粮食安全长效机制的构建与实证研究
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摘要
中国自古就有“民以食为天,食以粮为先”之说,“仓禀实,天下定”,“手中有粮,心中不慌”。鉴于粮食在我们这样一个13亿人口大国中的特殊战略地位,选择自给为主的粮食安全战略是由国情所决定,也是我国的既定方针。长期以来,尤其是改革开放以来,我国一直致力于这一目标的实现。尽管我国曾数次出现“卖粮难”现象,但都是市场不畅或制度缺陷引发的期间性过剩表象,并非根本上实现了粮食生产的充裕。然而正是这种时发性的粮食过剩表象,从而为我国东南沿海地区以工业化、城镇化快速推进为核心的现代化进程提供了天时机遇和有力保障,也从而彻底改变了我国历史上固有的“南粮北调”的粮食生产大格局。“鱼米之乡”之美誉已难再名副其实,“江浙熟,天下足”、“苏湖熟,天下足”、“湖广熟,天下足”等民谣说辞也不再有闻。到了上世纪末,我国再次出现粮食过剩现象,与以往不同的是,此次粮食的过剩,还伴随着诸多大宗农产品的全面过剩,导致以粮食为主的农产品价格大幅下滑。中央据此做出了我国农业已告别短缺时代,进入了一个新的发展阶段的重大判断,并提出了对农业结构实施战略性调整的重大决策。也正是此时,我国中西部尤其中部地区开始进入工业化、城镇化和农业现代化的快速推进时期。
然而进入新世纪后,全国粮食面积出现急剧下降趋势,加之自然灾害影响,到了2003年,我国粮食产量出现了大幅下降,并由此引发了全面通胀的发生。粮食安全问题再次成为中央乃至全社会关注的焦点和热点。之后年份,中央开始连续出台一系列高含金量的刺激粮食生产的优惠政策,使我国粮食生产得以快速回复和持续增长。也正是由于这种高瞻远瞩的举措,使得我国在近年来发生的世界粮食危机和世界金融危机中立于极为难得主动地位。然而问题是这一系列的政策,尤其是以基本农田制度为核心的土地新政的实施,使得中西部地区的现代化路径将不可能选择东部地区以牺牲农业尤其是粮食为代价的现代化道路。这不谓是一个崭新课题。
基于上述背景的分析,本文认为,长期以来,我国无论是学术界还是实践中的粮食安全政策,多是注重和围绕如何提高粮食产量、提高种粮农民收益等问题开展分析研究和政策制度的设计等。事实情况是,一方面现行的粮食安全政策对于增加农民收入,稳定粮食生产,确实起到了一定的积极作用。但这种作用是有限的,是不足以弥补粮食生产的机会成本的。另一方面,改革开放以来形成的我国新的粮食生产布局格局,使得粮食安全的主要职责落在了现有的粮食主产区。然而,与东部发达地区经济发展已经有着巨大差距的这些粮食主产省份(本文以河南省为例),正在进入工业化、城镇化和农业现代化快上推进的时期,既要推动整体经济社会的发展,又要肩负起国家粮食安全的重大责任和义务,也就是说我国进入新世纪后,粮食安全也处在了一个新的形势下和新的阶段时期,在国家粮食安全的战略目标约束下,这些粮食主产区的现代化道路将不允许选择牺牲农业的道路。然而,作为粮食主产区,选择粮食生产的同时,必将在资源的配置上发生巨大的机会成本。经调查和计算分析,农民收入水平的高低,以及所享受的社会福利水平,与所在地区的工业化、城镇化水平的差异有着极其密切的联系。当前大多粮食主产区经济社会发展水平普遍偏低的状况,已经成为我国粮食安全与粮食主产区发展工业化、城市化和推进农业现代化的矛盾和困惑,是我国粮食安全战略必须排除的隐患。因此在新的时期,新的阶段和新的形势下,必须从提高粮食生产能力和促进粮食主产区区域经济发展两个视角,构建起我国粮食安全的长效机制。
本文以河南省为例,从实证的角度,就上述观点进行了进一步分析和佐证。文.中分析到,作为我国主要粮食生产省份的河南,从上世纪末至今,粮食生产一直保持着持续稳定的增长,成为了我国第一产粮大省。迄今为止,粮食产量已连续12年居全国之首,并连创新高,为我国的粮食安全做出了突出贡献。文章通过对河南粮食生产持续增产现象的全面、深入剖析,一方面分析了河南在发展粮食生产上采取的“发展‘小麦经济’,拉长产业链条；集中打造核心产区,发挥规模集群效应；变
‘天下粮仓’为‘国人厨房’再到‘世界餐桌’,推动产业不断升级；创新科技体系,夯实科技支撑”等成功有效的经验做法。另一方面也从中发现了河南在发展粮食生产的同时积累和暴露出的一些突出矛盾和问题,集中的表现一是“贡献”、“待遇”不对称,经济发展水平与发达地区差距越来越大；二是省内产粮大县经济发展长期落后,已经成为全省经济发展的“洼地”；三是贫困这一尴尬现象的发生,粮食主产区竟然越来越成为贫困的主体,贫困人口开始了向粮食主产区的集中；四是经济落后的连锁反应导致的粮食主产区基础设施薄弱和生态环境恶化问题突出。
在从理论和实证两个方面分析了我国粮食安全政策的成效和突出缺陷与隐患之后,本文最后结合河南实际,提出了通过粮食核心区建设,从建立利益补偿调节机制、完善投入保障机制、健全服务保障机制和创新粮食生产经营机制四个方面构建我国粮食安全长效机制的设想和对策建议,使粮食主产区走出一条粮食生产活力得到充分释放,农民收入得到快速增长,工业化、城镇化、农业现代化与粮食安全互为“双赢”、协调一致的全新发展之路。
There were some old Chinese sayings as "food is the people's heaven, grain is the first food", "warehouse full, world stable", "If you have enough food, you can't be in panic." Since food had a special strategic significance in our country with 13 billion people, selecting self-based food security strategy was determined by our nation conditions and was determined policy. China had