经济结构优化与可持续发展研究
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摘要
中国在充分认识改革开放以来所取得的巨大成绩,共享经济增长喜悦的同时,己经清醒地看到中国的自然环境和人文环境又为人类的生存与发展提出了新的挑战:人口数量急剧膨胀,文化素质较低;资源相对短缺,生态环境脆弱,环境质量日趋恶化;经济未完全走上提高效益的轨道;地区间经济发展差距在继续扩大,贫富分化加剧;工业化、城市化及现代化的不协调等,都将成为未来发展的障碍。然而中国遇到的不仅仅是发展的障碍,而且还遇到了创新的机遇,当发展的障碍和创新的机遇结合在一起时,我们首先要做的工作是反思现代工业文明,研究新挑战表现出来的新形式和新特点,研究如何才能使21世纪的中国从不可持续发展转向可持续发展、从大规模生态赤字转向大规模生态建设、从不断向环境透支与索取转向合理利用两种资源、从环境污染转向环境保护的文明与进步时代,其解决对策、价值取向和正确路径在哪里?
自然条件是无法选择的,发展模式却是可以选择的。从现在起,我们要果断地放弃先前那种不可持续发展模式,转向可持续发展模式。中国可持续发展模式的选择是既不同于发达国家的“重点在提高环境质量”的发展模式,也不同于其它发展中国家的“重点在经济发展兼顾环保”的发展模式。中国可持续发展模式的选择应当是在生态文明的框架下对经济形态、生产方式、生活方式的创新。换句话说,中国可持续发展模式是在生态文明的框架下,在经济创新、科技创新与制度创新相结合的基础上,建立的一个满足全社会人的全面发展需要的自然、环境、人口、经济、社会协调发展的具有中国特色的可持续发展模式。
影响可持续发展的因素众多,因此,本文的研究主要侧重于产业结构、资源、环境等主要社会经济结构优化与可持续发展的关系,其他结构由于篇幅有限而不能论及。经济结构调整与优化,主要是指对构成国民经济整体的各种经济成分和各种产业形式及其相互关系进行调整与优化,主要包括产业结构、城乡结构、地区结构、人力结构、所有制结构和消费结构等方面的调整和优化。其中产业结构调整在整个经济结构调整演变中起着主导作用,是经济结构调整的研究重点。狭义的经济结构调整可理解为产业结构的优化升级过程。可持续发展研究应从市、县区域作起,它是整个空间系统的一个单元,而且具有综合性,不同类型、不同发展阶段的区域有着不同的持续发展问题。“着眼于全球,着手于区域”己成为国内外可持续发展理论与实践的普适性原则,从宏观上指明了可持续发展目标实现的可操作性途径。因此,本文重点以廊坊市为例研究经济结构优化与可持续发展间的相关关系,运用数量方法对廊坊市可持续发展水平及能力进行评估,并在此基础上提出具有前瞻性和可操作性的基于经济结构优化的廊坊市可持续发展战略与对策。具体内容包括以下五部分:
第一部分:主要叙述研究背景、意义、研究的方法及技术路线、本研究的创新点等绪论部分和经济结构概念、经济结构优化内涵、可持续发展基本理论、经济结构优化与经济增长、可持续发展之间相关关系的基本理论。
第二部分:首先对国内外有关可持续发展评估指标体系、不同评价指标体系的优缺点及存在的问题进行认真分析,然后,构建切实可行的、适合廊坊市实际情况的可持续发展指标体系。
第三部分:廊坊市可持续发展综合实证分析:阐述并运用系统分析、多元统计方法中的主成分分析、层次分析和聚类分析等数量方法,借助统计分析软件SAS、Eveiws和SPSS对廊坊市及其他11市区的可持续发展状况进行了数量分析,在此基础上得出11市区的可持续发展水平评估综合排名,同时对廊坊市六县、两区、两市进行了聚类分析和综合评价;
第四部分:从可持续发展的视角,运用偏离份额法等计量方法对廊坊市现有的经济结构、优势产业等进行实证分析。目的是通过这些产业比较优势理论的分析,从经济结构调整的角度对未来廊坊市可持续发展找出理论依据。
第五部分:提出了基于经济结构优化的可持续发展战略与对策。提出适合廊坊市可持续发展的经济结构调整对策,社会进步、资源环境系统及其人力资源开发等具有可操作性的战略与对策,这是本论文的最终落脚点。
China has obtained the huge result in economy since the reform and opening policy, when people share the great result in economy joyfully, they obviously saw that the natural environment and the humanities environment proposed new challenge for humanity's survival and the development. For example, the population quantity suddenly inflates and the cultural quality is comparatively low; the resources is relatively short, the ecological environment is frail, the environment quality worsens day by day; the economy has not yet completely stepped onto the track which can enhance the benefit; the economical development disparity is continuing to expand between the areas, the rich and the poor intensifies; the industrialization, the urbanization and the modernization are uncoordinated and so on, these problems will become the barrier for the future development. However China has met not merely the development barrier, also the innovation opportunity. when the development barrier and the innovation opportunity unifies together, we first must do is that we should reconsider the modern industry civilization, study new form and new characteristic which the new challenge displays, and study China in 21 century how can transform from not sustainable development to the sustainable development, from the large-scale ecology deficit to the large-scale ecology construction, from unceasingly overdraws to the environment with demands to reasonably uses two kind of resources, from the environmental pollution to the environmental protection and steps into the civilization and the progressive time. Which are its solutions and policies, value orientation and correct way?
