美国经济的“二元化”研究
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摘要
长期以来，主流经济理论认为就业是经济增长的派生物，是从属于经济增长的，解决就业问题的最有力武器是经济增长。然而，当前美国经济表现出“高失业型的经济增长”以及“奥肯定律”不再有效使得传统就业理论陷入了困境，对此，刘骏民教授提出了经济“二元化”的概念，指出其本质原因是美国经济增长与就业创造之间联系的弱化。正是居于这样的认识，本文摈弃了无法观测到“经济虚拟化事实”的传统经济结构的三部门分类法，形成了实体经济、虚拟经济和低端服务业部门的新三部门分类，支持了对于美国经济“二元化”的假说并对此进行了认证，认为美国之所以呈现“二元化”的根本原因在于其经济运行方式发生了变化，从而导致美国经济的GDP增长越来越依赖于高价值化的虚拟经济部门，而就业创造则愈来愈集中于低端服务业部门，并且二者的联系在持续弱化，由此出现GDP经济与就业经济相分离的状态。这导致美国经济的GDP和就业恢复能力异于20世纪30年代，从而使得以凯恩斯主义为主的经济恢复政策陷入无效的困境。
本文首先从理论上对经济中增长和就业的关系进行了描述，得出在经济虚拟化条件下经济“二元化”发展趋势的必然性。当经济假设为一个循环流系统时，可以从两个角度来观测，一是投入产出视角，另外一个是资金流量视角；而基于二者结合的二维视角才能比较好的观测到虚拟经济活动。当把这种二维视角运用到经济结构分析当中来时，发现加入经济虚拟化的经济结构演变将会导致GDP增长依赖于高价值化部门，而就业的创造依赖于低价值化部门；并且由于资本与劳动的相斥性使得二者不可能处于同一个载体之上，也就是说经济系统中不可能找得到这样一个部门——即是高价值创造又是高就业的。因此，假设存在实物部门、资产部门和服务部门的简单三部门经济系统中，实物部门对GDP和就业的贡献将不断的下降，资产部门对GDP贡献的上升速度远远超过其对就业贡献的上升，而服务业部门对就业贡献上升速度却大大高于其于GDP贡献的，最后在非均衡的增长过程中经济是发散的，必然出现GDP增长和就业创造相分离的趋势。这就是在虚拟经济条件下美国经济的GDP增长和就业创造分析的基本思路和逻辑框架。
货币支柱的虚拟化和经济创新在美国的双重结合，催生了虚拟资本的虚拟膨胀。美国从20世纪70年代就开始加速走上了经济虚拟化的道路，其在不断虚拟化的过程中，表现出了核心GDP经济的“虚拟化”以及“去工业化”的特征。上世纪五十年代曾经以制造业作为GDP核心经济的美国，在进入七十年代以后表现为金融房地产的核心化。美国经济GDP增长驱动力已经由原来以制造业为中心演变成了以金融房地产部门为中心的经济系统，并且核心经济的这种态势展示出越来越固化的趋势。而从就业创造的结构来看，制造业的就业贡献呈现持续下降趋势；艺术娱乐休闲与餐饮业、教育医疗保健与救助业的就业贡献则呈现持续上升的趋势，并在绝对的贡献份额上超越了制造业；其他行业部门的趋势变化幅度较小；政府服务业、零售业的就业贡献程度一直维持在高位运行；由此，可以基本判断美国的核心就业部门已经由制造业演变成了以艺术娱乐休闲与餐饮业等为代表的低端服务行业。从产业关联的角度来看，经济系统之GDP和就业的恢复能力最强的部门依然是传统的主导部门——制造业部门，但当前的核心GDP部门表现为金融房地产部门，就业的核心部门表现为低端服务部门，从而出现了无论是在GDP还是在就业上对于主导部门的偏离，从而大大削弱了经济之GDP和就业恢复的实际能力。
针对美国经济GDP和就业演变在结构上出现的新特征，传统的农业、工业和服务业的三部门分类法并不能像观察“卡尔多”和“库兹涅茨”典型化事实那样来得有效。而“虚拟经济和实体经济”的二分法启示我们可以把经济系统分为传统实体经济部门、虚拟经济部门和低端服务业部门，该新三部门统计分类不但能很好的对经济中的两大目标：经济增长和就业进行分析，而且还能很好的给予经济虚拟化以足够的观测。基于新三部门统计分类的分析，发现美国经历核心经济的虚拟化，表现为GDP创造越来越依赖于虚拟经济部门；但经济虚拟化的本质是对高价值的追逐，是服务于GDP增长的，而就业则不得不越来越依赖于低端服务业部门，出现核心就业的低端价值化。美国的GDP经济和就业经济出现逐步相分离的趋势，使美国经济结构表现为不断“二元化”的过程。这种二元化的经济增长模式是经济虚拟化的必然结果，它的本质就是“就业经济与GDP创造经济”的二元化。
虚拟经济的全球化特性导致美国GDP的恢复是以全球的经济为后盾的，而就业仍然是以本国经济为基础；即GDP恢复的全球化，而就业的本土化；这进一步加剧了美国经济的自我恢复能力之GDP增长和就业创造的割裂性。GDP增长和就业创造相分离的特性改变了“奥肯定律”存在的经济基础；在经济向好的情况下，依赖不同经济基础的GDP和就业的“奥肯定律”在统计上仍然成立；但在经济向下或者恢复的阶段，二者的割裂性将暴露无遗。而当前忽视经济“二元化”事实的经济恢复政策只能使得美国走上“高失业型经济增长”的道路。美国要想通过政府的救市政策从而彻底让经济走出萧条有两条途径：一是通过结构调整来重新恢复虚拟经济部门与低端服务业之间的联系；二是通过经济再造计划逐步减少就业经济与GDP创造经济的二元化程度。但，无论哪一种，都将经历一个漫长而痛苦的过程。