been committed to this goal for a long time, especially since the reform and opening up. Although there were selling-food-difficulty phenomena several times which were periodic and were caused by blocked market and defective institution, it didn't indicate china could get abundant grain production absolutely. However, it was this Intermittent food surplus that provided opportunity and guarantee for China's southeast coastal areas to rapidly advance modernization process with the center of industrialization and urbanization, and that completely changed the south-grain-was-transported-to-north-areas pattern of food production. So Country of fish and rice was not true and such proverbs as "Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province have harvest, the world is enough", "Jiangsu and Hubei Province have harvest, the world is enough", "Hubei and Guangdong province have harvest, the world is enough" couldn't be heard any more.. By the end of the last century, food surplus appearances had took on again in China but this time many main agricultural product were so excess as to lead to a grain-based agricultural prices have fallen sharply. Accordingly, the central government regarded that Chinese agriculture wasn't shortage of food any more and entered a new stage of development, so made major policy decisions with the strategic adjustment of agricultural structure. But at that time central and western China particularly the central had entered a rapidly advancing period of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization.
However, after entering the new century, the whole nation grain area dropped sharply. Moreover, adding the natural calamities affection, the grain yield of our country had appeared to come down by large margins and initiated inflation in 2003. Food security problem became the focal point and hot spot of central authority even the whole society once again. Afterwards, central authority adopted a series of the preferential measures to stimulate grain produces, making our country grain produce can recover rapidly and increase steadily. Due to this act, our country is in extremely rare initiative position in world grain crisis and world financial crisis in recent years. But, the series policies, especially the implementation of new land policies which is centering on basic farmland system, making the modernized route of central and western regions can't follow the way that eastern region taken, which is sacrifice the agriculture especially grain as price. This is a brand-new problem.