The natural condition is unable to choose, yet the development pattern can choose. From now on, we must have decisively to give up the kind of not sustainable development pattern we used formerly and use the sustainable development pattern. The choice of Chinese sustainable development pattern is different with the developed country’s development pattern, which key in improving the environment quality, also different with other developing nations’development pattern, which key in both the economical development and environmental protection. The choice of Chinese sustainable development pattern must be a innovation among the economic form, the production method and the life style under the ecology civilization frame In other words, the Chinese sustainable development pattern is under the ecology civilization frame, based on the union of the economical innovation, the technical innovation and the system innovation, establishment the nature, the environment, the population, the economy, the society coordinated development which satisfies the whole society’s development which has the Chinese characteristic .
The factors that affects the sustainable development are multitudinous, therefore, the research of this article mainly stresses on the industrial structure, the social system, the population, the resources, the environment and so on the main social economy system and the sustainable development relations, other structures cannot be concerned limited to the length. The readjustment of the economic structure is mainly refers to carry the adjustment between each economic sector that constitutes the whole national economy and each industrial form and their relations. The adjustments mainly include industrial structure, city and countryside structure, local structure, system of ownership structure and consumption pattern adjustment, between them , industrial structure adjustment play an important role in the entire readjustment and evolvement of the economic structure, and it is the key point in the readjustment of the economic structure research. The narrow sense of the economic structure readjustment may be understood for optimized promotion process of the industrial structure.
We should do the research on the sustainable development from the city and the county, because it is an unit of the whole space systems, and moreover it is comprehensive. The region which has the different type and the different development phases has the different problem of sustainable development.“Focusing on the whole world and beginning with the region”becomes a general principle of sustainable development in theory and the practice on the global, and it offers an operational way that realizes the sustainable development goal from the macroscopic aspect. Therefore, the article plays an important on the correlation between the economic structure optimization and the sustainable development based on the city of Langfang and carries on the appraisal of the sustainable development level and the ability using the quantity method, and on the foundation proposes sustainable developmental strategy and the countermeasure strategy which is foresighted and operational based on the economic structure optimization for Langfang. The content includes five parts as following:
The first part: the main content includes the introduction part and some basic theory. The introduction part contains background and the significance of the research, the method and the technical route of the research, and the innovation and so on. And the basic theory contains the concept of economic structure, the connotation of economic structure optimization, the elementary theory of sustainable development and the basic theory of the correlation among the economic structure optimization, the economy growth and the sustainable development.
The second part: Firstly it finds out the appraisal index system of the sustainable development in the domestic and foreign and carries on the earnest analysis for the good points and shortcoming of the different appraisal index system, then constructs the index system of sustainable development which is practically feasible and suitable for Langfang.
The third part: the main content of this part is the comprehensive appraisal analysis of the sustainable development. Firstly it elaborates and use the quantity method of the system analysis and multi-statistical method such as the principal components analysis, the level analysis and the cluster analysis and so on, then carries on the quantity analysis of the sustainable development for Langfang and other 11 cities of Hebei province with the help of the statistical analysis software such as SAS, Eviews and SPSS, and based on the result gets the appraisal synthesis rate of the sustainable development level of the 11 cities, simultaneously take the cluster analysis and the synthesis appraisal on six counties, two areas and two cities of Langfang.