Since long ago, the mainstream economic theory view employment is derivativeand subordinate to the economic growth, so they had the idea that the most powerfulweapon to solve the employment problem is economic growth. Howerer, the currentU.S. economic demonstrated a “high unemployment of economic growth” situationand “Okun's law” hadn’t effective any more, which made traditional employmenttheory into trouble.Professor Liu Junmin present an concept “economy dualism” thatthe U.S. economy growth and job creation is separated from each other. Based on that,this paper abandoning the traditional economic three-sector classification which couldnot be observed the fact of “Economic fictitilization”, and formate an newthree-sector classification which be named of the real economy、 fictitious economyand low-value service economy sector.It shows that it's not an accidental phenomenonfor the present economic growth with high unemployment and Okun's Law falls intotrouble in U.S., instead it indicates that the U.S. economy undertanking a structuralconversion led by economic fictitilization. On this basis, the U.S economic structureis found to be under a continuing trend of dualization which is the GDP growthincreasingly being dependent on the fictitious economy sector and job creationgradually being concentrated in low-value service sector;furthermore, the linkbetween them is continuously weakening, which result in the separation of GDPeconomy and employment economy.
When the economy is assumed to be a loop flow system, there are twoperspectives for observation, one is the input-output perspective and the other is cashflow perspective, however a two-dimensional perspective based on the combinationof both is a better way to observe fictitious economic activity.When thistwo-dimensional perspective is applied to the analysis of the economic structure, itshows that economic structure evolution added by economic fictitilization will leadGDP growth to depend on high-value sector, while employment growth depend onhigh employment creation department. Besides, because of the existence of theexclusion between capital and labor, they can not coexist in the same carrier; that is to say, department in the the economic system which is both high value-created andemployment-created will be to exist. Thus, assuming there is an economic systemconsisting of physical sector, asset sector and service sector, in which thecontribution of physical sector to GDP and employment will be continue to decline,the contribution of asset sector to GDP rises much faster than that of employment,and the contribution of service sector to employment is much higher than itscontribution to GDP, eventually there must be an inevitable trend of separation ofGDP growth and job creation in the unbalanced economic growth process.This is thebasic ideas and logical framework to study GDP growth and job creation of U.S.under the condition of economic fictitilization.