Based on analysis of above-mentioned background, the author believed that since long-term, food security policy in our country regardless of academically or practically, mostly attaches importance to analyzing problems such as how to improve grain yield, raise avails of grain peasant and so on. The fact is that, on one hand, the food security policy currently in effect have arrived at the certain positive role in increasing the peasants' income and stabilizing grain production. But, this effect is limited, not enough to make up the chance cost of grain produce. On the other hand, the new distribution pattern of our country grain production formed after the reform and openness, making main food security duties fall to the main grain producing area. But, the main grain producing province (this paper take Henan province as an example) which already has enormous gap of economic growth with east developed region, is entering the period of moving forward approximately on industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization, which need to both develop overall economy society and take up significant responsibilities and obligations of country food security. Just say that, after entering the new century, our country food security is in a new circumstances stage period. With country food security strategic objective constraint, the main grain producing area's modernization roads will not allow to sacrifice agriculture. However, as main grain producing area, when choosing grain produces, it surely will gigantic chance cost on the resource allocation. As a result of inquiring and calculating analysis, peasants' income and enjoyed public welfare level have extremely close connection with location area industrialization and urbanization level difference. The common low development level of main grain producing area's economic and society, has already became the contradiction and puzzle of our country food security and main grain producing area to develop industrialization, urbanization and push forward agricultural modernization. It is the hidden trouble that our country food security strategy must remove. Therefore, in the new period, new stage and new circumstances, we must construct the long-term mechanism of food security, from two visual angles both improving grain efficiency and promoting main grain producing area regional economies.
Taking Henan province for example, this paper made further analysis and certification. The paper believed that complied with an end of the century so far, Henan as a main grain producing province, it's grain produces being always keeping the sustained stable increase, and it had become the first grain producing provinces of our country. So far, its grain yield has be the highest of the whole nation for 12 years, and linked with innovative height, which making outstanding contribution for our country's food security. On one hand, by fully and deeply analyzed of the phenomenon that Henan grain producing increased continually, the article analyzed the effective and successful experiences adopted by Henan to develop grain production, such as, develop'wheat economy' to elongate estate chain; Make core producing area to bring the scale cluster effect into play; Change "barn" to "kitchen" and to "world dining-table", drive estate to escalate unceasingly; Innovative science and technology system and reinforce the scientific and technological support. On the other hand, we discovered a little of contradictions and problems accumulating and revealing out while Henan developing grain production. The first is that, "contribution" and "pay" are asymmetric, and the gap of economic development level compared with the developed region is more and more big; The second is that,economic growth of main grain production counties fall behind for long time, already became the "depression" of whole province economic growth; The third is that, main grain producing area has become actually the main body of poor, and impoverished people has started concentrating to main grain producing area; And the last one is that, the chain reaction that economy falls behind made the infrastructure construction and ecological environment of main grain producing area worsen.
After analyzed our country food security policy's effect and defect from two aspect of reasoning and demonstration, with Henan's condition, the paper at last suggested that by constructing grain core area, we could construct long-term mechanism of our country food security from four aspect, which were establishing financial compensation adjustment mechanism, improving the investment guarantee mechanism, improving the service assurance mechanisms and innovating food production and management system. In order to make main grain producing area find a brand-new way that grain production vigor could get sufficient released, the peasants' income could increase rapidly, and industrialization, urbanization, agricultural modernization could coordinat each other.
