建筑业企业盈利系统动态模型及其应用研究
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摘要
随着经济全球化进程的加快、信息技术的发展以及建筑市场竞争的日益激烈，建筑行业发生了很大的变化。在这种新形势下，中国建筑业企业的处境将更加艰难。为了摆脱效益持续不佳的局面，中国建筑业企业迫切需要对其经营绩效进行有效管理，以提升自身的核心竞争力和企业价值。然而，传统的管理理论难以满足建筑业企业的这一需求，因此，需要不断地创新现有的理论和方法。
作为一种新的尝试和探索，本文将系统科学理论应用于建筑业企业的业绩管理，提出了一个具有过程性、系统性、动态性和复杂适应性的建筑业企业盈利系统，并利用系统动力学方法构建了盈利系统的模型，以分析建筑业企业的盈利能力。该模型以建筑业企业的利润链为核心，包括了企业组织内部各个基本单位以及企业外部的部分利益主体，这些单位和主体相互影响、相互作用，并且从多个方面与利润链发生联系，从而影响到企业利润的形成和盈利能力的强弱。
以一家典型的中型建筑总承包企业作为模拟对象，本文重点研究了盈利系统中的投标子系统、现金管理子系统和物资供应子系统。通过对投标子系统的动力学模型进行模拟，其结果显示，目前中国的建筑业企业采取“薄利多销”策略能够对盈利能力产生正面的影响，投标系统还具有路径依赖的特征，系统初始状态下随机产生的扰动会被该系统不断放大直到对企业盈利能力行为产生重要的影响，此外,由于承包商在承包工程项目时通常需要出具投标担保和履约担保，因此，担保能力的制约会使建筑业企业的盈利能力下降。然而，投标系统中的投标代理人Agent能够通过学习机制来调整投标报价策略进而提升企业的盈利能力。通过现金管理子系统模型的模拟定量地分析了工程拖欠款问题给建筑承包商的盈利能力造成的影响。虽然承包商可以以继续拖欠工资和材料款的方式缓解自身资金紧张，但由此损失的材料现金折扣可能会使其得不偿失。通过一种改进的遗传算法对项目进度计划进行优化，能够提高项目盈利。在多项目现金管理系统中，采用“现金耕耘”策略能够节约资金使用成本，提高企业整体盈利水平。基于物资供应子系统的动力学模型所进行的仿真结果表明，建筑业企业的物资供应系统不稳定会导致供应成本的增加，从而削弱企业的盈利能力，因此，物资供应系统的稳定性管理对于提升建筑业企业的盈利能力非常重要。在该系统中，可以利用动态存储模型进行库存管理优化，从而给建筑业企业带来库存成本的节约和盈利的增加。
The construction industry has changed significantly due to accelerating ofglobalization, development of information technology and increased marketcompetition. China construction companies are harder to operate in the newsurroundings. In order to improve profit margin, they urgently demand to manage theirperformance more effectively to enhance competitiveness and increase company value.However, traditional management theory cannot meet the needs and constructioncompanies require innovative theory and method.
As an attempt and exploration this study applies a new theory of system science toperformance management of construction firm, and proposes a process-based, systemic,dynamic, complex and adaptive profitability system. And this study develops a modelof the profitability system by System Dynamics to analyze the profitability ofconstruction firms. With profit chain as the core, this model includes basic units ofconstruction organization and several interest subjects. These units and subjects areinteractive and related to profit chain from many aspects, and thus have impact onrealization of profit and profitability of construction firm.
With a typical medium contractor as simulating object, this study is mainlyconcentrated bidding, cash management and supply sub-systems in the profitabilitysystem. Based on the bidding system model, the simulation results indicate thatcurrently strategy of small profit but quick turnover for China construction firmactively influences the profitability. Path dependency exists in the bidding system, andstochastic disturbance in initial condition is amplified until it plays a significant impacton behavior of the profitability system. In addition, contractor generally needs toprovide tender bond and performance bond, therefore bond capacity limit lead toprofitability decrease. However, bidding agent can adjust bid pricing strategy bylearning to improve profitability. The outcomes of simulating cash management systemdemonstrate that the longer construction owner delay payment to contractor, theheavier contractor suffer financial loss. Though contractor can relieve the lack of cashby delay payment to labor and supplier, the loss brought by material discount may beheavy. Optimizing project schedule using an kind of improved genetic algorithm helpto increase project profit. Cash farming in multi-project cash management system isbenefit to save use cost of capital and raise the whole profitability of construction firm. As for supply system, simulation results show that instability of supply system cause toincrease of supply cost and weaken profitability, so stability management of supplysystem is very important for improving firm profitability. Optimization of inventorycontrol with dynamic storage model help construction firm to decrease inventory costand raise profit.