The United States started the acceleration of economic fictitilization since the1970s, and the core economy shows the characteristic of "fictitilization" and"deindustrialization" in the continuous process of fictitilization. The manufacturingsector used to be the core of GDP in the1950s, but it was replaced by financial andreal estate sector since1970s. So the driving force of the U.S. GDP growth haschanged from manufacturing sector to financial and real estate sector, and it shows atrend of being more and more solidified currently. From the structure of employmentcreation, employment contribution of manufacturing sector shows a continueddownward trend; the contribution of art、leisure sector、catering、education andhealth care industry being in a uprising way,and morever the absolute contributionhas exceeded the manufacturing sector since1970s; the trend of other sectors stayedsable; the contribution of government service sector and retail sector has beenmaintaining on a high level; therefore we can judge that core employment creation inthe United States has evolved from the manufacturing sector into low-value servicesector represented by the art and leisure sector and catering industry. From the pointof view of industry association, manufacturing sector is still the dominant sector withhighest capacity of GDP restoring and employment resilience, but the corecontribution sector of GDP is financial real estate sector and the core contributionsector of employment is low-value service sector, which lead to the deviation of thedominant sector in terms of both GDP and employment, resulting in weakening ofactual resilience capacity of economy in GDP growth and employment creation.
Unlike stylizing "Kaldor" and "Kuznets" facts, the traditional classification ofagriculture、 industry and service sector is not so effective any more for the newfeatures of GDP and employment’s structure evolution. In the framework of"fictitious economy and real economy", we divide the economic system into traditionalreal sector、fictitious economic sector and low-value service sector, not only couldthis new classification of three sectors analyze economic growth and employmentwhich are two of the four goals of macro-economy, but also provide enoughobservations for economic fictitilization. Based on the analysis, it shows the U.S. hasexperienced fictitilization of core economy, which made the GDP more and moredependence on the fictitious sector; while the nature of the fictitious economy is topursuit of high value, serving for GDP growth; nevertheless employment creation hasto become increasingly dependent on low-value service sector, the core of economicemployment tend to be low-value value. This,the U.S. GDP and employment shows atrend of gradual separation, and the economic structure tends to be in a continuousdualism process. This dualism model of economic growth is the inevitable result ofeconomic fictitilization，the nature of which is the dualism of employment economyand GDP economy. Now the globalization features of vidualismtual economy leads tothe recovery of the U.S. GDP is based on global economy, while employment is stillbased on domestic economy; namely globalization of GDP resilience and localizationof employment, which further exacerbated self-resilience ability of the U.S. economybetween GDP growth and job creation. The separation feature of GDP growth and jobcreation changed the economic foundation on which Okun's Law being based, sounder favorable economic circumstances,"Okun's Law relying on GDP andemployment of different economic basis, still holds statistically. However, inrecession or recovery stage, the separation between them will be exposed. The currenteconomic resilience policy ignored the fact of economic dualism，which will onlymake the United States embarked on the road of growth with high unemployment.There are two ways for the United States to get rid of depression through thegovernment's rescuing policies. Firstly, through structural adjustment to restore thelink between the virtual sector and low-value service sector; the second is througheconomic re-forming plan to gradually reduce dualism level of employment creation economy and GDP economy. However, no matter which one is chosen, there will be along and painful way to go ahead.