然而进入新世纪后,全国粮食面积出现急剧下降趋势,加之自然灾害影响,到了2003年,我国粮食产量出现了大幅下降,并由此引发了全面通胀的发生。粮食安全问题再次成为中央乃至全社会关注的焦点和热点。之后年份,中央开始连续出台一系列高含金量的刺激粮食生产的优惠政策,使我国粮食生产得以快速回复和持续增长。也正是由于这种高瞻远瞩的举措,使得我国在近年来发生的世界粮食危机和世界金融危机中立于极为难得主动地位。然而问题是这一系列的政策,尤其是以基本农田制度为核心的土地新政的实施,使得中西部地区的现代化路径将不可能选择东部地区以牺牲农业尤其是粮食为代价的现代化道路。这不谓是一个崭新课题。
基于上述背景的分析,本文认为,长期以来,我国无论是学术界还是实践中的粮食安全政策,多是注重和围绕如何提高粮食产量、提高种粮农民收益等问题开展分析研究和政策制度的设计等。事实情况是,一方面现行的粮食安全政策对于增加农民收入,稳定粮食生产,确实起到了一定的积极作用。但这种作用是有限的,是不足以弥补粮食生产的机会成本的。另一方面,改革开放以来形成的我国新的粮食生产布局格局,使得粮食安全的主要职责落在了现有的粮食主产区。然而,与东部发达地区经济发展已经有着巨大差距的这些粮食主产省份(本文以河南省为例),正在进入工业化、城镇化和农业现代化快上推进的时期,既要推动整体经济社会的发展,又要肩负起国家粮食安全的重大责任和义务,也就是说我国进入新世纪后,粮食安全也处在了一个新的形势下和新的阶段时期,在国家粮食安全的战略目标约束下,这些粮食主产区的现代化道路将不允许选择牺牲农业的道路。然而,作为粮食主产区,选择粮食生产的同时,必将在资源的配置上发生巨大的机会成本。经调查和计算分析,农民收入水平的高低,以及所享受的社会福利水平,与所在地区的工业化、城镇化水平的差异有着极其密切的联系。当前大多粮食主产区经济社会发展水平普遍偏低的状况,已经成为我国粮食安全与粮食主产区发展工业化、城市化和推进农业现代化的矛盾和困惑,是我国粮食安全战略必须排除的隐患。因此在新的时期,新的阶段和新的形势下,必须从提高粮食生产能力和促进粮食主产区区域经济发展两个视角,构建起我国粮食安全的长效机制。
本文以河南省为例,从实证的角度,就上述观点进行了进一步分析和佐证。文.中分析到,作为我国主要粮食生产省份的河南,从上世纪末至今,粮食生产一直保持着持续稳定的增长,成为了我国第一产粮大省。迄今为止,粮食产量已连续12年居全国之首,并连创新高,为我国的粮食安全做出了突出贡献。文章通过对河南粮食生产持续增产现象的全面、深入剖析,一方面分析了河南在发展粮食生产上采取的“发展‘小麦经济’,拉长产业链条；集中打造核心产区,发挥规模集群效应；变
‘天下粮仓’为‘国人厨房’再到‘世界餐桌’,推动产业不断升级；创新科技体系,夯实科技支撑”等成功有效的经验做法。另一方面也从中发现了河南在发展粮食生产的同时积累和暴露出的一些突出矛盾和问题,集中的表现一是“贡献”、“待遇”不对称,经济发展水平与发达地区差距越来越大；二是省内产粮大县经济发展长期落后,已经成为全省经济发展的“洼地”；三是贫困这一尴尬现象的发生,粮食主产区竟然越来越成为贫困的主体,贫困人口开始了向粮食主产区的集中；四是经济落后的连锁反应导致的粮食主产区基础设施薄弱和生态环境恶化问题突出。
在从理论和实证两个方面分析了我国粮食安全政策的成效和突出缺陷与隐患之后,本文最后结合河南实际,提出了通过粮食核心区建设,从建立利益补偿调节机制、完善投入保障机制、健全服务保障机制和创新粮食生产经营机制四个方面构建我国粮食安全长效机制的设想和对策建议,使粮食主产区走出一条粮食生产活力得到充分释放,农民收入得到快速增长,工业化、城镇化、农业现代化与粮食安全互为“双赢”、协调一致的全新发展之路。
There were some old Chinese sayings as "food is the people's heaven, grain is the first food", "warehouse full, world stable", "If you have enough food, you can't be in panic." Since food had a special strategic significance in our country with 13 billion people, selecting self-based food security strategy was determined by our nation conditions and was determined policy. China had been committed to this goal for a long time, especially since the reform and opening up. Although there were selling-food-difficulty phenomena several times which were periodic and were caused by blocked market and defective institution, it didn't indicate china could get abundant grain production absolutely. However, it was this Intermittent food surplus that provided opportunity and guarantee for China's southeast coastal areas to rapidly advance modernization process with the center of industrialization and urbanization, and that completely changed the south-grain-was-transported-to-north-areas pattern of food production. So Country of fish and rice was not true and such proverbs as "Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province have harvest, the world is enough", "Jiangsu and Hubei Province have harvest, the world is enough", "Hubei and Guangdong province have harvest, the world is enough" couldn't be heard any more.. By the end of the last century, food surplus appearances had took on again in China but this time many main agricultural product were so excess as to lead to a grain-based agricultural prices have fallen sharply. Accordingly, the central government regarded that Chinese agriculture wasn't shortage of food any more and entered a new stage of development, so made major policy decisions with the strategic adjustment of agricultural structure. But at that time central and western China particularly the central had entered a rapidly advancing period of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization.
