中国发生经济危机的可能性研究
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摘要
自从1825年英国爆发第一次周期性普遍生产过剩的经济危机以来,经济危机就成为困扰市场经济正常运行的重要因素。而对经济危机的理论研究也随着不同时期经济危机的出现而不断发展和完善。
而本文的主要目的,是通过对历史上三次大型的经济危机——1929年美国大萧条、1991年日本经济泡沫破灭、以及2008年美国次贷危机——的具体分析,找出危机爆发原因的共同点,并能对当前中国经济发展中遇到的问题作出一定的指引。三次危机的爆发,从短期原因来看,都是起始于股票市场或者房地产市场泡沫的破灭。产生资产泡沫的原因,主要来自于危机爆发之前政府所采取的宽松的货币政策,表现在长期偏低的实际利率、宽松的银行信贷,以及银行贷款对房地产业过度的倾斜等方面。而从长期因素看,贫富不均的加剧、不利的人口因素,都会制约经济的增长。以这些指标为借鉴,本文在详细分析中国货币政策、股票市场和房地产市场的泡沫、金融系统风险、贫富差距、人口状况和城市化道路的基础上,评估了中国爆发经济危机的可能性。
Since its first burst in England in1825, economic crises has become the factor that significantly influenced the working of macro economy. The economic crises theory has also been improved and perfected with the break out of crises in different period.
The purpose of this paper, is to find out the common reasons of economic crises, through the analysis of three crises in history, which is the great depression in U.S. A in1929, the Japanese economy bubbles in1991, and the subprime crises in2008, and finally to give some suggestion to the economic problem what China is confronted with now. The short term common reason of these crises is the bubble burst of the stock market or real estate market, which mainly derived from the easy monetary policy, such as the low real interest rate, the high bank credit growth, and the significant increase of the real estate loan from commercial bank. For long term, the wealth inequality and the negative demographic factor also slowed down the economic growth. Based on the international experience, we analyzed the prevailing monetary policy, bubbles in stock and real estate market, risk from financial system, inequality, demographic factor and the process of urbanization in detail, and finally made a systematic evaluation of the possibility of economic crises burst in China.
而本文的主要目的,是通过对历史上三次大型的经济危机——1929年美国大萧条、1991年日本经济泡沫破灭、以及2008年美国次贷危机——的具体分析,找出危机爆发原因的共同点,并能对当前中国经济发展中遇到的问题作出一定的指引。三次危机的爆发,从短期原因来看,都是起始于股票市场或者房地产市场泡沫的破灭。产生资产泡沫的原因,主要来自于危机爆发之前政府所采取的宽松的货币政策,表现在长期偏低的实际利率、宽松的银行信贷,以及银行贷款对房地产业过度的倾斜等方面。而从长期因素看,贫富不均的加剧、不利的人口因素,都会制约经济的增长。以这些指标为借鉴,本文在详细分析中国货币政策、股票市场和房地产市场的泡沫、金融系统风险、贫富差距、人口状况和城市化道路的基础上,评估了中国爆发经济危机的可能性。
Since its first burst in England in1825, economic crises has become the factor that significantly influenced the working of macro economy. The economic crises theory has also been improved and perfected with the break out of crises in different period.
The purpose of this paper, is to find out the common reasons of economic crises, through the analysis of three crises in history, which is the great depression in U.S. A in1929, the Japanese economy bubbles in1991, and the subprime crises in2008, and finally to give some suggestion to the economic problem what China is confronted with now. The short term common reason of these crises is the bubble burst of the stock market or real estate market, which mainly derived from the easy monetary policy, such as the low real interest rate, the high bank credit growth, and the significant increase of the real estate loan from commercial bank. For long term, the wealth inequality and the negative demographic factor also slowed down the economic growth. Based on the international experience, we analyzed the prevailing monetary policy, bubbles in stock and real estate market, risk from financial system, inequality, demographic factor and the process of urbanization in detail, and finally made a systematic evaluation of the possibility of economic crises burst in China.