本文首先从理论上对经济中增长和就业的关系进行了描述，得出在经济虚拟化条件下经济“二元化”发展趋势的必然性。当经济假设为一个循环流系统时，可以从两个角度来观测，一是投入产出视角，另外一个是资金流量视角；而基于二者结合的二维视角才能比较好的观测到虚拟经济活动。当把这种二维视角运用到经济结构分析当中来时，发现加入经济虚拟化的经济结构演变将会导致GDP增长依赖于高价值化部门，而就业的创造依赖于低价值化部门；并且由于资本与劳动的相斥性使得二者不可能处于同一个载体之上，也就是说经济系统中不可能找得到这样一个部门——即是高价值创造又是高就业的。因此，假设存在实物部门、资产部门和服务部门的简单三部门经济系统中，实物部门对GDP和就业的贡献将不断的下降，资产部门对GDP贡献的上升速度远远超过其对就业贡献的上升，而服务业部门对就业贡献上升速度却大大高于其于GDP贡献的，最后在非均衡的增长过程中经济是发散的，必然出现GDP增长和就业创造相分离的趋势。这就是在虚拟经济条件下美国经济的GDP增长和就业创造分析的基本思路和逻辑框架。
货币支柱的虚拟化和经济创新在美国的双重结合，催生了虚拟资本的虚拟膨胀。美国从20世纪70年代就开始加速走上了经济虚拟化的道路，其在不断虚拟化的过程中，表现出了核心GDP经济的“虚拟化”以及“去工业化”的特征。上世纪五十年代曾经以制造业作为GDP核心经济的美国，在进入七十年代以后表现为金融房地产的核心化。美国经济GDP增长驱动力已经由原来以制造业为中心演变成了以金融房地产部门为中心的经济系统，并且核心经济的这种态势展示出越来越固化的趋势。而从就业创造的结构来看，制造业的就业贡献呈现持续下降趋势；艺术娱乐休闲与餐饮业、教育医疗保健与救助业的就业贡献则呈现持续上升的趋势，并在绝对的贡献份额上超越了制造业；其他行业部门的趋势变化幅度较小；政府服务业、零售业的就业贡献程度一直维持在高位运行；由此，可以基本判断美国的核心就业部门已经由制造业演变成了以艺术娱乐休闲与餐饮业等为代表的低端服务行业。从产业关联的角度来看，经济系统之GDP和就业的恢复能力最强的部门依然是传统的主导部门——制造业部门，但当前的核心GDP部门表现为金融房地产部门，就业的核心部门表现为低端服务部门，从而出现了无论是在GDP还是在就业上对于主导部门的偏离，从而大大削弱了经济之GDP和就业恢复的实际能力。
针对美国经济GDP和就业演变在结构上出现的新特征，传统的农业、工业和服务业的三部门分类法并不能像观察“卡尔多”和“库兹涅茨”典型化事实那样来得有效。而“虚拟经济和实体经济”的二分法启示我们可以把经济系统分为传统实体经济部门、虚拟经济部门和低端服务业部门，该新三部门统计分类不但能很好的对经济中的两大目标：经济增长和就业进行分析，而且还能很好的给予经济虚拟化以足够的观测。基于新三部门统计分类的分析，发现美国经历核心经济的虚拟化，表现为GDP创造越来越依赖于虚拟经济部门；但经济虚拟化的本质是对高价值的追逐，是服务于GDP增长的，而就业则不得不越来越依赖于低端服务业部门，出现核心就业的低端价值化。美国的GDP经济和就业经济出现逐步相分离的趋势，使美国经济结构表现为不断“二元化”的过程。这种二元化的经济增长模式是经济虚拟化的必然结果，它的本质就是“就业经济与GDP创造经济”的二元化。
虚拟经济的全球化特性导致美国GDP的恢复是以全球的经济为后盾的，而就业仍然是以本国经济为基础；即GDP恢复的全球化，而就业的本土化；这进一步加剧了美国经济的自我恢复能力之GDP增长和就业创造的割裂性。GDP增长和就业创造相分离的特性改变了“奥肯定律”存在的经济基础；在经济向好的情况下，依赖不同经济基础的GDP和就业的“奥肯定律”在统计上仍然成立；但在经济向下或者恢复的阶段，二者的割裂性将暴露无遗。而当前忽视经济“二元化”事实的经济恢复政策只能使得美国走上“高失业型经济增长”的道路。美国要想通过政府的救市政策从而彻底让经济走出萧条有两条途径：一是通过结构调整来重新恢复虚拟经济部门与低端服务业之间的联系；二是通过经济再造计划逐步减少就业经济与GDP创造经济的二元化程度。但，无论哪一种，都将经历一个漫长而痛苦的过程。
Since long ago, the mainstream economic theory view employment is derivativeand subordinate to the economic growth, so they had the idea that the most powerfulweapon to solve the employment problem is economic growth. Howerer, the currentU.S. economic demonstrated a “high unemployment of economic growth” situationand “Okun's law” hadn’t effective any more, which made traditional employmenttheory into trouble.Professor Liu Junmin present an concept “economy dualism” thatthe U.S. economy growth and job creation is separated from each other. Based on that,this paper abandoning the traditional economic three-sector classification which couldnot be observed the fact of “Economic fictitilization”, and formate an newthree-sector classification which be named of the real economy、 fictitious economyand low-value service economy sector.It shows that it's not an accidental phenomenonfor the present economic growth with high unemployment and Okun's Law falls intotrouble in U.S., instead it indicates that the U.S. economy undertanking a structuralconversion led by economic fictitilization. On this basis, the U.S economic structureis found to be under a continuing trend of dualization which is the GDP growthincreasingly being dependent on the fictitious economy sector and job creationgradually being concentrated in low-value service sector;furthermore, the linkbetween them is continuously weakening, which result in the separation of GDPeconomy and employment economy.