However, after entering the new century, the whole nation grain area dropped sharply. Moreover, adding the natural calamities affection, the grain yield of our country had appeared to come down by large margins and initiated inflation in 2003. Food security problem became the focal point and hot spot of central authority even the whole society once again. Afterwards, central authority adopted a series of the preferential measures to stimulate grain produces, making our country grain produce can recover rapidly and increase steadily. Due to this act, our country is in extremely rare initiative position in world grain crisis and world financial crisis in recent years. But, the series policies, especially the implementation of new land policies which is centering on basic farmland system, making the modernized route of central and western regions can't follow the way that eastern region taken, which is sacrifice the agriculture especially grain as price. This is a brand-new problem.
Based on analysis of above-mentioned background, the author believed that since long-term, food security policy in our country regardless of academically or practically, mostly attaches importance to analyzing problems such as how to improve grain yield, raise avails of grain peasant and so on. The fact is that, on one hand, the food security policy currently in effect have arrived at the certain positive role in increasing the peasants' income and stabilizing grain production. But, this effect is limited, not enough to make up the chance cost of grain produce. On the other hand, the new distribution pattern of our country grain production formed after the reform and openness, making main food security duties fall to the main grain producing area. But, the main grain producing province (this paper take Henan province as an example) which already has enormous gap of economic growth with east developed region, is entering the period of moving forward approximately on industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization, which need to both develop overall economy society and take up significant responsibilities and obligations of country food security. Just say that, after entering the new century, our country food security is in a new circumstances stage period. With country food security strategic objective constraint, the main grain producing area's modernization roads will not allow to sacrifice agriculture. However, as main grain producing area, when choosing grain produces, it surely will gigantic chance cost on the resource allocation. As a result of inquiring and calculating analysis, peasants' income and enjoyed public welfare level have extremely close connection with location area industrialization and urbanization level difference. The common low development level of main grain producing area's economic and society, has already became the contradiction and puzzle of our country food security and main grain producing area to develop industrialization, urbanization and push forward agricultural modernization. It is the hidden trouble that our country food security strategy must remove. Therefore, in the new period, new stage and new circumstances, we must construct the long-term mechanism of food security, from two visual angles both improving grain efficiency and promoting main grain producing area regional economies.