The fourth part: using the shiftshare method it carries on the appraisal analysis of the existing economic structure, the superiority industry for Langfang from the view of the sustainable development. Through the analysis of these industrial comparison superiority theories, the goal is to discover the theory basis for the sustainable development of Langfang from the readjustment point of the economic structure.
The fifth part: Proposing the sustainable development strategy and the countermeasure based on the economic structure optimization, the readjustment strategy of the economic structure suitable for the sustainable development of Langfang, and the operational strategy and the countermeasure for the society progresses, the resources and environment system and the human resources development and these are the core point of the article.
自然条件是无法选择的,发展模式却是可以选择的。从现在起,我们要果断地放弃先前那种不可持续发展模式,转向可持续发展模式。中国可持续发展模式的选择是既不同于发达国家的“重点在提高环境质量”的发展模式,也不同于其它发展中国家的“重点在经济发展兼顾环保”的发展模式。中国可持续发展模式的选择应当是在生态文明的框架下对经济形态、生产方式、生活方式的创新。换句话说,中国可持续发展模式是在生态文明的框架下,在经济创新、科技创新与制度创新相结合的基础上,建立的一个满足全社会人的全面发展需要的自然、环境、人口、经济、社会协调发展的具有中国特色的可持续发展模式。
影响可持续发展的因素众多,因此,本文的研究主要侧重于产业结构、资源、环境等主要社会经济结构优化与可持续发展的关系,其他结构由于篇幅有限而不能论及。经济结构调整与优化,主要是指对构成国民经济整体的各种经济成分和各种产业形式及其相互关系进行调整与优化,主要包括产业结构、城乡结构、地区结构、人力结构、所有制结构和消费结构等方面的调整和优化。其中产业结构调整在整个经济结构调整演变中起着主导作用,是经济结构调整的研究重点。狭义的经济结构调整可理解为产业结构的优化升级过程。可持续发展研究应从市、县区域作起,它是整个空间系统的一个单元,而且具有综合性,不同类型、不同发展阶段的区域有着不同的持续发展问题。“着眼于全球,着手于区域”己成为国内外可持续发展理论与实践的普适性原则,从宏观上指明了可持续发展目标实现的可操作性途径。因此,本文重点以廊坊市为例研究经济结构优化与可持续发展间的相关关系,运用数量方法对廊坊市可持续发展水平及能力进行评估,并在此基础上提出具有前瞻性和可操作性的基于经济结构优化的廊坊市可持续发展战略与对策。具体内容包括以下五部分:
第一部分:主要叙述研究背景、意义、研究的方法及技术路线、本研究的创新点等绪论部分和经济结构概念、经济结构优化内涵、可持续发展基本理论、经济结构优化与经济增长、可持续发展之间相关关系的基本理论。
第二部分:首先对国内外有关可持续发展评估指标体系、不同评价指标体系的优缺点及存在的问题进行认真分析,然后,构建切实可行的、适合廊坊市实际情况的可持续发展指标体系。
第三部分:廊坊市可持续发展综合实证分析:阐述并运用系统分析、多元统计方法中的主成分分析、层次分析和聚类分析等数量方法,借助统计分析软件SAS、Eveiws和SPSS对廊坊市及其他11市区的可持续发展状况进行了数量分析,在此基础上得出11市区的可持续发展水平评估综合排名,同时对廊坊市六县、两区、两市进行了聚类分析和综合评价;
第四部分:从可持续发展的视角,运用偏离份额法等计量方法对廊坊市现有的经济结构、优势产业等进行实证分析。目的是通过这些产业比较优势理论的分析,从经济结构调整的角度对未来廊坊市可持续发展找出理论依据。
第五部分:提出了基于经济结构优化的可持续发展战略与对策。提出适合廊坊市可持续发展的经济结构调整对策,社会进步、资源环境系统及其人力资源开发等具有可操作性的战略与对策,这是本论文的最终落脚点。
China has obtained the huge result in economy since the reform and opening policy, when people share the great result in economy joyfully, they obviously saw that the natural environment and the humanities environment proposed new challenge for humanity's survival and the development. For example, the population quantity suddenly inflates and the cultural quality is comparatively low; the resources is relatively short, the ecological environment is frail, the environment quality worsens day by day; the economy has not yet completely stepped onto the track which can enhance the benefit; the economical development disparity is continuing to expand between the areas, the rich and the poor intensifies; the industrialization, the urbanization and the modernization are uncoordinated and so on, these problems will become the barrier for the future development. However China has met not merely the development barrier, also the innovation opportunity. when the development barrier and the innovation opportunity unifies together, we first must do is that we should reconsider the modern industry civilization, study new form and new characteristic which the new challenge displays, and study China in 21 century how can transform from not sustainable development to the sustainable development, from the large-scale ecology deficit to the large-scale ecology construction, from unceasingly overdraws to the environment with demands to reasonably uses two kind of resources, from the environmental pollution to the environmental protection and steps into the civilization and the progressive time. Which are its solutions and policies, value orientation and correct way?