引文
1 中国百科大辞典，第二版第四本,P2763
2 新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典,第二本,P362
3 世界经济学大辞典,P433
1 杨栋梁著,《日本近现代经济史》,P375,世界知识出版社,北京,2010
1 井村喜代子著：《现代日本经济论》,有斐阁2001年版,P382
2 杨栋梁著,《日本近现代经济史》,P392,世界知识出版社,北京,2010
1 弗雷德里克.刘易斯.艾伦著,秦传安、姚杰译,《大繁荣时代》,P176，2009,新世界出版社
1 乔森纳.休斯、路易斯.P.凯恩著,邸晓燕、刑露译,《美国经济史》第七版[M],P471,2011,北京大学出版社
1 Romer Paul, Crazy Explanations for the Productivity Slowdown[R], NBER Macroeconnomics Annual,1987, P60
2 Gregory Mankiw, David Romer,Weil,A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth[J].The Quarterly of Journal of Economics, P413
1 王小鲁,灰色收入与国民收入分配,2008,中国经济体制改革研究会灰色收入课题研究报告,P39
1 而且此处居民可支配收入总额用的是统计局公布的抽样数据，并没有考虑收入的低估。
1 王小鲁,灰色收入与国民收入分配,2008,中国经济体制改革研究会灰色收入课题研究报告,P39
1 根据国务院总理温家宝在2013年3月5日在第十二届全国人民代表大会第一次会议上所做的政府工作报告,2012年底,城镇和农村人均居住面积分别为32.9平方米和37.1平方米。
1 孙旭,中国银行业——理财专题：利率市场化之趋势,但仍需关注风险敞口,P11,2013年1月8日
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[22]吴有昌.货币危机的三代模型[J].世界经济,2000(3)：39-42
[23]杨溢.新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线理论的演变[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2012(2)：102-110
[24]杨溢.货币供应与通货膨胀的动态关系研究[J].经济理论与经济管理,2011(7)：67-75
[25]余永定.美国次贷危机：北京、原因与发展[J].北京：当代亚太,2008(5)：12-16
[26]袁鲲、段君山,信贷扩张、房地产泡沫与银行危机——基于国际比较和经验借鉴[J],财政金融,2009,(5),150-159；
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[31]浜野洁、井奥成彦、中村宗悦、岸田真、永江雅和、牛岛利明著,彭曦、刘姝含、韩秋燕、唐帅译.日本经济史：1600-2000[M].南京：南京大学出版社,2010
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[35]凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论[M].北京：北京商务印书馆,1997.
[36]马克思.资本论[M].北京：人民出版社,1975.
[37]米尔顿.弗里德曼、安娜.雅各布森.施瓦茨著；雨珂译.大衰退,1929-1933(M].北京：中信出版社,2008
[38]乔纳森.安德森著,余江、黄志强译.走出神话：中国不会改变世界的七个理由[M].北京：中信出版社,2006.
[39]乔纳森.休斯、路易斯.凯恩著,邸晓燕、邢露等译.美国经济史—第7版[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2011
[40]口本经济数字地图：2010[M],北京：科学出版社,2010
[41]石宝峰、张慧卉译,海曼.明斯基著.稳定不稳定的经济——一种金融不稳定视角[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2010。
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[49]王小鲁,灰色收入与国民收入分配[R].中国经济体制改革研究会灰色收入课题研究报告,
2 新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典,第二本,P362
3 世界经济学大辞典,P433
1 杨栋梁著,《日本近现代经济史》,P375,世界知识出版社,北京,2010
1 井村喜代子著：《现代日本经济论》,有斐阁2001年版,P382
2 杨栋梁著,《日本近现代经济史》,P392,世界知识出版社,北京,2010
1 弗雷德里克.刘易斯.艾伦著,秦传安、姚杰译,《大繁荣时代》,P176，2009,新世界出版社
1 乔森纳.休斯、路易斯.P.凯恩著,邸晓燕、刑露译,《美国经济史》第七版[M],P471,2011,北京大学出版社
1 Romer Paul, Crazy Explanations for the Productivity Slowdown[R], NBER Macroeconnomics Annual,1987, P60
2 Gregory Mankiw, David Romer,Weil,A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth[J].The Quarterly of Journal of Economics, P413
1 王小鲁,灰色收入与国民收入分配,2008,中国经济体制改革研究会灰色收入课题研究报告,P39
1 而且此处居民可支配收入总额用的是统计局公布的抽样数据，并没有考虑收入的低估。
1 王小鲁,灰色收入与国民收入分配,2008,中国经济体制改革研究会灰色收入课题研究报告,P39
1 根据国务院总理温家宝在2013年3月5日在第十二届全国人民代表大会第一次会议上所做的政府工作报告,2012年底,城镇和农村人均居住面积分别为32.9平方米和37.1平方米。
1 孙旭,中国银行业——理财专题：利率市场化之趋势,但仍需关注风险敞口,P11,2013年1月8日
[1]Akerlof, George A. and Paul Romer. Looting:The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit[J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1993(2):1-73
[2]Bloom, D. E., and Finlay, J. E. Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Aisa[J]. Asia Economic Policy Review,2009 (4):45-64
[3]Corsetti, Ginancarlo, Paolo Pesenti, Nouriel Roubini, and Cedric Tille. Competitive Devaluation:Toward a Welfare-Based Approach[J]. Journal of International Economics,2000(6): 217-241