Taking Henan province for example, this paper made further analysis and certification. The paper believed that complied with an end of the century so far, Henan as a main grain producing province, it's grain produces being always keeping the sustained stable increase, and it had become the first grain producing provinces of our country. So far, its grain yield has be the highest of the whole nation for 12 years, and linked with innovative height, which making outstanding contribution for our country's food security. On one hand, by fully and deeply analyzed of the phenomenon that Henan grain producing increased continually, the article analyzed the effective and successful experiences adopted by Henan to develop grain production, such as, develop'wheat economy' to elongate estate chain; Make core producing area to bring the scale cluster effect into play; Change "barn" to "kitchen" and to "world dining-table", drive estate to escalate unceasingly; Innovative science and technology system and reinforce the scientific and technological support. On the other hand, we discovered a little of contradictions and problems accumulating and revealing out while Henan developing grain production. The first is that, "contribution" and "pay" are asymmetric, and the gap of economic development level compared with the developed region is more and more big; The second is that,economic growth of main grain production counties fall behind for long time, already became the "depression" of whole province economic growth; The third is that, main grain producing area has become actually the main body of poor, and impoverished people has started concentrating to main grain producing area; And the last one is that, the chain reaction that economy falls behind made the infrastructure construction and ecological environment of main grain producing area worsen.
After analyzed our country food security policy's effect and defect from two aspect of reasoning and demonstration, with Henan's condition, the paper at last suggested that by constructing grain core area, we could construct long-term mechanism of our country food security from four aspect, which were establishing financial compensation adjustment mechanism, improving the investment guarantee mechanism, improving the service assurance mechanisms and innovating food production and management system. In order to make main grain producing area find a brand-new way that grain production vigor could get sufficient released, the peasants' income could increase rapidly, and industrialization, urbanization, agricultural modernization could coordinat each other.
引文
1 1991-1992连续两年粮食丰收后,政府曾对粮食流通市场化信心增强,1993年开始实行“保量放价”的收购政策(当时与农民签定了5000万吨的粮食交售合同,占当时社会商品粮的38%),在国家按市场价完成订购粮任务后,放开了粮食市场。国家要掌握更多的粮源(当时提出的目标是70%),则通过指导性计划,按议购价方式收购农民的粮食。当年第四季度,粮价出现暴涨局面,一直持续到96上半年。
2 田建民,《中国粮食经济》,1999.5,4—6页。
3 田建民,《地域研究与开发》2000.1,85—88页。
1 研究结果可参考①田建民,科技进步与小麦经济,《农业科技参考》,2003-7；②田建民,推进河南现代农业发展的认识与思考,《河南农业科学》2005-1)。
2 《中国农村统计年鉴》(2003)
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4.陈波,王雅鹏.粮食机会损失形成与补偿研究.华中科技大学学报(社会科学版)[J],2007(2),44-48
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7.邓大才.中国粮食生产的机会成本研究.经济评论[J],2005(6),45-51
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2 田建民,《中国粮食经济》,1999.5,4—6页。
3 田建民,《地域研究与开发》2000.1,85—88页。
1 研究结果可参考①田建民,科技进步与小麦经济,《农业科技参考》,2003-7；②田建民,推进河南现代农业发展的认识与思考,《河南农业科学》2005-1)。
2 《中国农村统计年鉴》(2003)
1.蔡建文.农道：解读中国粮食问题[M].沈阳：辽宁人民出版社,2005,384-397.
2.蔡派,中国粮食生产国内支持政策研究,华中农业大学博士学位论文,2007(6),15-22.
3.曹海珍.政府长期保障粮食安全的策略取向,厦门大学硕士学位论文,2006(10)：21-23.
4.陈波,王雅鹏.粮食机会损失形成与补偿研究.华中科技大学学报(社会科学版)[J],2007(2),44-48
5.陈波.中国粮食安全成本及其结构优化研究.[博士论文].武汉：华中农业大学图书馆,2007,79-85
6.崔亚平.日本粮食安全保障机制给我们的启示.农业经济[J],2007(12),80-81
7.邓大才.中国粮食生产的机会成本研究.经济评论[J],2005(6),45-51
8.邓大才：中国粮食生产的机会成本研究,经济评论,2005(6),78-88.