When the economy is assumed to be a loop flow system, there are twoperspectives for observation, one is the input-output perspective and the other is cashflow perspective, however a two-dimensional perspective based on the combinationof both is a better way to observe fictitious economic activity.When thistwo-dimensional perspective is applied to the analysis of the economic structure, itshows that economic structure evolution added by economic fictitilization will leadGDP growth to depend on high-value sector, while employment growth depend onhigh employment creation department. Besides, because of the existence of theexclusion between capital and labor, they can not coexist in the same carrier; that is to say, department in the the economic system which is both high value-created andemployment-created will be to exist. Thus, assuming there is an economic systemconsisting of physical sector, asset sector and service sector, in which thecontribution of physical sector to GDP and employment will be continue to decline,the contribution of asset sector to GDP rises much faster than that of employment,and the contribution of service sector to employment is much higher than itscontribution to GDP, eventually there must be an inevitable trend of separation ofGDP growth and job creation in the unbalanced economic growth process.This is thebasic ideas and logical framework to study GDP growth and job creation of U.S.under the condition of economic fictitilization.
The United States started the acceleration of economic fictitilization since the1970s, and the core economy shows the characteristic of "fictitilization" and"deindustrialization" in the continuous process of fictitilization. The manufacturingsector used to be the core of GDP in the1950s, but it was replaced by financial andreal estate sector since1970s. So the driving force of the U.S. GDP growth haschanged from manufacturing sector to financial and real estate sector, and it shows atrend of being more and more solidified currently. From the structure of employmentcreation, employment contribution of manufacturing sector shows a continueddownward trend; the contribution of art、leisure sector、catering、education andhealth care industry being in a uprising way,and morever the absolute contributionhas exceeded the manufacturing sector since1970s; the trend of other sectors stayedsable; the contribution of government service sector and retail sector has beenmaintaining on a high level; therefore we can judge that core employment creation inthe United States has evolved from the manufacturing sector into low-value servicesector represented by the art and leisure sector and catering industry. From the pointof view of industry association, manufacturing sector is still the dominant sector withhighest capacity of GDP restoring and employment resilience, but the corecontribution sector of GDP is financial real estate sector and the core contributionsector of employment is low-value service sector, which lead to the deviation of thedominant sector in terms of both GDP and employment, resulting in weakening ofactual resilience capacity of economy in GDP growth and employment creation.
Unlike stylizing "Kaldor" and "Kuznets" facts, the traditional classification ofagriculture、 industry and service sector is not so effective any more for the newfeatures of GDP and employment’s structure evolution. In the framework of"fictitious economy and real economy", we divide the economic system into traditionalreal sector、fictitious economic sector and low-value service sector, not only couldthis new classification of three sectors analyze economic growth and employmentwhich are two of the four goals of macro-economy, but also provide enoughobservations for economic fictitilization. Based on the analysis, it shows the U.S. hasexperienced fictitilization of core economy, which made the GDP more and moredependence on the fictitious sector; while the nature of the fictitious economy is topursuit of high value, serving for GDP growth; nevertheless employment creation hasto become increasingly dependent on low-value service sector, the core of economicemployment tend to be low-value value. This,the U.S. GDP and employment shows atrend of gradual separation, and the economic structure tends to be in a continuousdualism process. This dualism model of economic growth is the inevitable result ofeconomic fictitilization，the nature of which is the dualism of employment economyand GDP economy. Now the globalization features of vidualismtual economy leads tothe recovery of the U.S. GDP is based on global economy, while employment is stillbased on domestic economy; namely globalization of GDP resilience and localizationof employment, which further exacerbated self-resilience ability of the U.S. economybetween GDP growth and job creation. The separation feature of GDP growth and jobcreation changed the economic foundation on which Okun's Law being based, sounder favorable economic circumstances,"Okun's Law relying on GDP andemployment of different economic basis, still holds statistically. However, inrecession or recovery stage, the separation between them will be exposed. The currenteconomic resilience policy ignored the fact of economic dualism，which will onlymake the United States embarked on the road of growth with high unemployment.There are two ways for the United States to get rid of depression through thegovernment's rescuing policies. Firstly, through structural adjustment to restore thelink between the virtual sector and low-value service sector; the second is througheconomic re-forming plan to gradually reduce dualism level of employment creation economy and GDP economy. However, no matter which one is chosen, there will be along and painful way to go ahead.