[4]Flood R.P. and Garber P. M. Gold Monetization and Gold Discipline[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1984 (1):90-107
[5]Flood R.P. and Garber P. M. Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes:Some Linear Examples[J]. Journal of International Economics,1984(14):1-13
[6]Flood R.P. and Garber P. M. Market Fundamentals versus Price-Level Bubbles:the First Tests[J]. Journal of Political Economy.1980(8):754-770
[7]Flood, R. P. and Garber, P. M. The Linkage between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1991 (106):1367-1372
[8]Froot, K. A. and Obstefeld, M. Exchange-Rate Dynamics under Stochastic Regime Shifts:A Unified Approach[J]. Journal of International Economics,1991 (31):203-229
[9]Froot, K. A. and Obstefeld, M. Stochastic Process Switching:Some Simple Solutions[J].Econometirca,1991 (59):241-250
[10]Gregory Mankiw, David Romer, Weil. A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth[J], The Quarterly of Journal of Economics,1992(2):407-437
[11]Krugman, Paul. A Model of Balance-of-Payment Crises[J]. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking,1979(11):311-325
[12]Krugman, Paul. Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics[J], Quarterly Journal of Economics,1991 (106):669-682
[13]Li, H. B., Zhang, J. and Zhang J. S. Effects of Longevity and Dependency Rates on Saving and Growth:Evidence from a Panel of Cross Countries[J], Journal of Development Economic, 2007 (1):138-154
[14]Wei, Z and Hao, R. Demographic Structure and Economic Growth:Evidence from China[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics,2010 (38):472-491
[15]蔡昉.人口转变、人口红利及经济增长的持续性[J].人口研究,2004(2)：2-9
[16]蔡昉、王美艳.“未富先老”对经济增长可持续性的挑战[J].宏观经济研究,2006(1)：6-]0
[17]崔友平.经济危机理论评述及借鉴[J].长沙：财经理论与实践,1999(9)：120-124
[18]胡鞍钢、刘生龙、马振国.人口老龄化、人口增长与经济增长——来自中国省际面板数据的实证证据[J],人口研究,2012(5)：14-26
[19]李军.人口老龄化条件下的经济平衡增长路径[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2003(8)：11-21
[20]王德文、蔡昉、张学辉.人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应[J].人口研究,2004(5)：2-11
[21]王小鲁、樊纲、刘鹏.中国经济增长方式转变和增长可持续性[J].经济研究,2009(1)：4-16
[22]吴有昌.货币危机的三代模型[J].世界经济,2000(3)：39-42
[23]杨溢.新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线理论的演变[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2012(2)：102-110
[24]杨溢.货币供应与通货膨胀的动态关系研究[J].经济理论与经济管理,2011(7)：67-75
[25]余永定.美国次贷危机：北京、原因与发展[J].北京：当代亚太,2008(5)：12-16
[26]袁鲲、段君山,信贷扩张、房地产泡沫与银行危机——基于国际比较和经验借鉴[J],财政金融,2009,(5),150-159；
[27]张斌.百年来国外主要经济金融危机分析[J].北京：中国金融,2007(19)
[28]Linda S. Goldberg, Michael W. Klein. Study Guide to Accompany Krugman/Obstfeld International Economics:Theory and Policy,3rd Ed[M]. Harper CollinsCollege Publishers,1994
[29]Paul Ryscavage. Income Inequality in America:An Analysis of Trend[M]. Pennsylvania:M.E. Sharpe,1998
[30]Romer, D. Advanced Marcoeconomics,2th edition[M]. New York:Mchraw-Hill,2001
[31]浜野洁、井奥成彦、中村宗悦、岸田真、永江雅和、牛岛利明著,彭曦、刘姝含、韩秋燕、唐帅译.日本经济史：1600-2000[M].南京：南京大学出版社,2010
[32]陈良壁.西蒙斯第的经济思想[M].上海：上海人民出版社,1975.
[33]陈福生、陈振骅译,萨伊著.政治经济学概论[M].北京：北京商务印书馆,1997.
[34]郭大力、王亚楠译,李嘉图著.政治经济学及赋税原理[M].北京：北京商务印书馆,1997.
[35]凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论[M].北京：北京商务印书馆,1997.
[36]马克思.资本论[M].北京：人民出版社,1975.
[37]米尔顿.弗里德曼、安娜.雅各布森.施瓦茨著；雨珂译.大衰退,1929-1933(M].北京：中信出版社,2008
[38]乔纳森.安德森著,余江、黄志强译.走出神话：中国不会改变世界的七个理由[M].北京：中信出版社,2006.
[39]乔纳森.休斯、路易斯.凯恩著,邸晓燕、邢露等译.美国经济史—第7版[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2011
[40]口本经济数字地图：2010[M],北京：科学出版社,2010
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