作为一种新的尝试和探索，本文将系统科学理论应用于建筑业企业的业绩管理，提出了一个具有过程性、系统性、动态性和复杂适应性的建筑业企业盈利系统，并利用系统动力学方法构建了盈利系统的模型，以分析建筑业企业的盈利能力。该模型以建筑业企业的利润链为核心，包括了企业组织内部各个基本单位以及企业外部的部分利益主体，这些单位和主体相互影响、相互作用，并且从多个方面与利润链发生联系，从而影响到企业利润的形成和盈利能力的强弱。
以一家典型的中型建筑总承包企业作为模拟对象，本文重点研究了盈利系统中的投标子系统、现金管理子系统和物资供应子系统。通过对投标子系统的动力学模型进行模拟，其结果显示，目前中国的建筑业企业采取“薄利多销”策略能够对盈利能力产生正面的影响，投标系统还具有路径依赖的特征，系统初始状态下随机产生的扰动会被该系统不断放大直到对企业盈利能力行为产生重要的影响，此外,由于承包商在承包工程项目时通常需要出具投标担保和履约担保，因此，担保能力的制约会使建筑业企业的盈利能力下降。然而，投标系统中的投标代理人Agent能够通过学习机制来调整投标报价策略进而提升企业的盈利能力。通过现金管理子系统模型的模拟定量地分析了工程拖欠款问题给建筑承包商的盈利能力造成的影响。虽然承包商可以以继续拖欠工资和材料款的方式缓解自身资金紧张，但由此损失的材料现金折扣可能会使其得不偿失。通过一种改进的遗传算法对项目进度计划进行优化，能够提高项目盈利。在多项目现金管理系统中，采用“现金耕耘”策略能够节约资金使用成本，提高企业整体盈利水平。基于物资供应子系统的动力学模型所进行的仿真结果表明，建筑业企业的物资供应系统不稳定会导致供应成本的增加，从而削弱企业的盈利能力，因此，物资供应系统的稳定性管理对于提升建筑业企业的盈利能力非常重要。在该系统中，可以利用动态存储模型进行库存管理优化，从而给建筑业企业带来库存成本的节约和盈利的增加。
The construction industry has changed significantly due to accelerating ofglobalization, development of information technology and increased marketcompetition. China construction companies are harder to operate in the newsurroundings. In order to improve profit margin, they urgently demand to manage theirperformance more effectively to enhance competitiveness and increase company value.However, traditional management theory cannot meet the needs and constructioncompanies require innovative theory and method.
As an attempt and exploration this study applies a new theory of system science toperformance management of construction firm, and proposes a process-based, systemic,dynamic, complex and adaptive profitability system. And this study develops a modelof the profitability system by System Dynamics to analyze the profitability ofconstruction firms. With profit chain as the core, this model includes basic units ofconstruction organization and several interest subjects. These units and subjects areinteractive and related to profit chain from many aspects, and thus have impact onrealization of profit and profitability of construction firm.
With a typical medium contractor as simulating object, this study is mainlyconcentrated bidding, cash management and supply sub-systems in the profitabilitysystem. Based on the bidding system model, the simulation results indicate thatcurrently strategy of small profit but quick turnover for China construction firmactively influences the profitability. Path dependency exists in the bidding system, andstochastic disturbance in initial condition is amplified until it plays a significant impacton behavior of the profitability system. In addition, contractor generally needs toprovide tender bond and performance bond, therefore bond capacity limit lead toprofitability decrease. However, bidding agent can adjust bid pricing strategy bylearning to improve profitability. The outcomes of simulating cash management systemdemonstrate that the longer construction owner delay payment to contractor, theheavier contractor suffer financial loss. Though contractor can relieve the lack of cashby delay payment to labor and supplier, the loss brought by material discount may beheavy. Optimizing project schedule using an kind of improved genetic algorithm helpto increase project profit. Cash farming in multi-project cash management system isbenefit to save use cost of capital and raise the whole profitability of construction firm. As for supply system, simulation results show that instability of supply system cause toincrease of supply cost and weaken profitability, so stability management of supplysystem is very important for improving firm profitability. Optimization of inventorycontrol with dynamic storage model help construction firm to decrease inventory costand raise profit.
引文
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