引文
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①张国庆（2010）认为后工业化社会是以虚拟经济为主要运行方式，但后工业到底应该如何却存在争论。
①成思危，刘骏民，刘晓欣等都认为当前经济全球化的本质是经济的虚拟化。
①Daron Acemoglue.“Intuoduction to Modern Economic Growth”[M],2008.对二元经济问题做了最新的回顾。
②解栋栋,“中国经济结构变动和要素再配置研究”[D],复旦大学.2010年
③刘骏民总结为泡沫经济体现在价格的上涨，而虚拟经济体现为规模数量的扩张；张国庆(2010)则从产生机制和经济的影响两个角度进行了区别。
④瓦伊纳(Viner.1337年)、劳德戴尔(Lauderdale)和李嘉图(Riarda)等都使用过此概念。
①新帕尔格雷夫夫经济学大辞典P340-P341
②刘骏民：从虚拟资本到虚拟经济[M].济南：山东人民出版社，1998年，P273
③成思危：虚拟经济论丛[M].北京：民主与建设出版社，2003年，.P48-51
④成思危：第二届虚拟经济研讨会论文集，天津：南开大学出版社2002年
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②同上，P84.
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①库兹尼茨：“现代经济的增长：发现与反思”，现代国外经济学论文集，2
②充分就业并不意味着失业为零，可能存在这样的混乱情况：大量的工人从现在的岗位上被替代下来，但创造新的工作需要时间；这种情况可能发生在战争结束时，或由于一些重大技术变革而导致；除了这些特殊情况，还必须考虑到摩擦性和季节性失业。
③新帕尔格雷夫大辞典P466-468
④联合国开发署根据经济增长率和就业增长率的关系划分为四种类型:高经济增长、低就业或无就业型；经济增长、高就业机会型；经济增长率下降、就业机会有所扩大型；经济增长率下降，就业机会下降型。
①西蒙·库兹涅茨,常勋等译.各国的经济增长—总产值和生产结构[M].北京:商务印书馆,1985．P113
①阿瑟.刘易斯著,施炜等译：“二元经济论”[M],北京经济学院出版社.1989
②陈凯、邓志峰、庞素梅：“二元经济质疑论”[J],经济问题,1995(12)
③刘骏民：《双本位国际货币体系的形成及其历史趋势—世界经济三大趋势如何冲破固化的世界经济格局》[J],开放导报,2011年
①美国通用公司通过其下属的通用金融（GE Capital）广泛的参与到抵押贷款、消费信贷和信用卡、飞机租赁和商业地产投资等业务，从上个世纪80年代开始，通用金融就贡献了通用电气公司近一半的利润。
①R.Reuveny and W.Thompson,2001,“Leading sectors,leading economies and economic growth”,Review ofInternational Polictical Economy,8:4Winter PP.689-719.
②刘骏民，宛敏华；“依赖虚拟经济还是实体经济—中美核心经济与核心需求的比较”，开放导报，2009(1)
①(美)H.N.沙伊贝,.H.G.瓦特,H.U.福克纳著;“近百年美国经济史”P(32)，中国社会科学出版社
②马克思.《资本论》第三卷，P451
①刘骏民等把这些以虚拟经济活动为主的金融、房地产及其租赁业和职业服务业部门叫做虚拟经济部门
①这种经济增长之所以叫做“迷失型的经济增长”，因为增长并没有进入到普通一般老百姓的家庭，只是让富人的资产恢复了而已；表现为经济增长的复苏而就业问题仍然继续恶化，刘骏民等学者也把这种增长方式叫做“高失业型经济增长”。
①希腊主权债务危机发生后,葡萄牙、爱尔兰、意大利和西班牙也因为债务问题成为市场关注的焦点,这五个国家便被称为PIIGS国家(笨猪五国)。
①主要由一般均衡理论、货币中性理论与内生经济增长理论构成，参见刘骏民（2011）。
②参见：克鲁格曼，“经济学家为什么会错得这么厉害”，2009；其中：甜水派指对凯恩斯观点嗤之以鼻的经济学家，因为主要在美国内地的大学而得名；盐水派指凯恩斯主义者，主要供职于沿海地区而得名。
③钱津，国际金融危机对现代经济学的十大挑战[J]，开放导报，2009（04）
①朱民在第四届虚拟经济研讨会关于“美国金融危机对现代金融理论的冲击”的主题演讲。
②发展经济学中的“二元”是指，先进生产力和落后生产率部门的并存。
③“新结构经济学——重构发展经济学的框架”，是林毅夫在2009年6月2日到任世界银行一周年时举行的世界银行发展经济学部第四次资深经济学家研讨会论文。
①Okun, A.M.,1962,“Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance”[J],American StatisticalAssociation,Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, P98-104.