The natural condition is unable to choose, yet the development pattern can choose. From now on, we must have decisively to give up the kind of not sustainable development pattern we used formerly and use the sustainable development pattern. The choice of Chinese sustainable development pattern is different with the developed country’s development pattern, which key in improving the environment quality, also different with other developing nations’development pattern, which key in both the economical development and environmental protection. The choice of Chinese sustainable development pattern must be a innovation among the economic form, the production method and the life style under the ecology civilization frame In other words, the Chinese sustainable development pattern is under the ecology civilization frame, based on the union of the economical innovation, the technical innovation and the system innovation, establishment the nature, the environment, the population, the economy, the society coordinated development which satisfies the whole society’s development which has the Chinese characteristic .
The factors that affects the sustainable development are multitudinous, therefore, the research of this article mainly stresses on the industrial structure, the social system, the population, the resources, the environment and so on the main social economy system and the sustainable development relations, other structures cannot be concerned limited to the length. The readjustment of the economic structure is mainly refers to carry the adjustment between each economic sector that constitutes the whole national economy and each industrial form and their relations. The adjustments mainly include industrial structure, city and countryside structure, local structure, system of ownership structure and consumption pattern adjustment, between them , industrial structure adjustment play an important role in the entire readjustment and evolvement of the economic structure, and it is the key point in the readjustment of the economic structure research. The narrow sense of the economic structure readjustment may be understood for optimized promotion process of the industrial structure.
We should do the research on the sustainable development from the city and the county, because it is an unit of the whole space systems, and moreover it is comprehensive. The region which has the different type and the different development phases has the different problem of sustainable development.“Focusing on the whole world and beginning with the region”becomes a general principle of sustainable development in theory and the practice on the global, and it offers an operational way that realizes the sustainable development goal from the macroscopic aspect. Therefore, the article plays an important on the correlation between the economic structure optimization and the sustainable development based on the city of Langfang and carries on the appraisal of the sustainable development level and the ability using the quantity method, and on the foundation proposes sustainable developmental strategy and the countermeasure strategy which is foresighted and operational based on the economic structure optimization for Langfang. The content includes five parts as following:
The first part: the main content includes the introduction part and some basic theory. The introduction part contains background and the significance of the research, the method and the technical route of the research, and the innovation and so on. And the basic theory contains the concept of economic structure, the connotation of economic structure optimization, the elementary theory of sustainable development and the basic theory of the correlation among the economic structure optimization, the economy growth and the sustainable development.
The second part: Firstly it finds out the appraisal index system of the sustainable development in the domestic and foreign and carries on the earnest analysis for the good points and shortcoming of the different appraisal index system, then constructs the index system of sustainable development which is practically feasible and suitable for Langfang.
The third part: the main content of this part is the comprehensive appraisal analysis of the sustainable development. Firstly it elaborates and use the quantity method of the system analysis and multi-statistical method such as the principal components analysis, the level analysis and the cluster analysis and so on, then carries on the quantity analysis of the sustainable development for Langfang and other 11 cities of Hebei province with the help of the statistical analysis software such as SAS, Eviews and SPSS, and based on the result gets the appraisal synthesis rate of the sustainable development level of the 11 cities, simultaneously take the cluster analysis and the synthesis appraisal on six counties, two areas and two cities of Langfang.
The fourth part: using the shiftshare method it carries on the appraisal analysis of the existing economic structure, the superiority industry for Langfang from the view of the sustainable development. Through the analysis of these industrial comparison superiority theories, the goal is to discover the theory basis for the sustainable development of Langfang from the readjustment point of the economic structure.
The fifth part: Proposing the sustainable development strategy and the countermeasure based on the economic structure optimization, the readjustment strategy of the economic structure suitable for the sustainable development of Langfang, and the operational strategy and the countermeasure for the society progresses, the resources and environment system and the human resources development and these are the core point of the article.
引文
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