivation cultural technique for rice sustainable development technical support system. Simultaneously propose policy recommendations on the society, environment, technical as well as the trade protection for the rice sustainable development.
1、对建国后到2007年共59年的东北地区水稻生产发展状况、生产特点、水稻类型及分布和水稻生产发展态势进行了全面系统地分析,进一步明确了东北地区水稻生产在全国粮食生产中的战略地位,通过分析东北地区水稻的生产自然条件好、稻米品质优、产量持续增长、商品率高等优势,明确了东北地区是我国水稻的重要生产基地,也论证了挖掘东北地区水稻生产潜力是实现我国水稻生产可持续发展的重要基础。
2、运用1949—2007年东北水稻面积、单产和产量数据,长期波动趋势线和短期波动趋势线,结果表明水稻产量提高的可能性较大;平均波峰值小于波谷值,表明促进东北水稻持续、稳定增产难,而减产则较为容易;单产提高或下降的幅度极大,带来相应年份产量波动的幅度加大,表明东北水稻受某些特殊条件的影响程度大,在实际生产中必须重视这些极端因素的影响。
3、应用FAO的生态区域法研究了东北地区水稻生产潜力,特别对光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力的开发程度进行了系统评测;光温生产潜力反映了最高投入水平下特定作物在一个地区的灌溉农田可能达到的产量上限,可以看出东北地区水稻的光温生产潜力理论值在14135.13—15978.05公斤/公顷,平均值为15321公斤/公顷;气候生产潜力反映了现阶段某地区水稻最大的生产能力,具有很大的现实生产价值,东北地区水稻的气候生产潜力理论值在7655.76—14792.46公斤/公顷,平均值为11890.55公斤/公顷;黑龙江省水稻光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力的理论值均最大、吉林均最小、辽宁均居中;根据水稻生产开发难度系数,提出了相应的开发与增进技术途径和措施。
4、分析了气象、水资源、耕地资源、经济条件和种植效益,比较准确地测算了我国东北地区水稻生产的比较优势和竞争优势,分析了东北水稻增产潜力的主要影响因素,评价了各种因素的影响程度。在全球气候变暖的大背景下,极端性天气发生频率会更高,气象灾害对农作物生产的影响会更大,尤其旱、涝灾害发生将更频繁。
5、通过对东北水稻的比较优势、竞争力及产业经济进行系统分析,结果表明东北水稻具有较强的比较优势。同时由于需求量大,市场前景广阔,东北水稻具有较强的优势和市场竞争潜力。东北地区水稻生产必须转变增长方式,稳定面积,降低单产波动幅度,最终实现稳定发展。从发展趋势看,开垦湿地、扩张稻田已没有可能性,挖掘现有耕地生产能力,改造中低产田是东北地区土地资源可持续利用的主要发展方向。
6、针对目前东北地区水稻生产的现状以及存在的问题,构建了东北水稻可持续发展的技术支撑体系及政策支撑体系。提出了以培育及推广优质高产新品种为核心,科学的耕作栽培技术为关键的水稻可持续发展的技术支撑体系;研究提出了东北水稻可持续发展的社会、环境、技术以及生产和贸易保护的政策建议。
The grain production potential and the balance trend between demand and supply of China have already become hot issues. Economic development and population growth causes the coexistence of grain demand growth and reduction of the cultivated area, and difficulty in balance in demand and supply. Grain production potential and its transfer mean a lot to the balance between demand and supply and the national food security. The Northeast area was the grain main production area, and is also important rice production base which has stable commodity grain supplies ability, compared with the complete food production system. The Northeast area has the pivotal status in the national grain supplies. Therefore, this paper took the Northeast area rice production development as the object, and analyzed the present situation of Northeast rice production development, the rice productive potential and the technical development approach, meanwhile, carried on the discussion on the Northeast rice competitive power and the industrial economy and the developmental strategy, proposed the technical system and the strategic measures for the sustainable development of Northeast rice production.
Primary conclusions include following aspects:
1. Investigate rice production development condition, production characteristics, rice distribution and rice production development in Northeast area from 1949 to 2007. Then obtain the rice production in Northeast area to recognize the important strategic positions in the national food production, simultaneously discover that the rice productive potential in Northeast area is the base to produce the sustainable development.
2. Rice yield potential was large based on rice growed area, single yield datas, long term and short term fluctuation trendline from 1949 to 2007. It was difficult to improve rice yield sustainably and stably and it was easy to decrease rice yield. Some especial factors could affect rice yield remarkably in northeast China. We must pay attention to these extreme factors in rice yield.
3. Conduct the research using the FAO ecology region method to analyze rice productive potential in Northeast area. Specially carry on the system evaluation to the development degree of light warm productive potential and the climate productive potential development, put forward the corresponding technical ways and measures according to the coefficient of rice production development difficulty.
4. Through meteorology, water resources, cultivated land resources, current economic condition, planter benefit comparisons, survey the rice production in Northeast area to accurate the comparison superiority and the competitive advantage. Analyze the major effect factors in rice production in Northeast area which increase the potential and then appraise the influence of each kind of factors.
5. Through the rice's comparison superiority, the competitive power and the industrial economy in Northeast area, indicate that the rice in Northeast area has strong comparison superiority. Simultaneously considering the sufficient demand and the broad market, it has strong superiority and market competition potential.
6. In view of the present situation of rice production in Northeast area as well as the existed question, construct the rice sustainable development technical support system and the policy support system. Construct the promoted good quality and high output new variety, scientific cultivation cultural technique for rice sustainable development technical support system. Simultaneously propose policy recommendations on the society, environment, technical as well as the trade protection for the rice sustainable development.
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