①马克思.《资本论》第1卷，人民出版社1975年版，P491
②马克思.《资本论》第1卷，人民出版社1975年版，P495
③马克思.《资本论》第1卷，人民出版社1975年版，P492
④马克思.《资本论》第1卷，人民出版社1975年版，P694
①马克思.《资本论》第1卷，人民出版社1975年版，P699
②凯恩斯就业理论以1936出版的《就业、利息和货币通论》为标志
①凯恩斯：《就业、利息和货币通论》，商务印书馆，1983，P17
①Lewis.W.A“Eeonomic Development with Unlimited Supply of Labor”[J].The Manchester School of Economicand Social Studies,1954(5),139-191
①Burda，M,1993."Unemployment, Labour Markets and Structural Change in EasternEurope"Economic Policy，Apri11993,16-17:102-28,132-7.
②Bankim Chadha, Fabrizio Coricelli. Fiscal constraints and the speed of transition.Journal of DevelopmentEconomics,1997,52,(1):221-249.
③世界银行，《1995年世界发展报告—一体化世界中的劳动者间》，北京：财政经济出版社，1995年
①邹薇，中国经济对奥肯定律的偏离与失业问题研究[J].世界经济.2003(6)
②杨旭、李隽、王哲昊，对我国潜在经济增长率的测算——基于二元结构奥肯定律的实证分析[J].数量技术与经济研究.2007(10)
①张车伟、蔡防，就业弹性变化趋势研究[J].中国工业经济.2002(05)
①〔美〕菲利普.阿吉翁，彼得.霍伊特；陶然等译：《内生经济增长理论》，北京：北京大学出版社，2004
①马克思：《资本论(第1卷)》[M]，北京:人民出版社,1975年版.P391
②“主导产业”是针对经济工业化阶段而提出的概念，而“核心产业”是针对经济虚拟化阶段而提出的。
③经济增长与就业关系（GDP and Employment’s Relationship Modle）简称GER模型，后文都以此为代表。
①伍纯武，梁守锵译.布阿吉尔贝尔选集[M]．北京：商务印书馆，1984年，P157
①马克思恩格斯全集(第30卷)[M]．北京：人民出版社，1975年，P358
②Leontief于1931年建立了投入产出方法的理论，1932年编制了第一张经济投入产出表—美国
(1919-1929)，1936年发表《美国经济体系中投入产出的数量关系》，1941年出版《美国经济结构
(1919-1929)》，1951年再版《美国经济结构1919-1939》增添了1939年的投入产出表，1953年版《美国经济结构研究》。
①参见：斯拉法.用商品生产商品[M].北京：商务印书馆，1963年
②1944年，Copeland在NBER宣读了论文《通过美国经济追踪货币流通》一文,使得资金流量核算引起了广泛的关注。1952年,发表了公认的对资金流量分析具有最大贡献的经典著作《美国货币流量的研究》一书,标志着资金流量分析的正式创立。
③刘骏民.从虚拟资本到虚拟经济[M].济南：山东人民出版社，1998.
①刘晓欣.解析当代经济“倒金字塔”之谜——对20世纪80年代以来虚拟资产日益膨胀现象的思考[J].经济理论与经济管理，2005(11)
②刘骏民，张云.虚拟经济视野的流动性膨胀困境与应对[J].改革，2008(1)
①R.Reuveny and W.Thompson,2001,“Leading sectors,leading economies and economic growth”,Review ofInternational Polictical Economy,8:4Winter PP.689-719.
②刘骏民，宛敏华；“依赖虚拟经济还是实体经济—中美核心经济与核心需求的比较”，开放导报，2009（1）
①刘骏民、宛敏华.依赖于虚拟经济还是实体经济——中美核心经济与核心需求的比较[J].开放导报，2009(1):15—21.
①刘骏民，虚拟经济的经济学，开放导报[J],2008(6)
①见刘晓欣，虚拟经济与价值化积累【M】南开大学出版社2007
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