9.丁声俊,朱立志.世界粮食安全问题现状[J].中国农村经济,2003(3),71-80
10.丁声俊.世界粮食安全形势及其重大保障政策[J].齐鲁粮食,2003,(4)：4～10.
11.董运来,余建斌.印度粮食安全政策及其对我国的启示.南亚研究季刊[J],2009(1),45-50
12.高帆.中国粮食安全的测度：一个指标体系,经济理论与经济管理,2005(12),5-10
13.高帆.中国粮食安全的理论研究与实证分析[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2005,382-385
14.郭敏,屈艳芳.农户投资行为实证研究.经济研究[J],2002(6),26-29
15.郭造强,李霄汉,鲍宁智,等.河北粮食生产核心区建设的总体思路.中国农业资源与区划[J],2009,30(1),17-20
16.国家粮食局调控司.关于我国粮食安全问题的思考.宏观经济研究[J],2004(9),6-9
17.国家统计局安徽调查总队.扶持产量大县发展,确保粮食生产安全.调研世界[J],2007(7),11-12
18.韩俊：加大对净调出省区的扶持力度,中国经济时报,2009年06月10日第二版。
19.黄黎慧,黄群.我国粮食安全问题与对策.粮食与食品工业[J],2005(5),13-16
20.姜长云.关于我国粮食安全的若干思考.农业经济问题[J],2005(2),44—48
21.姜志德,常国庆,杨立社,等.确保中国粮食安全的科技发展战略与政策.中国农学通报[J],2004,20(6),355-357
22.焦世泰,王世金.粮食安全不同主体间的行为博弈分析.安徽农业科学[J],2007,35(18),5604-5606
23.焦世泰.粮食安全不同主体间的行为博弈分析,安徽农业科学,2007,35(18)：5604-5606.
24.金乐琴等.可持续发展战略实施中中央与地方政府的博弈分析,经济理论与经济管理2005 (12,34-38
25.雷玉桃.退耕还林与粮食安全协调机制浅析[J].农业现代化研究,2003(3),12-14
26.李仁元.粮食主产区肩负着我国粮食安全的重任.调研世界[J],2000(11),1-8
27.李玉平.河南省粮食生产与耕地变化的分析及预测.地域研究与开发[J],2007,26(3),95-103
28.林毅夫.再论制度、技术与中国农业发展[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2000,32-67
29.刘凌.基于AHP的粮食安全评价指标体系研究.生产力研究[J],2007(12),58-60
30.刘敏芳,席美丽.欧盟的粮食安全政策及对我国的启示.西北农业学报,2005,14(6)：205～208.
31.刘晓梅.关于我国粮食安全评价指标体系的探讨[J].财贸经济,2004,(9).
32.龙方.新世纪中国粮食安全问题研究[M].北京：中国经济出版社,2007,241-256
33.娄源功.中国粮食安全的宏观分析与比较研究[J].农场经济管理,2003(3),24-27
34.罗光强.中国粮食政策的粮食安全的经济学分析.工业技术经济[J],2006,25(11),108-110
35.马九杰,等.粮食安全衡量及预警指标体系研究[J].管理世界,2001,(1).
36.马晓河,蓝海涛.加入WTO后我国农业补贴政策研究.管理世界[J],2002(5),11-13
37.马有祥.树立科学发展观构筑我国粮食安全长效机制.中国农村经济[J],2004(10),15-19
38.倪斋晖.论农业产业化的理论基础.中国农村经济[J],1999(6),55-60
39.聂凤英.粮食安全与食品安全研究[M].北京：中国农业科学技术出版社,2006,202-203
40.钱忠好.中国农地保护：理论与政策分析.管理世界[J],2003(10),32-34
41.沈涛.世界粮食走势下的中国粮食安全对策.市场论坛[J],2009(1),1-2
42.帅传敏、刘松.中外粮食政策的比较与启示.农业经济,2005(9),26-27.
43.宋承国.世界粮食危机与中国粮食安全.当代经济研究[J],2009(2),53-56
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